671
FXUS65 KBOU 110035
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
635 PM MDT Thu Jul 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers/thunderstorms early this evening with gusty
winds 30-65 mph.

- Scattered to likely late day showers and thunderstorms Friday
and Saturday.

- Drier Sunday and Monday with scattered showers and thunderstorms
mainly in the mountains.

- Scattered to likely late day showers and thunderstorms return
Tuesday through Thursday for much of the CWA with temperatures
below seasonal normals.

&&

.DISCUSSION /Through Thursday/...
Issued at 242 PM MDT Thu Jul 10 2025

Convection is developing across the CWA this afternoon. Radar and
observations are showing outflow winds from the storms were
gusting up to 65 mph. Earlier this morning, a gust to 70 mph was
recorded at DIA at 1010Z.

Concerning the convection for the rest of this afternoon and
evening, models, including the CAMs, are all indicating scattered
coverage for much of the CWA, but only through this evening; no
later than 02Z.

There will be weak northwesterly flow aloft Friday into Saturday
with a weak upper trough developing just east of Colorado Saturday
mid day. Models continue to show decent CAPE. Progged precipitable
water values continue to be over 1.00 inch for the eastern 2/3rds
of the CWA Friday through Saturday night. The best rainfall
amounts on the QPF grids are progged for late day Friday, less
late day Saturday. Temperatures are below seasonal normals both
Friday and Saturday.

On Sunday, the upper ridge builds in from the west and the
airmass dries out a bit with temperatures getting above seasonal
normals. Pops will be pretty low and confined to the mountains and
higher foothills. The plains look to have poor instability with
low CAPE and a mid level cap in place.

For the later days, Monday through Thursday, the upper ridge is
around on Monday with temperatures to stay above normal.  There is
weak upper troughing Monday evening into Tuesday with a decent cold
front to move down across the CWA. Flat upper ridging is progged
on Wednesday and Thursday with the below normal temperatures to
continue. For pops, Monday is the driest day, with scattered
convection relegated to just the mountains. Late day convection
and precipitation are pretty decent Tuesday through Thursday, with
Wednesday having the highest pops.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday/...
Issued at 631 PM MDT Thu Jul 10 2025

VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. However, smoke
from fires in the west could cause slant-range visibility issues,
especially during sunset this evening and sunrise tomorrow
morning. Scattered showers/thunderstorms will prevail through
01Z, although there is a chance (<30%) for an isolated shower for
all TAF sites between 02Z and 04Z. A strong outflow boundary from
storms in the north will bring gusty northerly winds by 00Z, which
should stick around before winds turn to drainage by around
04Z/05Z.

Tomorrow, thunderstorms are possible as early as 19Z for BJC and
20Z for APA and DIA with VRB wind gusts up to 40 kts. A PROB30 has
been introduced into the TAF.


&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for COZ214.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...rjk
AVIATION...Ideker