000
FXUS65 KBOU 230918
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
318 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 318 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

BROAD UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL COLORADO BUT WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING MOISTURE PLUME BEGINNING TO WORK NORTH AND
NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT
NORTHEAST ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS . TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOUT
THE SAME AS YESTERDAY. MODELS INDICATE SOME SLIGHT WARMING AT LOW
LEVELS BUT MORE CLOUD COVER MAY OFFSET THE WARMING...YIELDING MID
90S OVER THE PLAINS.

OVERNIGHT STORMS OVER THE DAKOTAS AND NEBRASKA HAS RESULTED IN
NEW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS OF COLORADO EARLY
THIS MORNING. THIS WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WITH HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS. CURRENT FORECASTS ALREADY HAVE THIS COVERED. HIGHER
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM IN ON EAST TO SOUTHEAST LOW
LEVEL FLOW. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING STRATUS/PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS AND EVEN AS FAR WEST AS NORTHERN
LARIMER COUNTY. THERE IS A WEAK DENVER CYCLONE... HOWEVER EXPECT
MUCH OF THE STRATUS TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE DENVER AREA GIVEN THE
STRONGER...DRIER SOUTHWEST WINDS. GIVEN THE HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS
THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT MORE STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE FRONT
RANGE AND ADJACENT PLAINS. LOW LEVELS WILL MIX OUT SO EXPECT GUSTY
WINDS AND SOME RAIN WITH THE STORMS. AS LIKE THIS PAST NIGHT MAY
EXPECT THE NORTHEAST PLAINS TO BE VULNERABLE TO ADDITIONAL STORMS
MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM WYOMING AND NEBRASKA.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

A PLUME OF INCREASED MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO COLORADO
FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THURSDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE
FLATTENING SOME WHILE THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN BORDER
WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN. LOOK FOR SIMILAR TO SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES ELSEWHERE. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE HIGH
COUNTRY WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY WITH ADDED MOISTURE...WHILE
OVER THE PLAINS THE STORMS WILL LIKELY START SEMI-DRY WITH
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING INVERTED V PROFILES. THEN AS THE
MOISTURE PLUME MOVES OVERHEAD AND A WEAK FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...LOOK FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE PLAINS
THROUGH THE EVENING.

THE RIDGE WILL BE PUSHED EVEN FARTHER SOUTH AND FLATTEN OUT FRIDAY AS
A SYSTEM IS MOVING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. MOST OF THE
MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME WILL ALSO PUSH SOUTH BUT WILL STILL SEE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO THURSDAY. WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
SINKING SOUTH AND HIGHER PRESSURE STARTING TO PUSH IN FROM THE
NORTH...SLIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW WILL OCCUR...STARTING THE CONVECTION
AGAINST THE FRONT RANGE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. ANOTHER INVERTED
V SOUNDING DAY IS MODELED...SO LOOK LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAINFALL...ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS OVER THE PLAINS.

THE SYSTEM PASSING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL MOVE INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION SATURDAY...PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
STATE. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY STILL GET INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S
SATURDAY BEFORE THE BETTER COOLING COMES SUNDAY WITH HIGHS
EXPECTED IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE PUSHED
INTO SOUTHERN COLORADO WITH LESS CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN
NORTHEASTERN COLORADO.

HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE GREAT PLAINS MONDAY TO KEEP
UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE PLAINS AND KEEP TEMPERATURES MODERATED WHILE
THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK NORTH. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS
ARE BOTH SHOWING A RIPPLE MOVING OVER THE RIDGE MONDAY NIGHT TO
PUSH OVER NORTHEASTERN COLORADO TUESDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN
PRECIPITATION AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 318 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

WEAK DENVER CYCLONE REMAINS IN PLACE WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AT
APA/DEN WHILE BJC STILL UNDER NORTHWEST WINDS. THIS PATTERN
EXPECTED TO BREAK DOWN BY MIDDAY AS STRONGER SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS DEVELOP AT ALL TERMINALS. STATUS IS DEVELOPING OVER LARIMER
COUNTY BUT FOR NOW EXPECTED TO STAY NORTH OF THE TERMINALS.  SLIGHTLY
BETTER CHANCE FOR STORMS TODAY WITH HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS. WILL
CONSIDER IF COVERAGE WILL BE ENOUGH FOR A PROB/TEMPO CATEGORY.
MOST LIKELY IT WOULD BE FOR OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM...KRIEDERMAN
AVIATION...ENTREKIN