000
FXUS65 KBOU 160233
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
833 PM MDT SAT JUN 15 2013

.UPDATE...


&&

.SHORT TERM...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS STILL ONGOING OVER THE
FAR EASTERN PLAINS. A LITTLE LULL IN THE ACTION ATTM BUT LOOKS
LIKE THERE WILL BE STILL SOME STORM MERGERS AND ADDITIONAL
STORMS...BUT MAINLY NON SEVERE.  CURRENT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH EXPIRES UNTIL 9 PM LOCAL TIME IN THIS SHOULD BE OK AND PLAN
IS TO LET IT EXPIRE. FURTHER WEST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...ONLY
SOME WEAK ISOLATED ACTIVITY AND NOT EXPECTED TO AMOUNT TO MUCH
EXCEPT BRIEF RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. LATEST MODELS SHOWING VARYING
AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNING WITH AREAS OF CLOUDS/FOG
ON THE PLAINS. WILL AT LEAST ADD SOME TO THE GRIDS...ESPECIALLY
NORTH AND EAST OF DENVER.

.AVIATION...OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS BEEN PUSHING WESTWARD THROUGH
TERMINALS WITH EASTERLY FLOW MOVING BACK TOWARDS THE FOOTHILLS.
WINDS AT APA/DEN WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SE AND SOUTH LATER TONIGHT.
UNCLEAR HOW MUCH CLOUDS/FOG MAY RETURN LATER TONIGHT BUT EXPECT
MOST OF IT TO BE EAST OF TERMINALS. SHOWER THREAT APPEARS TO HAVE
ENDED FOR THE NIGHT AND HAVE REMOVED ANY MENTION FOR TERMINALS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 PM MDT SAT JUN 15 2013/

SHORT TERM...MAIN CONCERN IS SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL THROUGH
THIS EVENING OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
ALREADY ISSUED FOR LOCATIONS ON THE PLAINS...MAINLY EAST OF THE
DENVER AREA. CONVECTION ALREADY FIRED OVER HIGH TERRAIN OF PALMER
DIVIDE. LAPS SURFACE BASED CAPES UP TO 2000J/KG IN THE WATCH AREA
SO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREATS. FURTHER WEST OF
THE DENVER AREA...AIRMASS NOT QUITE AS MOIST SO MAINLY BRIEF RAIN
AND GUSTY WINDS WITH THE STORMS.

FOR SUNDAY...AIRMASS WILL BE A LITTLE DRIER AND WARMER BUT STILL
ISOLATED COVERAGE OF STORMS OVER MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS. MOISTURE
DEEPER OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE
STORMS THERE.

LONG TERM...SOME STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY EVENING...MAINLY
FAR EASTERN PLAINS WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL PERSIST. A
FEW STORMS COULD REACH SEVERE LIMITS FAR NORTHEAST CORNER WITH
CAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG AND FAIRLY DECENT SHEAR. LARGE HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS ALONG WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAIN.
ELSEWHERE...STORMS TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND LIMITED RAINFALL.
THE STORMS TO EXIT THE AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT...THOUGH A FEW STORMS
COULD LINGER OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS. ON
MONDAY...WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO CONTINUE. MODELS SHOW COLD FRONT
MOVING INTO THE NORTHEAST PLAINS EARLY MONDAY MORNING...WITH
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE. DECENT SHEAR PROFILE
DEVELOPS BY THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...MODELS ALSO SHOWING A MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON...AS
NOTED BY QG VERTICAL VELOCITY PROGS. SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S
ACROSS THE PLAINS TO GENERATE CAPES 1500-2000 J/KG. BUT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME CIN AS WELL AS A MID LEVEL CAP WHICH COULD
LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS. THE PASSING SHORTWAVE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO BREAK CAP. WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE POPS FOR
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SOME STORMS COULD LINGER
OVERNIGHT...MAINLY FAR EASTERN PLAINS. FOR TUESDAY...UPPER RIDGE
BEGINS TO BUILD OVER AREA WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR. STILL ENOUGH
MOISTURE FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FAR EASTERN PLAINS WHERE THE BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
RESIDE. ON WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER
THE AREA WITH THE AXIS ACROSS EASTERN PLAINS. AIRMASS TO BECOME
DRIER AND SLIGHTLY WARMER. ENOUGH MOISTURE FAR EASTERN PLAINS FOR
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE DAY STORMS.

FOR THE LATER DAYS...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: RIDGE SHIFTS INTO
CENTRAL PLAINS WITH UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO NORTHERN GREAT BASIN.
FLOW ALOFT TO BECOME SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE STATE...WITH A DRIER AND
WARMER AIRMASS OVER THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WIND COULD ALSO
INCREASE WHICH COULD ELEVATE THE FIRE DANGER. MODELS SHOW SOME MID
LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING INTO COLORADO SATURDAY...ENOUGH FOR A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

AVIATION...INITIAL STORMS SO FAR ANCHORED ON HIGHER TERRAIN SOUTH
OF DENVER SO MOSTLY OUTFLOW GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED WITH STORMS. WEAK
STORMS OVER DENVER HAVE BEEN DISSIPATING AS AIRMASS IS STILL
WEAKLY CAPPED.

HYDROLOGY...STORMS MOVING AT A GOOD CLIP SO PROLONGED HEAVY RAIN
NOT EXPECTED WITH STORMS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM....D-L
AVIATION...ENTREKIN