Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 252143
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
343 PM MDT MON APR 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM MDT MON APR 25 2016

UPPER LOW IN WESTERN UTAH WILL MOVE TO WESTERN COLORADO OVERNIGHT
THEN TO THE FRONT RANGE OF COLORADO TOMORROW. THE SURFACE LOW WILL
INTENSIFY IN EASTERN COLORADO TOMORROW MORNING...THEN MOVE TO
WESTERN KANSAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING...AND SOME WILL
SPILL TO THE PLAINS.

ON TUESDAY WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE UPPER
LOW...SEVERAL MODELS SHOWED A RATHER SIGNIFICANT DRY SLOT IN
EASTERN COLORADO...THIS LOOKED QUITE REASONABLE...AND I LOWERED
POPS NEAR THE PUEBLO CWA...WHILE KEEPING THEM SCATTERED TO LIKELY
ALONG THE WYOMING BORDER. ONLY MENTIONED THUNDERSTORMS IN FAR
NORTHEAST COLORADO PER THE SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK. THE COLD FRONT WILL
DROP ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO IN THE WAKE OF THE SURFACE LOW.
EXPECT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM MDT MON APR 25 2016

A VERY ACTIVE STORM TRACK PATTERN IN STORE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...AND EVEN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THOUGH MODELS AND THEIR
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DIFFER ON THE SMALLER DETAILS...THE GENERAL
CONSENSUS IS FOR AT LEAST THREE LARGE SCALE UPPER AIR SYSTEMS TO
SPIN UP OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND/OR DESERT SOUTHWEST AND THEN SLOWLY
TRACK EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION
DURING THE PERIOD. THIS FIRST OF THESE CLOSED LOW SYSTEMS IS
ACCOMPANIED BY A COLD FRONT WHICH MODELS DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF
WYOMING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BY EVENING...MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LOW
OVER THE NERN CORNER OF THE STATE PLACING MOST OF THE CWA UNDER A
STIFF NWLY FLOW...CONSEQUENTLY SUPPRESSING SHOWER ACTIVITY ON THE
PLAINS...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE FRONT RANGE...BUT NOT ENTIRELY.
WETBULB TEMPS LOWER ENOUGH FOR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ON THE PLAINS
MAINLY WITHIN THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND PALMER DIVIDE. COULD SEE LIGHT
ACCUM ON THE DIVIDE NOT MOSTLY LIKELY NOTHING AT ELEVATIONS BELOW
5500 FEET.  ON WEDNESDAY...UPPER LOW LIFTS OUT AND A SHORTWAVE UPPER
RIDGE WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR PASSES OVERHEAD. STILL NOT OUT OF THE
REACH OF THE UPPER LOW SO GUSTY NWLY WINDS A GOOD BET FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY ON THE PLAINS AND NRN FRONT RANGE. TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY
GENERALLY 1-2 DEG C LOWER THAN THE DAY BELOW.

THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM THAT THE GFS...ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS SHOW
SPINNING UP OVER THE LOWER GREAT BASIN EARLY ON THURSDAY TRACKS
NEWRD ACRS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION ON FRIDAY AND COLORADO AND
WYOMING ON SATURDAY. STRENGTHENING SWLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM
PUMPS ANOTHER DEEP FETCH OF MOISTURE UP INTO THE REGION AND
INCREASING MID-LEVEL DIVERGENCE PRIMES THE PUMP FOR THE NEXT ROUND
OF EXTENSIVE SHOWERS ACRS THE REGION. DO NOT SEE T-STORM DEVELOPMENT
THIS GO ROUND...BUT THERE`S A POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY UPSLOPE
PRECIP OVER AND ALONG THE FRONT RANGE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
WETBULB ZERO LEVEL DIFFERS QUITE A BIT FROM MODEL-TO-MODEL. SO
PINNING DOWN THE SNOW-LEVEL MAY NOT BE DETERMINED FOR ANOTHER DAY OR
TWO. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH HIGH SCATTERED POPS MTNS AND PLAINS. FOR
NOW SNOW IN THE HIGH COUNTRY...MAINLY RAIN ON THE PLAINS DURING THE
DAY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AND A RAIN/SNOW MIX FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. BY SUNDAY...MODELS SHOW YET ANOTHER CLOSED UPPER LOW
PASSING THROUGH THE REGION. DETAILS ARE SKETCHY...BUT A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS LOOK REASONABLE FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 324 PM MDT MON APR 25 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING...THEN IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL DRY OUT
AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. A COOL FRONT WILL DROP
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING
ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RTG
LONG TERM...BAKER
AVIATION...RTG


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