Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 190206
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
806 PM MDT MON JUL 18 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 806 PM MDT Mon Jul 18 2016

Isolated showers and thunderstorms will remain possible along the
Front Range through the evening due to a moist airmass and weak
instability. Most of the storms have shifted over the northeast
part of the state. Stronger storms will be possible here through
mid to late evening where instability is better. Most of the
stronger storms have generally been producing up to 50 mph winds,
heavy rain, and small hail. Just a slight chance for convection
after midnight over the eastern plains and higher terrain.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 135 PM MDT Mon Jul 18 2016

An upper level ridge over the central Great Plains will allow for
a nice fetch of subtropical moisture to remain over the cwa
through Tuesday. precipitable water values will be over one inch
this evening. 100 mb mix layer capes this aftn range from around
1500 j/kg along the Urban Corridor to close to 3000 j/kg over the
far northeast corner of the cwa. Plenty of moisture and aftn
instability for a nice round of showers/tstms through this
evening. The models still show a weak embedded disturbance
passing across northern CO this evening. Storm motions in the
10-20kt range so far this aftn which may help offset the potential
for flooding rainfall. No flash flood watch but will continue the
mention of heavy rain in the zones. Could see tstms linger over
the far northeast plains overnight. In addition...will include
patchy fog around 12z Tuesday...north and east of Denver. On
Tuesday...the upper ridge will remain parked over KS/OK with a
weaker south/southwesterly flow aloft over CO. As a result...
subtropical moisture fetch will continue to advect across western
and northern CO...with sct to numerous tstms redeveloping across
the region by the aftn.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 135 PM MDT Mon Jul 18 2016

The upper level ridge will be centered over the south-central US
on Wednesday. This will bring SW flow over the region keeping
moisture high through the week. Afternoon thunderstorms will occur
in the mountains and foothills later in the afternoon and evening.
At this time models are showing a deepening sfc low on the plains
that is helping to move drier southerly flow onto the far eastern
plains keeping it dry. Storms will most likely stay closer to the
foothills with the eastern plans capped. The main threats will be
heavy rain, lightning and possible small hail. Temperatures for
Wednesday will be in the mid 90s.

On Thursday the ridge begins to build back in and elongates over
the southern portion of the US. Typically this will cut off a
great deal of the moisture moving up from the SW. However...enough
moisture is able to make it under the ridge and bring a slight
chance of afternoon thunderstorms to the mountains and foothills
then later in the evening on the plains after enough
destabilization occurs. Temperatures will continue to be above
average for the latter half of the week with highs in the lower to
mid 90s Thursday and Friday.

For the weekend a shortwave trough will move through with an
accompanying cold front. This will turn surface winds to a more
upslope easterly flow Saturday afternoon bringing increased
moisture and an enhanced vertical shear profile to initiate
strong storms during the afternoon. Conditions once again look
capped on the plains. Picture is similar for Sunday and Monday with
a chance of afternoon and evening thunderstorms. Temperatures for
the weekend will be slightly cooler behind the front with highs in
the 80s before a warm up back into the 90s for Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 806 PM MDT Mon Jul 18 2016

There is a slight chance for another thunderstorm at the Denver
airports through 06z. Any shower or storm will be short lived.
More thunderstorms are expected for the Denver airports Tuesday
20z to 03z. The main threat with these storms will be gusty
outflow winds and heavy rain.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 135 PM MDT Mon Jul 18 2016

High precipitable water values over one inch coupled with CAPES
ranging from 1500-3000 J/kg late this aftn and evening. Should
allow for sct to numerous tstms through this evening. Storm
motions fairly good, in the 15-20kt range. This should help to
lessen the flash flood threat in spite of the otherwise very moist
conditions. No Flash Flood Watch but localized flooding still a
good possibility. Wl keep the mention of heavy rain in the
grids...with 1-2 inch/hr rainfall rates with the stronger storms.
Moist SW flow continues through mid week with PW values around 1
inch into Friday. Storms will continue to be capable of heavy rain
that could cause localized flooding.

&&

.BOU Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Meier
SHORT TERM...Cooper
LONG TERM...Bowen
AVIATION...Meier
HYDROLOGY...Bowen/Cooper


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