Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 060311
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
811 PM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 802 PM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

NO UPDATES PLANNED FOR THE GRIDS THIS EVENING...CURRENT FORECAST
LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

SATELLITE PICTURES ARE SHOWING SOME UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS MOVING
SOUTHWARD INTO THE CWA IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. MODELS SHOW
THE STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT. IT BECOMES
NEAR ZONAL BY SATURDAY LATE AFTERNOON AT SPEEDS AROUND 60 KNOTS.
THERE IS PRETTY STRONG DOWNWARD SYNOPTIC SCALE ENERGY OVER THE
CWA TONIGHT...THEN WEAK DOWNWARD SATURDAY. THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
WILL BE NORMAL DRAINAGE WITH SOME DOWNSLOPING OVERNIGHT...THEN
SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPING ON SATURDAY. FOR MOISTURE...IT IS QUITE
LIMITED TO JUST SOME...MOSTLY...IN THE UPPER LEVEL...MORE SO BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE QPF FIELDS HAVE NOTHING FOR THE CWA THE
FIRST TWO PERIODS. NO POPS. CROSS SECTION DO SHOW A BIT OF
MOUNTAIN WAVE SET UP TONIGHT. WINDS DO NOT LOOK LIKE THEY REACH
SPEED CRITERIA IN THE MOST FAVORED AREAS. FOR TEMPERATURES
...SATURDAY`S HIGHS ARE 5-7 C WARMER THAN TODAY`S HIGHS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 150 PM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

ON SATURDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...WITH A 90+ JET NOSING INTO NORTHERN
COLORADO. THIS PATTERN WILL PRODUCE WINDY CONDITIONS FROM THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE HIGHER FOOTHILLS. THESE AREAS
COULD SEE GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH...WHICH IS JUST BELOW HIGH WIND
CRITERIA. THE STRONG WINDS COMBINED WITH RECENT SNOW SHOULD
PRODUCE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. IN ADDITION...THERE MAY JUST BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE AVAILABLE WITH THIS SYSTEM TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

ON SUNDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
STATES...WITH A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER NORTHEASTERN
COLORADO. SOME MIXING OF THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT COMBINED A STRONG
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL PRODUCE WINDY
CONDITIONS ON THE NORTHEAST PLAINS. WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF
THE STATE.

WARMER TEMPERATURES AND LESS WIND ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY AS THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE MIDWESTERN STATES AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WEST. DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION.
GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S IN DENVER ON
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...WITH STILL PLENTY OF SNOW COVER ON THE
GROUND...TEMPERATURES SHOULD PROBABLY NOT GET THAT WARM.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL DOWN A FEW DEGREES ON THURSDAY AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 802 PM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLIES SHOULD PREVAIL ON
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AT KDEN AND KAPA. ONCL GUSTY WLY WINDS TO 20
KTS PSBL AT KBJC.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...COOPER
SHORT TERM...RJK
LONG TERM...KALINA
AVIATION...COOPER



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