Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 181629
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1029 AM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 916 AM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

UPPER LOW SPINNING ITS WAY ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO ATTM
WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE MID AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS APPROACHING THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTH. NAMNEST IR SYNTHETIC SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES A REDUCTION IN THE CLOUD MASS TO OUR SOUTH AS
THE UPPER LOW NEARS THE OKLAHOMA/TEXAS BORDER LATER TODAY.
MEANWHILE...THE BAROCLINIC CLOUD LEAF NOW MOVING OVER WESTERN
COLORADO IS LINKED TO A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEST EVIDENT IN
650-450 MB MODEL WIND AND HEIGHT FIELDS. MODELS SHOW THIS WAVE
INDUCED CLOUD SHIELD EXPANDING SOMEWHAT AS IT MIGRATES EASTWARD
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. THIS EXPANSION AND MOVEMENT ARE HANDLED WELL BY SYNTHETIC
SATL IMAGERY AND MODEL MID-LEVEL RH FIELDS. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND
CROSS SECTIONS SHOW THE CONVECTIVE CONDENSATION LEVEL LOWERING
MAINLY OVER MTN AREAS SOUTHWEST OF DENVER THIS AFTERNOON.
NAM...HRRR AND WRF-ARW ALL INDICATE SPOTTY REFLECTIVITY OVER AND
NEAR THE HIGH MTN TERRAIN IN PARK...SUMMIT AND CLEAR CREEK
COUNTIES BETWEEN 21Z-00Z TODAY...AND OVER THE MESQUITO RANGE IN
W-NWRN PARK COUNTY TIL 03Z THIS EVENING. NOTHING ON THE PLAINS OR
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70. PCPN AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE LIGHT AS THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA. WINDS
OVERALL IN THE MTNS AND UP AGAINST THE FOOTHILLS SHOULD REMAIN
GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE TODAY. WHEREAS FARTHER OUT ON THE
PLAINS...A TIGHT SFC PRES GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE GUSTY
SLY WINDS WITH SPEEDS APPROACHING 30 KTS IN SOME AREAS THROUGH
MID-AFTERNOON. THEN AS THE SHORTWAVE NEARS SHOULD SEE BNDRY LAYER
WINDS TURNING SELY AS THEY DROP OFF IN SPEED. CLOSER THE I-25
URBAN CORRIDOR...SHOULD SEE LIGHT ELY WINDS WITH A POORLY
ORGANIZED SFC CYCLONE FORMING OVER NERN DOUGLAS/NWRN ELBERT
COUNTIES. MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FCST GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR
THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 306 AM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

A WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION AS THE
UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS TO THE EAST OF COLORADO. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AREA WILL HELP TO ADVECT MID AND
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE INTO NERN CO TODAY. ALTHOUGH THE AREA OF
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL MAKES ITS WAY NORTHWARD...ANY POTENTIAL
PCPN WILL BE CONFINED TO ZONES 34 AND 37...WITH JUST SOME ISOLD
POPS THERE THIS AFTN. WL KEEP PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. AT THE SFC...THERE WILL BE SOME DECENT SELY
WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS OF COLORADO...WITH SFC HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT PLAINS...AND A SFC TROUGH OVER WRN CO.
COULD SEE A DENVER CYCLONE DEVELOP...ONLY EFFECT FM THIS WILL
CONCERN THE WIND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM NEW MEXICO TO MONTANA SUNDAY. A
WEAK LOW WILL UNDER CUT THE RIDGE AND INCREASE MOISTURE OVER THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING A FEW
WEAK SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO THE HIGH COUNTRY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70. WILL GO WITH LOW POPS FOR THIS SET UP FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S FOR
BOTH DAYS.

THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA LATE MONDAY AND AS A TROUGH
MOVE ONTO THE WEST COAST. IT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO MONTANA
TUESDAY. A SECOND WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER
NEVADA TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO COLORADO WEDNESDAY. WILL
SEE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD EAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE NOT IMPRESSIVE...SO ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON
THE LIGHT SIDE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER WEDNESDAY BECAUSE OF
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

MILD TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE REFORMS OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES. FRIDAY LOOKS TO
BE THE WARMER DAY. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED ALONG WITH DRY
CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 916 AM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

WINDS AT DEN AND APA TERMINALS HAVE YET TO SHIFT TO A SLY
COMPONENT AS MODELS HAD INDICATED. WILL ADJUST. HOWEVER STILL
BELIEVE SUCH A WIND COMPONENT WILL DEVELOP IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS
WITH SLY WINDS STRENGTHEN FARTHER OUT OF THE PLAINS. THEN AFTER
AROUND 20Z TODAY...SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL SHIFT TO E-SELY WINDS AT
ALL DENVER AREA TERMINALS..AT SPEEDS FM 7-14 KTS. OTHERWISE...
SHOULD BE IN AND OUT OF MID AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS TODAY WITH
ESSENTIALLY NO CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE DENVER AREA.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BAKER
SHORT TERM...COOPER
LONG TERM...MEIER
AVIATION...BAKER/COOPER


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