Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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448
FXUS65 KBOU 040251
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
851 PM MDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 851 PM MDT TUE MAY 3 2016

DIFFICULT TO FIND ANY CLOUDS OVER THE CWA RIGHT NOW. SHE`S CLEAR.
IN THE SYNOPTIC SCALE...ANY CLOUDINESS UPSTREAM IS AT LEAST TWO
CWAS AWAY IN ANY DIRECTION. THE WIND FIELD IS STILL MAINLY
NORTHERLY OVER THE PLAINS. DRAINAGE WINDS ARE GOOD BET OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE PLAINS LATER THIS EVENING. THERE IS VERY
LITTLE TO CHANGE WITH THE GFE GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM MDT TUE MAY 3 2016

THE NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT MOVED
ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO THIS MORNING IS PRODUCING GUSTY NORTH-
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ON THE PLAINS. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE CURRENTLY
OVER WASHINGTON...LINCOLN AND EASTERN ELBERT COUNTIES WHERE GUST TO
35 MPH ARE OCCURRING. THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.

A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN
REGION WILL BRING WARM AND DRY WEATHER TO NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEASTERN COLORADO ON WEDNESDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES ON THE PLAINS
WARMING INTO THE 70S. IN ADDITION...THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH
MOISTURE...COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS
OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN PEAKS ON WEDNESDAY AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM MDT TUE MAY 3 2016

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY
BRINGING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THERE WILL ONLY BE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR STORM OVER THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON/
EVENING...BUT STILL THINK THE NAM IS OVERDOING PRECIPITATION
GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND WARM AIR ALOFT. WILL
REDUCE THE POPS A BIT FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND KEEP THE PLAINS DRY.

BY FRIDAY...THE DEEP UPPER LOW IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL BEGIN
TO MOVE ONSHORE IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. STRONG JET
STREAM WILL BEGIN TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WITH A PIECE OF
ENERGY ROTATING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. OVERALL AIRMASS REMAINS
VERY WARM AND MAINLY DRY...BUT ENOUGH LIFT TO BRING THE THREAT OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONTO THE PLAINS.
AT THIS TIME IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BE RETURNING TO THE PLAINS FRIDAY SO SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LOW.

THAT SEVERE WEATHER THREAT MAY CHANGE BY SATURDAY AS PERSISTENT
AND STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND
DRAWS IN HIGHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. AT THE SAME TIME...A DEEP
SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER EASTERN COLORADO ALONG
WITH A WARM FRONT AND POTENTIAL DRYLINE INTERACTION. CAPES IN THE
WARM AND MOIST TONGUE MAY REACH 1500-2000 J/KG AND COMBINE WITH
INCREASING SHEAR TO PRODUCE A THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
MUCH OF EASTERN COLORADO. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL EVENTUALLY DRIFT
EAST ACROSS COLORADO. WE WILL STILL BE UNSTABLE WITH SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS TIME...WE DONT ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD OR
STEADY RAIN BUT STILL UNSETTLED AND COOLER WEATHER. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD TURN COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS.

ON TUESDAY...WE WILL TRANSITION TO A MORE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.
THERE SHOULD STILL BE SOME MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AROUND TO KEEP
A FEW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 851 PM MDT TUE MAY 3 2016

WEAK WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE IN PLACE AT DIA RIGHT NOW.
NORMAL DRAINAGE WINDS...ALBEIT A BIT WEAKER THAN NORMAL ARE
LIKELY BEFORE 04Z. THERE WILL BE NO CEILING ISSUES.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RJK
SHORT TERM...KALINA
LONG TERM...BARJENBRUCH
AVIATION...RJK



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