Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 030212
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
812 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 757 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

MINIMAL SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH ONLY SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN FOOTHILLS AND DIVIDE. CONTINUED DRY
AIRMASS IN THE LOW LEVELS WHILE 00Z DENVER RAOB SHOWED WARMING
ALOFT DURING THE DAY WITH STRENGTHENING INVERSION AT 450MB.
ESSENTIALLY CAPPING MUCH OF ANY STRONGER CONVECTION. STILL MAY SEE
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH THE LATE EVENING BUT RAINFALL WILL BE
MINIMAL ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 30 MPH.

AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR STORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 159 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

CONVECTIVE CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
ALONG THE HIGHER FOOTHILLS. STILL EXPECT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH SOME MAKING THEIR WAY OFF
THE FOOTHILLS ONTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS. UPPER AIR DYNAMICS OVER
THE PLAINS ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE WITH ACARS SOUNDINGS STILL SHOWING
SOME WARMING ALOFT AND INCREASED DRYING IN THE LOWER LEVELS. LEFT
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE PLAINS MAINLY WEST OF I-25 FOR SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS. VIRGA COULD BE THE RESULT WITH
WINDS UP TO 35 MPH. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING
WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE WITH A FRONT THAT WILL MOVE
THROUGH NE COLORADO THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL
BRING INCREASED CHANCES OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS. INSTABILITY ON THE PLAINS
INCREASES FOR THURSDAY WITH THE NAM BRINGING PW VALUES CLOSE TO 1
INCH. MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE OVER THE PLAINS IN THE AFTERNOON TO CHANCE BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN THE LAST
FEW DAYS WITH HIGHS ON THE PLAINS IN THE UPPER 80S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 159 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

A SOUTHERLY FLOW COUPLED WITH WEAK EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES...ONE
THURSDAY NIGHT...THE OTHER LATE FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...WILL
COMBINE TO PRODUCE A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE MOUNTAINS...WITH A LESSER CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS.
BY SATURDAY...THE FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF
AN UPPER TROUGH DROPPING INTO NRN CA/NWRN NV.  AS THIS TROUGH
SHIFTS EASTWARD...THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE GETS SHIFTED A LITTLE
FURTHER EAST AND SOUTH. THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE OF TSTMS ON
SATURDAY...BUT THE COVERAGE SHOULD BE A LITTLE LOWER. BY SUNDAY
HOWEVER...A DRIER SOUTHWEST/WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER CO
AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF COLORADO.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER OVER THE WEEKEND BUT NOT BY
MUCH...MORE LIKE MID 80S AT THIS POINT. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN
SOUTHWESTERLY FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SOME SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
SLIPPING BACK INTO THE PICTURE. IT WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER WITH A
BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTN/EVNG...ESPECIALLY IN
THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 757 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

A WEAK CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY OVER EAST DENVER WITH LIGHT SW WINDS
AT BJC/APA WHILE DEN REMAINS UNDER SE WINDS. EXPECT WEAK
CONVECTION OVER FOOTHILLS WILL GRADUALLY PUSH SOUTHWEST WINDS
FURTHER EAST INTO DEN BETWEEN 03-04Z. ONLY ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS REMAIN OVER JEFFERSON AND PARK COUNTIES WITH GUSTY WINDS
UP TO 25 MPH. BETTER CHANCE FOR STORMS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
HAVE INTRODUCED PROB30 GROUPS FOR NOW.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ENTREKIN
SHORT TERM...BOWEN
LONG TERM...COOPER
AVIATION...ENTREKIN



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