Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 161811
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
1211 PM MDT Sat Mar 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Low chance (< 30%) for patchy fog across parts of urban corridor
  and plains early this morning.

- Cool this weekend with a chance for light snow mountains,
  foothills, and nearby plains.

- Warmer weather next week (Beginning Monday).

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1023 AM MDT Sat Mar 16 2024

The forecast remains on track for a quiet weather day. Some mid
level clouds are forming in southern Weld County that may spread
across the rest of the Denver metro. This may limit high
temperatures by a couple of degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 246 AM MDT Sat Mar 16 2024

Northeast CO will remain under deformation zone with a closed
upper low of the Desert Southwest and an omega ridge over British
Columbia. All that said means there is not much weather to contend
with through tonight. Mainly impacts will be an increase in clouds
from the southwest and a chance of showers over the higher
terrain.  Some patchy fog/stratus evident on satellite and metar
observations this morning, and much of this should be over by 8-9
am. Otherwise, slightly warmer temperatures will help continue to
melt the snowpack we inherited this past week. North to northeast
winds will develop across the northeast plains this afternoon and
evening, with isolated to scattered showers possible over the
elevated terrain to the west and south of Denver this afternoon
and tonight. Elsewhere, it will be mostly cloudy tonight
especially in the Front Range mountains, foothills and adjacent
plains.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 246 AM MDT Sat Mar 16 2024

Long wave trough will remain over the Great Lakes region and
eastern Canada through the middle part of next week. This will
clog up the upper level pattern across the country. The upper
level low that brought the heavy snow will wobble around the
Desert Southwest through Wednesday. The low gets close enough that
it throws high clouds over the area Sunday. There could be enough
mid level moisture and upslope flow to produce light snow over
the mountains and foothills Sunday and Sunday night. The latest
model runs are showing less moisture, so any snowfall is expected
to be light and less than 2 inches.

Drier air moves in Monday as the upper level low to the southwest
continues to slowly weaken. With sunny skies in places, expect to
see a nice warm up early next week with highs in the upper 50s to
lower 60s over northeast Colorado. Any locations hanging onto
snow will be cooler.

Upper level pattern transitions to a progressive westerly flow
aloft Wednesday. The upper level low gets caught up in the
increasing flow aloft and tracks across the Southern Rockies
Wednesday. Could see a few rain and snow showers as the low pushes
through the region. Best chance for precipitation will stay south
of the area. For Thursday and Friday, westerly flow aloft will
help to keep mild air over the state. There isn`t a well defined
system in the westerly flow aloft for Colorado Thursday and
Friday, but ensemble members are hinting at a system (short wave
trough) for the mountains sometime late this week or next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1153 AM MDT Sat Mar 16 2024

There is a thin cloud layer at 5,000 feet that will stick around
all afternoon. Sky conditions will likely move back and forth
between SCT050 and BKN050 through sunset. This may have a minor
impact on arrival rates but it may also have no impact. A thicker
cloud deck is expected this evening around the same level. There
may be breaks in the cloud deck overnight and especially tomorrow
morning. The cloud deck should return tomorrow afternoon.

Otherwise, winds will be out of the north or north-northwest to
day with brief gusts up to 18 knots. These winds will weak in the
late afternoon and winds will shift to the west this evening
before drainage overnight.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Danielson
SHORT TERM...Cooper
LONG TERM...Meier
AVIATION...Danielson


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