Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 240329
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
929 PM MDT Thu Mar 23 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 909 PM MDT Thu Mar 23 2017

Cold front has moved south over the plains bringing wind gusts up
to 50 mph. Dewpoints in Wyoming are still hovering in the 30s and
40s. Radar shows some echoes over the north with light rain
starting for form over northern Larimer and Weld counties. Expect
the progression to continue south as the moisture fetch from the
cyclone continues to push into the region. There is a dry slot on
IR and water vapor over the SE that could help to slow
precipitation for portions of the central plains at first. Still
expect highest snow amounts to the south over the Palmer
Ridge...Douglas...Elbert and Lincoln counties with less to the
north. The best QG lift still exists between midnight and noon
over the plains that could help to change rain over to snow but
latest model runs still show slightly warmer temperatures at the
700 mb level. Current forecast is on track so updated for current
conditions.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 232 PM MDT Thu Mar 23 2017

Still a thunderstorm threat over the far northeast corner through
this evening with southeast winds bringing in higher dewpoint air
in the mid 40s. Surface capes so potential up to 1500j/kg.

Main concern will be incoming storm system which will move across
Colorado tonight and Friday. Main impact areas will be over
Southern Front Range foothills and out over the Palmer Divide
where the higher elevations will be more snow than rain. Surface
cold front over Wyoming will drop into Eastern Colorado this
evening with increasing northerly winds. There is huge qg numbers
with this incoming system with intensification expected later
tonight and early Friday. The focus still appears to be across
Douglas, Elbert and Northern lincoln counties and also eastern
portions of adams and arapahoe counties with biggest threat for
blizzard conditions with gusts in the 30-45kt range. Washington
county is on the edge but will go with an advisory there,
especially over southern portions of Washington county.

Further West over the Denver area, expect some snowfall to impact
morning rush hour with over all amounts of 3-6 inches, especially
east and south of Denver. Much of the far northeast plains will
likely remain rain. Overall low to medium confidence on the
rain/snow issues on the plains and higher confidence on the Palmer
Divide. Rain and snow will be rapidly decreasing Friday afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 232 PM MDT Thu Mar 23 2017

Active weather pattern is expected through the period with a series
of storm systems moving across the central and southern Rockies.
Temperatures Saturday morning are forecasted to drop below freezing
across most plains locations...due to light winds...drier
air...clearing skies and some snow cover. Warmer and drier weather
is expected on Saturday as upper level high pressure builds over the
Rocky Mountain Region. Models show an upper level trough of low
pressure moving across the state Saturday night into Sunday
...with an associated cold front sweeping across the northeastern
plains Sunday morning. This system should bring another round of
snow to the mountains...with breezy conditions a good chance for
precipitation across the plains. Right now models are indicating it
will be too warm for snow in Denver...however higher elevations
across the foothills and Palmer Divide could see some accumulation.
Warmer and drier weather should return to north central and
northeastern Colorado on Monday as upper level high pressure
rebuilds over the area.

The next storm system begins to impact the region on
Wednesday...however not sure to what extent due to model differences
and run to run inconsistencies. The 12z GFS shows the upper low
tracking across southern Arizona and New Mexico with most of the
moisture and energy to the south of our CWA. However...due to the
size of the system...the GFS does show some moisture and
precipitation wrapping back into northeastern Colorado Wednesday
night and Thursday. The latest 12z ECMWF has trended further to the
south and has the upper low centered over southern New Mexico by
noon Wednesday. This is much drier than previous solutions and
leaves much of our CWA dry. Due to the uncertainty...have lowered
forecast builder pops some in days six through eight.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 909 PM MDT Thu Mar 23 2017

Front has moved through the airport with northerly wind gusts
from 35 to 45 mph through 16z tomorrow with the onset of rain
changing over to snow between 04 and 05z. Conditions will steadily
worsen by 05z with MVFR conditions possible between 11 and 15z.
Winds combined with snow will reduce visibility to below a quarter
mile. Conditions are expected to improve by 16z with VFR
conditions by 19z. Winds will veer around to the SE by 03z before
moving to drainage.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 232 PM MDT Thu Mar 23 2017

Red flag conditions continuing this afternoon on the plains, but
humidity/winds not quite meeting criteria over the far ne corner
given influx of higher moisture. Much cooler and wetter on friday
as fire concerns will be going away. Still windy on Friday but at
least wetter.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Warning until noon MDT Friday for COZ036.

Winter Weather Advisory until noon MDT Friday for COZ033-035.

Winter Weather Advisory from 3 AM to noon MDT Friday for COZ034-
039-040-049.

Blizzard Warning until noon MDT Friday for COZ041.

Blizzard Warning from 3 AM to noon MDT Friday for COZ045-046.

High Wind Warning from 3 AM to 6 PM MDT Friday for COZ047.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Bowen
SHORT TERM...Entrekin
LONG TERM...Kalina
AVIATION...Bowen
FIRE WEATHER...Entrekin



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