Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 050953
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
253 AM MST THU MAR 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 253 AM MST THU MAR 5 2015

WARMING ALOFT HAS COMMENCED...WITH ONLY A SHALLOW LAYER OF COLD
AIR ON THE PLAINS AND IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. RECENT ACARS
SOUNDING FROM DIA SHOWED 25 DEGREES JUST 200 FEET OFF THE
GROUND...SO THE COLD AIR SHOULD MIX OUT OF MOST PLACES PRETTY
QUICKLY THIS MORNING. VALLEY AREAS WILL LIKELY TAKE A WHILE LONGER
WITH THE SNOW COVER SLOWING THE MIXING...BUT EXPECT THOSE
DIFFERENCES TO BE GONE BY MID AFTERNOON. SNOW COVER WILL LIKELY
WIND UP BEING THE RESTRAINING FACTOR IN SURFACE TEMPERATURES AS
THE AIR OFF THE GROUND CONTINUES TO WARM TO ABOVE FREEZING. THERE
WILL ALSO BE SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING OVER THE NORTHEAST...AT THIS
TIME THEY LOOK TO BE FAIRLY THIN BUT THE COVERAGE COULD BE HIGH
FOR A WHILE. SOME CLOUDS LINGER TONIGHT BUT STILL EXPECTING A
LIMITED IMPACT. WITH AIRMASS CONTINUING TO WARM THE RIDGES AND
FOOTHILLS MAY NOT SEE MUCH COOLING...LOW LYING AREAS SHOULD
DECOUPLE AND COOL OFF BUT STILL 10-15 DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS
MORNING. CURRENT FORECAST HAS ALL THIS PRETTY WELL IN HAND...MADE
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR MORE CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON AND
MORE WIND IN THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM MST THU MAR 5 2015

LITTLE TO CONTEND WITH IN THE LONG TERM. FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
A RELATIVELY WEAK NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER CO...
AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
U.S. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK TO NEAR NORMAL ON
FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH LINGERING SNOW COVER MAY OFFSET THE WARMING IN
SOME AREAS. OVER THE WEEKEND...WEAK SYSTEMS EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW
ALOFT BRING A COUPLE OF WEAK COOL FRONTS INTO THE NORTHEAST
PLAINS. ONE WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SATURDAY...WITH ANOTHER SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE OVERALL EFFECTS FM THESE FRONTS WILL BE
MINIMAL...OFFSETTING THE MAX TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY/SUNDAY...
BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES VS FRIDAY. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...A DRY MORE
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER COLORADO WITH A BROAD RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN U.S. FLATTENING AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODIFY...CLIMBING
INTO THE 60S FOR MONDAY/TUESDAY. SFC LEE TROUGHING OVER EASTERN CO
WL ENHANCE THE DOWNSLOPE/WARMING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. THE NEXT
POTENTIAL SYSTEM MAY POSSIBLY START TO IMPACT WESTERN CO BY
WEDNESDAY...SO SLGT CHC POPS WILL BE INCLUDED IN THE MOUNTAINS AT
THAT TIME. SOME OF THIS PCPN COULD SPILL INTO THE NORTHEAST PLAINS
BY THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 253 AM MST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GIMMESTAD
LONG TERM...COOPER
AVIATION...GIMMESTAD


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