Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 041800
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1200 PM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1156 AM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST OF THE STATE WITH MODEST DRYING BEHIND IT
ALONG WITH SLIGHT WARMING ALOFT. THIS WILL STABILIZE THE
ATMOSPHERE. THIS MAY BE LESS TRUE IN THE FAR NORTHEAST CORNER
WHERE SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER IT WILL BE LESS UNSTABLE THAN THIS MORNING. DROPPED THE
MENTION OF SEVERE WEATHER IN THE CORNER AND LOWERED POPS A BIT
MORE...STILL SLIGHT CHANCES IN THE MOUNTAINS FOR VERY WEAK
CONVECTION AND IN THE CORNER AS TEMPERATURES WARM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. FORECAST TEMPS LOOK ON TRACK...AND WE SHOULD SEE PRETTY
GOOD CLEARING THIS EVENING. HIGH MOUNTAIN WINDS STILL GOING...BUT
WILL BE DECREASING AS THE JET MOVES AWAY THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 244 AM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL WYOMING WITH ASSOCIATED UPPER TROF MOVING
THROUGH CENTRAL COLORADO AT THIS TIME. ONLY LINGERING ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN OVER CENTRAL CO WHICH WILL SKIRT
PARK COUNTY THROUGH ABOUT 530 AM...THEN ENDING. ALONG AND BEHIND
THE TROF AXIS EXPECT AN INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH
INCREASING SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE. CROSS SECTIONS SHOWING UP TO
45KT CROSS BARRIER FLOW WITH EVEN A WEAK MOUNTAIN TOP INVERSION THROUGH
ABOUT 15Z OVER THE FRONT RANGE. EXPECT RIDGE TOP AND EAST SLOPE
WINDS SPEEDS TO INCREASE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS UP TO 45
MPH OR SO. HIGHER ELEVATIONS ARE ALREADY GUSTING IN THE 30-40KT
RANGE. WITH THE DOWNSLOPE WINDS OVER THE FRONT RANGE TODAY EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK UP TO AROUND 90 DEGREES ALONG WITH DRY
CONDITIONS.

A DRIER AND MORE SUBSIDENT AIRMASS WILL BE OVER MUCH OF COLORADO
TODAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTHEAST PLAINS. THE UPPER TROF
WILL STILL BE SLOWLY MOVING OVER THE FAR PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SOME LIFT...WHILE WEAK CONVERGENCE AND HIGHER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SPELLS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. COULD EVEN BE A SEVERE
STORM WITH SFC BASED CAPES FROM 1000-2000J/KG GIVEN 60 DEWPOINTS
NOW ACROSS NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND AMPLE SHEAR PROFILE. IMPACTS
WOULD INCLUDE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WITH THE STRONGER
STORMS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 AM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

IT WILL BE HOTTER ON WEDNESDAY WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER COLORADO. A WEAK SHORT WAVE DOES PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE
STATE LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT SO THERE WILL
BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
NORTHERN BORDER. BY THURSDAY...THE RIDGE WILL BE A BIT FLATTER
WITH A DRY ZONAL FLOW OVER THE STATE. MDLS STILL GENERATE SOME QPF
OVER THE MTNS AND FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS SO WILL KEEP SLGT CHC
TSTMS THERE THU AFTN/EVNG. FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...THE RIDGE
ALOFT SHIFTS MORE THE THE SOUTHEAST WITH THE FLOW ALOFT OVER CO
BECOMING SWLY. AS IT DOES...SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE STARTS TO GET
TRANSPORT BACK INTO THE REGION. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND. OVERALL MORE CLOUDS AND A BETTER CHANCE OF AFTN/EVNG
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SUNDAY/MONDAY. THIS TREND ALREADY REFLECTED
IN THE GRIDS SO OVERALL ADJUSTMENTS WL BE MINOR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1156 AM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

VFR THROUGH TONIGHT. STILL EXPECTING A PERIOD OF NORTHWEST WINDS
GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GIMMESTAD
SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM...COOPER
AVIATION...GIMMESTAD


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