Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS65 KBOU 170354
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
854 PM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 853 PM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

TONIGHT`S FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK. SKIES CONTINUE TO
CLEAR AS MID-LEVELS DRY AND STABILIZE IN THE WAKE OF THE WEAK
MID-LEVEL PERTABATION THAT PASSED BY EARLIER TODAY. CLEARING
SKIES AND A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER OVERLAYING SNOW COVER ON THE
PLAINS MAY ONCE AGAIN CONDENSE OUT INTO PATCHY DENSE GROUND FOG
AROUND MIDNIGHT...AND THEN EXPAND IN COVERAGE DURING THE LATE
NIGHT HOURS WITH FURTHER COOLING. COULD SEE VBSYS LOWERING TO
LESS THAN A MILE OR SO IN SPOTS NEAR THE STATE`S NORTHEAST
CORNER...HIGHER AREAS AROUND LIMON AND ALONG THE SOUTH PLATTE
RIVER INTO WELD COUNTY. BY MORNING...SHOULD SEE SKIES FILLING
WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AS MOISTURE STREAMS IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. IT STILL APPEARS SNOW CHANCES WILL INCREASE THROUGH
THE DAY BEGINNING IN THE MTNS AND HIGH VALLEYS BEFORE THE NOON
HOUR. SHOULD THEN SEE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS SPREADING OUT ONTO THE
PLAINS AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS NEXT
WAVE OF LOW CLOUDS AND PRECIP MOVES IN FROM THE FOUR CORNERS.
NEEDED TO MAKE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER...TEMPERATURE...
DEWPOINT AND WIND GRIDS DURING 1ST AND 2ND PERIODS OF THE
FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

BEST LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A LITTLE RIPPLE OF WARM ADVECTION ALOFT
MOVING FROM THE MOUNTAINS TO THE NORTHEAST BORDER AREAS. THERE MAY
BE A FEW FLURRIES/SPRINKLES REACHING THE GROUND BUT NOT MUCH.
MEANWHILE THERE ARE STILL SOME WEAK SHOWERS UPSTREAM IN THE
MOUNTAINS. THERE WILL BE A BETTER BREAK LATER THIS EVENING THOUGH
STILL SOME CLOUD COVER...THEN ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BRING
SOME LIFT INTO THE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND OVER THE PLAINS
IN THE AFTERNOON. WHILE THIS SYSTEM ALSO ONLY HAS WEAK LIFT...
THERE IS PLENTY OF MOISTURE AROUND AND NOTHING TO STOP LIGHT SNOW
FROM REACHING THE GROUND. MODELS BRING A SNOW BAND ONTO THE PLAINS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE...NAM SEEMS OVERDONE
WITH 1 TO 4 INCHES...WHILE THE GFS HAS UNDER HALF AN INCH AND THAT
MAY NOT QUITE BE ENOUGH IF THERE IS SOME FOCUS. ACCEPTED A BLEND
OF THESE AND SMEARED OUT THE DETAIL A BIT...FOR NOW A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW ON THE PLAINS WILL SUFFICE BUT IT MAY NEED TO BE
RAISED FOR A HIGHER CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW.

OTHER MINOR CHANGES INCLUDE MORE CLOUD COVER OVERALL THOUGH STILL
ALLOWING FOR SOME CLEARING OVERNIGHT...AND CORRESPONDING SLIGHTLY
WARMER LOWS TONIGHT AND COOLER HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY. ALSO ADDED SOME
AREAS OF FOG IN THE NORTHEAST CORNER WHICH HAS NOT WARMED AS MUCH
AND WILL SEE DECENT CLEARING FOR A WHILE TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

THE STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PASS ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH WEAK QG ASCENT LINGERING OVER NORTHEAST CO
IN THE EVENING. SOME LIGHT SNOW STILL POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS
PRIMARILY IN ZONE 34. BEST CHC OF SNOW OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO
WILL SOUTH OF A LINE FROM DENVER TO AKRON. BY THURSDAY...THE AMS
WILL DRY OUT IN THE LOWER LEVELS BUT STILL PLENTY OF MOISTURE AOA
450 MB TO KEEP UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF
BREAK AHEAD OF NEXT WEAK SYSTEM. THIS TROUGH IS PROGGED TO SLIDE
ACROSS CO THURSDAY NIGHT. BEST CHC OF SNOW WILL BE IN THE
MOUNTAINS WITH SLGT CHC COVERAGE OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS. A
DRIER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER COLORADO ON FRIDAY
WITH THE TROUGH TO THE EAST AND THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE ROCKIES.
LESS CLOUD COVER MAY HELP THE MODIFY TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AS THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFT TO THE EAST
SATURDAY...INCREASING MOISTURE WILL SPREAD ACROSS COLORADO AHEAD
OF ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THIS FEATURE WL HAVE
LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON THE CWFA AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE
SOUTH. BY SUNDAY...THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY WITH
MOISTURE FM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BRINGING A CHANCE OF SNOW TO THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THERE WL BE A CHANCE
OF RAIN/SNOW FOR THE NORTHEAST PLAINS ON MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH NORTHEAST COLORADO. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE STRONGER
WITH A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST AND A NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST UPPER JET STRETCHING FROM THE PAC NW INTO COLORADO.
THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE PCPN OVER COLORADO ON TUESDAY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 853 PM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AT DENVER AREA TERMINALS WITH SKIES
CLEARING THROUGH 2 AM. SKIES WILL THEN BEGIN TO FILL WITH HIGH
CLOUDS...AND THEN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS TOWARDS MORNING. LIGHT
DRAINAGE WINDS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. ON
WEDNESDAY...LOOK FOR BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES WITH CLOUD CEILINGS
LOWERING THROUGH THE DAY. BY MIDDAY...COULD SEE BROKEN CIGS DOWN
AROUND 4500-5000 FT AGL WITH ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN
THE AREA. BY MID-AFTERNOON TERMINALS COULD SEE TEMPO ILS CONDITIONS
WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW AND FOG AS AN UPPER LEVEL WEATHER
DISTURBANCE PASSES BY.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BAKER
SHORT TERM...GIMMESTAD
LONG TERM...COOPER
AVIATION...BAKER


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.