Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 270924
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
324 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 324 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

RADAR SHOWS AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING
NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN COLORADO EARLY THIS MORNING.
THEY AREA MOVING EAST/NORTHEAST AND WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER
OR NOT THESE SPILL ONTO THE PLAINS BUT THERE IS AT LEAST WEAK SYNOPTIC
SCALE LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS TO AID THAT CAUSE. THE BULK
OF THIS FORCING WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...SO REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION WILL HAVE TO RELY
ON DAYTIME HEATING AND MID LEVEL COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER
TROUGH. AS A RESULT...HIGHEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON SHOULD OCCUR WHERE CAP WILL BE WEAKEST IN/NEAR THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND IN AREAS THAT SEE MORE SUNSHINE. STORM
INTENSITY WILL BE LIMITED BY CAPES LESS THAN 500 J/KG SO NO
SEVERE STORMS ANTICIPATED TODAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL 10-15 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY WITH THE
COOLING ALOFT AND INCREASE OF CLOUDS/CONVECTION.

FOR TONIGHT...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE RATHER QUICKLY
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND BUILDING SUBSIDENCE.
CLEARING SKIES SHOULD ALLOW FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LOW
TEMPS IN THE 50S ON THE PLAINS AND 30S/40S MOUNTAINS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

THE RIDGE WILL BE OVER AZ/NEW MX ON FRIDAY WITH A WEAK NORTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT OVER COLORADO. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF GENERATED IN
THE MDLS...BUT WL KEEP A SLGT CHC OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN THE
AFTN/EVNG. OVER THE WEEKEND...THE RIDGE WILL BUILD WITH THE AXIS
SHIFTING MORE TO THE EAST OF THE STATE WITH A WEAK
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK INTO
THE LOWER 90S FOR THE WEEKEND. THE MDLS TRY TO PUSH SOME
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE STATE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. WL GO WITH
CHC POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH SLGT CHC OF LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS. WITH A LITTLE MORE CLOUD COVER OVER THE
STATE...TEMPERATURES MAY GET OFFSET BY A DEGREE OR TWO NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 324 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS EXPECTED IN THE VICINITY THIS MORNING WITH A BETTER CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS BY 18Z-22Z AS AIRMASS DESTABILIZES
WITH PASSAGE OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THERE SEEMS TO BE ENOUGH
THREAT OF STORMS FOR A BRIEF OPPORTUNITY FOR TEMPO THUNDER THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE SKIES WILL CLEAR THIS EVENING. WINDS SHIFTING
FROM SOUTHWEST TO MORE NORTH/NORTHWEST BY 15Z AND THEN TRENDING
MORE NORTH/NORTHEAST 18Z-00Z. GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE BEHIND
FRONT...AND TO AROUND 30 KNOTS FROM ANY NEARBY STORMS. THEN WINDS
EVENTUALLY BECOMING VARIABLE 01Z-04Z THIS EVENING BEFORE NORMAL
DRAINAGE WINDS DEVELOP AGAIN OVERNIGHT.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH
LONG TERM...COOPER
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH



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