Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 180144
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
744 PM MDT Sat Jun 17 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 744 PM MDT Sat Jun 17 2017

Isolated showers still linger about, but they are very light and
gradually decreasing as expected. Winds are also slowly subsiding
in the wake of the cold front. Stratus deck is beginning to fill
in along the foothills and should become more widespread overnight
with continued easterly component and a more moist airmass.

Overall forecast is on track with only slight adjustments for
latest observations.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 333 PM MDT Sat Jun 17 2017

Cold front rolling through Denver this hour with a 20 degree
temperature drop and wind gusts to 30 mph coming over the next
couple hours. Some weak lift is creating some elevated showers,
but so far it`s mostly virga. Still a chance of a few storms,
mainly over the better moisture near the eastern border.

The winds will diminish this evening, both on the plains and in
the mountains. A stratus deck behind the front will take all night
to pass over, and the upslope component to the wind will help hold
the cloud over Denver. Expect this to clear during the morning
Sunday. Cold advection looks a little more than previously
forecast, so I dropped the lows a little despite the clouds.

For Father`s Day it will be cooler at low levels while there was
little change over the higher mountains and still hot summer air
above that. As a result the airmass will be stable and once the
stratus passes by it will be a sunny and mild day. For the
mountains just a little cooling but drier air, so some cumulus
development is possible but the chance of rain is pretty low.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 333 PM MDT Sat Jun 17 2017

An upper level ridge over the Desert Southwest will bring very
warm temperatures next week. On Monday, a surface high east of
Colorado will keep an easterly low level flow over Colorado. Warm
air aloft will cap any convection. This will result in highs in
the 80s Monday. The ridge intensifies Tuesday and shifts eastward.
Temperatures will push into the 90s Tuesday through Thursday. A
few low 100s will be possible Wednesday and Thursday. The warmest
day looks to be Thursday ahead of a cold front. This front will
bring cooler temperatures for Friday and Saturday.

Chances for precipitation will be low to none next week. The
ECMWF shows a little convection starting Tuesday, while the GFS
doesn`t have any precipitation until Wednesday. Will have low pops
at times for the chance at weak convection from mid week through
Saturday. There are no large scale systems expected to move across
the area. If thunderstorms form they should be isolated. Along
and behind a cold front Thursday could bring additional moisture
for thunderstorms. However, at this time models differ on the
timing and amount of moisture associated with this front.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 744 PM MDT Sat Jun 17 2017

Stratus deck is now developing in the 4000-5000 foot range across
the Denver metro area airports, and slowly filling back to KDEN.
ILS landing conditions will likely persist with similar ceiling
heights through 12Z. This deck is expected to erode 12Z-16Z with
light southerly component developing then. VFR through Sunday with
winds turning more easterly around 5-10 knots 17Z-21Z.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Barjenbruch
SHORT TERM...Gimmestad
LONG TERM...Meier
AVIATION...Barjenbruch



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