Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 021117
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
417 AM MST TUE FEB 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM MST TUE FEB 2 2016

NERN COLORADO NOW IN THE FINAL THROWS OF THE MASSIVE WINTER STORM
SYSTEM CURRENTLY TREKKING ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S.. EVEN AS THE
UPPER LOW PULLS AWAY MOISTURE CONTINUES TO WRAP BACK INTO NERN
COLORADO. QG OMEGA FIELDS CONTINUE TO INDICATE WEAK TO MODERATE
LARGE SCALE ASCENT OVER THE NERN CORNER OF THE STATE WHERE METARS
ARE STILL INDICATING LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL. IN ADDITION...A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND A STRONG WRAP AROUND FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE STG/GUSTY N-NELY SFC WINDS ACRS FAR ERN
SECTIONS OF THE CWA AT THIS TIME. SUSTAINED SPEEDS IN THE 15-20KTS
WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30KTS HAVE CONTINUED TO PRODUCE AREAS OF
BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW. MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL AND STRONG NELY
WINDS LAST EVENING CLOSED MANY ROADS ACROSS NERN COLORADO
INCLUDING I-76 NORTHEAST OF LOCHBUIE AND I-70 EAST AURORA. AT LAST
WORD...THESE ROADS REMAIN CLOSE...DUE LARGELY TO THE EXTENSIVE
DRIFTING. IN THE PAST HOUR OR SO...WINDS ON THE PLAINS HAVE TAKEN
ON A NWLY COMPONENT AND SPEEDS HAVE GENERALLY DECREASED WITH THE
NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LOW MOVING AWAY FROM COLORADO. WITH THIS
SHIFT TO NWLY WINDS SHOULD SEE A STEADY REDUCTION IN SNOWFALL
COVERAGE FROM NORTH-TO-SOUTH ON THE PLAINS AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO
FILTER DOWN FROM WYOMING. IN THE HIGH COUNTRY...HAVE ALREADY
OBSERVED A SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION IN SNOWFALL WITH THE LAST OF THE
SNOWFALL LINGERING ON THE PEAKS...HIGH PASSES AND EAST SLOPES OF
THE FRONT RANGE MTNS. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY
NEXT 12 HOURS GENERALLY LESS THAN 3 INCHES. AT LOWER ELEVATIONS
COULD STILL SEE ANOTHER INCH OR SO IN THE DENVER AREA...FOOTHILLS
AREA WEST-SOUTHWEST OF DENVER...AND ON THE PALMER DIVIDE EAST TO
LINCOLN AND SRN WASHINGTON COUNTIES.

BY THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD SEE SKIES GRADUALLY CLEARING FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST AS WELL AS LIGHTER WIND SPEEDS. HIGH COUNTRY AREAS WILL
STILL HAVE A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW AND WEAK
OROGRAPHIC FORCING. SEE LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURE FROM THE DAY
BEFORE.

TONIGHT...SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR AS DRIER AND SLIGHTLY WARMER
AIR ALOFT SPREADS IN FROM THE WEST. UNFORTUNATELY MOST AREAS WILL
NOT FEEL THE AFFECTS OF THIS WARMING ALOFT AS CLEARING SKIES WILL
ALLOW FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING TO DROP OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ON THE PLAINS AND SINGLE DIGITS BELOW
ZERO IN THE HIGH COUNTRY.

AS FOR THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS. THE WARNING FOR THE
HIGH COUNTRY WILL BE DROPPED SHORTLY. THAT ALSO APPLIES TO ALL BUT
THE FAR EAST PLAINS ZONES OF THE CWA. A CONTINUATION OF SNOWFALL AND
BLOWING /DRIFTING SNOW OUT THERE WILL REQUIRE THE WARNING TO REMAIN
IN PLACE UNTIL 19Z TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM MST TUE FEB 2 2016

THERE WILL BE A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER COLORADO ON
WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. THERE IS A WEAK RIPPLE IN THE
FLOW WHICH MOVES ACROSS COLORADO ON WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL AID IN
PRODUCING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS. THERE WILL
LIKELY BE ENOUGH DOWNSLOPE FLOW TO KEEP SHOWERS FROM DEVELOPING
ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS.

A BRIEF RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER COLORADO ON THURSDAY
BUT TO BE QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER DISTURBANCE WHICH
DEVELOPS OVER THE 4 CORNERS BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. MOST OF THE
WEATHER APPEARS WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND WEST WITH JUST A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW ACROSS THE PLAINS. NOT A LOT OF CONSENSUS
WITH THE MODELS ON THIS ONE AS THE NAM IS THE MOST PROGRESSIVE AND
DRIEST WHILE THE EUROPEAN DRIVES MORE ENERGY FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS
ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO. GFS IS MORE IN THE MIDDLE.

THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND LOOKS DRY AND WARMER AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION THEN NEXT TROF DIVES INTO COLORADO
AS NEXT FRONT AND COLDER AIRMASS SINKS INTO THE REGION FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 410 AM MST TUE FEB 2 2016

SHOULD SEE LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AT DENVER AREA AIRPORTS
FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS AS NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE TO PUSH
MOISTURE UP AGAINST THE SRN FOOTHILLS AND PALMER DIVIDE. CIGS AS
LOW AS 800 FT AGL AND VSBYS AT LOW AS A HALF MILE POSSIBLE AT KDEN
AND KAPA. WHEREAS A SHIFT TO A DRIER NWLY WIND AT KBJC WILL
LOWER THE CHANCE OF LOW CIGS AND VSBYS THERE.

CIGS AND VSBYS SHOULD IMPROVE AT DENVER TERMINALS AFTER 16Z THIS
MORNING WITH DRIER NWLY FLOW SPREADING OVER THE METRO AREA. MOST
IF NOT ALL SNOWFALL SHOULD END IN THE DENVER AREAS BY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AS SKIES GRADUALLY CLEAR. TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS WITH
THE TYPICAL DRAINAGE WIND PATTERN IN PLACE AFTER DARK.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR COZ033>051.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM...ENTREKIN
AVIATION...BAKER


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