Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 102100

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
300 PM MDT Thu Aug 10 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Friday)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Thu Aug 10 2017

Cold front has pushed through most of the plains, except over
southern Lincoln County at this time. Storms pushing off the
higher terrain and over the urban corridor have begun to erode the
cap, and are gaining strength. The most heating will be south of
a convergence line stretching from Simla to east of Hugo. This
area would be the best place to see strongest storms with large
CAPE values and better surface winds for a possible weak tornado.
Otherwise the northeasterly post frontal winds are not that
favorable to help with a surface spin-up. Since the cold front is
pushing south, the best chance for a spin-up may end up south of
our forecast area. Elsewhere on the plains, with CAPE values near
1000 J/kg, will remain in an environment capable of penny to an
inch sized hail, strong outflow winds and heavy rain will remain.

This activity will diminish north to south as subsidence moves
into the area, although a possible shortwave over eastern Utah
may be enough to keep activity going until near midnight. Skies
should then clear out enough for areas of fog to develop as a weak
surface low is progged near the DIA airport.

Expect slightly higher temperatures Friday as the upper ridge
builds north a bit and allows for some warm advection.
Precipitable water values will be decreasing some and QG motion
will be weak downward, so expecting a slightly drier day in terms
of storms. Yet CAPE values of of 1000-1500 J/kg will allow for at
least isolated activity.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Thu Aug 10 2017

West to northwest flow aloft will continue through the weekend
with high pressure to the South and upper troughing moving South
out of Canada. This pattern will continue to bring unsettled
and moist weather and afternoon convection to the region.

For Friday evening...a wave will move through the flow helping to
bring increased instability to the plains by the late afternoon
and evening hours. Winds in the mid levels will continue to be
strong NW while surface winds will transition to a more southerly
direction. This will help to increase vertical shear values from
50 to 55 kts by 00z Saturday. The southeast flow will also aid in
the transport of additional low-level moisture over portions of
the plains east of a Sterling to Limon line and west into Elbert
county. Models show PW values increasing to over 1 inch by the
weekend on the plains. These combined ingredients will allow for
increase chances of severe storms by Friday afternoon and evening.
Main hazards will be large hail, potentially damaging outflow
winds and localized heavy rainfall.

For Saturday into Sunday...a cold front will drop out of the
Dakotas bringing a slightly cooler airmass and subsequent
instability along with continued surface moisture and more ideal
upslope ENE flow. This does not appear at this time to be a
particularly strong front with little fluctuations expected in
temperatures from previous days. Afternoon convection will
continue to be the main weather hazard with gusty winds, small
hail and brief moderate to heavy rainfall.

By next week upper ridging moves in over the Central CONUS with a
deepening trough over CA. This pattern shift will allow for
increased drying and warmer temperatures through the week. A
shortwave in various models Tuesday will bring another round of
afternoon convection with a slight chance of strong storms into
Tuesday evening. Models diverge slightly by mid week with
evolution of the upper pattern. Will continue with slightly below
average temperatures with low confidence in extended forecast.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Thu Aug 10 2017

Winds will remain northeast in the post frontal airmass through
nearly 06z before becoming light drainage. Thunderstorms will
impact the Denver area until around 01Z, with prevailing VFR
conditions but may see brief MVFR conditions in a stronger storm.
There is also a possibility to see small hail. Low clouds and fog
are expected to form over northeast Colorado after 06Z as skies
are clearing overnight and a weak surface low forms near DEN.
Ceilings are expected to drop below 1000 feet with a good chance
for fog and visibility of a quarter mile or less through at least
12Z Friday morning.




SHORT TERM...Kriederman
AVIATION...Kriederman is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.