Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 170957
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
357 AM MDT SUN AUG 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 222 AM MDT SUN AUG 17 2014

VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN FROM YESTERDAY AS THE
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT REMAINS CENTERED OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA.
COLORADO REMAINS UNDER A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS AS PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES CONTINUE TO DECREASE. LATEST INTEGRATED PW VALUES
FROM GPS SHOWING THE FRONT RANGE IS DOWN TO AROUND A HALF INCH OF
PW. LATEST SHORT RANGE MODELS AGAIN ARE SHOWING MOST OF THE
WEAK SHOWERS AGAIN CONFINED TO MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
CWA...ESPECIALLY PARK COUNTY AND EAST THROUGH THE PALMER DIVIDE.
COVERAGE WILL STILL BE RATHER ISOLATED IN NATURE. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABOUT THE SAME OR MAYBE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER FROM
YESTERDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 AM MDT SUN AUG 17 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES ON MON
WITH WNW MID LVL FLOW.  MEANWHILE A WK FNT WILL AFFECT NERN CO
DURING THE DAY WITH SHALLOW UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPING ALONG WITH AN
INCREASE IN LOW LVL MOISTURE OVER THE PLAINS BY AFTN. BOTH THE
ECMWF AND GFS STILL SHOW SOME MINOR INFLUX OF MONSOON MOISTURE FM
LATE AFTN THRU THE EVENING HOURS SO WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHC OF
STORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AT LOWER ELEVATIONS CAPES WILL
RANGE FM 1500-2000 J/KG OVER THE NERN PLAINS HOWEVER IT APPEARS
AIRMASS WILL BE CAPPED OFF THRU THE AFTN. ALONG THE FRONT RANGE
COULD SEE SOME ISOLD TO WDLY SCT STORMS BY LATE AFTN WHICH MAY
EVENTUALLY TAP INTO BETTER INSTABILITY OVER THE PLAINS BY EVENING
WITH STORMS LINGER THRU MIDNIGHT. THERE IS SOME SHEAR SO COULD SEE
AN ISOLD SVR STORM AS WELL. AS FOR HIGHS READINGS WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES COOLER OVER NERN CO WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S.

BY TUE THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL WEAKEN WITH THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMING
MORE SWLY AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH A SURGE
OF MONSOON MOISTURE.  OVER THE PLAINS DEEPER LOW LVL MOISTURE WILL
LIKELY REMAIN IN PLACE WHICH WILL LEAD TO AFTN CAPES AROUND 2000
J/KG.  OVERALL SHOULD SEE A BETTER CHC OF TSTMS ON TUE WITH ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING RATHER EARLY IN THE DAY WHICH WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
PLAINS BY MID TO LATE AFTN.  AS FOR HIGHS WITH INCREASING CLOUD
COVER AND EARLIER STORM DEVELOPMENT ITS POSSIBLE HIGHS WILL ONLY
REACH THE LOWER TO MID 80S OVER NERN CO.

ON WED THE MID LVL FLOW WILL REMAIN MAINLY SWLY WITH STILL SOME
INFLUX OF MONSOON MOISTURE.  BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A SFC LEE
TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS WITH LOW LVL LVL MOISTURE DECREASING BY AFTN
EXCEPT OVER THE FAR ERN PLAINS.  THUS TSTM ACTIVITY OVER NERN CO MAY
BE MORE ISOLD IN THE AFTN WITH THE BEST CHC OVER THE FAR NERN
CORNER.  IN THE MTNS WILL STILL PROBABLY SEE A CHC OF AFTN STORMS.
HIGHS ON WED WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS NERN CO DUE TO
LESS CLOUD COVER AND TSTM ACTIVITY.

FOR THU THE ECMWF AND GFS BEGIN TO DIVERGE AS THE ECMWF SHOWS AN
ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING FM THE PACIFIC NW ACROSS THE
NRN ROCKIES WHICH LEADS TO WLY FLOW ALOFT OVER NRN CO AND SHUTS OFF
FLOW OF MONSOON MOISTURE.  MEANWHILE THE GFS STILL SHOWS A FETCH OF
MONSOON MOISTURE IN SWLY FLOW ALOFT WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
AFFECTING THE AREA.  AT THIS TIME REALLY HARD TO SAY WHICH SOLUTION
WILL END UP BEING RIGHT SO WILL JUST MENTION A SLIGHT CHC OF TSTMS
WITH HIGHS NR SEASONAL NORMALS.

BY FRI THE ECMWF KEEPS MAINLY DRY WLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA WHILE
THE GFS STILL HAS SOME LINGERING MONSOON MOISTURE IN SWLY FLOW
ALOFT.  ONCE AGAIN WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHC OF STORMS IN THE FCST WITH
NEAR NORMAL TEMPS.  ON SAT THE ECMWF HAS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN NW
FLOW ALOFT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH A COLD FNT WHICH WOULD
BRING A CHC OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPS.  THE GFS
IS SLOWER WITH THIS TROUGH AND FNTL PASSAGE WITH THE MAIN AFFECTS
NOT OCCURRING UNTIL LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 222 AM MDT SUN AUG 17 2014

MAJORITY OF SHOWERS SHOULD AGAIN BE WEST AND SOUTH OF THE
TERMINALS. STILL COULD BE SOME OUTFLOW AND GUSTY WINDS WITH THE
SHOWERS THA MAY APPROACH TERMINALS.  CURRENT PROB30 LOOKS TOO
HIGH AND WILL REMOVE IN UPCOMING 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. ANY CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE MORE ISOLATED AND WON`T INCLUDE IN TAF.


&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM...RPK
AVIATION...ENTREKIN



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