Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS65 KBOU 251432
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
832 AM MDT MON AUG 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 832 AM MDT MON AUG 25 2014

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING.
THEY ARE LIKELY BEING TRIGGERED BY A JET MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.
MOISTURE IS BEING TRANSPORT FROM THE PACIFIC WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUE OF THREE QUARTERS OF INCH IN THE DENVER AREA. MOISTURE
IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TONIGHT AS AN EASTERLY LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE
FLOW PREVAILS. WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S AND DEW
POINTS NEAR 50...SURFACE BASED CAPES ARE EXPECTED TO BE 600-1200
J/KG. HIGHER DEW POINTS AND/OR HIGHER TEMPERATURES WILL PRODUCE
HIGHER CAPES THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE BECAUSE OF THIS INSTABILITY AND GOOD SHEAR. A CAP MAY
LIMIT SOME DEVELOPMENT...BUT SYNOPTIC LIFT AND OUTFLOWS FROM
STORMS WILL HELP OVERCOME THE CAP IN PLACES.

VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWING DEVELOPMENT FROM NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO
TO THE FOUR CORNERS. WILL PUT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS IN THE
FORECAST FOR THIS MORNING. WILL ALSO ADD THE MENTION OF SEVERE
STORMS IN THE HWO. MAY NEED TO ALSO INCREASE POPS IN A FEW PLACES
FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 325 AM MDT MON AUG 25 2014

EXISTING CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER JET...AND IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THE REST OF THE NIGHT...WITH SOME DECREASE IN
ACTIVITY THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE BOUNDARY SEEN ON RADAR RACING
SOUTH MOVING THROUGH THE METRO AREA BY 5AM...IS THIS THE FRONT?
MODELS DO SHOW A FRONT ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE TONIGHT WHICH WILL
HELP FOCUS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME DIV Q
FORCING ALOFT THROUGH THE NIGHT.

WE APPEAR TO BE IN ON OF THOSE PATTERNS IN WHICH CONVECTION IS
FAVORED FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH A LULL IN
ACTIVITY MAINLY IN THE MORNING. TODAY WE EXPECT STORMS TO BECOME
SCATTERED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS MIDDAY...WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ON THE PLAINS IN THE AFTERNOON...BECOMING WIDESPREAD
OVER AND NORTH OF THE PALMER DIVIDE IN THE EVENING DUE TO THE
PROXIMITY OF THE SURFACE FRONT...AND STORMS WILL LINGER TIL WELL
AFTER MIDNIGHT ON THE PLAINS.

WITH A FRONT SOUTH OF DENVER AND A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH GO CLOSER TO COOLER NAM GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 143 AM MDT MON AUG 25 2014

ON TUESDAY...THE MDLS ARE IN FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT WITH
A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER COLORADO AND THE UPPER LOW WEST
CENTRAL NV. THE NAM/ECMWF MAINTAIN A CLOSED CIRCULATIONS WHILE
THE GFS KEEPS THE LOW OPEN. THE MDLS DO SHIFT THIS FEATURE
EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL UTAH BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
AHD OF THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT INTO COLORADO SO THERE WILL
BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTN/EVNG TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE FASTER
OF THE THREE MDLS WHILE THE NAM/ECMWF ARE 6-12 HOURS SLOER. THESE
MDLS MOVE THE TROUGH ALG THE CO/UT LINE BY 06Z THU...THEN SLOWLY
DRAG THE FEATURES ACROSS CO THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. SOME
WEAK QG ASCENT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WITH DECENT INSTBY...ESPECIALLY
IN THE AFTN/EVNG PERIODS BOTH DAYS. WL GO WITH SCT/WDSPRD COVERAGE
IN THE MOUNTAINS...WITH SCT POPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN BLO SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH A MIX
OF RAIN/SNOW ABOVE TIMBERLINE ON WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY MORNINGS.
OVERALL THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN AND POTENTIAL FLOODING MAY BE A
LITTLE HIGHER...OR MODERATE CATEGORY...WITH THE SLOER STORM
MOTIONS AROUND 10 KTS FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 0.80-0.90 AT DENVER. TREND IN THE
MDLS CONTINUES TO DRAG A BIT EACH DAY...BUT SHOULD STILL SEE SOME
RECOVERY IN THE TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY...THEN WARMING BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 832 AM MDT MON AUG 25 2014

NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL TODAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...WITH THE BEST TIME BEING 20Z TO
01Z. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO 40 KNOTS...HEAVY RAIN AND HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECT TO FORM LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY MORNING WITH CEILINGS LESS THAN 2000 FEET.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MEIER
SHORT TERM...RTG
LONG TERM...COOPER
AVIATION...MEIER


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.