Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 142105
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
305 PM MDT MON APR 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM MDT MON APR 14 2014

FLOW ALOFT HAS BECOME NORTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA AS UPPER TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE GREAT BASIN. ENOUGH MIXING AND NORTHWEST SURFACE GRADIENT
GENERATING GUSTY WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF THE FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS.
AIRMASS GENERALLY DRY AND STABLE WITH SOME HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT. SURFACE GRADIENT
OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS WEAKENS THIS EVENING...SHOULD SEE WINDS
DECREASE AS A RESULT. WARMER AIR BEGINS TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA
AFTER MIDNIGHT. BUT OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES TO BE FAIRLY
COLD...WITH READINGS IN THE 20S ACROSS THE PLAINS. SOME INCREASE
IN HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO HELP
MODERATE TEMPERATURES. ON TUESDAY...A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL PREVAIL OVER THE AREA AS UPPER RIDGE OVER GREAT BASIN BUILDS
TOWARD COLORADO. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE SOME MID LEVEL
MOISTURE SPREADING INTO THE REGION DURING THE MORNING. THERE MAY
BE ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW TO GENERATE A WAVE CLOUD
ALONG THE FOOTHILLS. LATEST SYNTHETIC SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING
A FAIRLY EXTENSIVE WAVE CLOUD IN AND NEAR THE FOOTHILLS BETWEEN
17Z AND 21Z. THOUGH APPEARS TO BE A BIT OVERDONE...BUT WILL
INCREASE CLOUD ALONG THE FOOTHILLS AND ADJACENT PLAINS DURING THIS
TIME FRAME. AMOUNT OF WAVE CLOUD MAY HAVE AN EFFECT ON HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY. BUT WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION AND TAKING
PLACE...FEEL HIGHS SHOULD GET INTO THE 60S. LOWERED THE HIGHS A
FEW DEGREES ACROSS NORTHERN WASHINGTON AND SOUTHEAST LOGAN
COUNTIES WHERE THERE MAY STILL BE SOME SNOW COVER.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM MDT MON APR 14 2014

THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS COLORADO FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH THE NEXT POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION IN SOME AREAS. MODELS CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE
CONSISTENT WITH EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM SO WILL TREND UPWARDS THE
POPS AND LOWER TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY.
DECENT QG FORCING AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. COULD BE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL AGAIN OVER
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS AND POSSIBLY OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE AS
UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS BEHIND A COLD FRONT. TOO EARLY YET... BUT
MAY NEED MORE WINTER HILITES IN THE MOUNTAINS FOR THIS PERIOD.
OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS...SHOULD SEE PRECIP STARTING AS RAIN AND
THEN TURN OVER TO SNOW LATER WEDNESDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
PRECIP WILL DECREASE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE A
RETURN TO DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY.

SOME DISCREPANCY IN THE MODELS FOR THIS WEEKEND AS EUROPEAN MODEL
SHOWS A WEAK LOW FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WHICH MAY PRODUCE SOME
SHOWERS FOR THE WEEKEND. THE GFS IS WEAKER WITH THIS FEATURE BUT
DOES HAVE A STRONGER WAVE IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH WHICH MOVES
ACROSS COLORADO ON FRIDAY NIGHT. OVERALL..WARMING TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH READINGS AROUND OR A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 304 PM MDT MON APR 14 2014

NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS AREA AIRPORTS BEGINNING TO TREND MORE
EAST SOUTHEAST...THOUGH STILL A BIT NORTHERLY AT KDEN. SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SEE THE CLOCKWISE TREND OF WINDS TO SOUTHEASTERLY BY
02Z...WITH DRAINAGE DEVELOPING BY 05Z. VFR TO CONTINUE WITH SOME
INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE OVERNIGHT. HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE TO
CONTINUE TO INCREASE TUESDAY MORNING ALONG WITH SOME MID LEVEL
MOISTURE. POTENTIAL FOR A WAVE CLOUD DEVELOPING IN AND NEAR THE
FOOTHILLS BY 17Z. CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 14000 FEET AGL.
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY...MAY BE A BIT MORE
SOUTHEAST AT KDEN AND KAPA DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...D-L
LONG TERM...ENTREKIN
AVIATION...D-L



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