Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 171505
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
905 AM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 856 AM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

NO CHANGES AT THIS TIME. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP A DRY
AND MOSTLY STABLE AMS IN PLACE OVER THE CWFA THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW
TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE MTNS AND PALMER DIVIDE THIS AFTN.
THIS ALREADY REFLECTED IN THE CURRENT FORECAST THEREFORE NO
ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE NECESSARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 240 AM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL BE OVER ERN UT/WRN CO WITH WNW FLOW ALOFT.
SOME HIGHER LVL MOISTURE FM ODILE IS SPREADING NE ACROSS SRN CO AND
SOME IF THESE CLOUDS WILL AFFECT SRN AREAS OF FCST AREA THRU THIS
AFTN.  ONCE AGAIN MAY SEE SOME ISOLD HIGH BASED TSTMS OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTN INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

OVER NERN CO A WK LOW LVL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS FCST TO DVLP OVER THE
PALMER DIVIDE THIS AFTN WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME ISOLD HIGH BASED
STORMS AS WELL.  MEANWHILE THIS EVENING SOME DEEPER LOW LVL MOISTURE
MAY MOVE INTO THE FAR NERN PLAINS WITH CAPES RANGING FM 1500-2000
J/KG.  THERE IS SOME HINT THAT A FEW HI BASED STORMS MAY DEVELOP
OVER THE CHEYENNE RIDGE BY LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING AND EVENTUALLY
TAP INTO THE BETTER INSTABILITY OVER THE FAR NERN PLAINS.  THUS WILL
PUT IN SOME LOW POPS OVER THE FAR NERN PLAINS FOR THIS EVENING.
WITH DECENT SHEAR PROFILE AN ISOLD SVR STORM IS POSSIBLE.  AS FOR
HIGHS TODAY 850-700 MB TEMPS RISE ANOTHER DEGREE SO WILL HAVE
READINGS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S OVER NERN CO.  FOR LATE
TONIGHT MAY SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG OVER THE FAR NERN PLAINS
INTO EARLY THU MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

MODELS HAVE THE UPPER RIDGE CENTER RIGHT OVER THE CWA THURSDAY.
BY FRIDAY...A WEAK UPPER LOW IS PUSHING EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
COLORADO. MORE UPPER RIDGING FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. THE FLOW ALOFT IS
NORTHWESTERLY ON THURSDAY...THEN PRETTY MUCH ZONAL THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE SYNOPTIC SCALE ENERGY IS BENIGN THROUGH
THE FOUR PERIODS. THE BOUNDARY LAYER WIND PROGS SHOW PRETTY STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THURSDAY...THE SAME THURSDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH
ENHANCED DRAINAGE PATTERNS. THERE MAY BE A WEAK FRONT AND SOME
UPSLOPE ON FRIDAY...THAT OR MORE NORMAL DIURNAL PATTERNS EXPECTED
...SAME FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. FOR MOISTURE...THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT LOOK PRETTY DRY. MOISTURE INCREASES FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS ARE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S F FROM
WEST TO EAST THURSDAY...WITH MAYBE A FEW 50S F OVER THE EASTERN
BORDER. UPPER 20S TO LOWER 50S F ARE PROGGED FROM WEST TO EAST
THURSDAY NIGHT. BY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...50S F ARE PROGGED
OVER THE ALL THE PLAINS AND FOOTHILLS. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES ARE IN THE 0.30 TO 0.80 INCH RANGE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT...THEN THEY INCREASE INTO THE 0.50 TO 1.20 INCH RANGE FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A BIT OF CAPE PROGGED OVER THE NORTHEAST
CORNER AND HIGH MOUNTAINS FOR LATE DAY THURSDAY. THE CAPE IS MORE
WIDESPREAD WITH HIGHER VALUES FOR LATE DAY FRIDAY. THE QPF FIELDS
HAVE NO MEASURABLE RAINFALL OVER THE CWA THURSDAY THROUGH MID DAY
FRIDAY. THERE IS SOME OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FOR POPS...WILL HAVE NONE THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL GO WITH 10-30% POPS ON FRIDAY...MAINLY IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. FOR TEMPERATURES...THURSDAY`S LOOK
TO BE VERY CLOSE TO TODAY`S. FRIDAY`S READINGS LOOK ABOUT 2-3 C
COOLER THAN THURSDAY`S. FOR THE LATER DAY`S SATURDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...MODELS HAVE UPPER RIDGING ACROSS COLORADO SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN A WEAK UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW IS
AROUND COLORADO MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE QUITE
A BIT MOISTURE AROUND MUCH OF THE FOUR DAYS. THIS HAS INCREASED
QUITE A BIT FROM YESTERDAY`S 00Z MODEL RUNS. TEMPERATURES
GRADUALLY COOL OFF THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 856 AM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

VFR CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. SELY WINDS WILL
TRANSITION TO ENELY THIS AFTN...THEN BACK TO SELY DRAINAGE THIS
EVENING.
&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...COOPER
SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...COOPER


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