Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 171013
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
313 AM MST Tue Jan 17 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 250 AM MST Tue Jan 17 2017

Low and mid-level clouds remain over the southeast corner of the
CWA at this hour, aligned with a southwest-northeast tilted upper
trough axis over the area. The Limon metar in the past few hours
has indicated a 5000-6000 foot cloud ceiling. Local NWS radars
also continue to detect a swath of light precip/snowfall over the
southern half of Lincoln county and southeast corner of Elbert
County. While skies have pretty much cleared north of there,
clearing will be very slow over the southeast corner of the CWA,
perhaps not for another 4-6 hours according to models. However,
the last of the precip should end before morning light. With clear
skies now, still expect to see pockets of fog form in low lying
areas such as along the South Platte River and on the mtn valley
floors during the next couple of hours. Fog may reduce vsbys
below a mile in spots and most if not all of this fog should
dissipate by mid-morning with solar heating and with drier air
mixing down from aloft. Otherwise a dry and warmer day with light
winds. Overall, expect to see max temperatures some 8-12 deg f
above those yesterday. Tonight...clear skies will prevail with the
usual drainage wind pattern setting up with darkness. Lows
tonight about 5 deg f warmer with the warmest readings along the
base of the foothills.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 250 AM MST Tue Jan 17 2017

Benign weather pattern for the next 60 hours with dry conditions
and warmer temperatures for much of the region. Broad weak upper
low will slowly drift into central and southern high plains late
Wednesday and Thursday, but really very limited moisture on the
north and back side of the low as high pressure builds into the
region. Temperatures will rise to above normals through Thursday
with readings at lower elevations remaining in the 40s/50s.

Beyond Thursday, a series of Pacific systems will influence
Colorado weather from Thursday night through at least the middle
of next week with the potential for more snow and colder
temperatures. The first system will spread moisture and snowfall
back into the mountains on Thursday night and Friday. At this
time, snowfall looks to be on the lighter side with mountain top
flow remaining weakly from the southwest and heavier snow
remaining across southwest Colorado. This system tries to
intensify into a closed low as it ejects out into the central
plains on Friday. Model solutions kind of skip over the Front
range and do produce some light qpf over the plains but it does
move out rather quickly. Current low pops on the plains look fine
for now. The next system will continue to bring more snow to the
mountains but focus of storm will be further south over New
Mexico with again mainly light snow over Northern mountains and
dry conditions over lower elevations.

The strongest system will effect the region next Monday and
Tuesday with the best potential for snow on the eastern plains.
The GFS is the most favorable for snow with the upper low over
southwest Kansas, while the European and Canadian solutions of
the energy further north with the low over northeast Colorado
which would result in drier, downslope flow. Still far out but
certainly has some potential for snow and strong winds on the
plains.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 250 AM MST Tue Jan 17 2017

VFR conditions will dominate at Denver area terminals during the
next 24 hours. There is, however, a slight chance that fog could
form at KDEN and KBJC in the next couple of hours. If this fog
forms, it should be shallow and of short duration. It is possible
visibilities could briefly lower to 2-3 miles, but confidence in
this happens remains low at this time. Otherwise, plan on light
south-southeast winds generally under 10 kts through
12z/Wednesday.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Baker
LONG TERM...Entrekin
AVIATION...Baker



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