Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY

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FXUS65 KCYS 192137
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
237 PM MST Sun Nov 19 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 234 PM MST Sun Nov 19 2017

Concerns this period will focus on winds with a high wind event
expected mainly for the wind-prone areas overnight through Monday.
Mild conditions will persist across the CWA through Monday with
dry downslope flow and some sun. Other concern will be across far
se Wy into the southern Panhandle Monday afternoon where these
factors will create at least elevated fire weather conditions. 7H
winds will increase this evening to about 50-60kts over Albany and
western Laramie counties and exceed 60kts over the south Laramie
Range Monday afternoon. Best downward motion looks like it will
remain over and very near the mtns as well as Albany county with
upward motion a little farther east over the high plains. Winds
diminish during the evening as the gradient eases. Will keep
current high wind watch/warning as is, thinking that the high
winds will have some problem progressing much east of the mtns.
A backdoor cool front will then pass over the plains Monday night
with some snow showers increasing over the higher mtns as some
moisture advects over them in northwesterly flow.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 234 PM MST Sun Nov 19 2017

A cool to mild day Tuesday with the coolest temperatures over the
Panhandle as the front holds against the mtns. Some snow showers
will continue over the higher mtns as moisture continues to ride
up the west and nw facing slopes. The rest of the week then looks
mild and mainly dry as the front washes back east Weds and upper
ridging builds over the western CONUS. A shortwave should then
move through the ridge Friday and push the next cold front across
the CWA by late Friday. Little pcpn associated with it. Cooler
Saturday then warmer again Sunday as upper ridging returns to the
region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through Monday)

VFR conditions expected today and through tonight with areas of high
level cirrus pushing eastward over the area.  Low confidence with
the wind forecasts for the southeast Wyoming terminals due to some
mountain wave activity and a stable layer near the surface.  Expect
periodic wind gusts between 30 to 40 knots in these areas through
tonight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 234 PM MST Sun Nov 19 2017

Elevated to potentially critical conditions still expected from
far se Wy into mainly the southern Panhandle Monday afternoon
though the period of critical conditions may be rather short in
duration. Concerns then low Tuesday with cooler temperatures
behind a cool front. Milder again to close out the week with some
breezy to windy periods mainly around the se Wy mtns.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday afternoon
     for WYZ310.

     High Wind Watch from Monday morning through Monday afternoon for
     WYZ101-104-105-107-109-115-118.

     High Wind Warning from 5 PM this afternoon to 8 PM MST Monday
     for WYZ106-110-116-117.

NE...Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday afternoon
     for NEZ313.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RE
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...TJT
FIRE WEATHER...RE



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