Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY

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FXUS65 KCYS 221813
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
1113 AM MST Thu Feb 22 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1106 AM MST Thu Feb 22 2018

Light snow has crept a bit further west across the Nebraska
panhandle, as far west as Scottsbluff and Pine Bluffs. These areas
will see flurries most of the afternoon, with a couple embedded
bands producing accumulating snow. Some places could get as much
as an inch. It looks like Cheyenne will be on the edge of both
this and some weak convection coming off of the mountains late
this afternoon. Maybe some flurries, but a pretty low chance of
accumulation.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 355 AM MST Thu Feb 22 2018

Today...Temperature and dewpoint spreads narrowing over far eastern
Wyoming and western Nebraska, thus have added patchy freezing fog
through mid morning there. Moist southwest flow aloft continues with
perhaps one or two weak shortwave troughs aloft moving overhead and
producing a chance of snow over and near our Snowy, Sierra Madre and
southern Laramie Ranges as well as over our far eastern counties of
the Nebraska panhandle. Continued cold with abundant cloud cover and
700 mb temperatures near -11 Celsius.

Tonight...Orographic type snows continue over and near our western
mountains on moist southwest flow aloft. Dry elsewhere.

Friday...Increasing snow chances across our western half of counties
as another shortwave trough aloft approaches from the main upper
trough over Utah. Best chances will be over the mountains due to
orographics. Continued cold with plentiful cloud cover and 700 mb
temperatures near -11 Celsius.

Friday night...Primary trough aloft moves overhead, with the
greatest snow chances in the evening, then decreasing after midnight
in the wake of the trough.

Saturday...Other than a chance of orographic snow showers over and
near the Snowy and Sierra Madre Ranges in moist northwest flow
aloft, it will be dry due to lack of other lift. A bit warmer east
of I-25 due to more warming downslope west winds.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 355 AM MST Thu Feb 22 2018

Extensive upper-level troughing is expected to dominate the large-
scale weather pattern across much of the CONUS early in the medium
to long range. Low-level height gradients look to remain strong on
Sunday/Monday as numerous waves & associated areas of sfc pressure
falls spread across the northern high plains. That said, windy may
be the best word to describe the general outlook through Monday. A
bit of snow may fall over the mountains, but a general lack of mid
and high level moisture should limit amounts. Temperatures look to
remain generally on the cooler side of seasonal normals, given the
fairly unsettled upper-level pattern advertised by both the GFS/EC
suggesting multiple opportunities for re-inforcing shots of cooler
air.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1106 AM MST Thu Feb 22 2018

MVFR ceilings will develop across most of the area this afternoon,
with some higher ceilings northwest of a KLAR-KTOR line. Light
snow will produce localized IFR conditions in the Nebraska
panhandle, with snow showers producing localized mountain
obscuration in Wyoming, mainly around KLAR. The snow will end this
evening with improving conditions in Wyoming, but low clouds and
fog will redevelop in the Nebraska panhandle with MVFR ceilings
prevailing after 04z and areas of IFR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 355 AM MST Thu Feb 22 2018

No concerns based on projected winds and humidities.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WFOCYS
SHORT TERM...RUBIN
LONG TERM...CLH
AVIATION...WFOCYS
FIRE WEATHER...RUBIN


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