Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY

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FXUS65 KCYS 261748

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
1148 AM MDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 336 AM MDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Clear skies currently over the CWA as the airmass has dried though
some moisture beginning to return to the southern Panhandle where
south to southeast winds have developed. Next few days should see
warm temperatures with sctd mainly afternoon and evening
convection mainly over the plains as southeasterly winds continue
to transport moisture back across the area. Convection should be
isolated today with little upper support seen but decent shear
will be present with the low level southeasterly winds topped by
westerly upper flow. A cool front will sag south across the CWA
tonight and could keep some convection going over the Panhandle
with models hinting at a weak impulse riding by. Cooler especially
over the plains Monday before warming a bit again Tuesday. Main
concerns early next week will be potential for some strong to
severe storms in the afternoons and evenings east of the mtns
given very good directional shear with upper winds turning more
northwesterly in response to building high pressure over the
southwest CONUS.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Saturday night)
Issued at 336 AM MDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Models remain consistent in keeping a broad upper level ridge
over the western Conus through the extended period, with energetic
west-northwest flow overhead. H7 temperatures will range in the
upper single digits to the mid teens through the end of the week,
which will keep max sfc temps generally in the 70s and 80s across
the forecast area. For Tuesday night, a llvl jet developing across
the eastern plains could support strong/severe convection
especially over the Nebraska panhandle through the night. Have
chance to likely PoPs for this scenario since the jet looks rather
potent with around 1000 J/kg of CAPE and 50+ kts of 0-6 km shear
in place. A shortwave rounding the ridge and over Wyoming on
Wednesday will support a return of storms in the afternoon,
especially along and east of the Laramie Range within good upslope
flow. Severe storms are possible with 1000-2000 J/kg of sbcape
and 40+ kts of shear progged, although llvl wind flow will be
rather weak. Rinse and repeat for Thursday, but expect a broader
coverage of activity with help from a backdoor cool front
approaching from the northeast. Somewhat less instability is
progged for Friday, although stronger southerly llvl winds may
support a healthy dose of t-storms once again. A similar story is
progged for Saturday.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1142 AM MDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Latest Local WRF was indicating the potential for a few isolated
thunderstorms this afternoon/evening mainly around the CYS/SNY
after 21z. Any storms that develop will move east/southeast around
20kts and should exit the area around sunset. Otherwise, only
expecting some high based cumulus this afternoon at heights 8-10kft.
A weak boundary is expected to pass through the area tomorrow
morning and cause the wind to shift to the north.

Issued at 336 AM MDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Fire weather concerns will be lower over the next few days with
lighter winds. There will be increasing chances for late day
showers and storms especially over the plains today through
Tuesday with wetting rains from many of these. A weak cool front
will pass across the area tonight.


.CYS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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