Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY

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FXUS65 KCYS 231951
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
151 PM MDT FRI SEP 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 215 PM MDT Fri Sep 23 2016

Active weather pattern across the CWA early this period with
showers and thunderstorms...some strong or even severe...along
with some mtn snows. All this in association with a strong upper
low currently beginning to lift northeast around the Utah/Wyoming
border. band of showers and a few storms now progressing into
central Wyoming and this will continue to move slowly east through
this evening with individual showers and storms in this band moving
quickly north. Some potential for a few strong to severe storms
the rest of this afternoon given modest CAPE values and good
shear. Strong winds the main threat given the fast speeds of any
storms with some marginally severe hail possible as well. Activity
will move into the high plains tonight as the upper low moves
northeast across Wyoming. On Saturday the upper low will move
over the northern plains with downsloping flow expected to dry
things out east of the mtns. Wrap-around moisture will bring some
rain and snow showers to western parts of the CWA with a few
inches of snow over the higher mtns mainly saturday morning. All
pcpn should end Saturday evening as the upper low moves over North
Dakota and the main trof axis moves by the area. Cool saturday
night with dry and mild weather on Sunday.

There also could be a relatively short period of stronger winds in
the wind-prone areas of southeast Wyoming Saturday morning. Will
hold off on a watch as speeds look marginal relatively localized
only for a short time. Still...some gusts around 50 mph possible.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 215 PM MDT Fri Sep 23 2016

A transition to warmer and drier weather is expected through most of
the extended forecast period as upper-level ridging builds back into
the area. The GFS and ECMWF both suggest a weak trough under-cutting
the ridge and lifting across the central Rockies on Wednesday and/or
Thursday, possibly resulting in isolated showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1121 AM MDT Fri Sep 23 2016

IFR conditions at KCDR are expected to improve to MVFR, and likely
VFR within the next hour. Scattered to numerous showers and storms
will develop this afternoon, and are expected to persist well into
the overnight hours. A few strong/severe thunderstorms could occur
today, with strong winds and large hail the primary hazards. Brief
MVFR/IFR ceilings and/or visibilities are possible w/heavier storm
activity. Ceilings between 3K-5K feet AGL are expected for most of
our terminals overnight, although MVFR/IFR conditions are possible
at KRWL. Widespread gusty winds are also likely across much of the
area today, especially over the Nebraska Panhandle where gusts may
approach 40-45 knots.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 215 PM MDT Fri Sep 23 2016

Overall fire weather concerns expected to remain low through the
weekend into early next week. A cold front will move across the
district through this evening with a band of showers and
thunderstorms accompanying it. Breezy and cooler Saturday with
mild and mainly dry weather expected Sunday into early next week.

&&

.CYS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WY...None.
NE...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RE
LONG TERM...CLH
AVIATION...CLH
FIRE WEATHER...RE



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