Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY

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000
FXUS65 KCYS 152113
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
313 PM MDT WED APR 15 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 311 PM MDT WED APR 15 2015

TRICKY FORECAST THIS PERIOD WITH MAIN DIFFICULTIES BEING SNOW
LEVELS AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...AND AT WHAT TIMES THE HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR.

UPPER LOW TAKING SHAPE ALONG THE UTAH/COLORADO BORDER CURRENTLY
WITH AREAS OF RAIN AND SNOW ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.
SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MOVING NORTH TOWARDS THE NEB PANHANDLE
FROM COLORADO AS WELL WITH A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES NOTED IN THIS
ACTIVITY. EXPECT ALL THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE MOVING NORTH AHEAD
OF AN IMPULSE RIDING UP THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW THIS
EVENING THEN THERE SHOULD BE SOME LULL IN THE PCPN OVER THE
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA LATER THIS EVENING INTO THURSDAY BEHIND
THE IMPULSE WHILE THE MAIN UPPER LOW SINKS SLOWLY SOUTHWARD TO THE
4 CORNERS AREA. WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT WINTER WX ADVY AS IS AS THAT
AREA SHOULD STILL SEE MOSTLY SNOW.

CONDITIONS DETERIORATE AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW
DRIFTS SLOWLY ENE ACROSS COLORADO WITH NEXT SHORTWAVE LIKELY
ROTATING NORTH AND ACROSS THE CWA LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. HEAVIEST PCPN LOOKS LIKE IT WILL OCCUR THEN AND COULD GET
SOME DECENT SNOWS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. 700MB TEMPS A BIT WARM
HOWEVER...ABOUT -2C...AND WARM GROUND MAY HINDER ACCUMULATIONS
SOME. WILL HOLD OFF ON ADDITIONAL HILITES AT THIS TIME AND LET
LATER SHIFTS LOOK AT NEWER RUNS. PCPN STILL FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ON
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT THOUGH MORE LIKELY OVER THE NORTH AS THE
IMPULSE CONTINUES TO RIDE NORTH AND NORTHWEST. SNOW LEVELS ALSO
RISING AS THE UPPER LOW FILLS SOME.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM MDT WED APR 15 2015

UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A CLOSED LOW
TRANSLATES EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY
TO LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY WITH WEAK MIDLEVEL ENERGY ROTATING
WESTWARD ACROSS THE CWA. FAIRLY COOL TOO WITH GFS 700 MILLIBAR TEMPS
FAILING TO CLIMB ABOVE 0 DEG C. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT W/
A KICKER SYSTEM DIVING INTO THE DAKOTAS AT 12Z SUN. THIS PUSHES THE
OTHER SYSTEM TO THE EAST AND SENDS A COLD FRONT SOUTH. MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS SHOW ENOUGH H7-H3 MOISTURE TO SUPPORT SHOWERS CONTINUING INTO
SUN. WOULD PROBABLY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW ON SUN...BUT THERMAL
PROFILES WOULD SUGGEST ALL RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX FROM THE NE STATE
LINE INTO THE WESTERN PANHANDLE PRIOR TO FROPA. MAINTAINED LOWER END
POPS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH COOL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. INSTABILITY
SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...SO IT IS HARD TO FORECAST DRY. NOTHING
MAJOR THOUGH. TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY ON THE COOL SIDE FOR MOST OF
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1210 PM MDT WED APR 15 2015

RAIN AND SNOW WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TODAY AND TONIGHT AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE 4 CORNERS
REGION. SNOW WILL MOST LIKELY OCCUR ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN FARTHER EAST. PERIODS
OF MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL OCCUR FOR KRWL/KLAR THROUGH THE
DAY. RAIN IS EXPECTED INITIALLY AT KCYS WITH A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW
LATE TONIGHT...AT WHICH POINT IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. A
FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOW CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
ALL TERMINALS BY LATE TONIGHT WITH IFR OR LOW MVFR CIGS
PREVAILING.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 311 PM MDT WED APR 15 2015

CONCERNS EXPECTED TO BE LOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A COOL TO MILD
AIRMASS WILL RESIDE OVER THE DISTRICTS WITH PERIODS OF RAIN OR
SNOW BRINGING WETTING PRECIPITATION TO MUCH OF THE AREA.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MDT THURSDAY FOR WYZ104-105-
     109-110.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MDT THURSDAY FOR WYZ101-103-
     106.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RE
LONG TERM...CLH
AVIATION...CLH
FIRE WEATHER...RE


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