Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY

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000
FXUS65 KCYS 251011
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
411 AM MDT MON AUG 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM MDT MON AUG 25 2014

AREA OF MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS
OF THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK IMPULSE
MOVING OUT AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NW. THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST OVER MAINLY THE PLAINS THIS
MORNING WITH ADDITIONAL WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY NEAR THE MTNS. PANHANDLE AREAS LOOK
TO BE CAPPED THOUGH SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION MAY MOVE OVER PARTS
OF THE PANHANDLE. REPEAT PERFORMANCE EXPECTED TUESDAY AS THE UPPER
LOW MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS NEVADA AND WEAK IMPULSES LIFT NORTHEAST
AND ACROSS THE CWA AND COMBINE WITH A LITTLE BETTER INSTABILITY.
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RAIN AND A FEW STORMS LOOKING A DECENT BET OVER
THE PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDS AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST
ACROSS UTAH INTO NW COLORADO WITH DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION ATOP MODEST LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW. TEMPERATURES MILD
THROUGH WEDS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM MDT MON AUG 25 2014

A GENERAL CONSENSUS OF THE 00Z MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS A
GOOD HANDLE ON THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN. A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER
EASTERN UT/WESTERN CO OPENS OVER SOUTHERN CO/NORTHERN NM BY THURSDAY
MORNING. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WITH A
TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE NE PANHANDLE WILL FOCUS CONVERGENCE WITH
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AS THE TROUGH PASSES OVER THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SHOWER COVERAGE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...SHIFTING SOUTH AND EAST INTO CO AND KS THURSDAY. SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/TSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
CO BORDER THURSDAY. A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS RETURNS IN
THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH FRIDAY AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SHORTWAVE UPPER RIDGE. A UPPER
TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEAST FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKY MOUNTAINS WILL SHIFT THE FLOW ALOFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY WITH
SOME PACIFIC MOISTURE SPREADING EAST INTO WY. BEST FORCING FOR
SHOWERS WILL BE OVER NORTHERN WY...WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS
POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS OF SOUTHEAST WY. WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE
EACH AFTERNOON THIS WEEKEND WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE
SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS
(70S TO LOWER 80S)...WARMING TO ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY (UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S).

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 345 AM MDT MON AUG 25 2014

A UPPER LEVEL JET MAXIMA RIDING NORTHEAST OF A SURFACE FRONT DRAPED
ACROSS NORTHERN CO WILL PROVIDE LIFT FOR WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTORMS AFFECTING THE SOUTHEAST WY AERODROMES TODAY. THERE
WILL BE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR VISIBILITY WITH THE SHOWERS. CEILINGS
WILL REMAIN VFR FOR THE MOST PART...WITH POSSIBILITY OF MVFR CEILINGS
AND PATCHY FOG EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 340 AM MDT MON AUG 25 2014

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TO REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDWEEK WITH WEATHER EXPECTED TO STAY NON-CRITICAL. AN UPPER TROUGH
WILL MOVE SLOWLY TOWARDS THEN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER MOST
OF THE AREA.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RE
LONG TERM...JAMSKI
AVIATION...JAMSKI
FIRE WEATHER...RE




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