Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY

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FXUS65 KCYS 291713
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1113 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

SATELLITE PIX THIS MORNING SHOW A WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE SPINNING
THRU THE DAKOTAS. AT THE SFC...LAST NIGHTS COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED
WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH IMPRESSIVE PRESSURE RISES IN ITS
WAKE...THOUGH PERHAPS SOMEWHAT LESS THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED.
WINDS HAVE STRUGGLED TO REACH ADVISORY LEVELS OVR THE NRN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE THIS MORNING...SO HAVE OPTED TO CANCEL THE ADVISORY A
FEW HOURS EARLY WITH FORECAST ISSUANCE. LOOKING UPSTREAM A 400-500
MILE GAP OF GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION
TODAY AS DRY NORTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 15-20
DEGREES COOLER TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AS THE POST-FRONTAL
AIR MASS ADVECTS IN. EVEN SO...HIGHS TODAY WILL STILL BE 5-10
DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.

MUCH OF THE SAME EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AS DRY NORTHWEST FLOW
PERSISTS. THE COOLER TEMPERATURES OBSERVED TODAY WILL BE SHUNTED
OFF TO THE EAST ON MONDAY. THE RESULTANT LLVL WAA WILL BOOST HIGHS
BACK INTO THE 60S ACROSS SE WYOMING AND LOW 70S OVR THE WRN
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.

TRANSITORY RIDGE AXIS WILL PASS OVERHEAD ON TUESDAY AS THE LLVL
THERMAL RIDGE AMPLIFIES FURTHER. H7 TEMPERATURES ARE PROGD TO WARM
TO AROUND 7C. FULLY MIXED...THIS WOULD YIELD UPPER 60S WEST OF THE
LARAMIE WITH 70S AND EVEN SOME LOW 80S ACROSS THE ERN PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT WHILE AN
UPPER TROF SLOWLY DIGS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WEDS AND WEDS NIGHT.
AN INITIAL PUSH OF COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA WEDS WITH A
FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT LATER WEDS. A STRONGER PUSH
OF COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE CWA THURSDAY WITH A DECENT CHANCE
FOR RAIN AND SNOW OVER MAINLY THE SW HALF OF THE CWA LATER
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH SOME POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW
AND UPPER JET DYNAMICS OVER THAT AREA FOR A RELATIVELY SHORT TIME.
UNDERCUT MAX TEMPS OVER MUCH OF THE CWA ON THURSDAY AS THEY LOOK
TOO WARM GIVEN EXPECTED CONDITIONS AND THICKNESSES. MAIN UPPER
TROF AXIS WILL PASS EAST OF THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING MOST
PCPN TO AND END BUT A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE INTO
FRIDAY IN NW FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1112 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WITH WINDS EASING AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES.
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE OUT IN THE PANHANDLE TODAY...ESPECIALLY
KSNY AND KBFF.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 339 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT WEDNESDAY WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURNING TO THE DISTRICT ON THURSDAY. A
COOLER AND LESS WINDY DAY AHEAD TODAY BEHIND YESTERDAYS COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE. EVEN WITH THE COOLER TEMPERATURES...HUMIDITIES
WILL STILL BE ABLE TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE 15-20 PERCENT RANGE. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE OVER THE WRN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THIS
MORNING WITH SOME LESSENING EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM BACK INTO THE 70S TO NR 80 BY TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BE
BELOW CRITICAL CRITERIA BOTH TODAY AND MONDAY...BUT WILL INCREASE
WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE ON TUESDAY AND EVERYWHERE TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CAH
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...CAH


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