Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY

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FXUS65 KCYS 011052
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
452 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 427 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

AS OF EARLY THIS MORNING ALL SHOWER ACTIVITY IS NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF A QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE. AS THE WAVE
SLIDES EAST AND DIPS SOUTH...SHOULD SEE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY SLIP
INTO EAST CENTRAL WYOMING. MAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL HOLD OFF
UNTIL LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZES
WITH COOL AIR ALOFT. MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO GENERALLY ONLY
EXPECTING ISOLATED ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. COULD SEE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES TODAY
BUT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE LIMITED. NOT LOOKING FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS BUT WITH RELATIVELY STRONG WINDS ALOFT STRONG
CONVECTIVE GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

SUBSIDENCE WILL SET IN TONIGHT BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE AND DEPARTING
UPPER LEVEL JET. DRY LOW LEVEL AIR AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO DIP INTO THE 40S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AGAIN
TONIGHT. TUESDAY WILL BE SUNNY AND BREEZY EAST TO WINDY WEST.
GUSTS OVER 40 MPH WILL OCCUR WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS 20 TO 30 MPH EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD NORTH ACROSS THE ROCKIES WEDNESDAY WITH
VERY WARM AIR RETURNING TO THE FORECAST AREA. SHOULD SEE 80S WEST
WITH LOWER TO MID 90S FOR PORTIONS OF THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY NOT BE AS STRONG WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BUT
STILL QUITE BREEZY.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 440 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

COOLER WEATHER ACROSS THE CWA THURSDAY WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
AHEAD OF A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROF OVER THE NORTHWEST PART OF
THE COUNTRY. A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY AS THE TROF
NEARS AND SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE TRIES TO LIFT NORTHEAST OVER THE
AREA. CONTINUED MILD THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT MODELS DIVERGE ON
HANDLING OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE WITH THE EC SUPPRESSING IT
SOUTHWARD OF THE CWA WITH A RATHER ZONAL FLOW OVER THE AREA WHILE
THE GFS KEEPS AT LEAST SOME OF IT ADVECTING ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH
SUNDAY. MOST MODELS ARE MORE FAVORING TOWARDS THE EC AND WILL LEAN
IN THAT DIRECTION BUT NOT DRY THINGS OUT COMPLETELY UNTIL ABOUT
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 440 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

VFR EXPECTED OVER ALL AERODROMES THROUGH TUESDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER THE NE HALF OF THE NEB
PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 407 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL LEAVE THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
AND SOUTHEAST WYOMING WITH DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY BUT
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE DRY WITH THE NEXT DECENT SHOT
AT WETTING RAIN NOT UNTIL SATURDAY. MARGINAL CRITICAL FIRE
CONDITIONS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING TODAY...BUT CRITICAL
FIRE CONDITIONS MORE LIKELY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. CRITICAL
CONDITIONS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     EVENING FOR WYZ301-303-304-308-309.

NE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...RE
FIRE WEATHER...SML






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