Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY

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000
FXUS65 KCYS 040527
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1130 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 919 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

GRIDDED FORECASTS UPDATED FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER
OUR CENTRAL COUNTIES FROM NEAR SHIRLEY BASIN TO WHEATLAND.
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN DAKOTAS
OVERNIGHT. RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT. ADJUSTED
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS THE REST OF THE NIGHT...ALONG WITH
WINDS...BASED ON TRENDS AND THE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 254 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A BIT OF CONVECTION FIRING OVER THE NORTH LARAMIE RANGE OTHERWISE
RATHER QUIET OVER THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. LIKE IN RECENT DAYS
EXPECT TO SEE SOME INCREASE IN CONVECTION MAINLY AROUND THE MTNS
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON BEFORE DECREASING THIS EVENING.

WARMER TEMPS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA SATURDAY AS 700MB TEMPS NUDGE
UP ABOUT 2-5 DEGREES WITH MANY AREAS ON THE PLAINS REACHING WELL
INTO THE 90S. WARMING WILL BE AIDED BY A SFC TROF THAT SHOULD EDGE
EAST INTO THE PANHANDLE SAT AFTERNOON. A FEW STORMS COULD FIRE
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN SAT AFTERNOON AS WELL AS ALONG THIS SFC
TROF BUT WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPS SHOULD KEEP ACTIVITY RATHER
ISOLATED.  ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE SAT NIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES.

MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION EXPECTED SUNDAY AS A SFC COOL FRONT
DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH UPSLOPE
FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT HELPING TO INCREASE THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT. A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE
BUT BETTER FORCING LOOKS TO PASS NORTHEAST OF THE CWA...ASSOCIATED
WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUES IN THE LONG TERM AS A COUPLE NORTHERN
FRONTAL SYSTEMS INTERACT WITH SURGING MONSOONAL MOISTURE FROM THE
SOUTH.

STARTING OFF MONDAY...FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM SUNDAY WELL SOUTH OF THE
CWFA IN CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN COLORADO MONDAY AFTERNOON. STILL
SEEING SOME CONVECTION OVER OUR WESTERN MOUNTAINS FROM THE BACK
SIDE OF THE FRONT HANGING UP NEAR CARBON COUNTY. NORTHEAST UPSLOPE
FLOW SHOULD BE IN PLACE MONDAY WITH PRETTY HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AT 850MBS. WOULD EXPECT WIDESPREAD STRATUS EAST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE DURING THE DAY MONDAY. CONTINUED UNDERCUTTING HIGHS
FOR MONDAY...PROBABLY STILL TOO HIGH IF THE STRATUS DOES PERSIST.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ON TRACK FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF BRING THE SHORTWAVE THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PRECIP ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AS IT INTERACTS
WITH THE SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. HEAVY
RAINS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME. STEERING WINDS ARE WEAK AND
PWATS CLIMB TO CLOSE TO 1.5 INCHES. ANOTHER SYSTEM THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY FOR MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING)

IN GENERAL...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE MAY IMPACT KCYS AND/OR KLAR
LATE TONIGHT...WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBYS AND ERRATIC WIND GUSTS
POSSIBLE. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY COULD EXPAND INTO THE WESTERN NEB
PANHANDLE OVERNIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE ON TIMING/LOCATION REMAINS LOW
AT THIS TIME. ISOLATED STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ON SAT AFTERNOON.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 254 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LOW INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH A RATHER MOIST PATTERN EXPECTED. A COOL FRONT WILL PASS
ACROSS SUNDAY BRINGING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MILD TEMPERATURES WILL BE OVER THE AREA MONDAY THEN WARMER AGAIN
BY MIDWEEK WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RUBIN
SHORT TERM...RE
LONG TERM...GCC
AVIATION...TJT
FIRE WEATHER...RE



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