Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY

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000
FXUS65 KCYS 121726
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1126 AM MDT FRI SEP 12 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM MDT FRI SEP 12 2014

TODAY...SATELLITE...RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT
SNOW HAS PRETTY MUCH ENDED ACROSS OUR COUNTIES...WHILE CLOUD COVER
SLOWLY DECREASES FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. THIS TREND WILL
CONTINUE THIS MORNING. WILL LEAVE CURRENT FREEZE WARNING AND FROST
ADVISORY INTACT BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND WITH CLEARING
SKIES ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA...WHICH MAY ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
PLUMMET BELOW FREEZING THERE. RETURN SOUTH WINDS AND DECREASING
CLOUDS WILL AID HIGH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 50S AT MOST LOWER
ELEVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...ONE MORE CHILLY NIGHT ON TAP WITH LIGHT SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST WINDS IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVING
ACROSS MONTANA.

SATURDAY...A DRY AND RELATIVELY WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES TO THE
LARAMIE RANGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN PLAINS SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ALOFT. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES STILL IN THE 60S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS.

SATURDAY NIGHT...NOT AS COLD WITH AIRMASS MODIFICATION AND SOME
CLOUD COVER.

SUNDAY...SLOW MODIFICATION AND WARMING TREND CONTINUES...ALBEIT
TEMPERED BY SLIGHT COLD AIR ADVECTION ON NORTH AND NORTHEAST LOW
LEVEL WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM MDT FRI SEP 12 2014

NO MAJOR CONCERNS IN THE EXTENDED FCST PERIOD AS THE OVERALL WEATHER
PATTERN WILL BE MUCH MORE TRANQUIL THAN WE HAVE SEEN OF LATE. STRONG
SHORTWAVE ADVERTISED BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AFTER 12Z MON. MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE BECOMING ESTABLISHED OVER THE ROCKIES THROUGH MIDWEEK. 700 HPA
TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND NICELY...AVERAGING AROUND 12 DEG C WITH STRONG
SUBSIDENCE GIVING WAY TO PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE EACH AFTN. TEMPS SHOULD
BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. LITTLE MOISTURE
TO SPEAK OF IN THE MIDLVLS...SO IT SHOULD BE DRY AS WELL. THE MODELS
SHOW A RETURN TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON THU AFTN AHEAD OF THE NEXT
MIDLVL SHORTWAVE...ALONG WITH INCREASING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
A TROPICAL SYSTEM / ODILE / CURRENTLY OFF THE WESTERN COAST OF
MEXICO. PCPN CHANCES SHOULD BE ON THE INCREASE LATE IN THE PERIOD
AS A RESULT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1126 AM MDT FRI SEP 12 2014

MAIN DIFFICULTY IS TIMING THE BREAKUP OF WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS EAST
OF THE MTNS THIS AFTERNOON.  CLOUDS HANGING TOUGH LATE THIS MORNING
AND EVEN THICKENING AGAIN OVER THE PANHANDLE.  WILL DELAY ONSET OF
VFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD ATTAIN THAT BY MID-AFTERNOON.
VFR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 334 AM MDT FRI SEP 12 2014

MINIMAL CONCERNS BASED ON PROJECTED HUMIDITIES AND WINDS THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUBIN
LONG TERM...HAMMER
AVIATION...RE
FIRE WEATHER...RUBIN









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