Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY

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000
FXUS65 KCYS 251838
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
1238 PM MDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 350 AM MDT Sat Jun 25 2016

88D still depicting some isolated weak showers over the plains
early this morning associated with a plume of moisture lifting
north and northeast from northern Mexico...looking rather
monsoonal-like. This moisture will be shunted to the south and
east of the CWA today as the upper flow becomes westerly on the
southern periphery of an upper low moving along the US/canadian
border. this systems will push a cool front south across the CWA
this morning and bring about 5-10 degrees of cooling to the area
today along with gusty winds resulting from mixing of faster mid-
level winds. Dry conditions expected though cannot rule out an
isolated shower or two around the mtns near the Colorado border
this afternoon. Mild tonight then a bit warmer Sunday. Next
impulse looks like it will slide east across the region late
Sunday and could set off widely sctd showers and tstms mainly over
the southern panhandle. Similar pattern seen for Monday except a
weak cool front should back west against the mtns as a sfc high
slides into the northern plains. Better shear should allow for
some stronger storms Monday afternoon with southeasterly surface
winds topped by northwesterly winds aloft.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Friday)
Issued at 350 AM MDT Sat Jun 25 2016

An upper level ridge will remain quasi-stationary over the
intermountain west through the medium range period with northwest
flow overhead. The weather will remain fairly active with a number
of embedded shortwaves moving over the forecast area in this flow
pattern. Have at least a slight chance for t-storms each
afternoon over the majority of the CWA. Southerly sfc flow over
the plains will advect moisture into this area on Tuesday with
resultant sbcapes progged to be around 2000 J/kg in the
afternoon. With 40-50kts of shear in place as well, could
certainly see severe storms, mainly across the the plains. A cool
front will drop south across the area Tuesday night bringing
slight cooler temps for Wednesday along with a shift of sfc winds
to the north-northeast, and thus an added upslope component to
generate convection. A return of southeasterly sfc flow on
Thursday will bring back higher values of llvl moisture and
overall instability, and again could see a few storms intensify
within 40 kts of deep layer shear. Friday looks to be very
similar.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1220 PM MDT Sat Jun 25 2016

Expect a period of VFR conditions for most terminals through 18z
Sunday. The only exception is KCYS where short-range forecast
information suggests the possibility of weak convection betwee
21-02z. These showers/thunderstorms will be moisture starved, so
for now have just kept VCSH mention in the TAF at KCYS. Will watch
this area closely for development this afternoon. Otherwise,
expect VFR conditions with lessening winds thru the evening.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 350 AM MDT Sat Jun 25 2016

Critical fire weather conditions should occur once again this
afternoon into this evening over fire weather zone 301 with dry
air and gusty winds behind a cool front that will pass across this
morning. Less wind is expected Sunday into Monday with increasing
chances for showers and tstms especially Monday.

&&

.CYS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WY...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for WYZ301.

NE...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RE
LONG TERM...RJM
AVIATION...CAH
FIRE WEATHER...RE



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