Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY

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000
FXUS65 KCYS 170031
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
631 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 457 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

WARM AND DRY WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE THEME THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER INFLUENCE OVER
SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. CURRENT SATELLITE IS
SHOWING SOME CONVECTIVE CLOUDS OVER THE WEST...BUT THERE IS VERY
LITTLE VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
TO SEE A SPRINKLE OR TWO REACHING THE GROUND HERE OR THERE...BUT
THE CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAIN IS NEAR ZERO. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL
MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING
AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LIFT FOR A FEW
ECHOS ON RADAR AS THE WAVE PASSES THROUGH THE AREA...BUT WITH SUCH
DRY LOW LEVELS IT WILL BE TOUGH FOR MUCH MORE THAN SPRINKLES
THROUGH TONIGHT.

VIRTUALLY NO CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE RAIN WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BE ALONG THE FRONT RANGE THURSDAY
WHICH WILL ALSO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK. HIGHS WILL BE BE
WELL INTO THE 80S OVER THE PLAINS AND EVEN INTO THE MID 90S FOR
PORTIONS OF THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

ANOTHER WARM DAY FRIDAY BUT A COOL FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS DURING
THE DAY WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT. MILDER TEMPERATURES WILL THEN SETTLE OVER THE
REGION OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SFC HIGH MOVES
DOWN THE HIGH PLAINS THEN SHIFTS EAST SLOWLY DURING THE EARLY PART
OF NEXT WEEK. A COMPLICATING FEATURE WILL BE A CUTOFF LOW THAT
WILL INITIALLY BE OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SATURDAY. LATEST EC HAS
CHANGED IN THAT IT NOW LIFTS THIS SYSTEM SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THUS SPREADS SOME QPF ACROSS THE CWA FROM LATE
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. GFS KEEPS PCPN TO THE SOUTH FOR THE MOST
PART. FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN A MAINLY DRY FCST BUT MAY VERY WELL
HAVE TO BRING IN SOME PCPN IF MODELS BECOME MORE CONSISTENT WITH
THIS MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 630 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THRU THE UPCOMING 24
HOUR PERIOD. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPSTREAM STREAM OF CLOUDS
ON THE DOORSTEP. THESE WILL MOVE THRU SITES TONIGHT PRODUCING
SCT200-250. WILL SEE SHALLOW CONVECTION AGAIN AFTER 19Z
WEDNESDAY. ASIDE FROM SOME ENHANCED AFTERNOON CLOUDINESS...THESE
WILL NOT HAVE ANY AFFECT ON AVIATION CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE WARM AND DRY WEATHER
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA
FRIDAY. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY BUT
OVERALL CHANCES FOR WETTING RAINS ARE LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND
COOLER FRIDAY AND GENERALLY REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...BUT  STILL NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. DRY THIS
WEEKEND WITH VERY LITTLE CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIPITATION. DRY
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE NEXT WEEK WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES
RETURNING.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...HAHN
FIRE WEATHER...SML





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