Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY

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491
FXUS65 KCYS 271123 AAA
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
523 AM MDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.UPDATE...for the early morning aviation package.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 230 AM MDT Fri May 27 2016

More chances for showers and thunderstorms today. Some of this
activity is expected across the Nebraska Panhandle but that will
mainly be associated with wrap around precipitation on the
backside of a shortwave which will slowly move from western Kansas
into central Nebraska today. The other area of precipitation will
be convectively driven across some of the higher terrain in
southeast Wyoming. Looking at garden variety thunderstorms with
no threat of severe storms. High temperatures today will mainly be
in the 60s across the forecast area.

Saturday will bring slightly warmer temperatures with highs from
the mid 60s into south central Wyoming to the lower 70s for the
Nebraska Panhandle. Afternoon showers and thunderstorms will once
again develop with severe thunderstorms unlikely. Mainly looking
at isolated coverage.

The warming trend will continue Sunday with highs mainly in the
70s across the area with highs near 80 into the Nebraska
panhandle. A weak shortwave ridge will generally suppress chances
for showers and thunderstorms on Sunday with the main chances in
and around the mountains of southeast Wyoming. Severe
thunderstorms are again unlikely.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Thursday)
Issued at 230 AM MDT Fri May 27 2016

Active pattern to start next week off with scattered afternoon and
evening showers and thunderstorms Monday into Tuesday as a low
amplitude upper trough associated with an upper low moving east
across Montana moves east across the forecast area. Models bring a
cold front down across the area Tuesday with slightly cooler
temperatures and less moisture around Wednesday, with a chance of
thunderstorms in the mountains. Cooler temperatures above 9000 ft
continue through Wednesday then we see hints of a warmup for the
higher terrain by late next week. Overnight lows don`t really get
significantly above 32 degrees each night through at least
Wednesday which tells us snowmelt process should remain moderate
with the possibility of an increase in snowmelt rates towards the
end of next week as an upper ridge builds in from the west and we
see warming temperatures at 700 mb.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 523 AM MDT Fri May 27 2016

A band of showers that is slowly inching westward across the
western Nebraska Panhandle is producing MVFR ceilings at Sidney
will continue spreading periodic MVFR category to Cheyenne
eastward into the Panhandle through the morning as the upper low
over eastern Colorado slowly slips northward. Only change from the
previous forecast this morning was to drop ceilings down to MVFR
prevailing at Sidney. Otherwise, brought in periods of showers and
thunderstorms to Laramie, Cheyenne, Scottsbluff, Alliance and
Sidney through the day today. Latest NAM continues to advertise
IFR at Sidney this evening. Latest HRRR and GFS not going as low
on ceilings in the Panhandle tonight...so trended down a bit for
the evening at Sidney but no significant changes elsewhere with
most showers ending by mid evening.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 244 AM MDT Fri May 27 2016

No fire weather concerns through the middle of next week.
Temperatures will be near normal with chances for showers and
thunderstorms nearly every afternoon, especially over the
mountains of southeast Wyoming.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 244 AM MDT Fri May 27 2016

Reservoir releases will continue to drive the river flooding
across the lower North Platte River in the weeks ahead. Elsewhere
into the mountains of southeast Wyoming, snow melt will continue
at a relatively slow and steady pace through the middle of next
week given the expected diurnal temperatures trends. By next
weekend warmer weather is looking more likely with increases in
snow melt a good bet. between now and then the overall risk for
flooding on the upper North Platte and Little Snake rivers is
low.

&&

.CYS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WY...None.
NE...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...JFG
AVIATION...JFG
FIRE WEATHER...SML
HYDROLOGY...SML



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