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000
FXUS65 KCYS 172141
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
341 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)

ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS NOW OCCURRING OVER THE MT NS OF
SE WYOMING BUT NOT MAKING MUCH PROGRESS EASTWARD AT THIS TIME.
EXPECT ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE SOME FOR THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON AS WELL AS SPREAD OVER MAINLY SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE MOVING OUT. A FEW SEVERE STORMS STILL
A DECENT BET. CLEARING OUT LATER TONIGHT.

LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON
AND EVENING CONVECTION EXPECTED. SEVERE PARAMETERS NOT AS
FAVORABLE AS SHEAR SHOULD BE LESS AND DRIER AIR SHOULD MOVE
FARTHER INTO THE PLAINS BEHIND A SURFACE TROUGH. CLEAR TUESDAY
NIGHT THOUGH A FEW LINGERING STORMS MAY BE OVER THE PANHANDLE IN
THE EARLY EVENING. DRY AND WARMER WEDS AS SW UPPER FLOW SPREADS
OVER THE CWA WITH QUITE BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER WESTERN PARTS OF
THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)

ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

SURFACE TROUGH OUT IN THE PANHANDLE THURSDAY MORNING IS FORECAST
TO SHIFT EAST INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THURSDAY LOOKS DRY FOR ALL AREAS WITH 700MB TEMPERATURES CLIMBING
TO +16C. SHOULD PROVIDE A PRETTY GOOD CAP ON CONVECTION.

BY THURSDAY EVENING...ENERGY FROM THE UPPER LOW MOVING INTO THE
IDAHO PANHANDLE BEGINS TO MOVE INTO WESTERN WYOMING AND ANOTHER
LEE SIDE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE PANHANDLE. THOUGH THE GFS
REMAINS DRY...THE NEW ECMWF CONCENTRATING QPF OVER THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE AND EASTERN NIOBRARA COUNTIES FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
CONTINUED THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS IN THIS AREA FOR FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

BOUNDARY STAYS OVER THE PANHANDLE AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS INTO
NORTHERN MONTANA. ENERGY FROM THIS LOW SHOULD GIVE US ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. HOPEFULLY...FOLKS GET SOME BENEFICIAL RAINS FROM THESE
THUNDERSTORMS AS WE ALL COULD USE SOME RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 341 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVER THE
AREA THIS EVENING WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN THE
STRONGER STORMS MAINLY OVER THE PANHANDLE.  SOME MVFR/IFR CIGS
POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING MAINLY FROM KCYS-KSNY IF
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE RETURNS OVERNIGHT IN UPSLOPE FLOW.  VFR BY LATE
TUESDAY MORNING THEN WIDELY SCTD SHOWERS AND TSTRMS REDEVELOPING
OVER THE LARAMIE RANGE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

NO CONCERNS SEEN THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. CONCERNS WILL INCREASE OUT WEDNESDAY AS
WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE. AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WEDNESDAY
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. CONCERNS CONTINUE THE
MID AND LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN AND GUSTY
WINDS OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOONS. FUELS CURRENTLY STILL NON-CRITICAL
BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH. OTHERWISE DRY AND WARMER WEATHER EXPECTED
TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RE
LONG TERM...CLAYCOMB
AVIATION...CLAYCOMB
FIRE WEATHER...RE