Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY

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000
FXUS65 KCYS 021731
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1131 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

CURRENT RADAR MOSAIC ACROSS THE REGION SHOWS A WEAKENING MCS OVER
NEBRASKA WITH REMNANT BANDS OF SHOWERS AND TSTORMS QUICKLY MOVING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT THIS
ACTIVITY TO PUSH SOUTH INTO COLORADO SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. THERE
HAVE BEEN SOME PRETTY STRONG WINDS WITH THIS MCS...WITH WINDS
STILL GUSTING BETWEEN 40 TO 50 MPH AT TIMES. WINDS WILL ALSO
SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

THURSDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER COMPARED TO EARLIER THIS WEEK DUE
TO THE COMBINATION OF A WEAK COOL FRONT AND OUTFLOW FROM THE MCS
EARLIER THIS MORNING. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80 ARE EXPECTED
WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED BY THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING. THIS THUNDERSTORMS
MAY LINGER INTO TONIGHT. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE RATHER WEAK
WITH LIMITED CAPE AND MIDLEVEL INSTABILITY. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES MAYBE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER COMPARED TO THURSDAY. SHOULD BE A PLEASANT START TO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

NEXT POTENTIAL FOR STRONG OR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SATURDAY
AS TEMPERATURES INCREASE INTO THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S ONCE AGAIN.
AMPLE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...AS IT HAS BEEN
SINCE MAY WITH DEWPOINTS LIKELY IN THE 50S TO MID 60S. KEPT POP
BETWEEN 10 TO 25 PERCENT FOR NOW DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES...EVEN
THOUGH MODEL SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE HIGH CAPE VALUES OVER 3000 J/KG
AND LOWERING CIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA.
HOWEVER...ANY STRONG OR SEVERE TSTORMS MAY BE VERY ISOLATED OR
FURTHER TO THE NORTHEAST DUE TO AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS FROM THE GREAT BASIN REGION.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 AM MDT  THU JUL 2 2015

STATUS QUO THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH AN ACTIVE WET PATTERN TO
CONTINUE. THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WELL
INTO NEXT WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EVERY DAY.
THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL REMAIN AN OPEN SOURCE OF MOISTURE WHILE A
STUBBORN NORTHERN STREAM WILL BE LOCKED IN ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CONUS. SURFACE HEATING AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BE ENOUGH TO POP OFF A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BUT NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVES WILL ENHANCE COVERAGE AND STRENGTH OF
THUNDERSTORMS AT LEAST A FEW DAYS. THE NORTHERN STREAM INFLUENCE
ALSO MEANS THERE WILL BE A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY LATER INTO THE EVENING THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
WITH THUNDERSTORMS EVEN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1129 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. USED LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE
ON TIMING OF THUNDERSTORMS. AIRPORTS MOST AFFECTED WILL BE
KBFF...KSNY AND KCYS FROM AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING CONVECTION.
WEST WINDS THIS EVENING SHOULD RELIEVE ANY PROBLEMS WITH LOW
CLOUDS TONIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 330 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ANTICIPATED LATE THIS WEEK AND THROUGH
THE WEEKEND DUE TO RECENT WETTING RAINFALL AND HIGHER DAYTIME
HUMIDITIES BETWEEN 25 TO 40 PERCENT IN ADDITION TO LIGHT WINDS.
SHOWERS AND TSTORMS WILL OCCUR EACH DAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING
AND WESTERN NEBRASKA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...SML
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...TJT



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