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000
FXUS65 KCYS 160024
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
624 PM MDT SAT JUN 15 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 PM MDT SAT JUN 15 2013

A BIT OF CONVECTION FIRING OVER THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE AT THIS
TIME BUT NOT HOLDING TOGETHER MUCH AS IT LEAVES THE MTNS. THIS
LIKELY A RESULT OF SOME CAPPING CONTINUING OVER THE PLAINS. STILL
MAY SEE SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS EVENING OVER THE PLAINS
THOUGH LACK OF SIG FORCING WILL HINDER IT. ANY THAT DO ORGANIZE
COULD GET QUITE STRONG OR SEVERE OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN PARTS OF
THE AREA. ACTIVITY SHOULD END/MOVE OUT BY MID EVENING WITH MAINLY
CLEARS SKIES FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS LOOKING A BIT BETTER FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS UPPER
IMPULSES TRAVERSE THE REGION PROVIDING A BIT MORE LIFT. ACTIVITY
SHOULD ALSO BE AIDED BY A SECONDARY PUSH OF COOLER AIR DOWN THE
HIGH PLAINS WHICH WILL INCREASE SHEAR.  DECENT INSTABILITY SHOULD
ALSO EXIST MAINLY OVER THE PANHANDLE. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER
OTHERWISE AS UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST MOVES LITTLE THROUGH MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM MDT SAT JUN 15 2013

LONG TERM LOOKS TO BE A COMMON PATTERN SEEN DURING PAST SEVERAL
WEEKS WITH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AXIS IN PANHANDLE. SFC FLOW
WILL SHIFT LITTLE MORE SOUTH ON TUE AND INCREASE WITH SW FLOW
ALOFT. STILL CHC FOR CONVECTION FROM LARAMIE RANGE EAST INTO
PANHANDLE WITH BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN WITH DEEPER THETA-E RIDGE
PROFILE. BY WED LARGE UPPER LOW OVER PACIFIC NW WILL SHIFT FARTHER
INLAND AND INCREASE SW FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL INCREASE DRYING
ACROSS WESTERN CWA AND SHIFT DEEPER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY BACK INTO
NE PANHANDLE. WITH MORE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW INFLUENCE INTO
SATURDAY...WILL KEEP BEST CHC OF CONVECTION INTO PANHANDLE. TEMPS
WILL WARM WED THROUGH SATURDAY 5-10 DEG ABOVE NORMAL AS +15C TO
+19C 700MB TEMPS SHIFT OVER THE CWA. SLA

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 621 PM MDT SAT JUN 15 2013

THROUGH 03Z...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM CHEYENNE TO SIDNEY...
VFR OTHERWISE. AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS SETS
UP FROM CASPER TO SIDNEY WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY...PRODUCING LOCALIZED MVFR ALONG WITH
GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 303 PM MDT SAT JUN 15 2013

NO BIG CONCERNS ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH FUELS
REMAINING NON-CRITICAL FOR THE TIME BEING. AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL CONTINUE TO BE LOW OVER WESTERN DISTRICTS ALONG
WITH SOME BREEZINESS AT TIMES. WIDELY SCATTERED MAINLY LATE DAY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM MAINLY THE LARAMIE
RANGES EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS BUT DRY LIGHTNING NOT EXPECTED
TO BE MUCH OF A PROBLEM AS DECENT RAINFALL SHOULD FALL FROM MOST
OF THE ACTIVITY.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RE
LONG TERM...SLA
AVIATION...RUBIN
FIRE WEATHER...RE