Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY

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FXUS65 KCYS 231200
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
600 AM MDT THU JUN 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today Through Saturday)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Thu Jun 23 2016

Today/tonight...Marginal risk of severe thunderstorms from the Storm
Prediction Center looking on track along and east of I-25 this
afternoon and evening. Surface trough and low and mid level theta-e
ridge axis lies across our eastern counties. CAPE will be between
1000 and 2000 J/kg with shear around 20 knots. Added mention of
small hail and gusty winds to thunderstorms this afternoon and
evening. Storms will mostly end this evening with loss of daytime
heating. Compromised between NAM and GFS MOS for high temperatures.

Friday/Friday night...Main change from today will be warmer mid
level temperatures that will inhibit thunderstorm development longer
in the afternoon and also limit areal coverage of storms. Still
though, looks like enough moisture/instability to initiate at least
isolated afternoon and evening thunderstorms mainly along and east
of Interstate 25. Storms will be weaker than those of today as CAPES
fall off into the 500 to 1000 J/kg range.

Saturday...Rather strong cold front for late June moves across early
in the day with a drier and more stable airmass in place for
Saturday afternoon, thus no showers or thunderstorms expected. NAM
and GFS MOS highs were rather close and accepted.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Thu Jun 23 2016

Frontal boundary to lay up against the east slopes of the Laramie
Range Saturday night into Sunday. Right now it looks pretty dry
and kept PoPs out of the forecast through Sunday afternoon.

Start to see low level moisture return to the Panhandle and for
southeast Wyoming east of the Laramie Range for Monday. GFS
forecast dewpoints close to 60F in the Panhandle Monday afternoon
and with the boundary still along the Laramie Range...we could see
a pretty good chance for convection Monday afternoon and evening.

Boundary remains stationary for much of the first half of next
week...so we could be looking at daily chances for thunderstorms
through at least Wednesday. Best chances will be in the Panhandle
where low level moisture will be greatest.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 557 AM MDT Thu Jun 23 2016

Isolated thunderstorms this morning near the Rawlins site and
again this afternoon and early evening. Isolated to scattered
thunderstorms this afternoon and evening near the rest of the TAF
sites, most numerous near the Laramie, Cheyenne and Scottsbluff
sites. VFR prevails, except for brief MVFR in showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 300 AM MDT Thu Jun 23 2016

Dry and windy conditions to continue for the end of this week with
a more unsettled pattern returning next week. As for
today...showers and thunderstorms will develop with wetting rain
chances confined to the mountains and locations east of the
Laramie Range out over the Nebraska Panhandle. A cold front will approaching
from the north Friday with most of southeast Wyoming and Nebraska
on the south side of the front Friday. Westerly winds to pick up
significantly Friday ahead of the front. Warm temperatures
combined with gusty winds and low humidities are likely from
Cheyenne west to Rawlins and north to Douglas. Since fuels are
ready in FWZ 301...decided to issue a fire weather watch for
Friday.

&&

.CYS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WY...Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening
     for WYZ301.

NE...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUBIN
LONG TERM...GCC
AVIATION...RUBIN
FIRE WEATHER...GCC


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