Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS65 KCYS 242311
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
411 PM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 411 PM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

MSAS PRESSURE TENDENCY TRENDS OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS INDICATE
PRESSURE FALLS ARE STEADILY INCREASING OVER THE HIGH
COUNTRY...WHILE THE LEESIDE TROUGH IS WEAKENING. AS A RESULT...THE
GRADIENT IS ON THE SLOW BUT STEADY WEAKENING TREND WHICH SHOULD
REMAIN THE TREND THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
CANCELLED THE HIGH WIND WARNING EARLY AS THE THREAT FOR STRONG
WINDS IS PRETTY MUCH OVER DUE TO THE RELAXING GRADIENT.
HOWEVER...COULD SEE BURSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WIND GUSTS IN WIND
PRONE AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF I-25 THROUGH THIS EVENING IN THE
WAKE OF THE MIDLVL WAVE DEPARTING TO THE SOUTHEAST. SCATTERED LIGHT
SHOWERS...MOSTLY OF THE RAIN VARIETY...ARE MOVING SOUTHEAST THRU
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL SEE THIS CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING AS THE MIDLVL SHORTWAVE MOVES OVERHEAD.

A 110 KT UPPER LEVEL JET OVER WYOMING NOW WILL MOVE OVER THE
PANHANDLE OVERNIGHT WITH LLVL WINDS STRENGTHENING. BASED ON
FORECAST SOUNDINGS THO...A RATHER STARK INVERSION WILL BE IN PLACE
AROUND 875 MB AND WILL KEEP THE STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT. WITH THAT
SAID...IT WILL BE GUSTY TONIGHT FOR MANY PANHANDLE LOCATIONS WITH
GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 MPH ESPECIALLY ALONG EXPOSED RIDGETOPS BUT
SHOULD REMAIN UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA.

OTHER THAN GUSTY WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH THE NEAR TERM...NO MAJOR
WEATHER IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY OR MONDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES THROUGH THIS TIME WITH MUCH
DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE CWA AND MINIMIZING ANY CHANCE FOR
PRECIP. STRONG WAA ALOFT AND A PERSISTENT BUT MARGINAL SW-NE
GRADIENT WILL KEEP THE WIND PRONE AREAS IN A ZONE OF HIGHER GAP
WINDS THROUGH MONDAY. THE LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE WITHIN
THE FLOW KEEPS THE GRADIENT FROM BECOMING STRONG...SO NO HIGH
WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. H7 TEMPS WILL JUMP TO BETWEEN
4-6C ON MONDAY WITHIN THE WAA PATTERN AND UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WITHIN ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. SFC TEMPS LOOK TO PEAK NEAR RECORD
VALUES IN THE 60S ACROSS THE PLAINS AS A RESULT. SHOULD BE A VERY
NICE DAY WITH ONLY BREEZY WINDS IN PLACE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 PM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

QUITE MILD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CWA TUESDAY AS THE
UPPER RIDGE AXIS PASSES ACROSS WITH TROFFING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
ALLOWING FOR DOWNSLOPE FLOW. ON WEDNESDAY A WEAKENING UPPER SYSTEM
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH SCTD RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY
OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA. A PACIFIC COOL FRONT
WILL ALSO PASS ACROSS KNOCKING OFF ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES FOR MAXS
FROM TUESDAY. THURSDAY LOOKING GENERALLY DRY WITH SEASONAL TEMPS
AS ANOTHER SHORT RIDGE TRANSLATES ACROSS. MODELS THEN DIVERGE FOR
SOLUTIONS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH THE GFS DIGGING A SIGNIFICANT
SHORTWAVE SOUTHWARD OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND BREAKS OUT PCPN
ACROSS THE AREA FRI NIGHT AND SATURDAY WHILE THE EC MOVES A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE FARTHER EAST AND KEEPS THE CWA DRY. WILL FAVOR
THE EC AS IT HAS BETTER OVERALL SUPPORT BUT SHADE IN SOME LOW POPS
ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY FOR NOW. OTHERWISE A
COLDER PUSH OF CANADIAN AIR SHOULD MOVE INTO THE AREA TO CLOSE OUT
THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 411 PM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL OVER ALL TERMINALS THROUGH SUNDAY. THERE
WILL BE SOME WIDELY SCTD SHOWERS MAINLY THIS EVENING AND A PERIOD
OF MVFR CIGS IS POSSIBLE IN THEIR VCTY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 411 PM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

NO MAJOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA THIS WEEKEND...BUT ALL OTHER PARAMETERS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE NON-CRITICAL.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJM
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...RE
FIRE WEATHER...RJM



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.