Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY

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000
FXUS65 KCYS 270947
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
347 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

TODAY...DECENT RAIN CHANCES TODAY FOR MUCH OF OUR COUNTY WARNING
AREA AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT OVER CENTRAL WYOMING THIS MORNING
SLOWLY MOVES EAST INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA BY
THIS EVENING. RELATIVELY PLENTIFUL LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE
PRESENT AND WITH BEST UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION ACROSS OUR EASTERN
COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON...WILL PAINT HIGHEST POPS THERE. MILD RAIN
SHADOW EFFECT WILL BE NOTED FROM WHEATLAND TO CHEYENNE WHERE LOW
LEVEL WINDS WILL BE DOWNSLOPE. COOLER DAY WITH MORE CLOUD COVER AND
IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING COLD FRONT.

TONIGHT...QUICK DRYING OUT THIS EVENING IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ALOFT AND WITH LOW AND MID LEVEL DRYING.

FRIDAY...RIDGING DEVELOPS OVERHEAD AND WITH LIMITED LOW AND MID
LEVEL MOISTURE AND MINIMAL LIFT...DRY CONDITIONS ON TAP EXCEPT FOR
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO OVER OUR SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE
RANGES. DECENT WARMING TREND BASED ON HEIGHT AND THICKNESS CHANGES.

FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...TRANSITORY RIDGING ALOFT
MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES...WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
DEVELOPING OVER OUR COUNTIES...INDUCING SURFACE LEE TROUGHING AND A
PROGRESSIVE WARMING TREND AS 700 MB TEMPERATURES WARM TO NEAR 16
CELSIUS BY LATE SATURDAY. WITH LIMITED LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE
AND WARM TEMPERATURE ALOFT INCREASING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...CIN...
THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES LOOK QUITE SLIM.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS
A STRONG UPPER HIGH TAKES AHOLD OF THE EASTERN CONUS. A CONSTANT
STREAM OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WITH EMBEDDED PIECES OF VORTICITY
WILL MOVE UP AND OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS TIME.
MAINTAINED THE IDEA OF SLIGHT CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WITHIN THIS FLOW PATTERN...KEEPING THE
EMPHASIS OF HIGHER POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
QUITE WARM IN THE 80S AND 90S WITH SUNDAY LOOKING TO BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD. SUNDAY COULD ALSO BE A BIT BREEZY AHEAD
OF A FRONT THAT IS PROGGED TO SWING THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY
MORNING. RIGHT NOW...MINIMUM HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S...BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON
WHETHER CONDITIONS END UP DRIER THAN CURRENT FORECAST FOR POSSIBLE
FIRE WEATHER ISSUES SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS REMAIN A POSSIBILITY OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY
AT KRWL. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING
WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST AND BECOMING GUSTY AT 20 TO
25 KTS. SHOWERS AND T-STORMS LOOK TO DEVELOP IN THE LATE MORNING
OUT WEST AND ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS THRU THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. LIKELY TO SEE GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS WITH
T-STORM ACTIVITY AND PERHAPS BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 347 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

MINIMAL CONCERNS THROUGH FRIDAY AS WINDS AND HUMIDITIES REMAIN AT
OR BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. WILL NEED TO WATCH CONVERSE COUNTY
OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HUMIDITIES WILL BE NEAR
CRITICAL VALUES WITH GUSTY AFTERNOON WINDS.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUBIN
LONG TERM...RJM
AVIATION...RJM
FIRE WEATHER...RUBIN


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