Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY

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FXUS65 KCYS 261125
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
525 AM MDT FRI AUG 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 305 AM MDT Fri Aug 26 2016

Cyclonic flow around a northern Rockies trough will continue for
one more day before the pattern flattens this weekend and into
early next week. KCYS 88D depicts persistent shower activity
across east central WY early along with a few embedded lightning
strikes. This activity will continue to lift northeast towards SD
thru daybreak. Aside from a couple of hundredths of precip...do
not envision any impact. Latest HRRR even suggest the light
shower activity nr Denver currently to lift northeast towards
Sidney by around sunrise as well. Attention then shifts to a
shortwave that will lift northeast into the CWA by afternoon.
Although morning cloud cover may delay destabilization somewhat,
expect enough breaks/warming to initiate convection first in the
vicinity of the Laramie Range 12-2P. SBCAPES progd around 1000
j/kg and deep layer shear of around 35 knots should be sufficient
for a few strong to marginally severe storms ovr the ern plains.
As a result have added small hail/gusty wind mention to the SE WY
plains 12-3P and into the W Nebraska Panhandle 3-6 PM. The
cyclonic pattern persists this evening, which will act to linger
convective activity until midnight, although coverage will
decline.

Flow becomes zonal on Saturday and Sunday as all of the rain
generating ingredients are shunted eastward into the central
plains. As a result, expect a dry weekend with temperatures
rebounding back into the 70s west and 80s east. Minimum relative
humidities will fall to near critical thresholds across SE WY over
the weekend which along with marginal winds will enhance fire
danger. Will likely even see a few low 90s across lowest
elevations by Sunday.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 305 AM MDT Fri Aug 26 2016

Sunday night/Monday...Looks like a quiet period precipitation wise
with warm temperatures aloft and limited moisture availability. Mild
temperatures with highs in the 80s.

Tuesday...Mild temperatures continue per thickness and 700 mb
temperatures. With limited moisture, no showers or thunderstorms
expected.

Wednesday...Ridge axis aloft moves to our east, leaving our forecast
area in southwest flow aloft. Moisture still looks limited, thus
continuation of a dry forecast except for isolated storms over our
southwest mountains.

Thursday...Better chance for monsoonal type moisture to creep into
our southwest counties, thus will continue with a chance of
thunderstorms over our Snowy and Sierra Madre Ranges in the
afternoon and evening. Temperatures still on the mild side.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 522 AM MDT Fri Aug 26 2016

Wyoming TAFS...VFR. Scattered to broken ceilings from 5000 to 9000
feet AGL. Isolated thunderstorms near Laramie and Cheyenne from
18Z to 01Z.

Nebraska TAFS...VFR. Scattered to broken ceilings from 4000 to
8000 feet AGL. Isolated thunderstorms from 18Z to 02Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 305 AM MDT Fri Aug 26 2016

One more cool day ahead as a weather disturbance lifts across the
CWA. Thunderstorms, some of which may become strong, will develop
for areas along and east of the Laramie Range this afternoon and
evening. This activity will dissipate by midnight. Dry, warm and
breezy conditions return to the region over the weekend. Minimum
relative humidities will fall to around 15 percent and wind gusts
of 20-25 mph will certainly be a possibility. So, expect fire
danger to elevate on Saturday and especially on Sunday. Stay tuned
for additional information on any potential watches or warnings.

&&

.CYS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WY...None.
NE...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CAH
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...RUBIN
FIRE WEATHER...CAH



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