Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY

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000
FXUS65 KCYS 182225
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
325 PM MST Sun Feb 18 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight - Monday Night)
Issued at 254 PM MST Sun Feb 18 2018

Low-level gradients are finally starting to diminish w/the passage
of a strong cold front across southeast Wyoming and the western NE
Panhandle. Wind gusts have finally decreased below 50 MPH for much
of our High Wind Warning area, but will leave the Warning in place
through 00z as some sensors are still showing sustained winds near
35-40 MPH.

A widespread, potentially significant winter storm episode remains
on track for the region from tonight through Monday night. Highest
confidence in 12+ inch snowfall amounts still exists roughly along
a RWL-DGW line which will be directly in the RRQ of a strong (120+
knot) H25 jet. Significant frontogenesis is progged here, and both
NAM and GFS forecast soundings suggest an extremely deep/saturated
dendritic growth layer for several hours at Casper. SREF plumes do
have a few members well in excess of a foot for those areas, which
makes sense with high potential for excellent snow growth. Snow is
expected to begin for northern Converse county shortly, w/ a large
part of Carbon county not far behind this evening. Snow will begin
to spread slowly southeast across the area through Monday, w/areas
from far southeast WY into the southern NE Panhandle likely seeing
impacts by late afternoon. The heaviest snow here will fall during
the evening hours, and local forecast soundings also show a period
of deep dendritic growth. It is worth noting that several 15z SREF
members show 5-10 inch amounts for CYS, and this is quite a jog in
the upward direction from previous runs. Changes to highlights are
restricted to primarily timing. Spatial extent of inherited Winter
Storm Warnings remains unchanged. We added a Winter Wx Advisory to
the remainder of Laramie County and a few zones in the southern NE
panhandle as well. It is possible that these areas could require a
Winter Storm Warning eventually once confidence increases. We will
also probably need to consider adding the rest of the I80 corridor
in the southern Panhandle for accumulations of 3-6 inches. Primary
uncertainty is for Laramie, as easterly surface flow may yield the
dreaded dry downsloping despite good overall dynamics.

One other potential concern. The models, especially the GFS, still
show a dry slot over southern Carbon county early Monday. Do think
this will limit snow chances for a time, and could even yield some
temporary sunshine over the high mountains into Arlington/Laramie.
This occurs as cold front stalls over southern Wyo, resulting in a
rapid increase in low-level gradients and 0.5 km flow of 45-55 kts
over these same areas. If there is enough sunshine, we expect low-
level mixing to become quite strong with potential for very strong
wind gusts. Hopefully, this is not juxtaposed with any snow but it
will get extremely nasty pretty quick if it does.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday - Sunday)
Issued at 302 AM MST Sun Feb 18 2018

Brutally cold Monday and Monday night as 700mb temperatures fall
to -17C over the Panhandle to -22C out by Carbon County. Snow
looks to slowly end from northwest to southeast by late morning
Tuesday. We may need to extend the end time of our warnings to
reflect the slower clearing. Windchills well below warning level
Monday night/Tuesday morning, so expect Windchill headlines after
the Winter Storm Warnings come to an end.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1039 AM MST Sun Feb 18 2018

Latest surface analysis was showing the frontal boundary draped
across the northern portions of our forecast area including KCDR
and KAIA. This frontal boundary is expected to continue sagging
south through the course of the day. At this point, it should pass
through most of the TAF sites by this evening. The exception will
be in KLAR where the front will still be hung up on the Laramie
Range. Behind this front, we should see the low clouds (MVFR
Ceilings) continue to increase with snow developing shortly
afterwards around KCDR and KRWL. We are also concerned about IFR
ceilings developing around KCYS especially if the low level flow
turns more southerly after sunrise tomorrow.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 302 AM MST Sun Feb 18 2018

Strong winds this morning will ease across southeast Wyoming by
early afternoon as an arctic front moves into the area. Widespread
wind gusts in excess of 60 mph this morning, turning north and
northeast with gusts to 20-25 mph this afternoon. Widespread snow
event to unfold from north to south over the next 36 hours behind
the front with very cold temperatures moving in behind the front
as well. Significant snow accumulations across entire area of
southeast Wyoming and Nebraska Panhandle before snow ends Tuesday
morning. No fire weather concerns expected.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...Winter Storm Warning from 6 PM this evening to midnight MST
     Monday night for WYZ109>114.

     Winter Storm Warning from 6 AM Monday to midnight MST Monday
     night for WYZ106>108-115>117.

     High Wind Warning until 5 PM MST this afternoon for WYZ104-105-
     109-110-113-115>117.

     Winter Storm Warning until midnight MST Monday night for
     WYZ101>105.

     Winter Weather Advisory from 2 PM Monday to 6 AM MST Tuesday for
     WYZ118-119.

NE...Winter Storm Warning from 6 PM this evening to midnight MST
     Monday night for NEZ002-095.

     Winter Storm Warning from 6 AM Monday to midnight MST Monday
     night for NEZ003-096.

     Winter Weather Advisory from 2 PM Monday to 6 AM MST Tuesday for
     NEZ019>021.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLH
LONG TERM...GCC
AVIATION...REC
FIRE WEATHER...GCC


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