Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY

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FXUS65 KCYS 271657
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1057 AM MDT WED APR 27 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 933 AM MDT WED APR 27 2016

CURRENT WINDS AND WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE...ALONG WITH
MODEL GUIDANCE AND DOWNWARD QG MOTION IN THE LOWER LEVELS SUGGESTS
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE
SOUTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...WHERE A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED.

RELATIVELY TRANQUIL DAY TODAY IN BETWEEN SHORTWAVES. 12Z MODELS
STILL INDICATING CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
MAINLY NORTH OF A LUSK TO ALLIANCE LINE. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMPERATURES BASED ON TRENDS FOR TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM MDT WED APR 27 2016

PRETTY QUIET MORNING COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO AS THE PRIMARY UPPER
LEVEL LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SNOW AND THUNDERSTORMS YESTERDAY
WEAKENS ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING. MAIN ENERGY IS NOW ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AS ANOTHER STORM IS DEVELOPING ACROSS KANSAS AND
NEBRASKA AT THIS HOUR. THANKFULLY...ALL MODELS SHOW THIS SYSTEM
IMPACTING THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY...WELL EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
AS SOME WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION WILL DRIFT WESTWARD IMPACTING
CHADRON...ALLIANCE AND POSSIBLY SIDNEY AND SCOTTSBLUFF TODAY
THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING. CURRENT RADAR ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA
DOES SHOW SOME RAINFALL DEVELOPING AT THIS HOUR...SO BELIEVE THIS
ACTIVITY WILL MAKE IT INTO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE OVER THE NEXT 6
HOURS OR SO. EXPECT MAINLY RAINFALL...MIXED WITH SNOW DOWN TO
4000-4500 FEET TODAY. PRECIPITATION MAY CHANGE TO ALL SNOW FOR A
FEW HOURS THIS EVENING BEFORE ENDING TONIGHT AT CHADRON AND
ALLIANCE AS SOME COLDER AIR SPREADS WESTWARD. DO NOT EXPECT THIS
ACTIVITY TO MAKE IT AS FAR WEST AS THE I25 CORRIDOR...SO KEPT POP
BELOW 20 PERCENT ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING THROUGH TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL WITH HIGHS 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL AND LOWS REMAINING IN THE 20S TO LOW 30S.

THE BREAK IN THE ACTIVE WEATHER WILL NOT LAST LONG. CURRENT WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS THE NEXT POTENT UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE JUST OFF THE COAST OF OREGON/CALIFORNIA AT THIS HOUR.
THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW A SIMILAR TRACK AS THE
PREVIOUS SYSTEM INITIALLY...WITH MODELS INDICATING A DEVELOPING
STORM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN REGION BY LATE TONIGHT. ON
THURSDAY...THIS STORM WILL FOLLOW NEARLY THE SAME TRACK ACROSS
UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO AS THE PREVIOUS STORM...WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW POSITIONED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION OR JUST NORTH
ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
ACROSS COLORADO AND SOUTHEAST WYOMING. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS
STORM FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF A MAJOR
PRECIP EVENT ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS THIS TIME AROUND...WITH
LIGHTER PRECIP WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. MODELS INDICATE THE JET
ENERGY WITH THIS STORM WILL BE FURTHER EAST COMPARED TO THE
PREVIOUS STORM...WHICH IS FAVORABLE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS IN
ADDITION TO FAVORABLE UPSLOPE FLOW WHICH APPEARS TO BE DEEPER WITH
THIS SYSTEM EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE
KEY...AND WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS
WHICH MAY STEAL SOME OF THIS MOISTURE INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OUTSIDE THE
MOUNTAINS...DOWN TO ABOUT 5500 TO 6000 FEET ACROSS SOUTHEAST
WYOMING WITH MAINLY RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS FAR EASTERN
WYOMING INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. INCREASED POP BETWEEN 50 TO 80
PERCENT STARTING LATE THURSDAY NIGHT ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COLORADO BORDER. WITH EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS AT THE SURFACE ON FRIDAY...LOWERED MAX
TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM MDT WED APR 27 2016

COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL HOLD ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE CWA WILL BE AFFECTED BY TWO UPPER LOWS.
THE INITIAL ONE WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH RAIN AND SNOW WRAPPING AROUND OVER MUCH OF THE CWA THROUGH
SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN AND DRIFT EAST SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY WHILE A SECOND UPPER LOW DROPS INTO THE DESERT SW. PCPN
SHOULD LULL SOME SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BEFORE POSSIBLY RETURNING
MONDAY. GFS MORE BULLISH WITH BRINGING PCPN NORTH ACROSS THE CWA
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WHILE THE EC HOLDS THE BULK OF IT TO THE
SOUTH. EVEN MORE DIVERGENT SOLUTIONS FOR TUESDAY AS THE GFS KEEPS
QPF OVER MUCH OF THE CWA WHILE THE EC DRIES THINGS OUT. REMAINING
COOL THROUGH THE WEEKEND THEN A SLOW WARMUP EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1055 AM MDT WED APR 27 2016

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL EASE AFTER SUNSET.
ATTENTION TURNING TO THE PANHANDLE AND AREAS EAST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE FOR TONIGHT. NORTHEAST FLOW AND A WET LOW LEVEL SHOULD BE
CONDUCIVE TO WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS THIS
EVENING...PERSISTING THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 229 AM MDT WED APR 27 2016

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND PERIODS OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN NEBRASKA.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ019>021-054-055.

&&

$$

UPDATE...RUBIN
SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...TJT


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