Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY

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000
FXUS65 KCYS 200552
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1052 PM MST WED NOV 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 854 PM MST WED NOV 19 2014

FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE THIS EVENING WITH NO ONGOING IMPACTS.
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW MID/HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS NOW CONFINED ONLY TO
SRN CARBON COUNTY. OTHERWISE...SKIES ARE VIRTUALLY CLEAR ACROSS
THE ENTIRE CWFA. THE ONLY CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO COOL
CHADRON/ALLIANCE OVERNIGHT LOWS A FEW DEGREES AND TO ADD PATCHY
FOG TO AREAS NORTH OF THE PINE RIDGE. LATEST HRRR SHOWS AND FAIRLY
WELL DEFINED AREA OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG FROM NRN NIOBRARA COUNTY
SOUTHEAST INTO NRN HARRISON AND DAWES COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW MORNING. NOT SURE THE EXTENT OF THE FOG...BUT COULDNT
IGNORE THIS SHORT RANGE SIGNAL. OTHERWISE...A QUIET NIGHT AHEAD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)

ISSUED AT 214 PM MST WED NOV 19 2014

FAIRLY TRANQUIL WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA FOR MOST OF THIS
PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES RATHER MILD THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS
COMPLIMENTS OF AN UPPER RIDGE INITIALLY TO THE WEST THAT WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE CWA WHILE WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY MODEST THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK IMPULSE WILL
CROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKYS LATE THURSDAY AND COULD BRING A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS TO THE HIGHER MTNS AT THAT TIME WITH A ZONAL FLOW SETTING
UP OVER THE REGION BEHIND IT FOR FRIDAY. BY LATE FRIDAY A LEE
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND DEEPEN OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
WHICH WILL INITIATE AN INCREASE IN WINDS AROUND THE MOUNTAINS LATE
THAT EVENING...A PRECURSOR OF MORE WIND TO COME.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 PM MST WED NOV 19 2014

STRONG WINDS ARE GOING TO BE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

STARTING OFF SATURDAY...WEAK SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS
MAINLY CONFINED TO THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES. AFTER A
FAIRLY WARM DAY SATURDAY...GFS 700MB TEMPERATURES FALL FROM 0
TO+2C SATURDAY AT NOON...DOWN TO -8 TO-10C SUNDAY MORNING. GOING
TO BE PRETTY WINDY ONCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. GFS 700MB WINDS PRETTY CLOSE TO 45-50KTS BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH 850MB WINDS 35 TO 40KTS OUT IN THE PANHANDLE. 700MB
CRAIG TO CASPER GRADIENTS PRETTY STRONG THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY...STARTING OFF AROUND 990MTRS SATURDAY MORNING...EASING
TO 60MTRS SATURDAY NIGHT. WIND HEADLINES FOR THE WIND PRONE AREAS
AT LEAST LOOKS LIKE A CERTAINTY.

LOOKS LIKE A SLIGHT REPRIEVE SUNDAY AS THE JET DIVES SOUTH INTO
SOUTHERN COLORADO AND INTO NEW MEXICO. 700MB WINDS EASE TO
20-30KTS THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. WINDY AREA LOOKS TO BE THE
PANHANDLE WHERE 850MB WINDS ARE STILL FORECAST AT 35-40KTS THROUGH
THE DAY.

A MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD AND STRONGER WIND EVENT SUNDAY
NIGHT...PERSISTING INTO PROBABLY WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK. HAVE A
SHORTWAVE TRACKING THROUGH MONTANA AND INTO EASTERN WYOMING LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AROUND THE LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
THIS DRAGS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE AND
NORTHEAST WYOMING BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. OUT WEST IN CARBON AND
ALBANY COUNTIES...700MB WINDS ARE INITIALLY 50+KTS MONDAY
MORNING. THEN EASE SOME DURING THE LATE MORNING.

BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON...UPPER SHORTWAVE PASSES TO THE SOUTHEAST
WITH THE LONGWAVE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA. LOOKING AT 60 TO
80 MTR HEIGHT RISES AT 500MB AS THE RIDGE BUILDS INTO SOUTHEAST
WYOMING. 700MB WINDS OF 50 TO 60KTS MONDAY EVENING OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST.

BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WINDS TURN MORE WESTERLY AND REALLY BEGIN
TO INCREASE. GFS WINDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON APPROACHING 70KT ACROSS
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWFA WITH 90+MTR 700MB CRAIG TO CASPER
GRADIENTS FORECAST. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...700MB WINDS INCREASE TO
80KTS OVER LARAMIE AND 700MB CRAIG TO CASPER GRADIENTS NEAR
120MTRS. SHOULD SEE WIDESPREAD HIGH WIND HEADLINES IF THIS COMES
TRUE FOR BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1042 PM MST WED NOV 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE ONLY EXCEPTION
WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF LOW STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT AT KCDR.
LATEST SHORT RANGE MODELS HINT AT LEAST THE POSSIBILITY FOR ITS
DEVELOPMENT. AM NOT ENTIRELY CONFIDENT BUT DID ADD VCFG AND A
SCT010 DECK TO THE TAF. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL VARY FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST AT MOST AREA TERMINALS THROUGH THE PERIOD
AND RELATIVELY LIGHT (LESS THAN 10 KNOTS). THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
AT KRWL AFTER 16Z THURSDAY WHERE GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 214 PM MST WED NOV 19 2014

NO CONCERNS ANTICIPATED FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH WEATHER FACTORS EXPECTED TO BE NON-CRITICAL. BY LATE SATURDAY
ONWARD INTO NEXT WEEK STRONG WINDS WILL RETURN TO AREAS ESPECIALLY
AROUND THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CAH
SHORT TERM...RE
LONG TERM...GCC
AVIATION...CAH
FIRE WEATHER...RE


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