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000
FXUS65 KCYS 222100
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
300 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS NOW MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THIS
TO CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING WITH SOME SPREAD FARTHER EASTWARD.
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS WEAK SO EXPECT ANY STORMS TO REMAIN
ISOLATED...WITH WEAKENING THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE A COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE CWA LATER TONIGHT BRINGING AN INCREASE
IN WIND WEDNESDAY. HIGH WIND STILL NOT LOOKING LIKELY BUT A FEW
STRONG GUSTS COULD OCCUR ESPECIALLY IN WIND-FAVORED AREAS. MAINLY
DRY OTHER THAN OVER THE HIGHER MTNS WHERE SOME RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL THE UPPER TROF AXIS PASSES WEDS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL DROP OFF WEDS EVENING WITH CLEARING ALLOWING FOR COOL
TEMPS WEDS NIGHT. DRY AND MILD THURSDAY UNDER A WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WITH SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS IN THE AFTERNOON DUE TO MIXING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL LIKELY BE UNSETTLED WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS. MAIN CONCERN IS IN
THE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY TIME PERIOD. GFS AND ECMWF ARE
TRENDING TOWARD A SOMEWHAT SIMILAR SOLUTION WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE FOR CORNERS AREA SATURDAY MORNING...THEN
LIFTING INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES LATE SATURDAY...AND THEN NORTHWARD
INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. IF THIS TRACK
DOES PAN OUT THERE WOULD LIKELY BE SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHEAST WYOMING ALONG WITH STRONG WINDS. A LITTLE EARLY TO
RINGING ANY ALARM BELLS BUT MOST CERTAINLY SOMETHING TO KEEP AN
EYE ON. INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH...WYOMING SEVERE WEATHER AWARENESS
WEEK COULD END AT THE BEGINNING OF A MAJOR LATE SEASON SNOW STORM.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1139 AM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE FOUND OVER
SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND NORTHEAST NEBRASKA TODAY AND INTO THIS
EVENING. ERRATIC WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND SHOWER
ACTIVITY. A STRAY THUNDERSTORM ALSO POSSIBLE TODAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST. GUSTY
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT.
GUSTS OVER 50 MPH POSSIBLE IN FAVORED WIND PRONE AREAS OF
SOUTHEAST WYOMING. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY BUT DROP
OFF BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE WIND LATER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY BEHIND A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA. OTHER FACTORS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE CRITICAL SO OVERALL CONCERNS NOT TOO GREAT.
TEMPERATURES COOLER WEDS THEN MILD THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH MORE
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 252 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

LITTLE SNAKE RIVER NEAR SAVERY PUSHES INTO ACTION STAGE THIS
MORNING BUT SINCE HAS DROPPED BELOW AS IT FOLLOWS ITS TYPICAL
DIURNAL TREND. THE GUAGE WILL LIKELY MOVE BACK INTO ACTION STAGE
TONIGHT...PUSHING WITHIN A HALF FOOT OF FLOOD STAGE. NOT TOO
CONCERNED AT THIS TIME. WORST CASE IT TOUCHES FLOOD STAGE BEFORE
FALLING BACK AGAIN. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT...SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWING THE SNOW MELT OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RE
LONG TERM...SML
AVIATION...SML
FIRE WEATHER...RE
HYDROLOGY...SML