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757
FXUS65 KCYS 231125
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
525 AM MDT Fri Jun 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 315 AM MDT Fri Jun 23 2017

Shortwave evident on GOES-R water vapor imagery is progressing
southeast across the Cowboy State during the late night hours.
Lift from this feature produced a band of light showers or
sprinkles across east-central WY and northern NE panhandle.
Scattered showers and a few weak thunderstorms continue closer to
the CO border aided by narrow band of stronger winds aloft. This
convection will gradually end from west to east with the exit of
the shortwave early this morning. Some patchy fog aided by moist
northeasterly upslope flow will develop toward morning from the
southern Laramie Range across the southeast WY plains.

Northwest flow aloft on the anticyclonic side of a upper ridge
over the southwest CONUS will promote drier and more stable
weather with cooler than normal temperatures into the weekend.
Highs today will range from the low 60s to low 70s. It will
be breezy for the northeast plains with northwest winds gusting
to 25 mph. Highs Saturday and Sunday will range from the mid 60s
to mid 70s. A few late day thunderstorms may develop Sunday over
the southern Laramie range with a bit more moisture and weak
upslope.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Thursday)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Fri Jun 23 2017

Models show the shortwave ridge axis moving into western WY by
Monday. 700 mb temps will rise to 13-15C by Monday aftn, with highs
climbing back into the upper 70s and 80s. The airmass will remain
rather stable with warming aloft and limited low level moisture,
thus kept convection out of the fcst for Monday. Flow aloft becomes
more zonal Tuesday with the surface trough located east of the
Laramie Range. Just how far this trough pushes eastward through the
aftn will determine the extent of tstms across the plains. The GFS
has the surface trough well east of the CWA with dry westerly
boundary layer flow over the region, whereas the Euro has it over
the western Nebraska Panhandle. Tuesday will be slightly warmer
than Monday, especially over the plains. By midweek, zonal flow
aloft will dominate the pattern with dry and breezy conditions
prevailing.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1145 PM MDT Thu Jun 22 2017

VFR cigs with bases 4000-7000 ft AGL will prevail at most sites
through around 15-18Z. Scattered showers with move across the
northern Panhandle for the next few hours, with minimal impacts to
aviation. Northwest winds will gust to 20-25 kts at the Nebraska
Panhandle sites from late morning through the afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 300 AM MDT Fri Jun 23 2017

Scattered showers across the plains will end by early this morning.
A cool and stable air mass will prevail across the districts today
through the weekend. Warmer temperatures are forecast next week.
Isolated late day showers and thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday
and Wednesday.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Jamski
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Finch
FIRE WEATHER...Jamski