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000
FXUS65 KCYS 102137
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
337 PM MDT MON MAR 10 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 PM MDT MON MAR 10 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES DEAL WITH SNOW AMOUNTS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ACROSS THE AREA.

CURRENTLY...NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHING INTO WESTERN IDAHO THIS
AFTERNOON. SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON
SEE LEE SIDE TROUGHING WITH GENERALLY MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVER
THE AREA. THESE CLOUDS HAVE HELD DOWN TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH MID 50S BEING REPORTED IN SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND
SOME 60S IN THE PANHANDLE. THE LEE SIDE TROUGHING THOUGH HAS
INCREASED OUR WINDS SOME WITH WINDS GUSTING INTO THE 40S ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WYOMING. ONE TROUBLE SPOT IS IN THE ARLINGTON
ZONE...ZONE 110...WHERE HALLECK RIDGE HAS BEEN GUSTING IN THE
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70MPH. BEING THIS IS THE ONLY SITE HITTING HIGH
WIND WARNING CRITERIA...WILL CONTINUE HANDLING WITH AN SPS.
GUIDANCE SHOWING WINDS EASING AFTER 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON AND WE
SHOULD SEE THESE STRONG WINDS EASING.

LATEST 12Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THE COLD FRONT MOVING INTO
OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES AROUND 12Z TUESDAY. GIVEN THE LATE START ON
THE FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA AND THE FAIRLY WARM NATURE OF THE
AIRMASS WITH THIS FRONT...AM NOT TOO CONCERNED WITH SIGNIFICANT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS
SIMILAR TO THE FRONT THAT WENT THROUGH US LAST WEEK...WHERE WE
ONLY RECEIVED AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX THROUGH
THE DAY. EVENING AND OVERNIGHT SHIFTS CAN TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT
EXPANDING THE ADVISORY...BUT FEEL PRETTY CONFIDENT THAT NOT A
WHOLE LOT OF SNOW IS GOING TO FALL AT LOWER ELEVATIONS.

FRONT CLEARS THE SOUTHERN WYOMING STATE LINE AROUND 6 PM TUESDAY
WITH PRECIP ENDING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY COLD
START FOR WEDNESDAY WITH GFS 700MB TEMPERATURES -8 TO -10C. BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THOUGH...THEY WARM BACK TO -4C...SO ANY SNOW
THAT DOES FALL SHOULD BE MELTED AS AFTERNOON HIGHS CLIMB INTO THE
40S AT MOST LOCATIONS IN SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND NEAR 50 IN THE
PANHANDLE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 PM MDT MON MAR 10 2014

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH A FEW SHORTWAVE FEATURES MOVING
OVER THE FORECAST AREA IN NORTHWEST FLOW. ON THURSDAY...THE FIRST
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. LOOKS AS THOUGH IT WILL
PRODUCE MAINLY JUST BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA AS MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE LIMITED. TEMPS WILL BE IN THE
40S AND 50S OUT WEST AND IN THE 50S AND 60S ACROSS THE PLAINS IN
THIS PATTERN. MODELS THEN DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF THE NEXT WEAK
SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. RUN TO
RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THIS FEATURE IS LACKING AS WELL...SO DID NOT
MAKE ANY RASH CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. KEPT A LOW CHANCE FOR
RAIN/SNOW MAINLY FOR SATURDAY AS THE ECMWF DOES PRODUCE A
SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER AND SLOWER SYSTEM THAN THE GFS. TEMPS WILL BE
A BIT COOLER FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AND BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS TIME. SUNDAY SHOULD SEE
WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING
SHORTWAVE...AND POSSIBLY A RETURN OF STRONG WINDS DEPENDING ON
WHICH SOLUTION VERIFIES. ALL IN ALL...LOOKS TO BE A FAIRLY BENIGN
WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WINDS POTENTIALLY THE
MAIN CONCERN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1202 PM MDT MON MAR 10 2014

WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST 25 TO 35 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AT
THE WYOMING TERMINALS...WITH 20 TO 30 KTS AT THE NEBRASKA SITES. MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT AHEAD
OF STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY
MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE
TERMINALS AFTER 12Z AND SHOULD BE CLEAR OF THE AREA BY NOON.
SNOW...MODERATE AT TIMES...WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG
WITH GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS. IFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE
COMMON AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH LIFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER SNOW TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 337 PM MDT MON MAR 10 2014

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS HELD AT BAY AS ANOTHER PACIFIC COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND THROUGH SOUTHERN WYOMING
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX CAN BE
EXPECTED FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER
HUMIDITIES WILL CONTINUE BEHIND THE FRONT FOR MOST OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM MDT
     TUESDAY FOR WYZ103-112-114.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLAYCOMB
LONG TERM...RJM
AVIATION...RJM
FIRE WEATHER...CLAYCOMB