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000
FXUS65 KCYS 090508
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1008 PM MST SAT MAR 8 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 830 PM MST SAT MAR 8 2014

FORECAST RIGHT ON TRACK SO NO UPDATES AT THIS TIME. ONLY CONCERN
TONIGHT IS THE WIND IN THE BORDEAUX AREA. NAM STILL SHOWING A
STRONG CORE OF LOW LEVEL WINDS RIGHT AROUND THE TOP OF THE
INVERSION. THE QUESTION IS IF THOSE WINDS WILL BE DIRECTED TOWARD
THE SURFACE. GRADIENT AND UPPER LEVELS NOT THE MOST FAVORABLE BUT
SUBSIDENCE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE MAY BE ENOUGH TO PUSH THE
WINDS TO THE SURFACE. ALREADY SEEING 30 MPH SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS
NEAR 40 MPH AT BORDEAUX. SHOULD AT LEAST SEE MARGINAL HIGH WIND
WARNING STRENGTH WINDS IF THE NAM VERIFIES. MAY NEED A HIGH WIND
WARNING FOR THAT AREA BEFORE THE NIGHT IS OVER. OTHER WIND PRONE
AREAS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING MUCH LESS FAVORABLE FOR HIGH WINDS
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)

ISSUED AT 245 PM MST SAT MAR 8 2014

DRY WEATHER AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH MONDAY...BEFORE THE NEXT PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM MOVES
INTO THE AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS SHOW FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER
CONTINUING OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN NEBRASKA THROUGH
MONDAY AS ZONAL FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF THE
NEXT COLD FRONT. THE ONLY MINOR CONCERN WILL BE WINDS TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING. WESTERLY WINDS MAY GUST
AROUND 55 MPH ACROSS THE WIND PRONE AREAS LATE
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN CHUGWATER AND CASPER ALONG I25 AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT NEAR THE SURFACE STRENGTHENS BRIEFLY ALONG THE
LARAMIE RANGE. STRONG WINDS ABOVE 58 MPH ARE POSSIBLE BUT WITH THE
JET STREAM FAR TO THE NORTH...NO SIGN OF LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE IN
THE LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS...AND ONLY A 6 TO 9 HOUR WINDOW OF PEAK
GUSTS...THERE IS CURRENTLY LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE A HIGH WIND EVENT
NORTH OF RAWLINS ALONG WITH AREAS ALONG I25 NORTH OF CHEYENNE. FOR
NOW...JUST INCREASED WIND GUSTS IN THE MOST LIKELY AREAS TO
OBSERVE WINDS NEAR CRITERIA. OTHERWISE...LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ON THE MILD SIDE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S EAST
OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...AND GENERALLY IN THE 50S WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOON.

BY LATE MONDAY EVENING...THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY
OFF THE WEST COAST WILL PUSH INLAND AND THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN
REGION. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM SOUTH DAKOTA
WESTWARD TO CENTRAL WYOMING...AND THEN SOUTHWARD TO EASTERN UTAH.
THIS FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
SNOW DEVELOPING ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. INCREASED
POP...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I80 AND IN THE MOUNTAINS AFTER 06Z
TUESDAY WITH MODELS ALSO TRENDING MUCH COLDER. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH
RAINFALL AT THE START OF THIS EVENT...ALTHOUGH SOME RAIN IS
EXPECT BELOW 5500 FEET. TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF MILD AND IN
THE 40S AHEAD OF THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT...BUT THEN QUICKLY LOWER
INTO THE 20S BY EARLY TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MST SAT MAR 8 2014

PRETTY WIDESPREAD SNOW EVENT SHOULD BE ONGOING TUESDAY MORNING
WITH FORECAST GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SWEEPING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. WENT AHEAD AND UPPED POPS BASED
ON THIS AGREEMENT FOR TUESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THIS LOOKS TO
BE ANOTHER FAST MOVING SYSTEM WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW FALLING
UP IN CONVERSE COUNTY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND ENDING BY LATE
AFTERNOON. THE WARMER GROUND TEMPERATURES AND FAST MOVEMENT OF THE
FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER SHORTWAVE MAY PRECLUDE A LOT IN THE WAY
OF HEAVY SNOW THOUGH. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE MONITORING THOUGH. BY
SUNSET...IT LOOKS LIKE THE PRECIP CLEARS THE CWFA WITH WEATHER
MOVING INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COLORADO.

LOOKS TO BE COLD TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS 700MB
TEMPERATURES FALL TO -12C. OVERNIGHT LOWS COULD BE SINGLE DIGITS
WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WITH LOW TO MID 20S EAST.

A QUICK WARM UP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS 700MB TEMPERATURES REBOUND
TO -2 TO -4C. LOOK FOR HIGHS OUT WEST IN THE MID 30S AND MID TO
UPPER 40S EAST.

THAT LOOKS TO BE IT FOR A WHILE PRECIP WISE. ARCTIC BOUNDARY
FORECAST TO STAY NORTHEAST OF THE CWFA INTO SUNDAY...SO LOOKS LIKE
WE SHOULD REMAIN DRY DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 948 PM MST SAT MAR 8 2014

VFR ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ONLY AVIATION CONCERNS
ARE WITH THE WINDS. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE WIND
PRONE AREAS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 WILL BE COMMON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 200 PM MST SAT MAR 8 2014

WARMER WEATHER AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER
THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT PACIFIC COLD FRONT.
ALTHOUGH FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE LOW ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA
DUE TO THE RECENT PRECIPITATION...THERE IS SOME CONCERN OF STRONG
GUSTY WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES LOWERING TO NEAR 15 PERCENT
ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SNOWFALL AND MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AND MAY LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SML
SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...CLAYCOMB
AVIATION...SML
FIRE WEATHER...TJT