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000
FXUS65 KCYS 200311
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
911 PM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 904 PM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

LATEST RADAR LOOP INDICATED THAT THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS HAD ENDED
ACROSS THE AREA. THEREFORE...PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES CAN BE
EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. TEMPERATURE TRENDS APPEAR TO BE
ON TRACK FOR LOWS TONIGHT.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

EASTERLY WINDS AND CIRRUS CLOUDS HAVE HELD TEMPERATURES DOWN OVER
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THESE COOLER BOUNDARY
LAYER/SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL LIMIT THE CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LESS CLOUD
COVER IN THE WEST...MAINLY IN CARBON COUNTY WILL ALLOW FOR AT
LEAST A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES. NOT LOOKING FOR ANY SEVERE STORMS
TODAY BUT GRAUPLE/SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE WITH A FEW
OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.

UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER COLORADO WILL DEPART INTO THE
PLAINS TONIGHT. FLOW WILL SLOWLY TURN TO THE WEST TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW MORNING BEHIND THE WAVE. WEAK UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE
WILL SET IN SUNDAY BUT STILL THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WEST. COOL AIR ALOFT AND STEEP LAPSE
RATES SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME CONVECTION BUT AGAIN NO SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT. MONDAY SHOULD BE DRY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS
THE AREA. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE NEAR THE MOUNTAINS BUT THAT IS
ABOUT IT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE CWA TUESDAY WHILE NEXT
UPPER TROF APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE WEST COASTAL AREAS. A BIT
OF CONVECTION POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY SHOULD EXIST TO INTERACT WITH A MINOR IMPULSE IN THE
UPPER FLOW. TURNING COOLER WEDS AND THURSDAY AS THE UPPER TROF
PASSES ACROSS THE REGION. SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD ACCOMPANY THIS
SYSTEM BUT BE CONFINED MAINLY TO THE MTNS AND NORTHERN PARTS OF
THE CWA WHILE BREEZY TO WINDY DOWNSLOPE FLOW HINDERS ACTIVITY
ELSEWHERE. MAINLY DRY AND A LITTLE WARMER FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
IN PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 555 PM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

LATEST RADAR LOOP WAS SHOWING A FEW SHOWERS CONTINUING TO FLARE UP
ACROSS THE LARAMIE RANGE. THESE SHOWERS MAY CONTAIN A FEW WIND
GUSTS UP TO 30 TO 40 MPH. OTHERWISE...THE SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD
BEGIN TO DIE OFF AFTER SUNSET. LIGHT WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING BEFORE ANOTHER WEAK BOUNDARY
PASSES THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE THE RULE.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH MONDAY. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
GENERALLY DROP TO AS LOW AS 20 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
WHILE RECOVERIES WILL BE INTO THE 70 TO 90 PERCENT RANGE. BREEZY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE WINDS WILL MAINLY BE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE. STRONGER WINDS LIKELY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...REC
SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...REC
FIRE WEATHER...SML