Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY

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FXUS65 KCYS 291758
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
1158 AM MDT MON AUG 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Mon Aug 29 2016

Today...Another day with some isolated hit and miss thunderstorms.
Models keep the bulk of the showers and thunderstorms to our south
over Colorado. However, believe most of our isolated thunderstorms
will be terrain induced and near the mountains and higher terrain as
depicted in inherited grids.

Tonight...After some evening thunderstorms near the mountains,
clearing skies expected.

Tuesday...Ridging aloft continues. Looks like the bulk of the low
and mid level moisture will be confined to the south of our
counties, thus minimal thunderstorm chances again. Have compromised
between NAM and GFS MOS highs for maximum temperatures.

Tuesday night...Another mostly clear and cool overnight with limited
cloud cover.

Wednesday...Ridging aloft becomes even more pronounced. Limited low
and mid level moisture and minimal lift suggests quite limited
thunderstorm chances again. Compromised again between the often
cooler NAM versus warmer GFS MOS high temperatures.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Mon Aug 29 2016

Upper level ridge over the CWFA into Thursday before shifting off
to the east. Stay under weak east to southeast wind flow with
showers and storms remaining south of our CWFA through Thursday.

Winds still look to increase Friday as low pressure tracks through
Montana. GFS a bit weaker on 700mb winds than what it was showing
yesterday, but still a concern for fire weather as widespread
25-30kts could mix down to the surface.

These strong winds stay with us through the weekend with fire
concerns continuing through Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1158 AM MDT Mon Aug 29 2016

East-northeast winds will prevail through this evening, with
occasional gusts around 20 kts. Light winds expected tonight. VFR
will continue outside of shower/t-storm activity, which is most
likely near KSNY between 23-02Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 131 AM MDT Mon Aug 29 2016

Humidities and winds will remain within thresholds the next few
days. Will need to watch conditions later in the week as
humidities fall again with increasing winds.

&&

.CYS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WY...None.
NE...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUBIN
LONG TERM...GCC
AVIATION...RJM
FIRE WEATHER...RUBIN



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