Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY

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FXUS65 KCYS 261721 AAA
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
1121 AM MDT THU MAY 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 343 AM MDT Thu May 26 2016

Active weather will continue through the short term period with
afternoon showers and thunderstorms on a daily basis. The
overnight hours will generally be the quiet period but some
nocturnal convection is not out of the question. Actually, showers
and thunderstorms may continue across the western Nebraska
Panhandle into late tonight as a shortwave ejects out of the
southern Rockies and into the central plains.

Will have to keep an eye on the potential for severe
thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Based on the overall
weather pattern and the latest numerical models the severe
thunderstorm threat looks minimal. Shear profiles are not
impressive and the best upper level forcing will be south and east
of the forecast area. Low level lapse rates will be steep and
cape values may push 2000 j/kg which is supportive of some
stronger updrafts but given the shear profiles, updrafts may have
a tough time being sustained. Therefore expecting pulse type
thunderstorms with a marginal severe threat.

As the shortwave moves into the plains tonight chances for
thunderstorms will end from west to east across the forecast area,
but more development is likely Friday afternoon. The main
thunderstorm potential Friday should be over the higher terrain of
southeast Wyoming. not expecting severe thunderstorms Friday but
some small hail and gusty winds will occur with a few storms.
Thunderstorm coverage should increase and spread back into the
plains for Saturday afternoon. Mainly looking at garden variety
thunderstorms with any severe thunderstorm potential very low.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 343 AM MDT Thu May 26 2016

Ensemble models still project a fairly active period for scattered
afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms across the area
through the weekend into the middle part of next week as a rather
broad upper level trough slowly works its way east across the
forecast area. We kept the trend of scattered PoPs going through
the period...with the guidance gradually diminishing PoPs across
the area late Wednesday as the trough moves east into the central
Plains. We will see a bit of a warmup early in the week on the
eastern plains however out west in the higher terrain overnight
lows above 9000 ft elevation still are fairly cool with lows
around 30 degrees and daytime highs in the 40s to around 50...so
enough to keep a gradual snow melt going in the mountains but
nothing major.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday morning)
Issued at 1120 AM MDT Thu May 26 2016

VFR expected overall for all terminals this afternoon and evening
outside of sctd showers and storms where brief periods of mvfr vsbys
possible.  Some hint of low clouds/mvfr cigs/ over far se Wy and the
Neb panhandle late tonight into Friday morning.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 343 AM MDT Thu May 26 2016

No fire weather concerns through early next week. The current
weather pattern will remain in place with scattered showers and
thunderstorms expected nearly every day.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 343 AM MDT Thu May 26 2016

Will continue to keep an eye on the snow melt across Snowy and
Sierra Madre ranges in the weeks ahead but based on current forecast
temperatures this seasons snow melt is looking very steady. High
temperatures around 10000 feet will be in the 40s to lower 50s
through mid next week with lows mainly in the 20s to lower 30s which
should keep the slow and steady snow melt continuing. The snow melt
wild care is any heavy rain from thunderstorm activity but the
chances of that looks relatively low based on the forecast weather
pattern.

&&

.CYS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WY...None.
NE...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...JG
AVIATION...RE
FIRE WEATHER...SML
HYDROLOGY...SML



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