Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY

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000
FXUS65 KCYS 290316
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
916 PM MDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 845 PM MDT TUE OCT 28 2014

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AS A TRANSIENT
SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. LIKE LAST NIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY DIP INTO THE 20`S OUTSIDE OF THE
MOUNTAINS...WHICH IS RIGHT IN LINE WITH NORMALS THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 PM MDT TUE OCT 28 2014

AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR LOOP DEPICTED A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE AMPLIFIED
MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE LOWER 48. A POTENT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WAS MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WITH A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. A UPPER RIDGE DOMINATED MUCH OF THE
WESTERN CONUS...WITH THE NEXT PACIFIC COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE
NORTHWEST COAST. A BROAD EAST-WEST SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATED THE
ROCKIES AND CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS. SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS COVERED
CENTRAL AND EASTERN WYOMING. IT WAS A TAD WARMER WITH WEST TO
NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S. IT WAS BREEZY WITH WESTERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 25 TO 35 MPH.

LATEST NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE WEAKENS THE UPPER RIDGE AS IT
TRAVERSES THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
SHORTWAVE ACROSS MONTANA AND THE DAKOTAS. THIS WAVE WILL TIGHTEN
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RESULTING IN WINDY CONDITIONS FOR SOUTHEAST
WYOMING WEDNESDAY. GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE
NORMAL WIND PRONE AREAS LIKE ARLINGTON...BORDEAUX AND VEDAUWOO. A
DEEPENING LEE-SIDE TROUGH AND INCREASING DOWNSLOPE FLOW EAST OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE WILL RESULT IN MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN
GREAT PLAINS AND MIDWEST. THURSDAY WILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER
WITH A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF AN APPROACHING UPPER
RIDGE. TONIGHT WILL NOT BE AS COLD WITH LOWS FROM THE MID 20S TO
MID 30S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO
UPPER 30S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT TUE OCT 28 2014

TEMPS WILL BE COOLER OVER THE PLAINS EAST OF THE MTNS FRIDAY AS THAT
AREA WILL BE ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LARGE COOL AIR MASS THAT
WILL SETTLE SOUTH OVER THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. SFC FRONT ALONG THE MTNS WILL WASH BACK EAST FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SAT AS LEE TROFFING DEEPENS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS IN RESPONSE
TO AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. ONE BATCH
OF ENERGY FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BREAK OFF AND LIFT NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKS SAT NIGHT PUSHING A PACIFIC COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE CWA AS WELL AS BRINGING SOME SHOWERS TO MAINLY THE
HIGHER MTNS WHILE A SECOND AREA OF ENERGY DROPS MORE SOUTHEAST
INTO COLORADO SUNDAY NIGHT KEEPING CHANCES FOR PCPN GOING OVER
MAINLY WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA. MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOKING MAINLY
DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL UNDER A GENERALLY NW FLOW ALOFT WITH SOME
SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER MTNS WHERE OROGRAPHICS WILL
AID.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 845 PM MDT TUE OCT 28 2014

LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS TOMORROW WITH A
SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TONIGHT ACROSS A VAST MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH BREEZY WEST WINDS IN THE TYPICAL WIND PRONE AREAS SUCH
AS THE NORTH SNOWY RANGE FOOTHILLS. GUSTY WINDS FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH STRONG WEST WINDS OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
SOUTHEAST WYOMING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT TUE OCT 28 2014

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL PROMOTE DRY
CONDIITONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A LEE-SIDE TROUGH WILL STREGTHEN
OVER THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS AND MILDER TEMPERATURES.
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM 20 TO 25 PERCENT...AND 25 TO 30
PERCENT THURSDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH THE NEXT PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE TROUGH AND COLD
FRONT.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SML
SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...RAE
AVIATION...SML
FIRE WEATHER...MJ



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