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000
FXUS65 KCYS 101110
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
410 AM MST TUE DEC 10 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 AM MST TUE DEC 10 2013

STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE REGION. IN
THE LLVLS...GRADIENTS ARE STILL REALLY HIGH WITH THE 700MB CAG-CPR
GRADIENT AROUND 70 METERS. WINDS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY SUSTAINED
AT 40-45 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH IN THE WIND PRONE AREAS OF
SOUTHEAST WYOMING THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. THE CHEYENNE AIRPORT GOT
CLOSE TO HIGH WIND CRITERIA WITH MULTIPLE GUSTS TO 49 KTS.  WITH
THE 700MB CAG-CPR GRADIENT NOT CHANGING THROUGH 18Z AND WINDS
1000-3000 FT OFF THE SURFACE AT 50-60 KTS...NOT EXPECTING MUCH
DECREASE IN THE WINDS THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. KEPT AREAS OF
BLOWING SNOW IN THE FCST FOR THE WIND PRONE AREAS THROUGH THE
MORNING...THEN EXPECT IT TO BECOME MORE PATCHY AS TEMPS WARM TO
AROUND FREEZING OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY.

SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL PASS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
CWA THIS AFTN. PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AT 18Z
WILL MAINTAIN THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENTS. STILL THINKING THAT
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO REALLY DIE DOWN BY SUNSET AS A WEAK FROPA AND
PRESSURE RISES PUSH ACROSS THE PLAINS. WEAK LLVL LIFT BEHIND THE
FROPA WILL CAUSE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF CONVERSE AND NIOBRARA COUNTIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE
DURING THE EVENING. ALSO HAVE CHANCE POPS IN THE SIERRA MADRE AND
SNOWY RANGES DUE TO MOIST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. THE COMBINATION OF
WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION AND WEAKER WINDS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER
CHILLY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. WINDS WILL BE QUITE A
BIT WEAKER ON WEDNESDAY ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE DAY. THE LEE
TROUGH BEGINS TO DEVELOP BY THE AFTN HOWEVER...SO WINDS WILL BEGIN
TO INCREASE AGAIN. NOT EXPECTING GUSTS ABOVE 45 MPH AT THIS POINT
ON WED AFTN AND EVENING AS THE 700MB CAG-CPR GRADIENT IS BELOW 50
METERS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM MST TUE DEC 10 2013

A MORE TYPICAL WEATHER PATTERN FOR SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE TAKING SHAPE IN THE LONG TERM. WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY
STORY.

THURSDAY WILL BE WINDY...ESPECIALLY OUR WIND PRONE AREAS...AS
700MB WINDS ARE RIGHT AROUND 50KTS ACROSS ALBANY COUNTY. GFS 700MB
CRAIG TO CASPER HEIGHT GRADIENT RIGHT AROUND 60MTRS. HAVE ANOTHER
SURFACE LOW TRACKING ACROSS MONTANA WITH A SURFACE HIGH OVER
NORTHWESTERN COLORADO...SO WINDS WILL BE UP FOR CERTAIN. LOOKS
WARM AS WELL WITH 700MB TEMPERATURES AROUND +2C. SO SHOULD SEE
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA AND
30S WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. STILL UNDER CUTTING MOS
TEMPERATURES AS WE STILL HAVE THE SNOW PACK TO CONTEND WITH. WINDS
AND WARMER TEMPERATURES THURSDAY SHOULD DO A PRETTY GOOD NUMBER ON
THE SNOW...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH STILL FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY
WITH 700MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING BACK TO -6 TO -8C. THIS DOES NOT
HAPPEN THOUGH UNTIL THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...SO WE STILL
SHOULD SEE FAIRLY WARM TEMPERATURES FOR HIGHS ON FRIDAY.

WINDS PICK UP AGAIN SATURDAY AS LEE SIDE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE
PANHANDLE. GFS 700MB WINDS BEGIN INCREASING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. BY 00Z THEY ARE UP TO 45KTS AND THEN BY SUNDAY
MORNING...50KTS ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN WYOMING. SO WOULD EXPECT WIND
PRONE AREAS TO BE BLOWING PRETTY GOOD.

BEST CHANCES FOR STRONG WINDS LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING AS 700MB WINDS INCREASE TO 60KTS. 700MB CRAIG TO CASPER
HEIGHT GRADIENT PRETTY STRONG AT 70MTRS. THIS COULD BE A FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD WIND EVENT. WILL NEED TO WATCH AS THE EVENT DRAWS CLOSER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 406 AM MST TUE DEC 10 2013

STRONG WINDS TO CONTINUE TO IMPACT SOUTHEAST WYOMING AIRPORTS
TODAY. LOOK FOR WINDS TO REALLY RAMP UP AFTER SUNRISE AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WILL SEE VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN BLOWING
SNOW...THOUGH SHOULD BE LESS THAN WHAT WAS OBSERVED YESTERDAY.
SNOW PACK REALLY GOT COMPRESSED WITH THE STRONG WINDS YESTERDAY
AND IS NOW HARDER TO GET LOFTED INTO THE AIR. FAVORED AIRPORTS FOR
BLOWING SNOW LOOKS TO BE CHEYENNE AND LARAMIE. WINDS EASE AFTER
SUNSET WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 320 AM MST TUE DEC 10 2013

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM THROUGH THURSDAY BACK TO AVERAGE VALUES. MINIMUM
AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE 40 PERCENT. VERY
STRONG WINDS GUSTING TO 60 MPH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS THE WIND PRONE AREAS OF SOUTHEAST
WYOMING. WINDS WILL DECREASE ON WEDNESDAY BUT IT WILL STILL BE
BREEZY-TO-WINDY IN SOUTHEAST WYOMING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR WYZ106-110-
     116>118.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...CLAYCOMB
AVIATION...CLAYCOMB
FIRE WEATHER...FINCH