Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY

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FXUS65 KCYS 302319
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
459 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 455 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

MAY A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST SPREADING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SLIGHTLY FARTHER EAST INTO THIS EVENING.
ALSO REMOVED THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)

ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME OF
THIS ACTIVITY MAY REACH THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. 40 TO 50 SPREADS
BETWEEN TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WILL MAKE IT TOUGH FOR MOISTURE
TO REACH THE GROUND SUCH THAT MEASURABLE RAIN WILL BE MINIMAL
WHERE IT DOES REACH THE SURFACE. THE LARGE SPREADS BETWEEN
TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINTS WILL PRODUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR
RELATIVELY STRONG DOWN DRAFTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS OF
50 TO 60 MPH...IF NOT GREATER. COW CREEK RAWS ALREADY MEASURED A
GUST OF 54 MPH AT 243 PM. COOLING ALOFT...THE REAR ENTRANCE OF AN
UPPER LEVEL JET...AND MOIST MID FLOW MAY KEEP SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY LINGERING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BUT STRONG WIND GUST
POTENTIAL WILL SUBSIDE.

MONDAY WILL SEE A BREAK IN THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS
TYPICALLY IN THE 80S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. MID LEVEL MOISTURE
IS PROGGED TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA WHICH SHOULD YIELD A FEW MORE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. AGAIN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT A CONCERN
BUT A FEW STRONGER WIND GUSTS MAY BE POSSIBLE.

WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN TUESDAY AS THE RIDGE REBOUNDS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. HIGH TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 90S
ACROSS THE PLAINS AND 80S FARTHER WEST. LESSER CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION TUESDAY BUT MAY SEE A COUPLE SHOWERS DEVELOP OFF THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THROUGHOUT THE
MAJORITY OF THE WEEK. A DRY AIRMASS ALOFT ON WEDNESDAY COULD
BRING CONCERNS FOR FIRE WEATHER WITH RH VALUES DOWN INTO THE MID
TO LOWER TEENS FOR CONVERSE AND NIOBRARA COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN WARM OVER THE COURSE OF THE WEEK WITH POPS BEING LOW.
A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEEN OVER THE SIERRA MADRES
AND SNOWY RANGES ON WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THIS HOT/DRY TREND. THIS PATTERN WILL CHANGE OVER THE
WEEKEND WHEN A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD
FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON SATURDAY
WILL BRING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
AFFECTING EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.
THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON SUNDAY WILL BRING
TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS A CONTINUED CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR
THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 459 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

VFR EXPECTED OVER ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MID LEVEL
CLOUDS SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS TONIGHT
WITH BRIEF GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE AROUND THEM.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 157 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

MAINLY DRY AND WARM THROUGH THIS WEEK ALTHOUGH THERE WILL
BE SOME CHANCES FOR WETTING RAINS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA
INTO THIS EVENING. WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 55 MPH WILL OCCUR
WITH SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THIS EVENING.

COOLER TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL SUPPRESS CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER POTENTIAL BUT LATER INTO THE WEEK TEMPERATURES WILL
BE UNSEASONABLY WARM WITH HUMIDITIES DROPPING INTO THE 10
TO 15 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING. WINDS WILL
BE GUSTY SEVERAL AFTERNOONS DURING THE WEEK SUCH THAT
CRITICAL FIRE THRESHOLDS MAY BE REACHED.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.

NE...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SML
SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...GCC
AVIATION...RE
FIRE WEATHER...SML


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