Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY

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FXUS65 KCYS 241121

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
521 AM MDT Sat Jun 24 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 307 AM MDT Sat Jun 24 2017

Relatively quiet weather pattern will remain in place for the
next three days. Upper ridging continues to be anchored over the
desert SW while a trough sits over the upper midwest and Great
Lakes region. This places our CWA in northwest flow aloft. At the
surface, cool high pressure is in place east of the Rockies with
generally light NE to E boundary layer flow. Atmosphere will
remain capped today east of the Laramie Range under partly to
mostly cloudy skies. Temperatures will be cool with highs ranging
from the upper 60s to mid 70s outside of the mountains. A little
more moisture and instability may try to make it up into southern
sections of the area on Sunday and so may see isolated afternoon
convection over the mountains and in the lee of the Laramie Range
in easterly upslope flow. Upper ridging shifts further north and
east on Monday and even though moisture will continue to increase
east of the Laramie Range, the presence of warm and dry air aloft
will likely preclude much in the way of convective development.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Friday)
Issued at 307 AM MDT Sat Jun 24 2017

By Tuesday the models project a series of shortwaves will start to
weaken the northern periphery of the upper ridge west of the
Rockies, bringing a modifying cold front southeastward into our
area by Wednesday. Isolated to scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms can be expected across the area next week as the
frontal boundary goes quasi-stationary just to our south. Moisture
looks somewhat limited Tuesday into Wednesday so we didn`t go
crazy with the PoPs this far out due to limited coverages, however
coverages may go up Thursday into Friday as moisture increases a
bit. At this time severe threat appears low for next week given
warmer midlevel temperatures and stronger mid to upper wind flow
is to our northeast.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 521 AM MDT Sat Jun 24 2017

Lower cloud deck developed again overnight from Laramie east to
Kimball in region of shallow vertical ascent. Expect MVFR ceilings
to continue for Cheyenne and Laramie through late morning before
lifting to VFR category. Elsehwere seeing higher mid-deck of
clouds at Scottsbluff and Sidney that should continue into the
afternoon hours. Otherwise light to moderate north to northeasterly
winds will continue into the afternoon with VFR category and no
precipitation expected this afternoon into the overnight period.


Issued at 307 AM MDT Sat Jun 24 2017

Dry weather will continue through early next week. Afternoon RH
values will fall into the 10 to 15 percent range each afternoon
through Monday west of the Laramie Range. Winds will remain
generally below 20 kt and fuels for now remain green so not
expecting much in the way of fire weather concerns at this time.




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