Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY

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FXUS65 KCYS 262020

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
220 PM MDT Mon Jun 26 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 215 PM MDT Mon Jun 26 2017

Today is turning out to be the quiet day as expected with a ridge
moves overhead. May see a few clouds move overhead from the
northwest, but that`s about it. Southerly boundary layer flow
tonight is expected to improve llvl moisture, with stratus quiet
possible across the plains. Models look consistent for Tuesday`s t-
storm potential with modest instability and shear in place. An
approaching upper level shortwave and Pacific front will initiate
convection the afternoon perhaps over the mountains and along the
front, with convection quickly shifting east through the afternoon
and evening. Time of the front is still such that our far eastern
counties in the Panhandle could see a strong/severe storm or two. In
the wake of the front, very warm, dry and windy conditions are
anticipated which could enhance fire weather concerns. Fuels are
still not conducive to explosive fire growth, so overall concerns
will be marginal. Another shortwave will approach from the west on
Wednesday, bringing another chance for afternoon showers and
thunderstorms to the forecast area. Temps will be slightly cooler in
the post frontal environment.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 215 PM MDT Mon Jun 26 2017

Models are in good agreement at showing a shortwave pushing across
the region on Thursday, with a cold front and cooler temps in store.
 Highs will be back down into the 70s and low 80s behind the front.
Convective activity looks rather limited on Thursday/Friday with a
rather stable airmass in place.  Flow aloft becomes a bit more zonal
by the weekend.  The GFS does show llvl moisture advection from the
southeast on Saturday, with higher instability and tstm chances
compared to the drier Euro.  Will keep PoPs below 20 percent for
now.  The warmest day of the extended will likely be Sunday, with
temps becoming slightly above normal. Other than a brief time
behind the front on Thursday, winds look relatively weak overall
through the extended period.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 215 PM MDT Mon Jun 26 2017

Vfr conditions through the taf period. South to southeast winds
will increase across the Nebraska Panhandle after 06Z as a low
level jet develops. Gusts to 20-30 kts will be common.


Issued at 215 PM MDT Mon Jun 26 2017

Tuesday will be warm and breezy across much of southeast Wyoming.  Minimum
afternoon humidity values will drop to around 15 percent and west winds
will gust to 25 to 40 mph over southeast Wyoming.  Despite the breezy and
very dry conditions, no fire weather highlights have been issued as fuels
are still green and not supportive of rapid fire spread.




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