Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY

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548
FXUS65 KCYS 160506
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
1106 PM MDT Tue Aug 15 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 737 PM MDT Tue Aug 15 2017

Upon coordination with the Storm Prediction Center, we have
cancelled the Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of the
Nebraska Panhandle. Strongest storms have moved east of the
panhandle, with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
anticipated the rest of this evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 250 PM MDT Tue Aug 15 2017

Shortwave trough currently across southeast Utah is fcsted to swing
northeastward through the evening.  Large scale ascent and
associated cooling/destabilization aloft is causing scattered to
numerous showers and storms to develop across southeast WY.  With
good bulk shear (30-40 kts) and CAPE of 500-1000 J/kg, a few of the
storms could be stronger with small hail across southeast WY.  Still
think that the best chance of more severe storms will be over the
southern Nebraska Panhandle in areas along I-80.  This is where
instability is greatest (SBCAPE of 2000-2500 J/kg) and any discrete
storm would have the potential of producing large hail.  The HRRR
has been consistent at showing widespread rain with embedded tstms
across areas much of the plains through the evening so have PoPs of
50-60 through 06Z.  The strong/severe storm threat will mostly
diminish by mid evening as the activity becomes more less discrete
and more multicell.

Precip chances will diminish after 06Z as the best large scale
ascent ahead of the shortwave moves eastward into central Nebraska.
Overnight fropa will usher in cooler temps for Wednesday with highs
dropping into the 70s over lower elevations.  The cool and stable
post frontal airmass will keep storm chances minimal over much of
the CWA.  Warming will occur on Thursday with dry westerly boundary
layer flow across southeast WY.  An isolated storm may develop in
the better instability to the east of the sfc trough across the
Panhandle.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 250 PM MDT Tue Aug 15 2017

Drier conditions are anticipated this weekend as the upper level
flow turns to the northwest behind a departing shortwave across
the northern Plains. This will allow for a nice warmup with
afternoon highs starting to climb into the 80s both Saturday and
Sunday. The upper level flow is progged to turn more to the
southwest early next week which will help draw some more moisture
into the area. This will make things tricky on precipitation and
cloud cover chances especially on Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1103 PM MDT Tue Aug 15 2017

Concerns for IFR conditions at KSNY and KAIA overnight. Though
wind direction not favorable for stratus development, the latest
HRRR is showing IFR conditions at both airports, lasting til 12Z.
Put TEMPO conditions at both KSNY and KAIA for IFR conditions.
Pretty wet out there from recent rains, so stratus could develop.
VFR elsewhere.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 250 PM MDT Tue Aug 15 2017

Minimal fire weather concerns through Friday. We expect good chances
for showers and thunderstorms through this evening. Some of the
storms will produce brief heavy rain and wetting rains.  A warming
and drying trend will occur Thursday into this weekend.  Afternoon
humidities could drop down to 15-20 percent across portions of
southeast Wyoming by this weekend.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RUBIN
SHORT TERM...ZF
LONG TERM...REC
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...ZF



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