Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY

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FXUS65 KCYS 241755
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1155 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

DENSE CIRRUS OVERHEAD THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWFA. THIS
DENSER CIRRUS HAS HELPED KEEP EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES FAIRLY
WARM...WITH 2AM READINGS IN THE 50S ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND
MID 40S OUT IN THE PANHANDLE. RADAR MOSAIC PPINE FOR THE MOST
PART. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING A VERY SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT...NEARLY STATIONARY EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL MONTANA TO
SOUTHEAST IDAHO INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING.

LOOKS LIKE THE CIRRUS SHOULD STAY WITH US THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS...WITH THE GFS NSHARP SOUNDINGS SHOWING A THINNING OUT THIS
AFTERNOON. COULD HOLD OUR TEMPERATURES DOWN SOME TODAY...BUT WE
SHOULD STILL SEE A WARM DAY WITH UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S EAST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE AND LOW 70S WEST.

WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS 700MB
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE +8 TO +10C RANGE. FRONT TO OUR WEST
VERY SLOW TO MOVE EAST...SO DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WE COULD START
SEEING SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING OUT WEST IN CARBON COUNTY. DID CUT
BACK ON POPS OUT THERE AS GUIDANCE SLIGHTLY SLOWER ON PRECIP
ONSET.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 148 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

SUNDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE
ACROSS OUR COUNTIES FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH OROGRAPHIC SHOWERS OVER
THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES AND SOME DYNAMIC SHOWERS OVER OUR
FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES.

MONDAY...IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT PASSAGE...MOIST
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY THE FAVORED NORTHERN LARAMIE RANGE.

TUESDAY...SLOW WARMING TREND ON TAP AS THE AIRMASS BEGINS TO
MODERATE AND SURFACE LEE TROUGHING BECOMES WEAKLY ESTABLISHED DUE TO
WEST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

WEDNESDAY...CONTINUED WARMING TREND AS HEIGHTS ALOFT AND THICKNESSES
RISE. STILL LOOKS RELATIVELY DRY DUE TO LIMITED LOW AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE IN STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

THURSDAY...RIDGE AXIS ALOFT MOVES OFF TO OUR EAST WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING OVER OUR COUNTIES. MINIMAL LOW AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE...THUS STAYING DRY.

FRIDAY...HALLOWEEN DAY LOOKS DRY AND RELATIVELY MILD WITH STRONG
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...DECENT SURFACE LEE TROUGHING...AND LIMITED
LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1140 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS THE HOW STRONG
WINDS WILL BE AT RWL THIS AFTERNOON.

LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY WAS SHOWING MOST OF THE CLOUDS EAST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE. THIS HAS LIMITED THE MIXING POTENTIAL AT CYS THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THINGS HAVE BEEN MIXING FAIRLY WELL OUT
TOWARDS RWL WHERE WIND SPEEDS ARE GUSTING BETWEEN 20 AND 25KTS.
THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE AREA THROUGH THE
NEXT 24HRS WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR WIND SPEEDS TO LIGHTEN OVERNIGHT
AS THE INVERSION SETS IN.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 148 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

WARM...DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.
AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY COULD BE CLOSE TO
CRITICAL...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE IN FWZS 301...309 AND 310. FORTUNATELY THOUGH...WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS FOR THESE AREAS DURING THIS TIME. BY
SUNDAY...WE DO SEE A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA THAT WILL
BRING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER HUMIDITIES TO THE AREA
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLAYCOMB
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...WFOCYS
FIRE WEATHER...CLAYCOMB



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