Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY

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FXUS65 KCYS 272043
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
243 PM MDT SAT AUG 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 243 PM MDT Sat Aug 27 2016

A drier and more subsident pattern will remain overhead the next
couple of days. For today, humidities are slowly falling early
this afternoon with many obs out west showing RH values in the
upper teens to low 20s. Wind gusts are generally in the 20-30 mph
range along and west of the Laramie Range, with a few spots
including KRWL a few mph higher. Still thinking we`ll see Red Flag
conditions over the next few hours as humidities continue to fall
and winds remain gusty. Will have to keep an eye on lower
elevations of FWZ 309 as conditions here could be close to
critical. Otherwise, invigorated cu have developed over the high
mountains as well as sw-ne across Laramie County. These are the
areas to watch for showers and t- storms later this afternoon.
Status quo for Sunday, except winds through the mixed layer should
be weaker with mid and upper level RH higher. This should help
keep fire weather concerns minimal while improving chances for
showers and perhaps a weak t-storm or two near the Colorado border
in south-southeasterly upslope flow. A stronger wave moving into
Colorado on Sunday and Monday will turn winds to the east-
northeast across the forecast area through nearly 500 mb, so a
better fetch of moisture and deeper upslope flow should bring a
broader coverage of convection over the mountains and perhaps near
the Colorado border as well. Models vary some on location and
intensity of vort max tho, so some uncertainty exists whether
upper level dynamics will aide or suppress convection. Kept low
PoPs for now which seems to be the better consensus at this time.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 243 PM MDT Sat Aug 27 2016

An upper ridge will be over the CWA Tuesday boding for warm and
dry weather. The ridge will slip slowly eastward Weds and
Thursday. As it does so moisture should increase across the region
allowing for some increase in convection for the latter part of
the week. Best chance would appear to be late Thursday as an
upper trof swings across the northern Rockies into the northern
plains and pushes a weak front across the CWA. Drier weather
returns Friday and Saturday under westerly flow aloft with better
moisture suppressed to the south. Temperatures holding a little
above seasonal norms through the period.

&&s

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 1108 AM MDT Sat Aug 27 2016

VFR expected to prevail across all terminals through Sunday
morning. There is some possibility for patchy fog once again
later tonight into Sunday morning around the North Platte River
Valley.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 240 PM MDT Sat Aug 27 2016

Humidities are steadily falling this afternoon with many obs out
west showing RH values in the upper teens to low 20s. Wind gusts
are generally in the 20-30 mph range along and west of the
Laramie Range, with a few spots near the mountains a few mph
higher. Still thinking Red Flag conditions will prevail through
the afternoon for many locations along and west of the Laramie
Range, in addition to western Converse County, as humidities
continue to fall and winds remain gusty. Will have to keep an eye
on lower elevations of FWZ 309 as conditions here could be close
to critical. Conditions will improve by mid-evening. Although
temperatures are expected to be warmer and humidities less on
Sunday, winds look less as well. Winds turn east for Monday which
will suppress fire weather concerns.

&&

.CYS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WY...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for
WYZ301>304-306-308.

NE...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJM
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...RE
FIRE WEATHER...RJM


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