Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 261141

641 AM CDT Tue May 26 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 258 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

Precipitation persists over much of the area, though becoming
steadily more scattered in nature and generally rather low rates.
Appears more vigorous convection in western locations is long
upper trough axis, with whole upper system good northeast progress
through eastern Kansas with warming cloud tops.

Have a hard time ruling out precip for much of today and tonight.
Short-range models seem a bit too fast with main deformation
precip`s exit this morning, with latest HRRR runs similar in
isolated to scattered convection making its way southeast around
the low into northern areas in the late morning to early
afternoon. Still seeing best lower-level forcing in southern areas
late today into tonight were somewhat better convergence exists.
There is also decent larger-scale model similarity in another wave
rotating (perhaps taking shape in western Nebraska early this
morning) passing through over this same period, although heights
are still rising. Moisture through the column not up to recent
levels, but dewpoints into the lower 60s still support some
instability developing in peak heating. Fairly unidirectional and
modest wind speeds keep severe storm concerns low.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 258 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

Surface high pressure moves into the Central Plains on Wednesday,
with the frontal boundary slowing over southern Kansas under
generally west southwest upper flow. Think more stable surface air
plus mid level ridging will keep northern areas dry on Wednesday
but could see some rumbles south depending on how far south the
front progresses. Next in a series of shortwave trofs moves over
eastern Kansas overnight into Thursday morning, and draws rain
chances back over our area. Have continued chances into Thursday,
although features driving rain chances are more mesoscale in
nature and timing will likely need adjustment.

Better model agreement on a slightly larger scale shortwave
feature lifting out of the southwest US and across eastern Kansas
for Friday, and will keep higher rain chances as a result. Front
slides southeast across the area through early Saturday morning,
cooling things down and bringing decreasing rain chances through
Sunday from northwest to southeast. If pattern persists, may be
able to end chances sooner. High temperatures Wednesday through
Friday are forecast in the upper 70s near 80, falling into the 60s
for the weekend behind the front, with lows in the 60s then
falling to the 50s late week.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 640 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

VFR conditions anticipated. Brief IFR deck has exited and radars
showing increasing precip trends, so went with a SHRA mention but
no limitations anticipated out of this last band. Still too low
confidence in any additional precip mention beyond 14Z.




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