Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 130534 AAB
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1234 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1233 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1022 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014

HAVE UPDATED ZONES TO REFRESH WORDING AND REMOVE MENTION OF
EVENING SHOWERS. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS VORT MAX THAT WAS
SPINNING OVER NRN WISCONSIN HAS MAD AN EXIT TO THE EAST. HAVE
ALSO ADJUSTED SKY COVER TO REFLECT CURRENT CLEARING TREND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014

CONCERN FOR SHORT TERM IS FREEZE/FROST HEADLINES FOR TONIGHT

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS
THE PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE MOST COVERAGE ACROSS
SAWYER AND PRICE COUNTIES. THIS PRECIPITATION WILL END BY 00Z
TOWARD SUNSET. SATELLITE INDICATES MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE
REGION WITH SOME BREAKS.

AS THE SHOWERS END...THE CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING THE RIDGE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
FORECAST REGION. MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN PLACING THE CENTER OF THE
RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN MN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. THEE WERE
SOME SCATTERED AREAS OF LOW TEMPS BELOW 30 THIS MORNING BUT WITH
THE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT... AREAS GENERALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY
2 IN MN SHOULD SEE A WIDESPREAD FREEZE SO A FREEZE WARNING WILL BE
POSTED THERE. AREAS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2 IN MN AND ALL OF NW WI
WILL SEE WIDESPREAD FROST WITH A COULD LOW- LYING AREAS POSSIBLY
SEEING TEMPS BELOW 30. A FROST ADVISORY WILL BE POSTED THERE. THE
ONLY QUESTION IS HOW QUICK THE CLOUDS CLEAR OUT. IF THERE THEY DO
CLEAR OUT FASTER THAN FORECASTED...THE ADVISORY MAY HAVE TO BE
UPGRADED TO A FREEZE WARNING.

THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ON SATURDAY
WITH MAINLY PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH WARMER TEMPS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014

A BROAD MID LVL TROF WILL VERY SLOWLY MOVE EAST FROM THE NRN PLAINS
TO THE GREAT LAKES THIS PERIOD. WITHIN THIS FLOW A   FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL CROSS THE CWA SUNDAY WITH LIGHT RAIN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
SOUTH FROM THE NRN ROCKIES TO THE MIDWEST BEHIND THE DEPARTING
FRONT. AS THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH MOVES SOUTH OF THE REGION AN
APPROACHING FRONT WILL PRODUCE A WARM ADVECTION REGIME TUESDAY NIGHT
OVER THE NRN TIER OF ZONES. IN ADDITION TO RESTRICTING THE LEVEL OF
NOCTURNAL COOLING...A FEW CLOUDS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE. AS THE
FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA AN ELONGATING SFC HIGH ACROSS ONTARIO
WILL PRODUCE AN EASTERLY FETCH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THE NORTH
SHORE WEDNESDAY. THIS MAY ALLOW SOME CLOUDS/SHOWERS TO OCCUR ALONG
THE ELEVATED TERRAIN. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EXTENT OF
THE CLOUDS/PRECIP AT THIS POINT SO LATER UPDATES MAY BE REQUIRED. A
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL SEND THE SFC HIGH WELL EAST OF THE REGION
THUR NIGHT WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING. ALLBLEND SOLUTION PAINTS LOW
POPS OVER WRN HALF OF CWA BY FRIDAY MORNING. WITH MID LVL RIDGE AXIS
OVERHEAD AND ANTICYCLONIC BDRY LYR FLOW...NOT SURE ENOUGH DEEP LAYER
SATURATION WILL ACTUALLY OCCUR SO CONFIDENCE ON INITIAL DEVELOPMENT
OF PRECIP LOWERS. BOTH GFS/ECM SUPPORT ANOTHER FRONTAL BDRY WITH
RAIN PUSHING INTO THE CWA EARLY IN THE WEEKEND. TEMPS REMAIN BLO
CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1233 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. PERIODS OF LIGHT
FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN LOW LAYING AREAS EARLY THIS MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  41  60  42  58 /  20  30  10  10
INL  41  57  39  57 /  40  40  20  10
BRD  43  61  41  60 /  10  10  10   0
HYR  41  61  41  59 /  10  30  10  10
ASX  41  62  45  58 /  10  40  10  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ010>012-018-
     019-026.

     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ020-021-025-
     033>038.

WI...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ001>004-
     006>009.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...STEWART
LONG TERM...CANNON
AVIATION...GRANING





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