Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 261139
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
639 AM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014

EARLY THIS MORNING...SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE CWA.
TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA...BUT WERE IN THE LOWER 40S NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS
WERE LIGHT FROM THE WEST.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TODAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE THE INCOMING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. TODAY SHOULD
GENERALLY BE DRY FOR MUCH OF THE REGION...ALTHOUGH STRONG WAA AND
THETA E ADVECTION...ALONG WITH INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER AND
STRONG MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE IN
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA LATER TODAY. THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE CONSIDERABLY ACROSS THE CWA
TONIGHT...AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACH FROM THE DAKOTAS. WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION...AS THE PRECIPITATION WILL LARGELY DEVELOP RIGHT
ACROSS THE CWA.

THE MAIN CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL SHIFT TO THE EASTERN PORTION OF
THE CWA LATER TONIGHT WITH GENERALLY SMALLER POPS ACROSS THE
REGION ON MONDAY. HIGHS TODAY AND MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014

A BROAD H85 TROUGH BECOMES ABSORBED BY THE MAIN UPPER LVL H50 WAVE
CENTERED OVER NRN MINNESOTA MONDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH MODELS DIFFER IN
AMPLITUDE AND POSITION OF VORT MAX...THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
THE H50 LOW MIGRATES SLOWLY OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
THROUGH TUESDAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS DURING THIS TIME AS A CORE OF
COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL PRODUCE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
TO PRODUCE SHOWERS. LATEST NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS DEPICT DEEPLY
SATURATED PROFILES AND SFC BASED CAPE AROUND 100 J/KG ACROSS THE NRN
ZONES TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE CONVECTION WILL SHIFT EAST
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  56  45  56  42 /  20  60  20  50
INL  56  42  57  37 /  40  60  20  60
BRD  60  45  59  38 /  20  30  20  30
HYR  59  46  56  41 /  20  60  20  30
ASX  57  44  57  43 /  10  60  30  40

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GRANING






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