Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 120514
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1214 AM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Very warm temperatures far above normal continue for one more day.

- Dry and breezy conditions lead to near critical fire weather
conditions Tuesday afternoon.

- Next best chance of precipitation into the weekend.

- Potential for below normal temperatures mid to late month.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 255 PM CDT Mon Mar 11 2024

A very warm day has panned out across the NOrthland today with highs
in the 50s and 60s this afternoon, some of which are breaking high
daily temperature records. Temperatures will struggle to cool
overnight, with most low temperatures staying above freezing across
the Northland.

Another warm and dry day tomorrow with robust mixing in the
afternoon, especially for areas along and southeast of the Iron
Range in MN and across all of NW WI. Temperatures rise into the 50s
and 60s once again, except for in far north-central Minnesota where
some clouds and CAA should arrive by mid afternoon. RH will likely
drop to 35% or lower across almost all of the forecast area, with
relative humidity of 20-25% or lower along the I-35 corridor,
through the St. Croix River Valley and east into NW WI. In some
portions of the Pine Barrens and St. Croix River Valley on the WI
side of the border, relative humidity could exceed the forecast and
drop into the 15-20% range. A dry cold front passes across the
Northland overnight and through Tuesday morning which will bring a
wind switch to the northwest, and blustery conditions right along
the front. Following the front, mixing improves across the region
with a warm afternoon and steep low level lapse rates which should
allow for a breezy afternoon across the area with sustained winds of
10 to 15 mph and gusts up to 20mph. The strongest winds are along
the North Shore. All this will come together to lead to near-
critical fire weather conditions across portions of east-central and
northeast MN and much of NW WI through Tuesday afternoon.

Winds calm into Tuesday evening and overnight with cooling
temperatures. While temperatures will still be above normal through
the rest of the week, we should return to seeing overnight lows
below freezing and afternoon highs in the 30s and 40s. Thursday
afternoon into Friday a low pressure system passes to our south.
This has steadily trended further south and now looks to barely
touch the southern portions of the CWA. There`s a chance it might
not bring any precipitation whatsoever to the Northland. But it
should bring not only slightly cooler temperatures but also a stout
pressure gradient, leading to a very breezy day Thursday with winds
out of the northeast, felt most prominently near Lake Superior.

Global models are in decent agreement for a clipper to drop over the
Northland into and through the weekend which may bring some
precipitation chances from either rain or snow. All ensemble
solutions are in pretty good agreement at this point that this would
be light, with all solutions less than 0.5" of QPF. Steeper low
level lapse rates could make any precipitation more showery or
squally in nature, with some lake effect possible along the South
Shore.

Looking further ahead through the month of March, latest outlooks
and ensemble trends point towards a cooling pattern - which feels
unique for this year! Outlooks indicate the potential (30-50%)
chance of seeing below normal temperatures by mid to late March,
which could mean temperatures mostly below to around freezing if
that verifies. These cooler temperatures could come with an above
normal chance of precipitation (33-40%, so, marginal).

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1214 AM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024

VFR conditions are expected for most through the period. A cold
front will continue to move through the Northland tonight
exiting eastern portions around or shortly after 12Z Tuesday.
There were some earlier indications IFR clouds may affect KINL
this morning but chances have decreased and we will carry SCT009
as there is less than 20% chance for ceilings. A better chance
for lower ceilings will occur at the end of the period when they
increase to 50-60% by 06Z Wednesday in far northern Minnesota.

In the wake of the cold front today, mixing will deepen and tap into
some stronger wind aloft creating periodic higher gusts. We have
increased gusts a bit with this forecast. The wind is expected to
diminish quickly this evening with the onset of boundary layer
cooling.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 255 PM CDT Mon Mar 11 2024

Light southwest to westerly winds build through Tuesday morning and
afternoon with some gusts to 20 knots possible in select locations
along the North Shore, South Shore, and Apostle Islands for a short
period Tuesday afternoon. Winds calm overnight and become north to
northeasterly Wednesday, with a couple isolated gusts up to 15knots
possible in the afternoon. Winds stay from the northeast into
Thursday and increase in strength as a pressure gradient increases.
Gusts of 20 to 25 knots or greater possible Thursday with waves
approaching 4 feet near the head of the lake.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Levens
AVIATION...Melde
MARINE...Levens


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