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000
FXUS63 KDLH 121109
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
609 AM CDT SUN MAY 12 2013

.AVIATION.../12Z TAF ISSUANCE/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM CDT SUN MAY 12 2013/

SHORT TERM...

TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...

FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THE SHORT TERM...HOWEVER THE
MAIN CONCERNS ARE FOCUSED AROUND TEMPERATURES AND THE CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY.

AFTER A RATHER COOL START TO MOTHER`S DAY...WITH TEMPERATURES
BOTTOMING OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S...WILL ONLY SEE A MODERATE
RISE IN TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE
OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL BE ROUGHLY 3-5 DEG WARMER
THAN YESTERDAY DUE TO AN ABUNDANT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE TODAY.
HOWEVER...WITH 850MB TEMPS -3 TO -6 DEG C REMAINING OVERHEAD...
WILL BE TOUGH TO BREAK EVEN INTO THE UPPER 50S. STARTING OUT SO
COLD DOES NOT HELP EITHER.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY WITH SUNNY
SKIES AND A WARM UPPER RIDGE BEGINNING TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE
ROCKIES TONIGHT. THE TAIL END OF THIS COLD AIR MASS WILL LINGER
ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...WITH TEMPS
BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 20S ONCE AGAIN UNDER CALM WINDS AND CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD AND NW WI...WITH 30S EXPECTED TO THE
WEST.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT QUICKLY TO THE EAST BY EARLY MONDAY
MORNING WITH THE RETURN FLOW OF WARM AIR ADVECTING INTO THE AREA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A WEAK COLD FRONT/SFC TROUGH WILL RIDE
ALONG THE NRN EDGE OF THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND COMBINE WITH
THE WAA TO PRODUCE A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
NORTHLAND THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE IS PRETTY MEAGER
WITH QPF AMTS GIVEN THE MOVEMENT OF THE TROUGH THROUGH A STRONG
UPPER RIDGE...WITH ROBUST SUPPRESSIVE FORCING. IF A LINE OF
SHOWERS SETS UP...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR DECENT RAINFALL AS
PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 3/4 TO 1 INCH. INSTABILITY WILL BE
NEGLIGIBLE...SO THERE IS NO MENTION OF T-STORMS AT THIS TIME.

LONG TERM...

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...

A STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME WILL DEVELOP OVER THE DAKOTAS
AND PUSH EAST INTO MINNESOTA MONDAY NIGHT...CENTERING OVER THE
NORTHLAND TUESDAY. THE LATEST NAM/ECM ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT H85
TEMPS WARM TO AROUND 20 C ACROSS THE SRN ZONES TUES. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR HIGH TEMPS TUESDAY TO WARM WELL INTO THE 70S TO LOW 80S.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE IN AREAS ADJACENT TO LAKE SUPERIOR...MAINLY
FROM THE TWIN PORTS AND ALONG THE NORTH SHORE...WHERE
NORTHEAST/EAST WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MUCH COOLER.

NOCTURNAL CONVECTION/POSSIBLE MCS IS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT ON
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE WAA OVER NW MINNESOTA...TRACKING EAST ALONG
THE BORDERLAND THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. AS THE MORNING CONVECTION
DIMINISHES THE FOCUS WILL TURN TO A DEPENDING LOW OVER ONTARIO WITH
SFC REFLECTION COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH INTO NORTH CENTRAL
MINNESOTA BY TUESDAY AFTRN. THE FRONT MAY TRIGGER SCT SHRA/TSTMS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS IT TRACKS EAST OVER NE MINNESOTA...AND
NRN WISCONSIN. HOWEVER...THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR STORMS TUESDAY WILL
BE A STRONG MID LEVEL CAP...AND SOUNDINGS/RH PROFILES SHOWING A LACK
OF SUFFICIENT MOISTURE.

A ZONAL FLOW WITH SFC RIDING RETURNS TO THE UPPER MIDWEST
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. THE LATEST ECM/GFS ARE BOTH SUGGESTING A SFC LOW
TRACKS ACROSS NEBRASKA/IOWA THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WHICH
WOULD PLACE THE WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR REGION IN A COOL
EAST/NORTHEAST FLOW WITH ONGOING CHANCES FOR RAIN.

&&

.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  50  32  54  39 /   0   0  30  10
INL  52  31  62  43 /   0   0  30  10
BRD  55  34  69  48 /   0   0  30  10
HYR  52  25  57  43 /   0   0  40  10
ASX  47  27  55  41 /   0   0  30  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...GRANING