Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 291130 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
630 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

UPDATED FOR THE NEW 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

AT 330 AM...CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WERE FOUND ACROSS THE
CWA. SOME PATCHY FOG AND DENSE FOG HAS BEEN CROPPING UP AT TIMES
THIS MORNING BUT NOT REALLY STICKING AROUND TOO LONG IN ANY ONE
LOCATION. CONTEMPLATED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY BUT THE FOG AT THIS
POINT HAS BEEN TOO PATCHY. TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY IN THE 50S.
DULUTH RADAR SHOWED SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS TRYING TO GET GOING ACROSS
FAR NORTHERN MN...WITH A SMALL BATCH OF THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF
THE BORDER. A STRONGER AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS DIVING SE ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN MANITOBA...EN ROUTE TO NW ONTARIO.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TODAY WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER
ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. DEEP LAYER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST ONCE
AGAIN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...AS A SHORTWAVE DROPS S/SE DURING
THE PERIOD OF MAX DAYTIME HEATING TODAY. SPC HAS AT LEAST A
MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA...WITH A
SLIGHT RISK FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA. THIS AREA
DOES LOOK TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH MORE FAVORABLE FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND
IN THE VICINITY OF THE BEST UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS.

FOR TODAY...WILL PULL BACK A BIT ON POPS FOR THE MORNING HOURS
BASED ON HIGH RESOLUTION MODELING AND AN EXPECTED PEAK IN ACTIVITY
FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WILL GENERALLY GO WITH
SCATTERED WORDING FOR THE MORNING UNDER PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. COULD
STILL SEE SOME PATCHY FOG/DENSE FOG FOR A SHORT TIME THIS MORNING.
BY AFTERNOON...MLCAPE VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 1500-2000 J/KG CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA...ESPECIALLY IN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA.
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR FROM THE SREF OF
25 TO 30 KNOTS WILL ALSO MAXIMIZE IN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA. THE
MAIN THREAT APPEARS TO BE LARGE HAIL...ALTHOUGH SPC NOTES THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG WINDS GIVEN FAST FORWARD MOTION OF THE
STORMS AND EVAPORATIVE COOLING BENEATH THE CLOUD LEVEL. WILL HAVE
LIKELY POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. HIGHS TODAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

FOR TONIGHT...THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO
THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST AND SOUTH. DRIER AIR WILL
GRADUALLY WORK ITS WAY IN FROM THE NORTH...BEHIND THE DEPARTING
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE...AS HIGH PRESSURE IN ONTARIO POKES DOWN
INTO THE CWA. COULD STILL BE SOME STRONG/SEVERE STORMS IN THE
EVENING THOUGH.

TUESDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE MUCH MORE QUIET ACROSS THE NORTHLAND.
WE COULD SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS...ESPECIALLY IN NW WI.
BUT THE REST OF THE CWA SHOULD BE ON THE DRY SIDE. DEVELOPING EAST
WINDS WILL BRING SOME POTENTIAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO COASTAL
AREAS...BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA SHOULD SEE A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE AND HIGHS IN THE 70S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

THE NORTHLAND WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD IN COOL NW FLOW IN THE UPPER
LEVELS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE LAKE SUPERIOR
REGION. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL HELP PROMOTE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
THERE COULD BE A LITTLE FOG EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A PASSING
SHORTWAVE COULD BRING SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE ARROWHEAD WEDNESDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
UPPER MIDWEST THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AND THIS COULD BRING SHOWERS
AND STORMS THROUGH THE REGION.

SATURDAY MIGHT BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. THERE WILL BE INCREASING SOUTHERLY
FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS AS A PROMINENT COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
PLAINS. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS
THAT COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

THERE COULD BE LINGERING FOG AT NE MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN
TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
DEVELOP THIS MORNING AND LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE
THIS MORNING OR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIER SHOWERS IN THE
STORMS COULD BRING BRIEF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. THERE
IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER TODAY...MOST NOTABLY FOR KBRD.
THE MAIN THREAT THATS WILL COME WITH THUNDERSTORMS IS LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS.

THE REGION SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  79  55  66  49 /  70  40  10   0
INL  78  50  73  47 /  60  10  10   0
BRD  83  57  77  53 /  50  20  10   0
HYR  79  55  71  45 /  70  50  10   0
ASX  77  53  64  45 /  70  50  10   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GROCHOCINSKI
SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI



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