Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 210524

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1224 AM CDT SAT MAY 21 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 343 PM CDT Fri May 20 2016

Fire weather issues have been the main issue today, with very dry
RH values and just enough wind in some locations to produce some
near critical fire weather conditions. The large scale surface
ridge is shifting off to the east, but a weak ridge of high
pressure will develop over the area tonight and then slide slowly
off to the east. This will produce lighter winds over the area
tomorrow than we had even today...and lighter yet than yesterday.
A weak shortwave aloft has been helping to produce afternoon
showers and the isolated lightning strike or two this
afternoon...and expect this to happen again tomorrow but farther
east over the arrowhead. With all these weak features, the
sensible weather remains fairly quiet and warm. The deep mixing
should produce temperatures in the mid 70s to around 80 for many
locations, producing a fabulous day for getting outside for
recreational activities.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 343 PM CDT Fri May 20 2016

Upper level ridging will cover the forecast area Saturday night and
Sunday. At the surface, high pressure will have moved over the
eastern Great Lakes. This will allow a warm southwest flow of air
into the region. By late Sunday night, model differences begin to
show up with the GFS spreading showers and storms over all but
northwest Wisconsin. Meanwhile, the NAM/ECMWF/GEM are all rain free.
Used a blend of the previous forecast with the model guidance for
pops Sunday night. This is in response to the upper ridging moving
east and short wave energy lifting into the Red River valley. Those
differences continue to Monday. The NAM is the slowest, then the
GEM, with the ECMWF/GFS having similar timing. There are differences
in the QPF field and have used a blend for pops Monday. The GEM lags
behind Monday night while the GFS/ECMWF are similar. Have the
highest pops over northwest Wisconsin and the Arrowhead, with lower
pops to the west as the main shortwave moves to the east. Tuesday
through Thursday finds a southwest flow aloft with several embedded
shortwaves working across the region. These shortwaves will be
difficult to time through the area and have a mention of pops
Tuesday through Thursday.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1223 AM CDT Sat May 21 2016

VFR conditions are expected throughout the TAF period,
as high pressure remains in control. Winds will be relatively light
and variable throughout the period.


DLH  47  75  49  75 /   0   0   0   0
INL  43  79  49  80 /  20   0   0   0
BRD  48  78  51  79 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  43  77  46  79 /   0   0   0   0
ASX  43  76  47  76 /   0   0   0   0


.DLH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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