Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 222042
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
342 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

LINGERING CLOUD COVER/SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD FAR NRN
WISCONSIN ZONES WILL EXIT TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE AND MUCH DRIER AIR BUILDS ACROSS MN. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
OF AROUND AN INCH WILL BE FOUND IN THE ARROWHEAD...WITH 1 TO 3
INCHES OVER IRON COUNTY.

CURRENT VISIBLE SAT IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED CLEARING LINE
EXTENDING FROM KINL...SOUTH TO KMZH...TO ALONG THE WESTERN WISCONSIN
BORDER. TO THE WEST OF THIS LINE WHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED...TEMPS
ARE IN THE MIDDLE 40S WITH WIDESPREAD RH VALUES IN THE 20S.
MEANWHILE.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE CHILLY...IN THE TEENS TO MID 20S ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND. THE LOWEST VALUES WILL BE FOUND ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MN
WHERE DEW POINTS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS.
THIS DRY AIR...COMBINED WITH SFC RIDGING/LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES
WILL RESULT IN VERY EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. HAVE LOWERED MIN
TEMPS FROM PREV FCST...BUT MAY STILL NOT BE COLD ENOUGH IN THE
KBRD-KGPZ AREA.

THURSDAY WILL BE DRY AND SUNNY WITH CRITICALLY LOW RH VALUES. NAM
BUFR SOUNDINGS DEPICT AN AFTERNOON MIXED LAYER TO H85 /5 KFT/. NOT
ANTICIPATING RED FLAG CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY AT THIS TIME AS WINDS
WILL BE GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KT. HIGHER GUSTS TO 15 KT WILL BE
FOUND IN AREAS WITH HIGHER RH...OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD/NRN
WISCONSIN.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM NW ONTARIO THROUGH WESTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AS OF THURSDAY EVENING. THIS
WILL HELP KEEP THE REGION CLEAR AND DRY. THURSDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES
WILL BE QUITE COOL IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S. THE MODELS ARE
INDICATING A FRONTOGENETICAL BAND COULD BRING A LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW
TO THE NORTHLAND LATER THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. AT
THIS TIME...SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION WILL LIKELY BE LESS THAN 1 INCH.
THE PCPN WILL HAVE HARD TIME MAKING INTO THE ARROWHEAD AND NW
WISCONSIN DUE TO THE RELATIVELY DRY LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW. KEPT
FRIDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE SINCE THE
CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO RECOVER FROM THE COLD
MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES. SATURDAY SHOULD BE WARMER WITH MORE
SUNSHINE.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION LATER IN THE
WEEKEND...WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE THE NORTHLAND WITH A STRETCH OF
RELATIVELY SUNNY AND SEASONALLY NORMAL WEATHER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE MODELS ARE SHOWING AN INVERTED TROUGH SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS COULD BRING LIGHT RAIN
TO THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA...BUT THE MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO
SUGGEST THIS COULD STAY WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE THE
INVERTED TROUGH FALLS DISSIPATES BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 103 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. LATEST NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD MIXING AT ALL TERMINALS
THIS AFTERNOON...SO INCREASED WINDS AND WIND GUSTS. THE LARGE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE MOVING
EASTWARDS TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND
THE LOW AND THIS WILL RESULT IN RISING CEILINGS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  24  46  25  44 /   0   0   0  30
INL  17  45  20  48 /   0   0   0  20
BRD  20  50  30  48 /   0   0  30  50
HYR  22  48  20  52 /  10  10   0  30
ASX  25  44  22  46 /  40  10   0  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ004.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ121-
     140>148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI/STEWART
AVIATION...WL





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