Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 080548
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1148 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM WAS OVER THE ARROWHEAD AT 20Z. SFC TEMPS
WERE STILL WARM OVER THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S. NEAR THE SFC LOW CENTER...TEMPS WERE IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. WHERE PCPN WAS REACHING THE GROUND...IT WAS
IN THE FORM OF SNOW. HOWEVER...WILL STILL SEE SOME RAIN MIX IN AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY FROM HINCKLEY EWD TO HYR AND PBH...AND
IMMEDIATELY NEAR THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR.

THIS SYSTEM WILL DRIFT SEWD AN REACH EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR BY 12Z
MONDAY. WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM SFC TEMPS...WILL CONTINUE TO
SEE A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS NW WI UNTIL ABOUT 03Z. BY
THIS TIME THE COLD AIR AND LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING WILL CHANGE THE
PTYPE TO ALL SNOW. ELSEWHERE...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH
THE PASSING OF THE SFC LOW AND COMBINE WITH CAA TO INCREASE SFC WIND
SPEEDS AND CREATE SOME BLOWING SNOW. WILL LEAVE THE ADVISORY AS IS
OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. FOR THE ADVISORY
ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE...HAVE ADDED DOUGLAS COUNTY. THIS IS IN
RESPONSE TO THE LATEST ARW/NMM RUNS INDICATING THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR A GRAVITY WAVE TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN DOUGLAS
COUNTY. WILL SEE SOME PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IF THIS WAVE
DOES DEVELOP. HOWEVER...AS MENTIONED EARLIER...SFC TEMPS WILL BE
RATHER WARM THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. EVEN WITH THE CAA LATER
TONIGHT...THESE FACTORS COMBINED WILL KEEP THE SNOW AMOUNTS IN CHECK
TONIGHT. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL ALSO BE A BIT LOWER ELSEWHERE UNTIL THE
CAA GETS STRONGER LATE TONIGHT. BUT AT THAT TIME...QPF AMOUNTS WILL
BE DECREASING AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL FEATURE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF NNW ARCTIC
FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE IN CANADA GRADUALLY NOSES INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN INDICATE GRADUAL COLD AIR
ADVECTION INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE COLDEST PERIOD APPEARS
TO BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...WHEN THE 850 HPA
TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET TO -21 TO -25 DEGREES CELSIUS.

THE ARCTIC FLOW FOR MOST OF THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL BE
RELATIVELY DRY...WHICH WILL FAVOR CLEAR SKIES FOR ALL BUT DOWNWIND
AREAS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS LIKELY FOR
NW WISCONSIN. HOWEVER...MODERATE SNOWFALL RATES ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY
NIGHT. THERE WILL BE AN INVERTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
FORECAST AREA...ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WILL BE OVER
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THE TROUGH WILL PROVIDE EXTRA LIFT OVER THE
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR REGION. ALSO...MOISTURE WILL BE DEEPER AT THIS
TIME. ANOTHER FEATURE RESULTED IN INCREASING PCPN CHANCES AND
SNOWFALL ACROSS DOUGLAS AND BAYFIELD PENINSULA. THE
ARW/NMM/GFS/NCEPWRF ARE INDICATING A GRAVITY WAVE WILL SET UP MONDAY
EVENING ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF BAYFIELD AND DOUGLAS COUNTIES...AND
POSSIBLY ALL THE WAY TO PINE COUNTY.

THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL FINALLY MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL DROP
OUT OF CANADA INTO THE NORTHLAND OR LAKE SUPERIOR REGION LATE IN THE
WEEK...PROBABLY SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THIS WEEK.
THERE COULD BE MODERATION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES
TO ROTATE THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. CIGS/VSBYS WILL
ALTERNATE BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR OVERNIGHT...AND AS DRIER AIR MOVES
IN ON MONDAY...IT WILL GRADUALLY BECOME VFR. IN ADDITION TO THE
FALLING SNOW OVERNIGHT WE WILL HAVE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW...WHICH
WILL FURTHER IMPACT VSBYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  13  14  -3   7 /  80  70  30   0
INL   9  10 -10   1 /  80  60   0   0
BRD   9  12  -3  10 /  70  50   0   0
HYR  17  17   2  10 /  80  70  40  20
ASX  20  20   5  10 /  90  90  60  50

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ003-004.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     WIZ001-002.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR MNZ010-018-025-
     026-033>036.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...DAP


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