


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN
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963 FXUS63 KDLH 062039 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 339 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Chances for showers and thunderstorms return Monday afternoon into Tuesday. A few storms Monday afternoon and evening may be strong with gusty winds and small hail. - Dry midweek before chances for showers and storms return for the latter half of the week and into the weekend. Some of the storms may be strong to severe. - Near normal temperatures prevail most of the week and weekend aside from a brief warmup Thursday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 339 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025 High pressure was in control across the Upper Midwest and Canadian Prairies this afternoon resulting in partly to mostly sunny skies with light winds across the region. Some stronger easterly winds off Lake Superior were keeping cooler conditions in place near the head of the lake. Dry conditions will continue for tonight with hi-res guidance backing off on any shower potential. Zonal flow aloft will bring a shortwave trough through the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest for Monday into Tuesday. Hi- res CAMs bring an area of showers and storms into the region Monday afternoon. CAPE will be around 800-1200 J/kg with effective shear around 25 knots. This will likely lead to clusters of storms that could produce wind gusts to 40 to 50 mph and non-severe hail. This threat for strong storms will be across mainly northeastern Minnesota through the afternoon hours with non-severe storms and showers across the region for the overnight hours into Tuesday morning. Some brief, heavy downpours will also be possible with PWATs reaching 1-1.25 inches. Highs both days will be in the 70s and lower 80s with some cooler areas near Lake Superior. Surface high pressure then looks to keep dry conditions in place for Wednesday despite northwest flow aloft in the wake of an upper low. Winds turn southerly on the backside of the high and will bring in warmer air for Wednesday and Thursday with widespread upper 70s to middle 80s in place by Thursday. Moisture will also increase Thursday with dewpoints reaching into the 60s signaling a return to muggy conditions. A weak shortwave will crest the upper ridge to our west Wednesday night into Thursday and lead to some showers and thunderstorms during this time period. Given the timing and the weakness of this wave, not expecting much in terms of strong or severe storms. A more potent upper low then looks to move along the International Border Friday bringing another round of showers and thunderstorms to the region for Friday into Saturday. Timing and spatial differences still exist in the global models reducing confidence in this time period. However, due to the potency of the upper low and early signals of the convective parameter space, there is a chance for some strong to severe storms on Friday if the timing works out. Heavy rainfall will also be possible with this system as PWATs approach 1.5 inches ahead of this system. Chances for rainfall will linger through the weekend on the backside of the low. Temperatures do look to moderate back to seasonable levels behind the system with highs returning to the 70s and lower 80s starting Friday. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1239 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025 VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period. The gusty winds at DLH have settled down to around 15 knots with light winds elsewhere. Have removed smoke and shower chances at INL as chances for both have decreased. && .MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/... Issued at 339 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025 Breezy easterly winds will diminish this evening and become light overnight at around 5 knots. Waves will be a bit slower to come down, so will leave the advisory in place through mid- evening to account for this. Easterly winds persist for Monday at 5 to 15 knots before decreasing to 5 to 10 knots overnight and Tuesday. Chances for showers and thunderstorms return late tomorrow afternoon into early Tuesday. Additional thunderstorm chances return late this week for late Thursday into Saturday. For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt. && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM CDT this evening for MNZ037. WI...Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM CDT this evening for WIZ001. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for LSZ121- 144>148-150. && $$ DISCUSSION...BJH AVIATION...BJH MARINE...BJH