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000
FXUS63 KDLH 011122
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
522 AM CST SAT MAR 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CST SAT MAR 1 2014

RELATIVELY TRANQUIL WEATHER TODAY/TONIGHT/SUNDAY WITH ARCTIC AIR
REMAINING WELL-ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION. A FEW CLOUDS IN THE
2-4 KFT RANGE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA
THIS MORNING..PERHAPS PRODUCING SOME FLURRIES IN A FEW LOCALES.
BUT OTHERWISE..IT WILL SIMPLY BE DARN COLD AGAIN THIS MORNING..
WITH VERY COLD TO DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS PERSISTING UNTIL LATE
MORNING.

SUBTLE LOW AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCE WILL RAPIDLY TRANSLATE EASTWARD
ACROSS THE MN/IA BORDER REGION LATER TODAY/THIS EVENING..BUT ONLY
EFFECT FOR THE DULUTH CWA IS EXPECTED TO BE SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA..WITH PERHAPS A FEW FLURRIES OVER THE FAR
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF OUR NW WISCONSIN ZONES. THE MAIN EFFECT OF
THIS WAVE PASSAGE WILL BE TO ALLOW A SLIGHT BUILDING OF LOW LEVEL
PRESSURES AND VERY COLD AIR /AROUND -30C AT 925MB AND AROUND -35C
AT 850 MB/ TO SPILL INTO MUCH OF NRN MN THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. DESPITE THE LONGER DAYS AND WARMING EFFECTS OF SUN ON THE
LOWER ALBEDO FORESTED AREAS..THIS SHUD STILL HOLD HIGH TEMPS
SOMEWHERE NEAR ZERO TODAY OVER THE NW HALF OF THE CWA. RIGHT
NOW..IT APPEARS AS THOUGH APPARENT TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MINUS
TEENS THIS AFTERNOON..BUT THE DAY SHIFT WILL NEED TO MONITOR SHORT
TERM TRENDS SINCE WE MAY BE FLIRTING WITH WIND CHILL ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY OVER PARTS OF NCENT MN EVEN
AFTER THE CURRENT WARNINGS/ADVISORIES EXPIRE BETWEEN 10 AM AND
NOON.

THE COLDEST AIR WILL BE OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING..AND TEMPS
WILL RAPIDLY PLUMMET THIS EVENING AFTER SUNSET. HOWEVER..WE
ACTUALLY GET WARMING 925/850 TEMPS AFTER MIDNIGHT..SO TEMPS MAY
STEADY OFF BY AROUND MIDNIGHT WITH ONLY A SLOW RADIATIONAL DECLINE
FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. EVEN SO..WIDESPREAD -20F TO -30F LOWS
ARE EXPECTED OVER THE ENTIRE CWA SUNDAY MORNING..WITH SOME OF THE
FAVORED LOW LYING AREAS..NAMELY CRANE LAKE/EMBARRASS/TOWER/LONGVILLE
AND WESTERN RURAL KOOCHICHING COUNTY COULD EASILY REACH LOWS OF
-40F TO -45F. AT THESE TEMPS..EVEN 5 KNOTS OF WIND CAN PRODUCE
EXTREMELY COLD APPARENT TEMPS APPROACHING 50 BELOW..AND THERE IS
LITTLE QUESTION WE WILL NEED ADDITIONAL WIND CHILL WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FOR TONIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER..SINCE WE HAVE HEADLINES OUT
CURRENTLY FOR THIS MORNING..WE MADE THE DECISION TO LET THE
DAY SHIFT RE-ISSUE THE HEADLINES AS APPROPRIATE LATER TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CST SAT MAR 1 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OVER THE FA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. EVEN WITH
HIGH PRESSURE STILL IN CHARGE AT THE SFC...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
CROSSES NORTHERN MN MONDAY NIGHT. THIS PUTS THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS
OF THE FA IN THE AREA OF BEST LIFT TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT SNOW.
MODELS DISAGREE ON THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR THAT IS IN PLACE AND THE
OVERALL COVERAGE/AMOUNT OF QPF. HAVE BLENDED THE ECMWF/GFS FOR POPS
AND WENT LIGHT ON THE QPF/SNOW AMOUNTS. MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE
ON TUESDAY. ECMWF IS DRY...GFS/GEM HANG ONTO SOME LIGHT QPF OVER THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FA FROM THE BRAINERD LAKES INTO NW WI. USED A
BLENDED APPROACH AND HAVE SMALL POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD. WHILE
THE SFC HIGH DRIFTS INTO ONTARIO...A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE DIVES INTO
SW MN BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SMALL POPS OVER THE
FAR WESTERN EDGE OF THE FA WHERE THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT TO
WARRANT THEM. A SLOW MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
TRAVEL ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND INTO ONTARIO
THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO LOW POPS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY WHEN THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH.
TIMING/MOISTURE AND UNCERTAINTIES ON WHERE THE BEST LIFT WILL BE
FOUND WARRANT THESE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 522 AM CST SAT MAR 1 2014

VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH   0 -24   3 -21 /   0   0   0   0
INL  -8 -31   0 -30 /  10   0   0   0
BRD  -1 -26   3 -24 /  10   0   0   0
HYR   4 -24   5 -24 /  10   0   0   0
ASX   5 -22   6 -21 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ012-020-021-
     033>038.

     WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ010-011-018-019-
     025-026.

WI...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR WIZ001-002-
     006>008.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...GSF