Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FXUS63 KAPX 181712
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
112 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 404 AM EDT FRI JUL 18 2014

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND REMAIN IN CONTROL INTO THE
START OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN MAINLY DRY AND STEADILY
WARMING CONDITIONS WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
RETURN TO NORMAL LEVELS INTO THE WEEKEND THEN ACTUALLY BE ABOVE
NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1226 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2014

BOOSTED HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BASED ON LATE MORNING
TRENDS...WITH NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 404 AM EDT FRI JUL 18 2014

...BEAUTIFUL AGAIN...

IMPACTS: NONE.

CURRENT WEATHER AND SYNOPTIC PATTERN:

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...AREA VAD WINDS AND SFC OBS SHOWING DRIEST AIR
AROUND IS IN THE GREAT LAKES WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE
REGION. ANY SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY REMAIN NOWHERE NEAR
MICHIGAN...SEEN ALONG/AROUND MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE ATLANTIC
COAST...THROUGH NRN FLORIDA...SKIMMING THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND BACK
INTO TEXAS.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN/WEATHER EVOLUTION:

NO BIG CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN...WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE
GRADUALLY SLIDING OVER THE ATLANTIC COAST...BUT MAINTAINING A STRONG
INFLUENCE OVER NRN MICHIGAN. WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE OUT OF THE
SOUTH/SW WITH SLOW WAA IN WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW. NO SIGNIFICANT SFC
MOISTURE INCREASE OR CUMULUS...AS GOOD BL MIXING ENSUES YET AGAIN
INTO THE OVERALL DRY ATMOSPHERE (PWATS AROUND 0.75"). LAKE BREEZES
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON COLLECTING THE BEST (MINIMAL) CUMULUS COVERAGE
ACROSS FAR NE LOWER MICHIGAN...OTHERWISE SUNNY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
A LITTLE HIGHER...INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S. NEARLY CLEAR SKIES AT
NIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE 40S TO LOWER HALF OF THE 50S. COOLEST IN
THE LOWEST LYING AREAS WITH DIURNAL SWINGS OF MORE THAN 30 DEGREES.
THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE DRIVERS OF
AN ABSOLUTELY SPECTACULAR

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 AM EDT FRI JUL 18 2014

...WARMING TREND...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: LOW.

A FAIRLY STRAIGHT FORWARD FORECAST TO START FOR NORTHERN MICHIGAN
WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN CONTROL ALONG WITH SLOWLY INCREASING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS OF WELL INTO THE 70S TO
THE LOWER 80S. A WEAK COLD FRONT THEN APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST
EARLY NEXT WEEK...THOUGH AM DOUBTFUL IT WILL MAKE A WHOLE LOT OF
PROGRESS BEFORE POSSIBLY WASHING OUT WITH RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT.
THEREFORE HAVE RAISED HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S TO AROUND 90
FOR BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WHICH WHEN COMBINED WITH HIGHER
HUMIDITY AND OUR RECENT STRETCH OF COOL WEATHER SHOULD FEEL PRETTY
HOT AND STEAMY. A BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES LIKELY ARRIVES FOR MIDWEEK FROM A STRONGER COLD FRONT
AND POSSIBLE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE MIDDLE 70S
TO LOWER 80S AND THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 110 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2014

SUMMARY: GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS THROUGH THE UPCOMING TAF PERIOD
WITH HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES.

RESTRICTIONS: VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY DOMINATE THE UPCOMING
TAF PERIOD.  WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT...WILL AGAIN BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR FOG POTENTIAL.  LLEVEL
AIRMASS TONIGHT WILL BE ARRIVING FROM SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...
WHERE THERE WAS A LITTLE BIT OF PATCHY GROUND FOG.  FEEL THAT THE
POTENTIAL WILL BE A LITTLE BIT BETTER THAN IT WAS THIS MORNING...BUT
STILL NOT TOO GREAT. AT THIS POINT...EXPECT SOME POSSIBLE PATCHY
GROUND FOG...BUT WILL ONLY INCLUDE MVFR MENTION AT PLN/MBL IN THIS
TAF PACKAGE...WITH NO FOG CONCERNS AT TVC/APN.

JUST A FEW RAGGED CUMULUS TODAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT.
CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT LOOKS A LITTLE MORE ROBUST FOR THE DAY ON
SATURDAY...BUT STILL LIKELY NOT TO CREATE A CEILING.

WINDS: LOCAL LAKE BREEZES 5-10KTS FOR THE AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH TO
CALM/LIGHT-VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.  FOR THE DAY ON SATURDAY...LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS EARLY WILL GIVE WAY TO LOCAL LAKE BREEZES RIGHT
NEAR THE END OF THIS TAF CYCLE.

LLWS: NO THREAT THIS CYCLE.

THUNDER: NO THREAT THIS CYCLE.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 404 AM EDT FRI JUL 18 2014

QUIET CONDITIONS OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS. AN OVERALL SOUTHERLY
WIND 10 KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL LEAD TO AFTERNOON
ONSHORE FLOW...WHILE DRY AIR AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING LOTS
OF SUN AND PRECIPITATION-FREE WEATHER. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS POSSIBLY
RETURN EARLY TO MID NEXT WORK WEEK...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE
MICHIGAN ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS DUE TO COASTAL CONVERGENCE.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ARNOTT
SYNOPSIS...AS
SHORT TERM...SMD
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...ARNOTT
MARINE...SMD





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