Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 141630

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1130 AM EST Wed Feb 14 2018

Issued at 1128 AM EST Wed Feb 14 2018

Sun-filled skies and gusty southwest winds really doing a number
on temperatures this morning, with current readings pushing well
up into the 30s. Sunshine and those winds will continue, allowing
afternoon highs to reach into the 40s south of the big bridge,
with readings just a bit cooler to the north of it.

UPDATE Issued at 627 AM EST Wed Feb 14 2018

Initial batch of stratocu has largely exited eastern upper MI. A
little bit more is trying to form in the CVX/Petoskey area, but by
and large it appears the morning will be less cloudy than
initially thought. Forecast has been adjusted that way, and with a
sunnier start, have also tacked on a degree to max temps today.


.NEAR TERM...(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 313 AM EST Wed Feb 14 2018

...Warm afternoon ahead...

High impact weather potential: Patchy freezing drizzle possible late
tonight, mainly in eastern upper MI.

Low level sw-erly flow is in progress, between high pressure off of
New England, and low pressure in s central Canada. Breezy conditions
are seen in spots, particularly near Lake MI on thru the Straits and
into far northern Huron. Warm advection will persist thru tonight,
though by morning low pressure will have moved to eastern Superior,
and the next cold front will be just to our nw. Models continue
to insist on the low levels eventually becoming quite sludgy, and
if/when that happens, some drizzle/fzdz will emerge. Otherwise,
clouds/temps are the main concerns.

Some bands of strato cu have developed during the night from Beaver
Isl and Emmet Co up to the Sault. Further growth of these clouds
will occur thru mid-morning via nocturnal cooling processes,
before better diurnal heating counters that. Morning clouds will
be much more prevalent north of M-68 than south, though still the
opportunity for some stratocu to form further south. Still,
northern lower MI will clearly enjoy mostly sunny skies from
midday thru the afternoon. Eastern upper may have enough moisture
trapped beneath a 2.5k ft inversion (thanks to being downwind of
Lake MI) to stay partly cloudy thru the afternoon.

Expect max temps in the mid/upper 30s in the Straits area and north,
near 40f to the mid 40s in the bulk of northern lower MI. This will
be our warmest day since Jan 27.

Plenty of indications from guidance that low-level moisture (below
the 2.5k ft inversion) will increase drastically tonight.
Development of widespread stratus is not a sure thing. But given
plenty of snow cover here and upstream, and some melting of that
snow today (meltwater will contribute to low-level moisture),
fundamentally the setup is favorable for at least some stratus.
Models tend to be too fast to do this, and will back off their pace
a smidge. Main increase in cloud cover will kick in after 9-10pm,
with mostly cloudy skies overnight. Patchy drizzle is a distinct
possibility, though the moist layer is a little thin to see a lot.
Temps appear likely to stay above freezing longer in much of
northern MI, and freezing drizzle chances look less impressive,
especially in northern lower. Will maintain a mention of freezing
drizzle in the HWO, but mostly for eastern upper MI.

Min temps around 30f to the lower 30s.


.SHORT TERM...(Thursday through Friday)
Issued at 313 AM EST Wed Feb 14 2018

...Mild then Cold Again...

Primary Forecast Concern...Pops.

Perhaps some drizzle or freezing drizzle Thursday morning mainly
confined to eastern upper as moisture is pretty shallow (limited to
from the surface up to about 1500 or 2000 feet). Meanwhile, there is
steady cold advection by late in the day and especially Thursday
night. Therefore, could see northwest flow lake effect snow showers
developing Thursday night into Friday. The airmass looks rather dry
so little snow accumulation is expected. Still mild Thursday with
highs in the 30s to near 40. Colder Thursday night into Friday with
lows in the teens to near 20 and highs in the upper teens to middle

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 313 AM EST Wed Feb 14 2018

...Cold then Moderating Temperatures Once Again...

It does not look like it will warm up quite as much this weekend.
Extended models are in general agreement that cold air will hold on
through the weekend (especially Saturday) before milder readings try
to sneak in here early next week. A short wave moving through the
flow will bring a chance for some light snow Saturday afternoon and
evening. It looks marginally cold enough for west or northwest flow
lake effect snow showers Friday night into Saturday morning and
again on Sunday. The forecast for early next week is extremely
challenging and could end up being rather messy. The general summary
is for weak waves of low pressure to move up from our southwest into
northern Michigan Monday into Tuesday. The GFS tries to hold warm
air at bay yielding a snow or a rain/snow mix while the ECMWF surges
warm air northward yielding a couple of days of mainly rain. For now
have raised temperatures by several degrees and introduced some rain
into the forecast. It`s still a ways out there so there is plenty of
time for the models to hopefully sort this one out.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 627 AM EST Wed Feb 14 2018

Mainly VFR, but MVFR cigs arrive late tonight.

Low pressure in south central Canada will move toward Lake
Superior by late tonight. Warmer air will temporarily move into
the region ahead of the low today and tonight. This air will
initially be on the dry side. Some MVFR stratocu is flirting in
the PLN vicinity this morning, but that won`t last too long.
Better low-level moisture moves north into the region tonight. An
MVFR stratus deck is currently forecast, would not rule out the
potential for IFR cigs overnight.

Sw winds will be gusty at times.




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