Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 240527
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1227 AM EST WED DEC 24 2014

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 PM EST TUE DEC 23 2014

...CALM BEFORE THE CHRISTMAS EVE MESS...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: AREAS OF FOG REDUCING VISIBILITIES
BELOW ONE-HALF MILE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND NORTH
CENTRAL/NORTHEAST LOWER.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: 20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A FILLING
1004MB OCCLUDED LOW OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN...ATTENDANT OCCLUDED
FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN AND INTO
WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN.  CLEARING TO THE WEST OF THE OCCLUDED LOW
TRIED TO MAKE A RUN INTO NORTHWEST LOWER EARLIER TODAY...BUT GOT CUT
OFF BY MORE CLOUDS ROTATING IN FROM WISCONSIN.  BUT CLOUD CEILINGS
HAVE CLIMBED AT FKS/MBL/LDM BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH LOW CLOUDS/FOG
TO THE EAST AND STILL SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION (RAIN/MIXED RAIN-
SNOW) FROM THE STRAITS NORTHWARD.

WISCONSIN SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO FADE AWAY AS CYCLOGENESIS
TAKES PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WITH RESULTANT
SURFACE LOW LIFTING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT.  THIS IS THE
SYSTEM THAT HAS BEEN CAUSING MUCH FORECASTER GRIEF OVER THE LAST
SEVERAL DAYS...AND SUCH HEADACHES WILL CONTINUE RIGHT UP UNTIL THE
INITIAL PRECIPITATION ARRIVES LATER TOMORROW.  BUT MORE ON THAT
BELOW...

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: ONLY CONCERN IN THE NEAR TERM IS LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG.

TONIGHT: PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ABOUNDS TONIGHT ACROSS
NORTHERN MICHIGAN...THOUGH CURRENT POSITION OF OCCLUDED BOUNDARY
WILL RESULT IN A GRADIENT OF VISIBILITIES FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
NORTHERN MICHIGAN.  EXPECT LITTLE FOG WEST OF THE US-131 CORRIDOR
THIS EVENING...WHILE EAST OF WHAT REMAINS OF THE OCCLUDED BOUNDARY
FOG EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD AND DENSE IN SPOTS.  SOME LINGERING
DRIZZLE ISSUES ACROSS EASTERN UPPER...ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING.  DO
EXPECT THAT FOG WILL REDEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST LOWER
THAT DON`T SEE MUCH THIS EVENING.  EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO MOVE
LITTLE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM EST TUE DEC 23 2014

MODELS ARE FINALLY COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF A
DEEPENING STORM SYSTEM MOVING NORTHWARD OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THIS SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION ON CHRISTMAS EVE. WILL GO WITH
THE MODEL CONSENSUS TRACK WHICH BRINGS THE SURFACE LOW OVER OR JUST
TO THE WEST OF THE THUMB (EASTERN SAGINAW BAY) THEN ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL LAKE HURON. THIS SOLUTION DISCOUNTS THE GFS AND A MAJORITY
OF ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WHICH CONTINUE TO TRACK IT ACROSS NORTHEAST
LOWER (NEAR ALPENA). HOWEVER...A TRACK AS LITTLE AS 20 TO 30 MILES
FARTHER EAST OR WEST WILL HAVE SUBTLE IMPACTS ON THE THERMAL PROFILE
WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY DETERMINE THE FORM OF PRECIPITATION. THE MAIN
SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS CONTINUE TO REVOLVE AROUND THE DETAILS
OF THIS STORM SYSTEM AND WHETHER OR NOT TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM
WATCH.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS STATED ABOVE THE GULF STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. THERE IS ENOUGH AGREEMENT IN MODEL
SOLUTIONS TO BELIEVE THAT THE PRIMARY FORM OF PRECIPITATION WILL
FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHWEST LOWER AND ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER (ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN). LOOKING AT
MODEL SOUNDINGS...PRECIPITATION MAY COME IN AS ALL SNOW LATER IN THE
MORNING IN THESE AREAS (ALTHOUGH WILL ALLOW FOR RAIN OR SNOW) AND
CONTINUE INTO EARLY CHRISTMAS MORNING. IT WILL LIKELY BE A HEAVY WET
SNOW WHICH COULD LEAD TO TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. THEREFORE...HAVE
ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH FROM NOON UNTIL 7 AM FOR THE POTENTIAL
FOR 6 OR MORE INCHES OF ACCUMULATIONS (NOT TOTALLY OUT OF THE
QUESTION THAT A FEW SPOTS COULD SEE AROUND 10 INCHES OR SO).
MEANWHILE ACROSS NORTHEAST LOWER...RAIN IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN THE
MORNING WITH A GRADUAL MIX WITH SNOW LATER IN THE DAY AND A CHANGE
OVER TO ALL SNOW IN THE EVENING. ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO A FEW INCHES
LOOK POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS SO ROADS COULD BECOME SLIPPERY THERE AS
WELL. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE 30S WITH LOWS BETWEEN 30 AND 35 OR
SO.

CHRISTMAS DAY INTO FRIDAY...A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT DURING THIS
TIME WITH WEAK SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW PERHAPS BRINGING
LOW END CHANCES FOR A FEW SNOW SHOWERS (MAINLY NORTH)...BUT MORE
LIKELY JUST KEEPING THE AREA MOSTLY CLOUDY. MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S AND LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM EST TUE DEC 23 2014

PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN ACTIVE WITH SOME WEAKER DISTURBANCES COMING
THROUGH THE REGION BEHIND THE LARGER CHRISTMAS TIME SYSTEM. CHANCES
FOR SNOW THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD FROM THESE
DISTURBANCES...WITH A WEAKENING LOW FROM THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES OVER
THE WEEKEND...A CLIPPER SYSTEM COMING THROUGH EARLY IN THE WEEK AND
CHANCES FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOWS BEHIND THAT. FRIDAY EVENING INTO
SATURDAY WILL SEE RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW FOR MOST OF NORTHERN LOWER
AS ABOVE FREEZING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES COOL BELOW FREEZING. WHILE
SATURDAY HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID 30S...THE REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE LOW 20S. OVERNIGHT LOWS ON
FRIDAY WILL ALSO BE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE LOW 30S...THAT TOO WILL
CHANGE AS WE GET BACK TO MORE NORMAL LOWS IN THE TEENS FOR THE REST
OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1224 AM EST WED DEC 24 2014

A VERY CHALLENGING FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT THE BASIC
GIST IS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF CLEARING LEADING TO FOG DEVELOPMENT
IN MANY AREAS THROUGH SUNRISE. CONDITIONS WILL LOCALLY BE VLIFR IN
SOME DENSE FOG...ESPECIALLY AROUND APN/PLN AND PERHAPS MBL AS
WINDS GO LIGHT. LIGHT RAIN WILL SPREAD IN THROUGH THE
MORNING...WITH CEILINGS GRADUALLY LOWERING BACK TO MVFR LEVELS AS
FOG DISSIPATES...WITH RAIN SLOWLY CHANGING OVER TO SNOW INTO THE
EVENING HOURS AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES. THAT TIMING OF THAT
CHANGEOVER IS LOW CONFIDENCE...AND THE POSSIBILITY DOES EXIST FOR
A FEW HOUR PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING SNOW...ESPECIALLY AROUND PLN AND
MAYBE TVC. APN/MBL LOOK JUST TOO WARM DOWN LOW FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATION...BUT THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH THROUGH THE
DAY. CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST TODAY UNDER 10
KNOTS...BUT INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE AS LOW PRESSURE RAPIDLY STRENGTHENS OVER
ONTARIO.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM NOON EST TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
     FOR MIZ008-015>023-025>028-031>033.

LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...SULLIVAN
LONG TERM...ALM
AVIATION...LAWRENCE



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