Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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510
FXUS63 KAPX 200451
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1151 PM EST Sun Nov 19 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 951 PM EST Sun Nov 19 2017

Not much left of lake effect in northern lower, though some weak mid-
level returns (at and above 6k ft) are developing in nw lower MI.
A single wnw band continues to poke into eastern upper MI, evident
on MQT/Montreal River radars, and occasionally in surface obs in
the twin Saults. Flow up there will not back any further until
almost 12Z, so potential for lake effect near/north of M-28 will
last thru the night. But this activity is weaker than it has been,
thanks to a the building surface ridge to our sw, and
reinvigoration is not expected. Will go ahead and cancel the
advisory up that way.

Otherwise, will be reducing pops in northern lower MI. Clouds
remain extensive, with a few breaks only in the Drummond Isl area.
Have been bumping up cloud cover, enough so that min temps could
also be adjusted upward slightly in spots.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 325 PM EST Sun Nov 19 2017

...Lake effect snow showers through tonight...

High Impact Weather Potential...Some heavier lake effect snow
showers will impact the snowbelts through tonight.

Pattern Synopsis...Afternoon satellite analysis reveals larger
scale troughing from the northern Plains through the Great Lakes
into New England...anchored by closed upper level low pressure
over north-central Canada. Several smaller scale short waves are
seen rotating through the main upper trough. Primary lead wave is
exiting eastbound through Lake Huron...but a secondary subtle wave
is dropping southeastward into the the far northwest Great Lakes
region.

At the surface...low amplitude cyclonic flow lingers across the
western Great Lakes with lake aggregate troughing in the usual
location from eastern Lake Superior down into northern Lake Huron.
But surface high pressure is nosing into the region from the
west.

Finally...Weakening lake effect snow showers persist at this
hour across northern lower Michigan...with a little beefier lake
snows sliding through Chippewa county at this hour.

Primary Forecast Concerns...disposition of ongoing winter weather
headlines.

With the departure of the primary lead short wave and intervention
of surface ridging/drier air...ongoing lake snow showers will
continue to diminish heading into the evening hours while low
level mean flow backs a bit more westerly. Heavier snow showers
may persist off Lake Superior into parts of Chippewa county for a
bit longer...given the longer fetch and colder temps aloft up
that way. Am concerned that we see another brief uptick in lake
effect snow showers later this evening into the overnight as
the secondary subtle short wave slips through the northern Great
Lakes. But given the rather disorganized nature of the lake
convection at this point and minor accumulations anticipated
overnight...plan to cancel the advisory for northern lower
Michigan. I may leave the advisory alone for Chippewa county for
now...since some of the heavier snow showers are just getting into
the more populated part of the county. Evening shift can cancel
early if need be.

Much improved conditions anticipated Monday as warmer air at the
surface and aloft surges back into the region. Any lingering lake
effect will end and we should see at least some sunshine
particularly across lower Michigan.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Monday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 325 PM EST Sun Nov 19 2017

...Another shot of cold air and lake effect...

The mild air won`t be sticking around much longer as another cold
front is set to move through northern Michigan Tuesday morning. So
after a mild night with mainly above freezing temperatures Monday
night, temperatures will likely fall during the day Tuesday. So
expect rain showers ahead of the front early Tuesday followed by a
quick round of lake effect snow later Tuesday into Tuesday night.
Activity should come to an end Wednesday as upper level heights
rebound. It`s still a little early to determine exact snowfall
accumulations for Tue/Tue night but the snow belts of eastern upper
and northwest lower could see between a couple and a few inches. Add
in the likely gusty northwest winds and headlines are possible in
some areas.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 325 PM EST Sun Nov 19 2017

...Continued changeable...

More of the same really with alternating shots of mild and cold air
continuing to make for very changeable weather. This is in response
to continued ridging in the West and disturbances moving through the
zonal to occasional troughiness in the East. Perhaps a few snow
showers on Thanksgiving Day as a short wave moves through the flow.
Warm advection from low pressure moving by to the north should bring
mainly liquid precipitation late Friday into early Saturday (though
it could start as snow or a mix of rain/snow). Yet another shot of
cold air will likely bring more lake effect snow to round out next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1151 PM EST Sun Nov 19 2017

Mostly VFR. LLWS Monday night.

Lake effect snow showers have been dwindling this evening, and
associated cloud cover is also starting to dwindle, as high
pressure tries to build into the southern Great Lakes. Cigs have
been improving in most places, though APN is still hanging onto an
MVFR cig. Expect mainly VFR conditions for tonight into Monday,
as clouds will lift further on Monday.

West winds will slowly diminish tonight. A south breeze will
become a touch gusty by Monday afternoon. Sw winds will increase
considerably just off the surface for Monday night, and have
added LLWS at PLN/TVC/MBL.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 325 PM EST Sun Nov 19 2017

Gustier winds will linger into tonight with small craft advisories
needed on all nearshore waters. Winds/waves will diminish for a
time later tonight and into Monday...and we may be able to have a
period of headline free conditions. However...stronger SW winds
develop later Monday through Monday night...veering westerly on
Tuesday...and marine headlines will be needed once again. At this
point...appears gusts will remain below gale force within the
nearshore waters.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 5 AM EST Monday for LHZ345>349.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 5 AM EST Monday for LMZ323-341-342-
     344>346.
     GALE WARNING from 6 PM Monday to 11 AM EST Tuesday for LMZ323-
     341-342-344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 5 AM EST Monday for LSZ321-322.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JZ
NEAR TERM...BA
SHORT TERM...AS
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...BA



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