Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 191700

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
100 PM EDT Wed Oct 19 2016

Issued at 1025 AM EDT Wed Oct 19 2016

Narrow ridge of high pressure extends from Lower Michigan thru
Illinois and Northern Missouri late this morning in the wake of
the departing cold front now well east of our CWA. A secondary
cold front is dropping SE out of Central Canada into Upper
Michigan...featuring even cooler air behind it along with a
mainly MVFR cloud shield. Meanwhile...low pressure is developing
over the Southern Plains and will begin to lift NE toward the Ohio
Valley today. The northern stream secondary cold front will drop
into Michigan this afternoon as the southern stream low lifts into
Southern Missouri. Low clouds will increase this afternoon from NW
to SE as the cold front drops into Michigan...while mid/upper
level clouds will begin to increase from SE to NW well in advance
of developing low pressure to our SW. Enough dry air will remain
in place at mid levels to preclude any precip development...and
sufficiently cold air for the development of lake effect precip
will remain NW of our area. Thus...this afternoon will be dry with
increasing clouds. High temps will warm into the low to mid 60s.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 356 AM EDT Wed Oct 19 2016

...Brief period of quiet weather...

Pattern overview: A progressive flow pattern remains in place
across the CONUS, with broad troughiness through the Rockies into
the plains, upper level high pressure anchored across the SE
states and a tight thermal gradient/strong upper jet streak
cutting across the middle of the CONUS. Another strong short wave
is moving through Colorado into the front range this morning and
will eventually carve out a deeper trough through eastern CONUS at
the end of the week and heading into the weekend, dragging much
cooler air into the Great Lakes.

Here at home, a much quieter and cooler night across the western
lakes region with surface ridging and dry air nosing from the
plains into the Great Lakes. Broad low pressure/extensive cloud
cover and some light precip is still poised across Ontario with a
secondary cold front arching from eastern Ontario through the
western U.P. and into Minnesota. Some lingering STCU across the
tip of the mitt into eastern upper Michigan earlier in the night.
Also also some patchy stratus and fog out there as well.

Today: Quiet weather overall with just some cloud concerns.
Patchy stratus/fog continue to show up on area obs and satellite
fog product early this morning, and will linger through mid
morning. Will adjust the forecast accordingly. Otherwise, a fair
amount of sunshine anticipated across the north woods this
morning and into the afternoon. Then, upstream short wave will
make some progress into the central plains today while downstream
upper jet core settles into the northern lakes. Satellite trends
and model RH forecasts suggest we will begin to see some thickening
mid an high cloud cover stretch from the midwest into the lower
lakes/Ohio Valley region as we go through the afternoon. Meanwhile
to the north, aforementioned secondary cold front will sag through
the U.P. with lower cloud cover making inroads into eastern upper
Michigan later in the afternoon. Call it becoming partly cloudy
south to mostly cloudy in the north. Temperatures still mild by
mid October standards, lower to middle 60s.

Tonight: Short wave trough continues to work through the central
plains with downstream surface cyclogenesis ramping up from the
lower Mississippi River Valley into the Ohio Valley, and some
precip spreading into southern lower Michigan overnight. To the
north, secondary cold front will continue to sag through northern
lower Michigan with low stratus and some much cooler air
overspreading northern Michigan overnight. Enough cool air (H8
temps falling to -2C by morning) to at least think about lake
effect shower possibilities in eastern upper. Certainly some
negatives such as drier air aloft and some lower inversion
heights. But will add some slight chance pops for rain showers
late overnight across Chippewa county. Otherwise, becoming cloudy
everywhere overnight with temps dipping to the upper 30s to lower

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 356 AM EDT Wed Oct 19 2016

High Impact Weather: None, Just rain showers from Lake effect and
cooler temperatures before warming again.

(10/20-21)Thursday and Friday...Was going to initially leave the
morning on Thursday dry as the model soundings are showing a fairly
shallow amount of moisture on the soundings. However, reconsidered
after looking a the Hi-Res models and the Instability, and thinking
that the moisture over the lake should be deeper. So have slight
chance pops in the areas downwind of Lakes Superior and Michigan
that continue to expand as the moisture deepens in the 850-700 mb
layer and lower. The GFS eventually begins to put precipitation into
the areas down wind of the lakes as well as we get into Friday and
Friday night. The 500 mb trough moves over the region on Friday with
the LE Rain ongoing, however, will expect that late in the afternoon
and into the evening the rain will begin to end as the 500 mb trough
axis moves east, the moisture in the 850-700 mb layer dries,  and
the 850 mb ridge axis begins to push through the Upper Great Lakes.

Extended (Saturday through Tuesday)...As we head into the weekend
the pattern goes back to the 500 mb heights building and we get into
500 mb zonal/flat ridge pattern with occasional shortwave troughs
pushing through to bring rain into the forecast area on Monday. This
puts us back into the above normal temperatures, and near normal
precipitation through the end of the 7 day period. This pattern looks
to continue out beyond the 7 days as well.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 100 PM EDT Wed Oct 19 2016

VFR conditions featuring mid/high cloudiness can be expected at
all Northern Lower Michigan TAF sites this afternoon and into this
evening. Low (mainly MVFR) clouds will increase from NW to SE
tonight and will hold over the region thru Thursday as a secondary
cold front sweeps thru the region. There is a slight chance for a
few light lake effect rain showers around TVC on Thursday thanks
to colder northerly flow establishing behind the cold front.
However...the chances are too small to include in the TAF at this
time. W/SW winds AOB 10 kts this afternoon will become light/calm
tonight...and will then shift to the north on Thursday at around
10 kts with a few higher gusts possible.


Issued at 356 AM EDT Wed Oct 19 2016

Overall light westerly winds and waves will be found across the
region today. Winds will turn northerly tonight and persist
through Thursday as a secondary cold front slips down through the
region. Winds and waves will remain below any marine headline
criteria through Thursday.




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