Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 140217

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1017 PM EDT Wed Sep 13 2017

Issued at 1017 PM EDT Wed Sep 13 2017

Only cosmetic changes to the forecast tonight. Weakening surface
high pressure remains across the state. Surface low pressure
(remnants of Irma) continues to slowly move up through the
Tennessee/Ohio Valley this evening with a fair amount of rainfall
ongoing across Ohio and just edging up into far southern lower
Michigan. That activity will remain mostly to the south...although
thicker mid and high cloud cover will inch up into the far reaches
of the CWA through Thursday.

Otherwise...mainly clear skies/light winds anticipated through
tonight with some fog as temps once again dip into the middle 40s
to middle 50s.


.NEAR TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 335 PM EDT Wed Sep 13 2017

High impact weather potential: None.

Pattern synopsis and forecast:

More of the same. Quiet weather across the region as nrn Michigan
remains underneath shallow mid level ridging with a sfc ridge axis
draped across the region. Still battling some marine fog in far nrn
Lake Michigan, which is impacting coastal areas of western mackinac
county. There`s also additional high level clouds from Irma working
in across the SE CWA. Otherwise, pretty sunny out there with
temperatures in most all areas in the 70s now.

Would expect the marine stratus and fog to burn off through the
remainder of the afternoon, with only the continuation of higher
level cloud across the SE CWA through the night. Clear all other
areas with another night where low lying areas see some shallow fog.
Lows tonight will be similar to last night with 30+F diurnal swings
for many. Readings in the mid and upper 40s most areas, cooler in
low lying areas, and perhaps milder in the SE CWA under Irma`s
clouds. A weak cool front might try and sag into eastern upper late
tonight, as a fast moving wave crosses Ontario. This front is not
expected to have any affect on nrn Michigan. As a matter of fact,
doubt winds will even shift, with continued southerly flow resulting
in more marine stratus and fog pushing into western portions of
Mackinac county again. Thursday, Irma loses it`s definition at the
sfc as it strolls through the Ohio river valley, taking the high
clouds along for the ride. Meanwhile, low pressure develops across
the nrn plains and shoves the cold front north as a warm front. Not
much of change thermally, with more sun than clouds and temperatures
back in the upper 70s to lower 80s.


.SHORT TERM...(Thursday night through Saturday)
Issued at 335 PM EDT Wed Sep 13 2017

More spectacular weather is on tap to end the work week on into the
first half of the weekend as northern Michigan is sandwiched between
remnant tropical moisture from Irma departing to the east and a
digging trough across the Intermountain west. This leaves ridging
aloft/weak surface high pressure over our neck of the woods. So
expect mostly clear skies and unseasonably warm conditions to
continue. Highs ranging from the upper 70s to the middle 80s and
lows in the 50s to around 60. The warmest day looks like Saturday
with decent mixing and warmer air aloft coming in and highs should
fall just few degrees short of record highs which are in the upper
80s to around 90.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 335 PM EDT Wed Sep 13 2017

The next chance of rain returns with the arrival of a low pressure
system skirting the northern Great Lakes region. WAA precip will
begin late Saturday night/early Sunday morning with chances
remaining through at least Monday morning with the cold frontal
passage associated with the aforementioned storm system. High
pressure and dry air quickly move in behind the departing
system...brining decreased cloudiness, an end to rain chances, and
cooler temperatures by Monday afternoon....with highs in the upper
60s to mid 70s through Wednesday. Lows will be in the upper 50s to
low 60s Saturday night and then dip into the upper 40s to low 50s
for Sunday through Tuesday nights. Long range guidance varies
greatly at the end of the extended period...ranging from high
pressure and dry weather to a storm system over the Northern Great
Plains impacting the forecast area. Hence...very low confidence and
took what the blend gave us for now with just low chance pops for


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 854 PM EDT Wed Sep 13 2017

Weakening high pressure across the region will maintain overall
VFR conditions for northern Michigan through Thursday...although
we will see some thicker mid and high cloud cover passing by to
the south (remnants of Irma). In addition...some fog possibilities
again tonight with light winds/generally clear skies.


Issued at 335 PM EDT Wed Sep 13 2017

Relative high pressure remains overhead with light winds and lake
breezes this afternoon. Southerly winds will start to kick up a
little later tonight into this weekend as low pressure develops in
the nrn plains. Maybe some low end advisories over this time and
especially this weekend, despite neutral stability over the Great
Lakes. First chance for rain arrives Sunday.




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