Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 181039

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
639 AM EDT Sun Jun 18 2017

.NEAR TERM...(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 355 AM EDT Sun Jun 18 2017

High impact weather potential: Maybe a few non-severe storms today.

Pattern synopsis and forecast:

Upper level troughing from Ontario into the far western Great Lakes
was seen early this morning, with one well defined shortwave at it`s
base, rotating into srn Wisconsin. Forcing was maximized across the
nrn portion of Wisconsin, where a large area of steady showers was
ongoing within a region of DPVA and upper level divergence. Another
area of forcing, was decent moisture transport in low to mid level
warm advection regime, associated with a 30-40kt LLJ now shoved
south of areas near Saginaw Bay. Rainfall was pretty heavy there for
awhile, as it was also with nearly stationary rains in a narrow
corridor stretching from Kalkaska county through Presque Isle and
nrn Alpena counties. Rainfall amounts were over an inch in both
areas. A very mild night with current temperatures still in the 60s
most everywhere.

The aforementioned shortwave and it`s fairly strong DPVA rounding
the base of the upper troughing will lift up and across nrn Michigan
through the morning, with an expected period of showers and maybe a
non-severe storm or two. Then, the system cold front sweeps across
the region, drawing in cooler air. Forcing becomes much weaker for
the afternoon, with deeper low to mid level moisture wraps into the
region, especially eastern upper Michigan. Cyclonic low level flow
and potential weak DPVA from additional minor vorticity and daytime
heating is likely to lead to more isolated to scattered showers for
the afternoon. With the loss of that daytime warming, showers are
expected to wane into the evening, and pretty much end overnight.

High temperatures today mainly in the 70s, with downsloping areas in
developing gusty westerlies behind the front resulting in low 80s in
NE lower near the coastline. Lows tonight in a less humid air mass
will be in the low to mid 50s most areas.


.SHORT TERM...(Monday through Tuesday)
Issued at 350 AM EDT Sun Jun 18 2017

...Showery and cooler...

High impact weather potential...None expected.

The upper level trough will continue to be centered across east
central Canada southward into the western Great Lakes region. Upper
level disturbances rotating through this trough in combination with
daytime heating derived instability will continue to result in
numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms (especially during the
afternoons when can generate a few hundred J/KG of cape).
Temperatures will be cooler with highs in the middle 60s to lower

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Saturday)
Issued at 350 AM EDT Sun Jun 18 2017

The trough slowly fills while lifting northeast away from the
region. This will result in a nearly zonal flow with periodic pieces
of Pacific energy moving through this flow beginning Wednesday night
and continuing into the beginning of next weekend. Meanwhile,
another trough to our west will start to carve its way southeast by
the end of the period. Therefore, after an expected precipitation
free day Wednesday, there will be more chances for showers and
perhaps thunderstorms at various times for the rest of the forecast.
Temperatures will warm to near seasonable levels.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 633 AM EDT Sun Jun 18 2017

Low pressure will lift into Ontario and Quebec by tonight, with
one decent wave of showers and a possible storm rolling through
this morning. CIGS have already lowered to MVFR/IFR and will
continue to do so over this time, before improvement is seen with
slow diurnal warming. The precipitation coverage will become more
scattered this afternoon, then isolated this evening, with
decreasing chances of a thunderstorm. Deeper low to mid level
moisture arrives overnight during this time with CIGS likely
falling back into MVFR. Light/variable winds with the low pressure
will gradually become westerly, with gusty conditions developing
in the late morning to afternoon.


Issued at 633 AM EDT Sun Jun 18 2017

Low pressure lifts into Ontario and Quebec through the day while
also dragging a cold front through the region. The gradient will be
tight enough for gusty westerlies to develop through the afternoon
and evening. A period of advisory level gusts are anticipated over
all nearshore zones. Winds then become lighter, with no anticipated
issues through a good chunk of the work week.

After a solid period of showers and a few storms this morning,
precipitation chances will remain across the region, but will be
much lower than the last couple of days.



LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 11 AM this morning to 6 AM EDT Monday
     for LHZ345>349.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 11 AM this morning to 6 AM EDT Monday
     for LMZ323-341-342-344.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this
     evening for LMZ345-346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 11 AM this morning to 6 AM EDT Monday
     for LSZ321-322.


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