Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FXUS63 KAPX 130834
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
434 AM EDT SUN APR 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 411 AM EDT SUN APR 13 2014

A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS SLOWLY LIFTING INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE WIDESPREAD RAIN...SOME POSSIBLY
HEAVY...ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN THROUGH TONIGHT.

THE STORM SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY EXIT EAST OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT.
COLDER AIR FILTERING INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS
EXITING SYSTEM...WILL CHANGE RAIN TO SNOW OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN
MONDAY WHICH IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 411 AM EDT SUN APR 13 2014

...HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING ISSUES WITH THOUGHTS OF CHANGING TO SNOW
IN PLACES VERY LATE TONIGHT...

IMPACTS: INCREASED FLOODING THREAT...ESPECIALLY LOWLAND AREAS NEAR
RIVERS AND STREAMS IN NRN LOWER...AND ALONG THE M-55 CORRIDOR. THE
PRIMARY THREAT ARE FOR THE MANISTEE AND RIFLE RIVER BASINS.

CONFIDENCE: HIGH WITH RAIN OCCURRENCE...ESPECIALLY NRN LOWER. LOW TO
AVERAGE WITH THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL EXTENDING FROM MANISTEE
TO OSSINEKE. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW ACROSS THE NW
CWA LATE TONIGHT.

CURRENT WEATHER AND SYNOPTIC PATTERN/EVOLUTION:

UPPER FLOW CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY SLOWLY THIS MORNING WITH SRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE LIFTING INTO THE PLAINS...WHILE NRN STREAM ENERGY IS
DIGGING SOUTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA. A MAIN SFC LOW PRESSURE
HAS BEEN DEVELOPING IN THE HEART OF THE COUNTRY...WITH A COUPLE OF
WEAK CIRCULATIONS ON A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS STRETCHED NE THROUGH
LOWER MICHIGAN. A STRONG LLJ (50-60KTS) HAS BEEN SLOWLY VEERING WITH
TIME...BUT STILL USHERING/FEEDING 1.00"/1.50" PWAT AIR ALONG THE
BOUNDARY AND RESULTING IN A NICE TRAINING ECHO SCENARIO WITH AREAS
JUST SOUTH OF US IN CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN...SEEING COPIOUS AMOUNTS
OF RAINFALL. ONE OF THE WEAKER SFC LOW AND MID LEVEL JET STREAK IS
NOW LIFTING THROUGH NW IL WITH RENEWED CONVECTION CROSSING QUICKLY
THROUGH NE ILLINOIS. THE STRATIFORM RAIN SHIELD IS TRYING TO DEVELOP
NORTHWARD...BUT ALL IN ALL...THINGS ARE QUIET AFTER RECEIVING 1-1.5"
OF RAINFALL IN THE SW CWA YESTERDAY EVENING.

THIS WEAKER SFC LOW WILL WANE WHILE ALSO TRACKING ACROSS THE FRONTAL
ZONE TODAY...THE PLACEMENT OF THE SFC FRONT IS DIFFICULT DUE TO
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION...BUT THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO LIFT MORE SW TO NE WITH TIME....KEEPING COLDER AIR
NORTHWEST...AND THE POTENTIAL TO GET QUITE WARM IN THE SE
CWA...ESPECIALLY NEARER SAG BAY. FORCING WILL BE PROVIDED BY A MID
LEVEL JET STREAK/FRONTAL CONVERGENCE...BUT OVERALL PRECIPITATION/QPF
IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT WITH DATA SHOWING RATHER WEAK MOISTURE
ADV/CONVERGENCE. THE MAIN SHOW ARRIVES TONIGHT...WITH THE MAIN SRN
STREAM WAVE/NRN STREAM DIGGING WAVE PUSHING INTO NRN MICHIGAN WITH
THE NEXT SFC LOW PRESSURE LIFTING ACROSS NRN LOWER/NE LOWER. THERE
IS TOTAL AGREEMENT ON PLACEMENT OF OVERALL -DIVQ ALIGNING FROM
MANISTEE THROUGH ROGERS CITY/ALPENA AREA TONIGHT...WITH A HIGH
LIKELIHOOD OF 1 OR 2 BANDS OF FGEN. EXACTLY WHERE IS TOO DIFFICULT
TO DISCERN RIGHT NOW. WE CONTINUE TO SEE COPIOUS MOISTURE FORCED
INTO OUR NECK OF THE WOODS...ALONG/NORTH OF THE FRONTAL ZONE WITH
RENEWED LLJ OF 50-60KTS. THE RAINFALL SHOULD BE HEAVIEST THIS
EVENING AND JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT IN BEST CONVERGENCE. WHILE THERE IS
NO REAL GOOD INSTABILITY SEEN...OVERALL FORCING WOULD LIKELY RESULT
IN AT LEAST A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THIS IS THE LEAST OF THE
CONCERNS...AS SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. CLOUDS RAIN KEEPING A
MORE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER...THUNDER LIKELY MORE GENERATED IN
INSTABILITY ALOFT. THE SFC LOW EXITS MUCH MORE SLOWLY LATE TONIGHT
WITH YET ANOTHER WEAKER LOW BEHIND IT POSSIBLY FOLLOWING. THIS
PREVENTS THE LOWER LEVEL COLDER AIR FROM SEEPING INTO THE NW CWA
UNTIL REAL LATE...TOWARD DAYBREAK...THUS SLOWING ANY CHANGEOVER TO
SNOW.

GENERAL WEATHER EXPECTATIONS:

CLOUDS THE ENTIRE TIME...POSSIBLY A FEW BREAKS IN THE SE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON. SOME LIGHT RAIN WILL CROSS AREAS GENERALLY ALONG M-32
SOUTH THIS MORNING...BUT MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION MAYBE BE IN THE
FORM OF PERIODS OF DRIZZLE AS WELL. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE FURTHER
NORTH INTO EASTERN UPPER...WHERE ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL WILL BE
DIFFICULT TO COME BY TODAY. ALL-IN-ALL...RAIN...MAINLY LIGHT WITH
SOME EARLY FOG CAN BE EXPECTED. THEN...LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
WE WILL START TO SEE HEAVIER...MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN OVERSPREAD MOST
ALL OF NRN MICHIGAN WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINS FROM FRANKFORT/MANISTEE
THROUGH ROGERS CITY/ALPENA (MAYBE JUST SOUTH OF THERE). RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE ABLE TO RANGE FROM 1-3 INCHES...AND WHEN COMPOUNDED
WITH THE 0.75" TO 1.5" RAINS WE GOT ALONG THE M-55 CORRIDOR LAST
NIGHT...AND ANY REMAINING SNOWMELT...FLOODING DEFINITELY REMAINS AN
ISSUE. THE FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN INTACT. JUST DO NOT QUITE HAVE
THE CONFIDENCE NEEDED JUST YET TO FIRE OFF ANY WARNINGS...BUT IF
THAT DECISION WAS MADE...THE FOCUS WOULD INCLUDE THE ENTIRE M-55
CORRIDOR...ESPECIALLY WEST OF HOUGHTON LAKE. RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER
TO SNOW IN FAR WESTERN CHIP/MACK COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT/TOWARD
DAYBREAK....BUT CUT SNOW AMOUNTS DOWN TO LESS THAN AN INCH THERE.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM EDT SUN APR 13 2014

...TURNING MUCH COLDER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN LIKELY
CHANGING OVER TO A LITTLE SNOW...

THE LAST PIECES OF SOUTHERN JET STREAM ENERGY MOVING NORTHEASTWARD
ALONG THE VERY TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE...WILL INTERACT WITH COLDER AIR
ADVECTING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LIKELY BRINGING A LITTLE SNOW MONDAY
INTO PERHAPS MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A COUPLE OF DAYS
OF WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO END THE WORK WEEK. THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVE
AROUND THE TIMING OF ANY CHANGEOVER TO SNOW MONDAY AND POPS MONDAY
NIGHT.

MONDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE COLDER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM HAVING A
HARD TIME CATCHING UP TO THE DEPARTING MOISTURE. THIS WILL MAKE IT
DIFFICULT TO RESULT IN ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS (WHICH IS
A RELIEF TO MOST OF US). AT THIS POINT THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO ONLY
RESULTS IN PERHAPS ANOTHER INCH OR SO OF SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER...AN INCH OR LESS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
NORTHWEST LOWER AND LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION ELSEWHERE.
TEMPERATURES NEARLY STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING FROM THE MIDDLE 30S TO
LOWER 40S DUE TO STEADY COLD ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY.

MONDAY NIGHT...MODELS DIFFER ON WHETHER OR NOT THERE WILL BE ONE
LAST PIECE OF ENERGY MOVING BY TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION.
CONSENSUS SAYS ANY WAVE WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK AND PASS BY WELL TO OUR
EAST...WHILE THE OUTLYING NAM HAS ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CLOSE
ENOUGH TO BRING A ROUND OF SNOW TO THE AREA. WILL HEDGE TOWARD
CONSENSUS THEREBY KEEPING POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY. ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT DOES FALL WOULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW AS THERE
IS SUFFICIENT COLD AIR IN PLACE BY THEN (850 MB TEMPERATURES IN THE
-10 TO -15 C RANGE). LOWS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

TUESDAY....UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR ENCOMPASSES THE REGION AS WE GET A
QUICK SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR (850 MB TEMPS RANGE FROM -14 TO 18 C ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA). A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW COULD
PRODUCE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS BUT THE AIRMASS IS RATHER DRY (MEAN
1000-500 MB RH ONLY ABOUT 40 PERCENT) SO HAVE TRENDED POPS DOWNWARD
(TO LOW OR SLIGHT CHANCE). HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 20S TO MIDDLE 30S.

TUESDAY NIGHT...COLD WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO AROUND 10 ABOVE NORTH AND THE TEENS
ELSEWHERE. A FEW RECORD LOWS WILL BE CHALLENGED (ESPECIALLY AT
GAYLORD AND ALPENA).

WEDNESDAY...PERHAPS SOME WARM ADVECTION DRIVEN SNOW SHOWERS (MAINLY
NORTHERN ZONES) BUT WILL ONLY GO WITH LOW CHANCE POPS. HIGHS IN THE
MIDDLE 30S TO LOWER 40S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE MIDDLE 20S TO
LOWER 30S.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...EXTENDED MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME
DECIPHERING THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. A SLIM MAJORITY OF MODELS
STRING OUT MOISTURE FROM A WEAKENING TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION.
NATIONAL GUIDANCE HAS LOW OR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DURING THIS ENTIRE
TIME PERIOD. THOUGH I FIND IT HARD TO BELIEVE THAT THIS LITTLE
SYSTEM WILL STALL OUT FOR THIS LONG...WILL HAVE TO GIVE THE MODELS
TIME TO SORT THIS OUT BEFORE BEING ABLE TO ADD MUCH VALUE TO THE
FORECAST. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN A FEW DEGREES
BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS FOR THE DATE. HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
LOWER 40S NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S SOUTHEAST. LOWS MAINLY IN THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1155 PM EDT SAT APR 12 2014

WIDE RANGING CONDITIONS...BUT MVFR TO IFR MOST COMMON.

STALLING WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO HOVER ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
LOWER MI...UNTIL STRONG LOW PRESSURE LIFTS INTO LOWER MI SUNDAY
EVENING. MBL HAS MANAGED TO ESCAPE THE LOW CIGS FOR A BIT...BUT
SHRA/TSRA WILL RETURN TO THAT AREA OVERNIGHT. MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA...SEE TAFS FOR
DETAILS. PERIODS OF SHRA/PERHAPS TSRA OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...THEN HEAVY RAIN RETURNS SUNDAY EVENING.

EASTERLY WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOMING NORTHERLY SUNDAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 411 AM EDT SUN APR 13 2014

NRN LOWER MICHIGAN RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE RUNNING 75-90% ABOVE
NORMAL...AND WITH RAINFALL LAST NIGHT ALONG THE M-55 CORRIDOR OF
0.75" TO 1.5"...THINGS ARE QUITE SOGGY WITH FULL RIVERS/STREAMS.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 1-3" IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH THOSE
HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLY/LIKELY IMPACTING SOME OF THE SAME AREAS. OF
PARTICULAR CONCERN IS THE MANISTEE RIVER BASIN...AS WELL AS THE
RIFLE RIVER BASIN. AN INCREASED FLOODING THREAT WILL BE SEEN NORTH
OF THESE BASINS TOO THOUGH...BASED ON EXPECTED QPF/RAIN AMOUNTS.
CURRENT FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT AND RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS
ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE MANISTEE AND RIFLE RIVERS. CAN DEFINITELY SEE
THE POSSIBILITY FOR MORE WIDESPREAD AREAL FLOODING IF THIS TOTAL QPF
PANS OUT. JUST TOO EARLY...WITH ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY TO NOT DO
ANYTHING WITH THAT YET.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
     FOR MIZ016>036-041-042.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AS
SHORT TERM...SMD
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...JZ
HYDROLOGY...SMD






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