Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 190157
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
957 PM EDT WED MAY 18 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 957 PM EDT Wed May 18 2016

Strong high pressure remains centered over the Great Lakes region
late this evening...serving to maintain mostly clear skies...cool
temps and light winds across Michigan. Temps have fallen into the
40s across most of our CWA and winds have become light/calm with
loss of daytime mixing. Dwpts are mainly in the upper 20s to mid
30s...and temps should have no problem cooling to match the dwpts
overnight. Will certainly keep all frost/freeze headlines in tact
for the night.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 316 PM EDT Wed May 18 2016

IMPACTS: Frost and freeze temperatures tonight.

Synoptic pattern and observations: High pressure remains overhead
with dry air solidly in place. Just a bit of cumulus out there,
which is consolidated in the inland lake breeze convergence zones.
Deep mixing has led to another very dry day with low humidities. The
winds are even light aloft in loose height pattern, as an upper
trough moves slowly east and getting replaced by some minor ridging.
There are no significant features upstream, with all precipitation
far far away.

Synoptic pattern and evolution:

The sfc high pressure will hold firm through Thursday (actually
through the weekend), keeping deep dry air in place. Winds will
remain light with afternoon lake breezes and a bit of afternoon
cumulus in the inland convergence zones. No rainfall, no change. We
could see a tough of upper level clouds again tonight across the
eastern CWA, but the main story will be low temperatures again.

The well mixed BL this afternoon, has easily dropped dew points
into the upper half of the 20s and low 30s across much of the area,
and will drop some more through late afternoon. These readings are
good proxy for where low temperatures will go at night. Thus, frost
and freezing temperatures will be achieved over enough of the region
to result in frost and freeze headlines for one more night. Just a
few degrees higher than this mornings readings. Still gonna see 35
degree diurnal swings in this dry air mass, and a rapid drop in
temperature as soon as the sun sets.

Highs Thursday will be slightly warmer, into the upper half of the
60s and lower 70s, with low humidity. Cooler lakeshores where lake
breezes reside.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Wednesday)
Issued at 316 PM EDT Wed May 18 2016

(Thursday night through Saturday)

IMPACTS: Minimal. Warm temperatures and low RH will result in
elevated fire danger for some areas.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/EXPECTED EVOLUTION: Pattern remains non-
progressive, with high pressure remaining overhead through the long
term. Cutoff low will remain over the Pacific Northwest, weakening a
bit over the weekend and becoming an open wave. Warm air advection
ahead of the cutoff low will result in height rises working their
way through the plains, with the leading edge of the ridge getting
into the region through the day Saturday and the ridge axis not
passing until early next week.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES/CONCERNS: Dewpoints. Guidance has been
struggling with dewpoints, being quite a bit on the high side
recently. Looking at model soundings and backward trajectories to
get a feel for the source airmass, may need to drop dewpoints for
Friday and Saturday but the question is just how much. With highs
nearing mid-70s again, there could be some elevated fire danger
concerns, but wind speeds will be low with high pressure overhead.

ASSOCIATED WEATHER: None. Sunny skies and warm temperatures will be
the theme through the weekend. There will be some afternoon fair
weather Cu and lake breezes pushing through. A quiet stretch of
weather going into next week.

Mayhew

Surface high pressure will dominate northern Michigan`s weather
throughout Monday, producing mostly clear skies and warm weather.
850mb temperatures will reach into the mid teens...producing
afternoon temperatures into the upper 70s and possibly even the
lower 80s Monday and again Tuesday. As said high pressure moves
southeast of the Great Lakes and a weak low pressure system over the
Northern Plains develops, return flow will usher in Gulf moisture,
increased cloudiness, chances of rain showers, and thunder for
Tuesday and Wednesday.

Highs will be in the upper 60s to mid 70s Sunday and warm into the
upper 70s and even low 80s over northern lower Monday and Tuesday,
and cool just a bit, into the mid 60s to mid 70s, behind the cold
front associated with the aforementioned low pressure system. Lows
will be mild, only dropping into the mid 40s to low 50s.

Locker

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 703 PM EDT Wed May 18 2016

VFR conditions will continue at all Nrn Lwr Michigan TAF sites
thru Thursday evening as strong high pressure and dry air thru the
column remain in control. Light/calm winds tonight will lend to
lake breeze development by midday Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 316 PM EDT Wed May 18 2016

High pressure will remain in control of northern Michigan weather
through this weekend. Winds will be light, generally under 10 kts,
with lake breezes each afternoon. The atmosphere remains dry,
resulting in just a bit of afternoon cumulus and nighttime cirrus,
with no rainfall.

&&

.APX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MI...FREEZE WARNING from 2 AM to 8 AM EDT Thursday for MIZ016>019-
     021>036.

     FROST ADVISORY from 2 AM to 8 AM EDT Thursday for MIZ020-041-042.

LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MLR
SHORT TERM...Dickson
LONG TERM...TJL/Mayhew
AVIATION...MLR
MARINE...Dickson



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