Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 232329
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
729 PM EDT MON MAR 23 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 408 PM EDT MON MAR 23 2015

ANY LINGERING SNOW OVER OUR SOUTHEASTERN CWA...ALCONA...IOSCO...AND
ARENAC COUNTIES...WILL COME TO AN END BY SUNSET...AS THE DRIER AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
OVERTAKES THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE LIGHT LAKE
EFFECT SNOWS. ELSEWHERE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AS THE CENTER OF THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
DIRECTLY OVERHEAD TONIGHT...BRINGING LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...AND
COLD TEMPERATURES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL REACH INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO INLAND AND LOW TEENS NEAR THE LAKESHORES. WOULDN`T EVEN
RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF OUR NORMAL "COLD SPOTS" TO DROP INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO BY SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 PM EDT MON MAR 23 2015

QUIET CONDITIONS COME TO AN ABRUPT END LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.  RAPIDLY
DEEPENING AND INCREASINGLY NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROF SLIDING
UP THROUGH THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL HELP TO DEVELOP A STRONG
LLJ /50KTS/ THROUGH THE SOUTHERN HALF OF MICHIGAN.  ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS QUITE DRY ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN AND CONTINUE TO BE
REINFORCED BY BACKED E/SE LOW LEVEL FLOW.  THIS WILL HELP TO SET THE
FOUNDATION FOR THE POTENTIAL FREEZING ISSUES LATER.  ATMOSPHERE
SHOULD MOISTEN RAPIDLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH DEEP FORCING AT THE NOSE
OF DEVELOPING LLJ...WITH PWATS SURGING TOWARD 0.75 INCHES BY 12Z
WEDNESDAY.  EXPECT A BAND OF PRECIPITATION TO ADVANCE RAPIDLY
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING.  RATHER TRANSIENT MID LEVEL F-GEN RESPONSE WITH STEEPENING
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES HINTS AT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME EMBEDDED
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WITHIN BROADER PRECIPITATION SHIELD.  STEADY
PRECIPITATION WILL END RAPIDLY FROM SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY
MORNING...AS DEEPER MOISTURE PIVOTS INTO EASTERN UPPER WITH
IMPRESSIVE DRY SLOT OVERSPREADING NORTHERN LOWER.  THAT DRY SLOT MAY
EVENTUALLY SWING THROUGH EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AS WELL...LIKELY
FROM MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  MAIN MID-LEVEL WAVE WILL
ARRIVE LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH SLOWLY COOLING TEMPS
ALOFT...INCREASED FORCING AND DEEPER MOISTURE...SO SHOWERS WILL
RETURN.  PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ON THE ORDER OF ONE QUARTER TO ONE
HALF INCH THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

NOW FOR THE MORE IMPORTANT QUESTION...PRECIPITATION TYPE.

NORTHERN LOWER P-TYPE:  THIS IS NOT LOOKING LIKE A BIG SNOW PRODUCER
WITH STRENGTHENING ELEVATED WARM LAYER OF +2C TO +4C IN PLACE AT
PRECIPITATION ONSET.  THE BIG QUESTION ON SNOW POTENTIAL IS IF
INITIAL ONSET OF PRECIPITATION IS HEAVY ENOUGH TO ERODE WARM NOSE
AND COOL THE COLUMN BELOW FREEZING.  THERE COULD ACTUALLY BE A
PERIOD OF SLEET AT THE ONSET IN SOME AREAS BUT WILL LEAVE THAT
POTENTIAL OUT OF THE FORECAST RIGHT NOW FOR SIMPLICITY SAKE.  THE
LATE ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIPITATION /WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT/ PROVIDES THE
POTENTIAL FOR SFC TEMPERATURES TO DROP BELOW FREEZING IN MANY
LOCATIONS AS WELL AS ROAD TEMPERATURES. SOUTHWEST CORNER OF OUR AREA
/MANISTEE/ WILL LIKELY NOT SEE MUCH OF ANY FREEZING RAIN AT ALL
GIVEN MORE PRONOUNCED WARMING ALOFT AND WARMER SURFACE TEMPS DUE AT
LEAST PARTIALLY TO DOWNSLOPE FLOW.  ICING POTENTIAL OF 0.10 TO 0.20
INCHES POSSIBLE NORTH-EAST OF GRAYLING /INCLUDING EASTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN/.  THIS WILL LIKELY END UP BEING AN ADVISORY TYPE EVENT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AND MAY RESULT IN SLICK TRAVEL/SCHOOL
CLOSURE ISSUES FOR PARTS OF THE AREA.  CONDITIONS IMPROVE BY LATE
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS WARM AIR ADVECTION PUSHES SURFACE TEMPS ABOVE
FREEZING AND ANY ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION FALLS AS LIGHT RAIN.

EASTERN UPPER P-TYPE:  PRECIPITATION SHIELD MAY NOT ARRIVE IN
EASTERN UPPER UNTIL SHORTLY BEFORE SUNRISE WITH WIDESPREAD SURFACE
TEMPS IN THE 20S.  DEEPER COLD AIR WILL LIKELY BRING PRECIPITATION
IN AS A PERIOD OF SNOW AND/OR SLEET WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH A FEW
INCHES OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE /ESPECIALLY PARTS OF CHIPPEWA
COUNTY/. EVEN IN EASTERN UPPER...PRECIPITATION SHOULD TRANSITION TO
FREEZING RAIN /OR EVEN RAIN/ THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS WARM AIR
ALOFT SURGES NORTHWARD.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT
PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS UPPER WAVE SLIDES ACROSS
THE AREA.  THERMAL PROFILES POINT TOWARD SNOW...AS COLDER  FILTERS
BACK INTO THE AREA.  THIS DOESN/T APPEAR TO BE A BIG DEAL AS
MOISTURE/FORCING ARE NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE BUT THERE COULD BE SOME
MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...ESPECIALLY OVER PARTS OF EASTERN UPPER.
COLD ENOUGH TO ACTIVATE THE LAKES BY LATER THURSDAY WITH NORTHWEST
TO NORTH FLOW.  CHANGEABLE WIND DIRECTIONS...ONLY MARGINALLY COLD
ENOUGH TEMPERATURES AND MINIMAL MOISTURE AND AND PLENTY OF ICE
COVER...ALL POINT TOWARD MINIMAL IMPACT /FLURRIES OR A FEW
SNOWSHOWERS/.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 PM EDT MON MAR 23 2015

...COLD PATTERN RETURNS ONCE AGAIN FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...

PATTERN OVERVIEW/FORECAST: A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE...WESTERLY FLOW
PATTERN IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE PACIFIC INTO THE CONUS...WITH LOW
AMPLITUDE TROUGHING WORKING THROUGH THE WESTERN CONUS AND LOW
AMPLITUDE RIDGING MOVING INTO THE PLAINS. THUS...RELATIVELY SEASONAL
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE THE RULE ACROSS THE CONUS...AND NOTHING TOO
HIGH IMPACT. BUT...THINGS LOOKING TO TAKE A TURN FOR THE COLDER AS
WE GO THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE
ENERGY IN THE WESTERN CONUS LOOKING TO UNDERGO SOME DEGREE OF
PHASING WITH DEEPER/CLOSED LOW PRESSURE IN NORTHERN CANADA...DIGGING
OUT SUBSTANTIAL TROUGHING OVER EASTERN NOAM. THIS OF COURSE WILL
DRAG ANOTHER CORE OF ARCTIC DOWN THROUGH EASTERN CANADA INTO THE
GREAT LAKES DURING THE FRIDAY-SATURDAY TIMEFRAME WITH HIGHS IN THE
TEENS TO 20S AND LOWS SINGLE DIGITS TO THE TEENS.

WEATHER-WISE...AFTER WEDNESDAY/S MESS...SECONDARY COLD FRONT LOOKING
TO SAG DOWN INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY USHERING IN THAT VERY COLD
AIRMASS TO WRAP UP THE WORK WEEK. MIGHT BE SOME LIGHT SNOW WITH THE
FRONT ITSELF ON THURSDAY AND WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME LIGHT
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS RETURN LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS H8 TAKE A
PLUNGE THROUGH THE NEGATIVE TEENS TO AROUND -20C BY FRIDAY MORNING.
BEYOND THAT...LARGE EXPANSE OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY LEADING TO OVERALL DRY BUT
COLD CONDITIONS (SINGLE DIGIT LOWS SATURDAY MORNING).

FORTUNATELY...CORE OF COLD AIR AND DEEP TROUGHING IS SLATED TO BE
FLEETING...EXITING OUT THE GREAT LAKES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND ALLOWING TEMPS TO REBOUND. BUT ANOTHER NRN STREAM SHORT WAVE
IS SLATED TO DROP DOWN THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES LATE SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW. COULD SEE A FEW INCHES
WITH THIS SYSTEM...BEFORE THINGS SETTLE BACK DOWN FOR NEXT MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 729 PM EDT MON MAR 23 2015

VFR.

HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUR WX. CIRRUS
WILL BE SEEN OVERHEAD TONIGHT...LESS SO ON TUESDAY. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED...AND LITTLE IS EXPECTED IN THE WAY OF
CUMULUS.

LIGHT WINDS THRU THE FORECAST.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...TJL
SHORT TERM...KEYSOR
LONG TERM...ADAM
AVIATION...JAZ



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