Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 230600
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
100 AM CDT SAT APR 23 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 658 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2016

CLOUDS DEVELOPING AND SPREADING ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER IN
THE COLD AIR ADVECTION AT 700MB. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH A 37
DEGREE DEWPOINT DEPRESSION. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD
COVER. REST OF THE FORECAST ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2016

HIGH PRESSURE HAS BROUGHT MUCH DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION WITH
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 20S ACROSS NORTHERN
MINNESOTA. THE LIGHT WINDS AND DRY AIR WILL ALLOW FOR A COOL
NIGHT. HAVE LOWERED MIN TEMPERATURES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH
MOST AREAS FALLING INTO THE 20S. HOWEVER...TIMING OF ADVANCING
CLOUD COVER WILL PLAY A SIGNIFICANT ROLE IN HOW LOW TEMPS WILL
FALL AS DEW POINTS ARE IN THE LOW TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS.

CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION. HAVE REMOVED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TONIGHT AS LATEST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MID LEVELS REMAIN
DRY. RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL MINNESOTA
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...PWAT VALUES RAPIDLY INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY AS WINDS BECOME GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTH.
SOUNDINGS ALSO PICKING UP ON A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF CAPE IN THE
BRAINERD REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT HAVE LEFT OUT MENTION OF
THUNDER AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2016

COOL AND WET WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR EARLY THIS WEEK WHEN AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND UPPER MIDWEST SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER CANADA WILL HELP PROVIDE
DRIER AND SUNNIER WEATHER FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...BUT A LOW
WILL LIKELY MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...POSSIBLY PROVIDING LIGHT PCPN AS FAR AS THE SOUTHERN
FORECAST AREA.

A NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS SATURDAY EVENING...THEN MOVE EAST
THROUGH SOUTH DAKOTA SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY...AND THE SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA OR NORTHERN IOWA AREA MONDAY. THE NORTHLAND WILL FIND
ITSELF NORTH OF THE SYSTEM WITH COOL NE FLOW AND DREARY WEATHER. THE
SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP PCPN ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY. THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS PRIMARILY IN THE UPPER 30S TO 40S. THE COLDEST
WEATHER WILL BE AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR. THE TEMPERATURES MAY BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR A PERIOD OF WET SNOW ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD EARLY
SUNDAY...AND THEN ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND THE LAKE SUPERIOR
AREA OF NW WISCONSIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. LITTLE IF ANY
ACCUMULATION IS FORECAST AT THIS TIME AS MELTING WOULD LIKELY
PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION. THE LATEST FORECAST HAS
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. SOME PARTS OF NW
WISCONSIN COULD APPROACH 2 INCHES. ON THE OTHER HAND...FAR NORTHERN
MINNESOTA MAY HAVE A DIFFICULTY REACH A QUARTER OF AN INCH BECAUSE
OF THE INFLUENCE OF DRIER AIR OVER CANADA. THE GFS/SREF/NAM12 ARE
INDICATING UP TO A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF MUCAPE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...SO ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER.
THE NE FLOW WILL BE GUSTY ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...ESPECIALLY DOWNWIND
OF LAKE SUPERIOR. THE TWIN PORTS AREA COULD GET GUSTS OVER 30 MPH.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER MANITOBA AND ONTARIO WILL HELP DRY AND CLEAR OUT
THE NORTHLAND MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE EXTRA SUNSHINE ON
TUESDAY SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES REACH THE UPPER 40S TO LOW
50S...EXCEPT IT MAY ONLY GET TO THE LOW 40S NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR.

THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ATTEMPT TO MAINTAIN THE DRY...BUT COOL NE
FLOW...PATTERN OVER THE NORTHLAND FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER LOW WILL LIKELY DEVELOP NEAR COLORADO AND MOVE
ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING PCPN AS FAR NORTH AS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST
AREA. THE PCPN TYPE WILL LIKELY BE RAIN...BUT LIGHT SNOW IS NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1259 AM CDT SAT APR 23 2016

VFR AT THE START OF THE FORECAST. DELAYED THE ONSET OF THE RAIN
TO AFTER 00Z/7PM AS MODELS ARE TOO FAST AND DRY AIR HAS TO BE
OVERCOME. MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE ONCE THE RAIN BEGINS. GUSTY SFC
WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED AT BRD FROM NOON TO 21Z/4 PM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  29  44  36  39 /   0  20  70  80
INL  27  49  36  50 /   0  60  60  20
BRD  35  65  45  48 /   0  30  60  90
HYR  28  61  47  51 /   0  10  70  80
ASX  28  54  39  42 /   0  10  80  90

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GSF/LE



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