Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 251807
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
107 PM CDT MON APR 25 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 106 PM CDT MON APR 25 2016

UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT MON APR 25 2016

A SURFACE LOW IS POSITIONED OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH A WARM
FRONT DRAPED EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.
NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY WE HAVE A LARGE AREA OF FRONTOGENETICALLY &
ISENTROPICALLY DRIVEN PRECIPITATION...MOSTLY RAIN AND A FEW RUMBLES
OF THUNDER.   TODAY THIS SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT TO
SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...BEFORE MOVING OFF
ACROSS WISCONSIN AND TO SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TONIGHT.  THIS WILL KEEP
THAT AREA OF PRECIPITATION GOING OVER THE FORECAST AREA MOST OF
TODAY.  THE FRONTOGENESIS IS LIFTING NORTH THIS MORNING...AND SO WE
HAVE AN AREA WITH LITTLE/NO PRECIPITATION OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT IT SHOULD FILL BACK IN FROM THE WEST AS THE
SURFACE LOW MOVES FARTHER EAST.  THIS WILL BE THE AREA THAT IS MOST
LIKELY TO GET ANY INSTABILITY AND THUNDER TODAY...SO HAVE KEPT THAT
GOING AS WELL.  BY THIS EVENING THE SURFACE LOW IS A LITTLE TOO FAR
EAST...PUSHING THE INSTABILITY EAST AS WELL AND THE THUNDER
POTENTIAL DECREASES SIGNIFICANTLY.  HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES FOR
TODAY...VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT WE GOT YESTERDAY UNDERNEATH ALL THESE
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION.  IN ADDITION...THE NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO BRING IN COOLER AIR AND KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN.
NORTHEAST WINDS TO CONTINUE TO BLOW STRONGLY OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR...PRODUCING STRONG WINDS INTO THE TWIN PORTS TODAY.  HAVE
KEPT WIND SPEEDS CONSISTENTLY OVER GUIDANCE...WHICH SHOULD AT LEAST
BE IN THE BALLPARK.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT MON APR 25 2016

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A WESTERN TROUGH THAT WILL BRING A SERIES OF UPPER CLOSED LOWS
ACROSS THE MIDWEST. IN GENERAL...THEY WILL KEEP THE NORTHLAND IN
A COOL EASTERLY FLOW. MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE DRY WITH
THE NEXT CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD RAIN NOT UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE
REGION BEHIND THE CURRENT TROF...BUT THE DRY WEATHER WILL BE SHORT-
LIVED AS YET ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEAST FROM THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES. WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY RAIN WILL SPREAD INTO
THE MIDWEST FROM THE SOUTH AND POSSIBLY INTO SOUTHERN AREAS OF THE
FORECAST AREA...BRAINERD LAKES IN MINNESOTA EASTWARD TO HAYWARD AND
PHILLIPS IN NORTHERN WI. TEMPERATURES BECOME COLD ENOUGH FOR ICE
SO HAVE INTRODUCED SOME SNOW. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED
OVER HUDSON BAY WILL KEEP RAIN FROM MOVING FARTHER NORTH. THE SAME
SCENARIO WILL BE REPEATED FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE
FRIDAY THEN LOW PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTH WILL BE BRINGING RAIN INTO
SOUTHERN AREAS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY THEN SPREADING FARTHER NORTH
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 106 PM CDT MON APR 25 2016

A PASSING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE WIDESPREAD IFR WITH A FEW SITES NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR
HOVERING IN THE LIFR RANGE DUE TO LOW STRATUS... AND MVFR NORTH
AND INLAND ACROSS THE IRON RANGE. EXTREMELY GUSTY CONDITIONS OUT
OF THE EAST... NEARING 40 KTS AT TIMES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE NIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY BECOMING LIGHTER AND
IMPROVING A BIT TOMORROW. RAIN WITH AN OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO WILL REMAIN IN THE FCST TODAY... WITH POSSIBLE SNOW MIXING IN
OVERNIGHT BEFORE DRYING OUT AROUND 12Z TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
WORK ITS WAY IN FROM THE NORTH TOWARDS THE END OF THE 24HR TAF
PERIOD... SO EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO POSSIBLE MVFR/VFR AFTER 18Z
TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  36  32  42  30 /  90  70   0   0
INL  44  30  54  28 /  80  30   0   0
BRD  45  35  49  32 /  80  40  20  10
HYR  50  36  51  31 /  90  50  10   0
ASX  41  35  44  31 /  90  70   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR LSZ121-140>148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...CLC
AVIATION...MCLOVIN



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