Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 200215 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
815 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...
LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL OCCASIONALLY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
AS NORTH TEXAS REMAINS SITUATED ON THE SOUTHWEST FLANK OF A
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS. WE ARE BEGINNING TO SEE A FEW LOWERING
VISIBILITIES ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...SO WE WILL ADD SOME
PATCHY FOG TO THE GRIDS FOR THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY
TIME FRAME. OTHERWISE CLOUDY AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE
REGION...AND LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S ELSEWHERE.

30

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 623 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/
/00Z TAFS/

A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE EXITING THE REGION
THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS
REMAINED ENTRENCHED WITHIN A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE WITH NORTH WINDS
5-10 KTS. IFR AND MVFR REMAIN SOCKED INTO THE AREA WITH PATCHY
LIGHT FOG AND DRIZZLE. CHALLENGES THIS FORECAST WILL BE TRENDS
WITH CIGS AND VSBYS. MODEL BUFR SOUNDINGS AND MOS GUIDANCE ARE ALL
SHOWING DIFFERENT SCENARIOS...WITH THE THE NAM AND RUC THE MOST
PESSIMISTIC.

DUE TO OUR CURRENT SYNOPTIC SET UP WITHIN THE LOW LEVELS...THE
PESSIMISTIC APPROACH APPEARS TO BE THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO. DFW
AREA AIRPORTS WILL START OFF MVFR THIS EVENING THEN BECOME IFR
OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR VSBYS. IF WINDS GO CALM WE COULD SEE VSBYS
DROP INTO THE IFR CATEGORY AS WELL. WACO WILL LIKELY SEE IFR CIGS
THIS EVENING WITH THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME LIFR OVERNIGHT AS WINDS
DROP OFF.

IMPROVEMENT ON SATURDAY WILL BE SLOW AS WE APPROACH THE SHORTEST
DAY OF THE YEAR. IFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY MORNING WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE
TO MVFR BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH VISIBILITY IMPROVING TO VFR.
ESE FLOW LIKELY TO RETURN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL.

05/


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

JUST A FEW SPRINKLES THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE RED RIVER AS THE
UPPER TROF CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE. LOW CLOUDS
BLANKET NORTH TEXAS AND WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS AND A STRONG
LOW-LEVEL INVERSION...EXPECT CLOUDS TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVERNIGHT
AND THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY TOMORROW THOUGH A BIT OF SUNSHINE WILL
BE POSSIBLE BY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN ZONES.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL NOT DROP MUCH FROM WHERE WE ARE RIGHT
NOW DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND WILL BE SLOW TO REBOUND ON
SATURDAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY BUT WILL NOT HAVE ANY SENSIBLE IMPACTS ON THE WEATHER
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. SUNDAY WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN SATURDAY AS
SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN ACROSS THE AREA.

NEXT FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH NORTH TEXAS LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE QUITE LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM
AND AS A RESULT JUST HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS OVER THE EASTERN
ZONES. ANY RAINFALL THAT OCCURS WILL BE QUITE LIGHT.

COOLER WEATHER IN STORE FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT
BUT THE BRUNT OF THE COLDEST AIR WILL STAY WELL TO OUR EAST AND A
RESULT...TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO CLIMO. A VERY MILD CHRISTMAS IS IN
STORE AS LOW-LEVEL WINDS BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY ON CHRISTMAS DAY
USHERING IN WARMER AIR.

WILEY



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  40  52  41  55  45 /   5   5   5  10  10
WACO, TX              42  53  40  56  44 /   5   5   5  10   5
PARIS, TX             39  49  38  52  42 /  10   5   5  10  10
DENTON, TX            39  51  39  54  43 /   5   5   5  10  10
MCKINNEY, TX          40  50  38  53  43 /  10   5   5  10  10
DALLAS, TX            40  52  41  55  45 /   5   5   5  10  10
TERRELL, TX           41  51  40  54  44 /  10   5   5  10  10
CORSICANA, TX         43  54  41  55  45 /  10   5   5  10  10
TEMPLE, TX            43  54  41  56  44 /   5   5   5  10  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     39  51  38  55  42 /   5   5   5  10   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

05/30






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