Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS64 KFWD 261745
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1245 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/ BACK EDGE OF LOW CLOUD DECK IS MOVING RAPIDLY
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH NORTH TEXAS...AND WILL BE CLEAR OF ALL TAF
SITES BY 20Z. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH REMAINDER OF
FORECAST PERIOD.

A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE TX PANHANDLE...AND A FRONTAL
TROUGH OVER LA/WRN GULF...WILL MAINTAIN A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER N TEXAS THRU 22Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTHERLY ON THE
ORDER OF 15-20KTS...GUSTING TO 25KTS...AT TAF SITES THROUGH
22Z...THEN DIMINISH STEADILY AND BACK AROUND TO A SW DIRECTION
LATER TONIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP RAPIDLY SOUTHWARD
THROUGH N TX FRIDAY MORNING...PRODUCING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH
AROUND 16Z IN THE METROPLEX...AND 18-19Z AT WACO. PRESSURE
GRADIENT BEHIND THIS NEXT FRONT WON`T BE AS INTENSE...RESULTING IN
SPEEDS OF ONLY 10-13KTS POST-FRONT.

BRADSHAW

&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/
THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO QUICKLY PUSH SOUTHEAST AND IS JUST
ABOUT OUT OF THE CWA. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE JUST BEHIND THE
FRONT BUT THIS ACTIVITY WILL ALSO VACATE THE CWA BY EARLY MORNING.
SKIES WILL CLEAR RATHER RAPIDLY TODAY AS THE MOISTURE IS SCOURED
OUT BY DEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE MID TROPOSPHERE. WINDS
ARE RUNNING 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH EARLY THIS
MORNING AND A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH NOON FOR ALL BUT
THE FAR EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN CWA. THESE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH...BUT WILL STILL REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN YESTERDAY WITH COLD
ADVECTION CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY...HOWEVER THE SPRING SUNSHINE
WILL HELP WARM TEMPS INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S BY LATE AFTERNOON.
DIMINISHING WINDS...CLEAR SKIES...AND LOW DEWPOINTS WILL ALLOW FOR
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT. TEMPS WILL DIP DOWN INTO THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. SURFACE WINDS INCREASE JUST ENOUGH BY
SUNRISE THAT IT SHOULD HELP NIX ANY FROST POTENTIAL.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FRIDAY AND THIS WEEKEND WILL FEATURE A
LARGE RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. WITH A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE
EAST. THIS WILL KEEP NORTH TEXAS IN A DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
PATTERN AND ENSURE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...LOW AFTERNOON HUMIDITY AND
PLEASANT SPRING TEMPS WITH COOL NIGHTS AND WARM AFTERNOONS. SOUTH
WINDS INCREASE BY SUNDAY WITH MOISTURE MAKING A RETURN AHEAD OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT THAT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL STALL OVER OKLAHOMA SUNDAY
NIGHT. WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...SOME RESIDUAL CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY ALONG THIS FRONT MAY SPILL INTO THE NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF
THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT AND HAVE ADDED SOME LOW POPS. MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY LOOK SUFFICIENT FOR SOME ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EVENING
ACTIVITY MONDAY...BUT THERE IS NO ORGANIZED UPPER SYSTEM OR
SURFACE BOUNDARY TO AID IN LIFT SO POPS WILL STAY AT 20 PERCENT.

BY TUESDAY THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME WESTERLY OVER THE
REGION. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE WITH RESPECT
TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE PACIFIC NEXT WEEK. THE
ECMWF/CANADIAN STILL ADVERTISE A WEAK OPEN WAVE TROUGH THAT TRACKS
A BIT TOO FAR SOUTH OF THE CWA FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN. THE GFS CLOSES THIS SYSTEM OFF AND PRODUCES
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND STORMS OVER NORTH TEXAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. SINCE THIS WAVE ENERGY WILL HAVE TO DRIVE RIGHT
INTO THE HEART OF...AND BREAK DOWN...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE SONORA DESERT THIS WEEKEND...AM LEANING TOWARD THE
ECMWF/CANADIAN. WILL KEEP POPS LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM AND WILL HAVE
20 PERCENT NORTH OF I-20 AND 30 PERCENT SOUTH OF I-20. OTHERWISE
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM AND A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK.

TR.92



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  63  44  73  49  82 /   5   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX              64  40  77  47  82 /  10   0   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             62  41  67  45  76 /  10   0   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            62  39  72  46  82 /   5   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          62  39  71  44  80 /   5   0   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            64  45  73  51  82 /   5   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           62  41  72  46  79 /  10   0   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         63  42  74  48  79 /  10   0   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            64  40  79  46  82 /  10   0   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     63  39  77  46  85 /   5   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.