Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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593
FXUS64 KFWD 111559
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
959 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.UPDATE...
CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE THIS MORNING. A WEAK COLD FRONT
LIES DRAPED ACROSS THE DFW METRO AREA THIS MORNING AND WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPERATURES
AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES ARE RUNNING A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE FORECAST AND HAVE MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
HOURLY TRENDS AND MAX T ACROSS THESE AREAS. 99



&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 518 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL SITES.
A STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND MAXIMA ABOUT 1000-2000FT ABOVE THE GROUND.
HAVE PLACED SOME LLWS 24045KT AT 1500FT TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS AS THE
DIRECTION IS MORE WESTERLY THAN THE SURFACE WINDS. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL MAKE IT THROUGH NORTH TEXAS AROUND 15Z BRING THE WINDS
AROUND TO THE NORTH AND THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY FRIDAY.

78


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 238 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016/
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NORTH TEXAS TODAY AND BRING SLIGHTLY
COOLER AND DRIER AIR. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL MANAGE TO WARM INTO
THE UPPER 60S AND 70S IN MOST LOCATIONS UNDER FULL SUN. WIND
SPEEDS WILL REMAIN IN THE 5 TO 10 MPH RANGE WHICH WILL KEEP THE
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FROM BECOMING ELEVATED EVEN THOUGH
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL BELOW 30 PERCENT IN
MANY SPOTS.

STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY AND PUSH THE COLD FRONT TO THE TEXAS
COAST. AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES
COOLER THAN THURSDAY AND WIND SPEEDS WILL BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER.

COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS.

THE UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME ZONAL SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WHICH
WILL RESULT IN SURFACE LEE TROUGHING AND THE RETURN OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST...WHEN A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE REGION. MOST OF THE ENERGY
FROM THE SHORTWAVE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE RED RIVER. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL END QUICKLY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS DRIER AND COOLER AIR
FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH.

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AND RESULT IN QUIET WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND. HIGH
TEMPERATURES BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE 40S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNING.

79



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  71  42  69  41  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX              79  42  72  42  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             68  38  66  38  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            69  38  67  37  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          69  38  66  39  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            71  43  68  42  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           71  41  68  40  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         77  46  71  44  62 /   0   0   0   5   0
TEMPLE, TX            80  45  73  44  68 /   0   0   0   5   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     72  38  70  37  63 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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