Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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990
FXUS64 KFWD 160458 AAB
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1158 PM CDT Tue Aug 15 2017


.AVIATION...
An area of showers and thunderstorms that was west of
KABI-KBBD-KUVA line at 0445z is expected to move northeast
through Monday morning. Some of these showers are expected to move
into the western parts of North Texas overnight and may approach
the Metroplex TAF sites by 11z. Ahead of this area of showers and
thunderstorms, isolated showers are also possible that could
briefly affect the Metroplex TAF sites. For now, have isolated
showers in the TAFs and placed a VCSH for the 11-15z period.
Depending on the evolution of the area of showers and
thunderstorms to the southwest, a VCTS or even a TEMPO TSRA may be
warranted if this activity holds together. Some MVFR ceilings
will also be possible during the 11-15z period, so have also
included at TEMPO BKN025. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected.
South winds around 10 knots tonight will increase to around 15
knots by 16z Wednesday and there may be some gusts over 20 knots.

At Waco, MVFR ceilings may spread into the area toward 09z and
continue past 15z with an improvement to VFR afterwards. South
winds at around 15 knots will prevail.

58

&&


.SHORT TERM... /Issued 348 PM CDT Tue Aug 15 2017/
/Tonight/

An active southwest flow aloft regime will continue across Western
and far northern Texas up into Oklahoma and the Ozarks tonight.
Shortwave energy will continue to provide modest isentropic ascent
across our northwest counties. Though this area is currently
cloudy with mainly a weak batch of light showers streaming
northeast across the far northwest counties, another shortwave
disturbance moving northeast from the Big Bend/Davis Mountains
area is already triggering new convection across the Permian
Basin. This activity will follow suit and organize into another
potential storm cluster overnight, as a 30-40 knot LLJ allows warm
advection to feed in from the Gulf of Mexico.

Instability will be elevated with any convection not expected to
be severe. Main threats will be lightning and very localized
rainfall with amounts up to...or in excess of an inch possible
across the northwest counties tonight. Some weakening activity
could enter the western DFW Metroplex or I-35/35W corridor by
daybreak Wednesday morning. Otherwise, a stratus deck will be
surging northward after midnight and likely result in cloudy skies
when you rise in the morning and prepare for your morning commute
or taking children to school. Occasionally breezy south winds
near 15 mph will combine with the increasing cloud cover for lows
in the 70s areawide.

05/

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 348 PM CDT Tue Aug 15 2017/
/Wednesday through Tuesday/

Scattered showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms should be
ongoing at the beginning of Wednesday across our northwest
counties aided by persistent mid level isentropic ascent. This
activity should diminish through the late morning hours as the
main shortwave ejects into the central Plans and heights rise from
ridging to the east. Wednesday should be mostly dry across the
region although we`ll hang on to some low PoPs across the north
and west through afternoon given the ample moisture and less
influence from the ridge to the east. Coverage should generally be
less than 20% tomorrow afternoon. Temperatures on Wednesday will
climb into the mid to upper 90s areawide and given that we
probably won`t mix dewpoints much lower than around 70 degrees in
many areas, heat indices will approach or exceed 105 degrees in a
few areas. The only uncertainty concerns the amount of cloud
cover expected which could keep temperatures a little lower. For
now, we`ll hold off on a heat advisory, but if precipitation
coverage and cloud cover is less overnight into early Wednesday,
then we may need an advisory for parts of the area Wednesday into
Thursday.

By Wednesday night a cold front will make steady southward
progress into the southern Plains and should be draped across
parts of Oklahoma. Thunderstorms are expected to develop along the
frontal boundary and may extend southward into parts of North
Texas during the overnight hours. Given that we`ve been very
moist through a deep column, and overall flow has been rather
benign, thunderstorm coverage has generally been a little greater
than depicted in the model guidance over the last several days.
This is also depicted in the high-res guidance with quite a bit of
variability in the solutions. For now, we`ll have some 30-40% PoPs
across the northwest counties Wednesday night spreading to areas
mainly north of I-20 overnight into early Thursday morning.

With the strongest part of the upper ridging failing to ever fully
settle in across the region, we`ll maintain some low PoPs mainly
across the northern parts of the CWA through Friday. Temperatures
will be near seasonal norms although heat index values will
approach Heat Advisory criteria through the remainder of the week.

Dunn

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    79  96  79  95  79 /  20  30  40  20   5
Waco                79  98  79  98  77 /  20  20  10  20   5
Paris               75  91  76  90  75 /  10  20  50  50  20
Denton              78  95  77  94  76 /  30  30  50  30  10
McKinney            77  94  77  93  76 /  10  30  50  30  10
Dallas              80  97  80  95  80 /  20  30  40  30   5
Terrell             77  95  77  94  76 /   5  20  20  30   5
Corsicana           78  96  78  97  77 /   5  10  10  20   5
Temple              77  98  78  98  76 /  20  10   5  10   5
Mineral Wells       76  95  76  94  75 /  40  30  30  20  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

58/24



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