Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 232348
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
648 PM CDT Sun Jul 23 2017


.AVIATION...
Scattered thunderstorms have begun to diminish in coverage this
evening with only isolated showers and a couple storms remaining
across North Texas. Have removed VCTS from Metroplex TAFs through
the evening period, but will continue the mention for an hour at
Waco with a storm ongoing near the airport as of 2330z.

The next concern will be convection moving southward from
Oklahoma this evening. An unorganized cluster of storms should
drift south into North TX in the next few hours. With loss of
heating and weak wind fields in the lowest 3 km, this convection
should weaken as it nears I-20. Have gone with VCSH at Metroplex
airports right now, but may need VCTS if this convection holds
together or stays more intense than expected. Outflow with this
activity may also cause a northerly wind shift at Metroplex
airports. Will continue to monitor trends and address these
concerns at the 03z AMDs if necessary.

Another round of diurnal thunderstorms is expected on Monday
afternoon and have included VCTS at all sites beginning around
20z. Otherwise, VFR and south winds will prevail outside of any
intermittent convection.

-Stalley

&&


.DISCUSSION... /Issued 315 PM CDT Sun Jul 23 2017/
Abundant moisture and moderate instability will remain in place
across the region tonight through Monday and continue to be the
key ingredients for scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Convection late this afternoon into the evening hours will remain
most likely on either side of a weak shear axis (as seen on
current water vapor images) which roughly bisects the region from
northeast to southwest. Any outflow from these storms will likely
initiate new convection which could linger through the evening
hours. These storms will have the potential to briefly become
strong/severe with downburst winds the primary hazard. Slow
movement and high precipitable water values will also yield
locally heavy rainfall in those areas fortunate enough to see
storms.

The focus for convection this evening into the overnight hours
will be along a very weak cold front currently moving across
Central Oklahoma. Models have been fairly consistent developing
at least some convection across southern Oklahoma along this front
with some weak organization expected through the night. Although
we don`t anticipate a strong MCS moving south of the Red River
overnight/Monday morning, there should be at least scattered
showers and storms with the best chances across the north and
northeast zones.

The activity that develops Monday afternoon will be largely
dependent on what happens during the morning hours. The most
likely scenario, and the one we will base this forecast on, is
that morning convection across the northern zones will send out
multiple outflows which will become the focus for afternoon and
early evening convection with the best storm chances across the
southeast quarter of the forecast area. Storms should dissipate
late Monday evening with the loss of surface heating and
increasing large scale subsidence.

Monday should be slightly cooler than today due to increasing
cloudiness and slightly higher storm coverage. Although it will
still be hot with high temperatures in the 90s, heat index values
will be below heat advisory criteria. Therefore, we will let the
current heat advisory expire at 7 PM tonight.

By Tuesday the upper ridge will build back over the Central and
Southern Plains and result in an increase in temperatures and a
decrease in rain chances. This pattern will continue on Wednesday
and Thursday with triple digit heat and heat index values in
excess of 105 returning to many locations.

The good news is that the upper ridge is progged to shift back to
the west by the weekend which will result in a weak frontal
passage Saturday, increasing rain/storm chances and slightly
cooler temperatures.

79

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    80  96  79  99  80 /  30  40  20   5   0
Waco                78  98  77  99  77 /  20  40  10   5   0
Paris               75  93  74  95  75 /  40  40  20  10   5
Denton              76  96  76  98  78 /  30  40  20   5   5
McKinney            76  96  76  97  77 /  30  40  20   5   5
Dallas              81  97  79  99  80 /  30  40  20   5   0
Terrell             77  95  75  96  76 /  30  40  20   5   0
Corsicana           77  95  76  97  76 /  30  40  20   5   0
Temple              76  98  75  99  76 /  20  30  10   5   0
Mineral Wells       75  97  74  99  76 /  20  30  10   5   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ091>095-102>107-
117>123-131>135-144>148-157>162-174-175.

&&

$$

26/05



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