Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 010439
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1139 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES OVERNIGHT
AS LIGHT NORTH WINDS CONTINUE TO USHER IN DRIER AIR ACROSS THE
REGION. A SWATH OF MVFR CIGS SHOULD DEVELOP TONIGHT ALONG AND
SOUTH OF A STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS...SOME OF
WHICH MAY MANAGE TO MOVE INTO THE WACO AREA AFTER 12Z MONDAY.
HAVE ACCOUNTED FOR THIS WITH A TEMPO GROUP AT THIS TIME WITH A LOW
PROBABILITY OF THESE CONDITIONS MATERIALIZING AS FAR NORTH AS WACO.

WIND SPEEDS SHOULD INCREASE SUNDAY MORNING WITH SUSTAINED
NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 15 KTS EXPECTED. AN UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY
EVENING...WHICH WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED STORMS PRIMARILY AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. HAVE ACCOUNTED FOR THIS WITH A MENTION OF VCSH IN
THE EXTENDED DFW TAF AS WELL AS THE WACO TAF WHERE SHOWERS MAY
BEGIN A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN THE DFW AREA SITES. THUNDER IS MORE
LIKELY FARTHER SOUTH WHERE THERE SHOULD BE MORE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY IN PLACE...AND MAY NEED TO SHOW VCTS AT WACO IN FUTURE
TAF ISSUANCES. ANY STORM THAT MANAGES TO FORM NORTH OF THE
STALLED FRONTAL ZONE CLOSER TO THE DFW AREA SHOULD BE ISOLATED AND
SHORT-LIVED.

DEPENDING ON THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...WIDESPREAD MVFR
CIGS COULD BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY MORNING IF NUMEROUS
SHOWERS MANAGE TO DEVELOP. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP AN OPTIMISTIC
FORECAST AND NOT INCLUDE PREVAILING MVFR CIGS IN THE EXTENDED DFW
TAF AT THIS TIME. EXPECT ANY RAIN AND STORMS TO END FROM WEST TO
EAST MONDAY AFTERNOON...OUTSIDE OF THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD.

STALLEY

&&

.UPDATE...
EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS COOLER DRIER AIR NOW STARTING TO
FILTER INTO NORTH TEXAS. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL HAS LED TO WET GROUNDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA AND THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG ESPECIALLY WHERE
WINDS GO CALM...BUT THINK WIDESPREAD FOG IS UNLIKELY GIVEN THE
DRIER AIR MOVING IN AND WIND SPEEDS THAT SHOULD STAY AROUND 5 KT
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT
THIS TIME OTHER THAN TO TWEAK HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND LOWER THE
AREAL COVERAGE OF FOG OVERNIGHT.

DUNN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016/
LOW LEVEL DRY AIR CONTINUES ADVECTING INTO THE AREA BEHIND A COLD
FRONT NOW ENTERING CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION...THE UPPER DISTURBANCE RESPONSIBLE FOR FRIDAY/S CONVECTIVE
OUTBREAK CONTINUES LIFTING NORTH AWAY FROM NORTH TEXAS. SUBSIDENCE
ACROSS THE AREA IS HELPING TO BREAK OUT THE STRATUS THAT/S BEEN
AROUND ALL DAY. CLEARING SKIES...LIGHT NORTH WINDS AND SOME WET
SOILS AROUND MAY LEND TO SOME PATCHY FOG...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA WHERE HEAVIER RAINS FELL. LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 60S SOUTHEAST.

A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH REMAINS PREVALENT OVER THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN CONUS. ANOTHER UPPER LOW NOW OVER LAS VEGAS NV IS
LITERALLY ROTATING IN A FUJIWARA FASHION WITH THE OLD LOW NOW
MOVING NORTH OVER NEBRASKA...ALL WITHIN THE BROADER LONG WAVE
TROUGH. THE SYSTEM OVER LAS VEGAS WILL BEGIN TO TURN EAST AND MOVE
ACROSS ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE AT
THE SURFACE...A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
INTO TEXAS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE ACROSS OUR CENTRAL TEXAS COUNTIES AND AHEAD OF THE
SECONDARY COLD FRONT FOR A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME STRONG-SEVERE
STORMS SOUTHEAST OF GATESVILLE TO ATHENS LINE LATE IN THE DAY
SUNDAY. HAIL...DOWNBURST WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WOULD BE THE
MAIN HAZARDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS WHERE HIGHS
WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S WITH AMPLE INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER
SHEAR PRESENT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR THE CWA LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY...AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND LAPSE RATES INCREASE SOMEWHAT
ABOVE THE FRONTAL INVERSION. THE ENTIRE CWA WILL BE WITHIN THE LOW
LEVEL COOL SECTOR...SO ANY STRONG STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ELEVATED
WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING SMALL HAIL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS. AT THIS TIME IT DOES NOT APPEAR RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WARRANT ANY FLOOD WATCHES EAST OF I-35...BUT ADDITIONAL
AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY EXACERBATE ONGOING RIVER FLOODING ISSUES ON
THE BRAZOS/TRINITY/AND SABINE RIVER BASINS. LOWS MONDAY MORNING
WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S WITH HIGHS WARMING INTO THE 60S NORTHWEST
AND THE LOWER 70S SOUTHEAST. AS THIS SECOND UPPER LOW LIFTS ACROSS
THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING...BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
SOUTH OF I-20 WHERE COLUMN MOISTURE WILL BE A LITTLE RICHER. LOW
CHANCES WILL LINGER ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS MONDAY EVENING...BEFORE
SUBSIDENCE MOVES IN WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM.

THE CURRENT AND PROGRESSIVE PATTERN ALOFT FINALLY APPEARS TO
BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED THE REST OF THIS COMING WEEK. A FULL
LATITUDE UPPER RIDGE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST FROM THE ROCKIES AND
OVER THE PLAINS WITH A DRY AND SEASONABLE WEEK AHEAD. THIS IS GOOD
NEWS FOR THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS THAT NEED TIME TO DRY OUT
FROM RECENT HEAVY RAINS. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DO SHOW ANOTHER
STRONG SYSTEM ARRIVING LATER NEXT WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY PART OF
THE WEEK OF MAY 7TH. MANY DETAILS STILL NEED TO BE RESOLVED
REGARDING THIS SYSTEM...AS MODELS USUALLY STRUGGLE MIGHTILY WITH
TRACK...TIMING...MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY BEYOND 120 HOURS OF THE
FORECAST. WE HAVE PLENTY OF TIME TO RECOVER HERE AND GET MORE
DATA INTO MODELS FOR THE TIME BEING WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED
AFTER MONDAY AND MUCH OF THE WEEK.

05/



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH    58  75  59  69  55 /   5   5  60  30   5
WACO                59  77  58  71  56 /   5  20  60  30  10
PARIS               57  76  56  70  54 /  10   5  60  20   5
DENTON              54  74  55  68  52 /   0   5  50  30   5
MCKINNEY            56  75  56  68  53 /   5   5  60  30   5
DALLAS              59  76  59  70  56 /   5   5  60  30   5
TERRELL             58  77  58  71  55 /   5  10  60  40  10
CORSICANA           60  78  60  72  56 /  10  20  60  40  10
TEMPLE              61  78  60  72  56 /  10  20  60  40  20
MINERAL WELLS       54  73  55  69  51 /   5  10  50  30   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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