Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 212349
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
649 PM CDT SUN AUG 21 2016

.AVIATION...
Concerns: MVFR/IFR cigs Monday morning and TS potential.

The stalled frontal boundary continues to lift northward this
evening and has re-entered the DFW Metroplex from the south as of
2330z. South of the boundary, winds have veered to the southeast,
and winds just to its north have become more easterly as the front
approaches. This veering should continue as the front continues
pushing northward with all sites going light southeast overnight.
The large cloud shield associated the front also continues to
expand northward with high clouds currently in the process of
overspreading the entire DFW area.

Later this evening, the more substantial moisture south of the front
will advance northward. The MVFR/IFR cigs currently located across
Central TX, including Waco, will increase and spread to the north
as well resulting in prolonged MVFR cigs at all TAF sites by early
Monday morning. Isolated showers will also be possible during this
time and have maintained VCSH at all sites. Some patchy fog may
develop overnight, or at least some mist that could temporarily
reduce vsbys, but this would not be long-lived or widespread
enough to warrant any TAF mention at this time. Otherwise, some
brief IFR cigs are possible in the DFW area but the better
potential for IFR will be to the south at Waco.

An increase in showers is expected Monday morning with isolated
thunderstorms possible as well. Have opted to introduce a brief
VCTS mention at Waco in the morning and the DFW area early in the
afternoon when the potential should be the highest at each
respective location. Otherwise, cigs should lift to VFR around
midday and remain VFR through the rest of the period.

-Stalley

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM CDT SUN AUG 21 2016/
It really is a tale of two worlds out there today, as our CWA has
effectively been bisected from northeast to southwest by an old
frontal boundary. To its northwest, skies today have been sunny
with temperatures rising into the mid and upper 80s and
dewpoints mixing into the 50s. The its southeast, low clouds,
showers, and mist have been prevalent, with most locations in the
70s. For the remainder of the afternoon and evening, slight chance
to chance PoPs will continue with the highest values (50%)
confined to roughly along and south of a Palestine to Killeen
line. Given the negligible buoyancy, showers should dominate, but
can`t rule out a few lightning strikes.

In response to increasing low-level southerlies tonight, moisture
will begin to migrate back northward. By tomorrow morning, clouds
should have made it up to and north of our Red River zones. As
this occurs, very weak isentropic ascent may be enough to
encourage the development of a few showers, but the anticipated
coverage means just 20-30% PoPs will suffice for now overnight.
As mentioned by the midnight shift, patchy fog may also develop
tonight as low-level warm advection impinges upon a cool and
moisture-laden surface layer. Recent SREF probabilities highlight
the most likely areas well, and have added patchy fog wording to
the grids south of a roughly Comanche to Palestine line overnight.
Farther to the north, dry air will be slower to retreat,
mitigating any fog/mist concerns.

Tomorrow`s forecast is a little unclear, thanks to limited
forcing for ascent. Very weak isentropic lifting will continue,
but the only other real forcing mechanisms appear to be a broad
confluence axis near the Red River and potentially a weak surface
low near the Texas Big Country. As a result, we`ve confined the
highest (40%) PoPs to near the Red River, our far western and far
southeastern zones. The atmospheric moisture content won`t be to
the levels we`ve seen recently, but a few heavy rainers will still
be possible.

With the best low-level moisture streaming out of our region on
Tuesday, confined mentionable precipitation chances to the Red
River counties and the far southeast to account for some potential
afternoon sea breeze activity. It appears most of the area will,
however, stay dry on Tuesday. We should also pick up a pretty
decent southerly breeze during the mid-morning and into the
afternoon hours as the pressure gradient tightens in response to
lee cyclogenesis over western Kansas. BUFKIT momentum transfer
values support some gusts in the 20-30 mph range.

The mid-level ridge looks to move a bit closer to our region on
Wednesday while the low-levels look to dry out temporarily as
well. At this time, Wednesday looks dry before some nocturnal
convection potentially drifts into our northwestern counties
overnight. Thursday and into the weekend will feature low
precipitation chances just about everywhere as another weak
frontal boundary potentially lays down near the Red River.

Carlaw

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    72  86  75  91  76 /  20  30  20  10   5
Waco                72  87  75  90  75 /  30  30  10  10   5
Paris               67  83  71  90  73 /  20  40  30  20   5
Denton              69  86  73  90  74 /  20  30  30  10   5
McKinney            69  85  74  90  75 /  20  30  30  10   5
Dallas              73  86  76  91  76 /  20  30  20  10   5
Terrell             72  86  74  90  75 /  30  30  20  10   5
Corsicana           72  87  75  91  74 /  30  30  10  10   5
Temple              71  87  74  90  74 /  30  40  10  10   5
Mineral Wells       69  85  72  90  73 /  20  30  30  10   5

&&

.FWD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

26/82



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