Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
FXUS64 KFWD 200552 AAC
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1152 PM CST Sun Feb 19 2017
Concerns...Potential for thunderstorms through 10z.
An area of widespread showers and thunderstoms was approaching
the I-35 corridor at TAF issuance time. This activity will move
northeast across the TAF sites from 06z through 10z with lingering
showers expected through 13-15z. Ceilings in the precipitation
should be mostly MVFR. South winds around 10 knots will shift to
the west 10-11z but will come back around the south by 15z. Expect
mostly VFR after 15z. Winds will shift to the northwest at around
10 knots with a front around 09z Tuesday.
Showers and thunderstorms continue to lift northeast and as the
upper level trough approaches, this area of showers and
thunderstorms should shift more to the east. There will remain a
chance of strong to severe thunderstorms mainly west of I-35 but
the biggest threat may change over a flood threat. Have sent an
update to adjust the timing and also to emphasize the potential
for locally heavy rain across the forecast area.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 PM CST Sun Feb 19 2017/
Water vapor imagery shows the strong upper low spreading across
northwest Mexico and into far West Texas this afternoon. Height
falls ahead of the system spreading across much of Texas are
indicative of increasing forcing for ascent. At the surface...a
rather expansive warm sector has developed this afternoon as cloud
cover has thinned and temperatures have warmed into the 70s and
lower 80s. An effective warm front appears to be positioned from
near Graham to Denton and tailing off to the southeast from there.
South of the boundary...surface based instability has increased
to between 1000-1500 J/kg over the last couple of hours. There is
still a rather strong capping inversion in place although 20Z
analysis across North Texas suggests that it is weakening. As
stronger forcing for ascent spreads a little farther east into the
early evening hours...would expect the cap to be completely
lifted allowing for surface based convection to develop. All of
the high resolution guidance suggests that this will happen in the
next 2-3 hours (5-6 pm).
Convective initiation will most likely occur to the northwest of
the Metroplex in an area of strong low level warm advection by 22Z.
At the surface...weak troughing is noted from near Lubbock
eastward to just north of Graham. This is where low level
convergence appears to be maximized. This initial activity should
develop in an area of moderate instability beneath steep mid level
lapse rates and strong deep layer shear and will pose the greatest
potential to become severe. Initial thunderstorms are likely to be
supercellular in nature with a large hail and perhaps a tornado
threat. Low level flow isn`t optimal for a more significant
tornado threat and the unidirectional wind profile suggests that
storms would tend to try to organize into line segments rather
quickly. However...low level flow may be backed near the warm
front resulting in a localized favorable shear profile for
tornadoes through this evening. This threat continues to be
highest from near Fort Worth and areas west of there across our
CWA (roughly an area from Eastland to Stephenville to Fort Worth
to Gainesville and northwest of there).
Later tonight in the 7-10pm timeframe...a more expansive area of
showers and thunderstorms is likely to develop across Southwest
Texas into Central Texas and will spread north into a linear MCS
around midnight. This should be the main area of precipitation
which will march east during the overnight hours. The severe
weather threat should diminish during this time with the loss of
heating and waning surface based instability...however...wind
fields will remain sufficiently strong for some isolated damaging
wind gusts with the strongest cells or bowing line segments. The
main threat during the overnight hours will be heavy rainfall.
Storms should be fairly efficient rainfall producers and will move
in a south to north motion...allowing for some localized training
of convection. It`s in these areas that some isolated rainfall
amounts could exceed 3 inches. Minor flooding issues would likely
result especially in low lying or urban areas. The heaviest
rainfall will likely occur across areas east of I-35 late tonight
into early Monday morning. At this time...given the progressive
nature of the upper low...we`ll hold off on a flash flood watch
across our area.
Precipitation is likely to continue across the eastern half of
the CWA during the morning hours on Monday before ending from west
to east around midday. There is not a substantial push of dry air
into the region behind this system...so low clouds may linger for
much of the day especially across the eastern half of the CWA.
Clouds should finally clear the region on Tuesday with
temperatures warming back up into the upper 70s and lower 80s
through mid week. A weak front will move through on Friday and
bring temps back down closer to normal but no additional
precipitation is expected.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 62 71 52 77 50 / 100 50 5 0 0
Waco 61 70 51 76 48 / 100 50 5 0 0
Paris 63 68 53 73 50 / 80 100 10 5 0
Denton 62 71 48 76 47 / 100 40 5 0 0
McKinney 62 70 50 75 48 / 100 60 10 0 0
Dallas 62 71 53 77 51 / 100 50 5 0 0
Terrell 63 71 52 76 50 / 100 70 10 0 0
Corsicana 63 70 54 75 52 / 100 70 10 5 0
Temple 62 72 51 77 48 / 100 40 5 0 0
Mineral Wells 57 74 47 77 46 / 100 10 5 0 0