Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 011625
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1125 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.AVIATION...
A WEAKENING UPPER LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL SEND A
SHORTWAVE EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT. NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS CURRENTLY RESIDE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF A COLD
FRONT...WHICH LEAVES US WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF AVAILABLE
MOISTURE AS THE SYSTEM PASSES OVERHEAD. STILL...THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH LIFT...AND SOME MEAGER LEVELS OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY...TO
GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS A A FEW ISOLATED STORMS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH SPARSE COVERAGE EXPECTED...WE WILL CONTINUE
TO INDICATE VCSH FROM LATE THIS EVENING TO EARLY MONDAY MORNING AT
ALL TAF SITES. IF FUTURE MODELS COME IN MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
DEVELOPMENT...WE WOULD LIKELY NEED TO INDICATE TS DURING A BRIEF
PORTION OF THE TAF FOR THE OVERNIGHT TIME PERIOD.
OTHERWISE...SURFACE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH FOR THE
DURATION OF THE FORECAST.

30

&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/
A VERY SUBTLE SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD EAST OF THE REGION TODAY
WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL INCREASE ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS
THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW OPENS UP AND LIFTS TOWARD THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THE BEST SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY TODAY WILL
RESIDE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA IN CENTRAL AND SOUTH TEXAS.
HOWEVER...MODELS DO INDICATE THAT THE SOUTHEAST ZONES WILL SEE
SOME SURFACE BASED CAPE BETWEEN 1000 AND 1500 J/KG BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...SO WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE POPS MENTIONED. THE SEVERE
POTENTIAL APPEARS FAIRLY LOW OVERALL...BUT IF ANY STORM WERE TO
APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS IT WOULD BE IN THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST LATE
THIS AFTERNOON.

RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE AREA WIDE TONIGHT WITH
INCREASING LARGE SCALE UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION. HOWEVER...THE
POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE BASED STORMS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AND
MONDAY AS A REINFORCEMENT OF DRY AND COOL AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE
NORTH WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS. THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH MID LEVEL INSTABILITY FOR ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH
LIGHTNING BEING THE PRIMARY HAZARD.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DECREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON MONDAY AS THE UPPER LOW TRANSLATES SLOWLY NORTHEAST
AS DEPTH OF THE DRY/COOL AIR INCREASES. THE COLD AIR ADVECTION
COUPLED WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER MONDAY WILL RESULT IN A COOL
DAY FOR EARLY MAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE 60S AND LOWER
70S.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE DRY WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND AS
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE AMPLIFIES OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. HIGHS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S WITH LOWS MAINLY
IN THE 50S.

THE AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL TRANSLATE EAST ON SATURDAY
WHILE A STRONG UPPER LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES. A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
WESTERN ZONES SATURDAY AFTERNOON/SATURDAY NIGHT WITH BETTER STORM
CHANCES EXPECTED BY NEXT SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THERE IS A VERY GOOD
CHANCE THAT THE UPPER LOW COULD REMAIN CUT OFF WEST OF THE REGION
FOR SEVERAL DAYS WHICH WOULD KEEP THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WEST OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS AS WE HEAD INTO THE SECOND WEEK OF
MAY.

79



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH    75  55  71  52  74 /   5  50  30   5   5
WACO                76  56  71  52  74 /  20  50  50  10   5
PARIS               75  53  69  51  71 /   5  50  20   5   5
DENTON              72  51  70  49  73 /   5  50  30   5   5
MCKINNEY            74  53  70  50  72 /   5  50  30   5   5
DALLAS              76  56  72  53  74 /   5  50  30   5   5
TERRELL             77  56  72  52  73 /  10  50  40  10   5
CORSICANA           78  58  73  53  73 /  20  50  50  10   5
TEMPLE              78  58  69  53  73 /  20  50  50  20   5
MINERAL WELLS       72  49  68  48  74 /  10  50  30   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

30/05



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