Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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000
FXUS64 KFWD 300733
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
233 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A DIFFLUENT NORTH FLOW PATTERN OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...BEFORE FLAT RIDGING ARRIVES
LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY FOR A BRIEF REPRIEVE IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION. CURRENTLY...AN ELEVATED 925MB-850MB FRONT
EXTENDED FROM NEAR THE I-20 CORRIDOR UP INTO SE OK/SW AR THIS
MORNING. A THETA-E AXIS BETWEEN 925MB-700MB WAS EXPECTED TO BE
SITUATED JUST OFF THE SE EDGE OF THE ELEVATED FRONT TODAY.

ONE LITTLE CLUSTER OF STRONG STORMS FROM MCKINNEY TO GREENVILLE
CONTINUE TO BE FED BY A 25-30 KT SSWLY LLJ AND WILL CONTINUE TO
MIGRATE SSW INTO THE RICHER THETA-E AIRMASS THROUGH SUNRISE.
CURRENT HIGH RES MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH ACTIVITY ONCE
AGAIN IN THE WEAK DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND WERE DEEMED PRETTY MUCH
UNUSABLE THIS MORNING. CURRENT CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER OUR NE COUNTIES
IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TOWARD SUNRISE AS CURRENT MODEST LLJ
WEAKENS. I WILL STILL CARRY 20-30 POPS GENERALLY ACROSS THE SE
HALF OF THE CWA TODAY AS NUMEROUS OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL
EXIST WITH FORCING FROM A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE ROTATING SE TOWARD THE
NW GULF OF MEXICO. WITH STRONG INSTABILITY AND HIGH THETA-E LAPSE
RATES EXPECTED...A FEW STRONG TO BRIEF SEVERE MICROBURSTS AND
VERY SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND MINOR
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO WEAK STEERING CURRENTS ALOFT AND
PROPAGATION DOMINATING STORM MOVEMENTS.

FOR TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...HAVE LINGERED SLIGHT CHANCES ACROSS
THE FAR SE COUNTIES WHERE THE RICHER MOISTURE WILL PERSIST FOR
ANOTHER DAY. A BRIEF DRY PERIOD WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING AS SOME ENHANCEMENT OF RIDGING ALOFT AND
RESULTANT SUBSIDENCE OCCUR. HOWEVER...THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH
WILL AMPLIFY ONCE AGAIN BY FRIDAY INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AS
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS MIGRATES WEST OUT OF THE AREA ONCE AGAIN.
THIS LONGWAVE PATTERN CHANGE WILL ALLOW PERIODIC NW FLOW SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES TO ROTATE SE ACROSS THE ARKLATEX AND BRING CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS PARTICULARLY AREAS NORTH OF I-20 AND
EAST OF I-35. IT IS HARD TO SAY HOW THIS WILL AFFECT JULY 4TH
FESTIVITIES...BUT THE WEATHER DEFINITELY BEARS WATCHING IF YOU
PLAN ON BEING OUTDOORS THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND TO WATCH AREA
FIREWORKS DISPLAYS. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL WITH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 90S THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

A SEASONABLY HOT AND DRY PERIOD LOOKS TO SET UP NEXT WEEK...AS
AMPLIFICATION OF THE LONGWAVE PATTERN DAMPENS WITH BROAD RIDGING
SETTING UP FROM THE SW STATES INTO THE CENTRAL GULF STATES. HIGHS
IN THE MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE 70S ARE EXPECTED WITH DRY
CONDITIONS.

05/

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1147 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/

FOR THE 06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST
CONCERN.

FOR TONIGHT...THINK THAT ALL AREA TAF SITES WILL REMAIN
THUNDERSTORM FREE...HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE
ACTIVITY NORTH OF THE RED RIVER THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
STORMS OVER MARSHALL AND BRYAN COUNTIES ARE MOVING SOUTH TOWARDS
AN AXIS OF LARGER POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY ACCORDING TO
CURRENT OBJECTIVE MESOSCALE ANALYSIS. THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY
ELEVATED IN NATURE...AND AS A RESULT IT IS DIFFICULT TO KNOW IF
THESE STORMS WILL HOLD TOGETHER WHILE MOVING SOUTH TONIGHT. THE
LACK OF DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR SHOULD FAVOR STORMS DISSIPATING
OVERNIGHT DESPITE THE RESERVOIR OF CAPE IN PLACE EAST OF THE
INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR. AS A RESULT...LEFT PRECIPITATION OUT OF
THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

FOR TOMORROW...FORECAST SOUNDINGS ONCE AGAIN INDICATE QUITE A BIT
OF CAPE/ENERGY FOR STORMS WITH LITTLE CAP IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION. WHILE THIS IS GENERALLY A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP...WE STILL NEED SOME LIFT TO CAUSE
THUNDERSTORMS TO INITIATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WITHOUT AN OBVIOUS
LIFTING MECHANISM...THINK THAT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE TOO SMALL
TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON AT THIS TIME. IF A
LIFTING MECHANISM BECOMES MORE APPARENT TOMORROW...THUNDERSTORMS
MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TO THE FORECAST.

ASSUMING STORMS REMAIN AWAY FROM AREA TAF SITES AS FORECAST...VFR
CONDITIONS AND SOUTHERLY FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED.

CAVANAUGH


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  95  76  95  76  94 /  20   5   5   5   5
WACO, TX              93  74  93  74  93 /  20  10   5   5   5
PARIS, TX             92  73  92  75  91 /  20  10  10   5   5
DENTON, TX            95  74  94  75  93 /  20   5   5   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          93  74  94  75  93 /  20   5   5   5   5
DALLAS, TX            95  77  95  77  94 /  20   5   5   5   5
TERRELL, TX           93  74  93  75  92 /  20  10   5   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         92  74  93  74  92 /  30  10  10   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            91  72  92  72  91 /  20  20  10   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     94  72  95  73  92 /  10   5   5   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

/05



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