Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 190434
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1134 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.AVIATION...
PRECIPITATION HAS ALL BUT ENDED ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THIS EVENING
FOLLOWING SEVERAL HOURS OF DECREASING SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF
IFR DEVELOPMENT IN THE WACO AREA WHERE LIGHT WINDS...RECENT RAINS
AND COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RESIDE. MOST NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE DROPS KACT INTO IFR RANGE BETWEEN 06 AND 09Z...AND THE
LATEST TAF WILL NOT VENTURE TOO FAR FROM THOSE NUMBERS.
CONDITIONS SHOULD NOT BE QUITE AS BLEAK IN THE DALLAS-FORT WORTH
AREA WHERE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR HAS WORKED ITS WAY IN FROM THE
NORTHEAST. WE WILL INDICATE MVFR CIGS FROM JUST PRIOR TO
SUNRISE...CONTINUING THROUGH MID DAY...WITH VFR EXPECTED
THEREAFTER.

AS FAR AS CONVECTION IS CONCERNED...IT APPEARS THE BRUNT OF THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE SHUNTED FARTHER
SOUTHWEST AND AWAY FROM AREA TAFS...AND ANY POSSIBLE CONVECTION
WOULD LIKELY BE TOO ISOLATED TO MENTION IN THIS SET OF FORECASTS.
OTHERWISE...LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED AT ALL
LOCATIONS.

30

&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014/
MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING WILL BE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING...MAINLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. SURFACE ANALYSIS FROM EARLIER THIS
MORNING INDICATED TWO DISTINCT BOUNDARIES ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. THE
FIRST WAS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM CONVECTION ACROSS OKLAHOMA
WHICH HAS SINCE MOVED TOWARD THE METROPLEX AND HELPED FIRE OFF
SOME SPOTTY THUNDERSTORMS FROM DENTON SOUTHEAST TO CANTON. THIS
ACTIVITY IS ON A DOWNWARD TREND WITH SUBSTANTIAL OUTFLOW SPREADING
SOUTH OUT OF THEM. THE SECOND BOUNDARY IS A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH
FROM NEAR COMANCHE TO WACO AND SOUTHEAST OF THERE. THIS APPEARS TO
BE THE MORE SIGNIFICANT OF THE TWO BOUNDARIES AND IS ACTUALLY
REFLECTED WEAKLY AT 850MB AND 700MB. WEAK FRONTOGENETIC FORCING IN
THIS VERY MOIST UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT HAS RESULTED IN MORE NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

THE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING...ALTHOUGH SMALLER CLUSTERS WILL TEND
TO WEAKLY ORGANIZE AND MOVE FASTER THAN SURROUNDING STORMS. THIS
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME AREAS PICKING UP SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNTS OF
RAINFALL IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...AND OTHERS MISSING THE BULK
OF THE PRECIPITATION. DESPITE THIS...THE THREAT FOR AT LEAST
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE SAME AREA BUT WE HAVE EXTENDED IT UNTIL
MIDNIGHT WHEN MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN.

THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL FEATURE MORE SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA. ON FRIDAY...THE REMNANT UPPER
CIRCULATION OF HURRICANE ODILE WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS WEST TEXAS.
THIS WILL KEEP THE BEST FORCING ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES
THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. ANOTHER FLARE UP OF CONVECTION MAY
OCCUR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE
UPPER LOW WHICH WILL SLOWLY DRIFT INTO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA. WILL
HAVE SOME HIGHER POPS DURING THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...WILL MAINTAIN
SOME LOW POPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AMPLE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE.

DUNN



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  73  91  74  92  74 /  10  20  10  30  20
WACO, TX              70  89  72  91  73 /  40  30  20  30  20
PARIS, TX             68  89  70  90  70 /  10  10  10  20  20
DENTON, TX            70  90  71  91  72 /  10  10  10  40  30
MCKINNEY, TX          69  90  69  90  72 /  10  10  10  20  20
DALLAS, TX            73  90  74  91  74 /  10  20  10  30  20
TERRELL, TX           70  89  71  91  72 /  10  10  10  20  20
CORSICANA, TX         71  90  71  91  72 /  10  20  10  30  20
TEMPLE, TX            70  88  72  90  72 /  70  40  20  30  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     70  89  72  88  71 /  20  30  20  50  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





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