Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KFWD 272310
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
610 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR WITH GENERALLY LIGHT S/SE WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME HIGH
CIRRUS AND AFTERNOON CUMULUS IS POSSIBLE...OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WILL PREVAIL. ANY MVFR STRATUS TUESDAY MORNING SHOULD STAY
SOUTHEAST OF WACO TAF SITE. TR.92


&&

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK
BEFORE A SLIGHT COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATTER
PORTION OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEKEND.
LATER THIS WEEK...A WEAK COLD FRONT SLIDES INTO THE REGION ALONG
WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
MILD OVERNIGHT READINGS WILL CONTINUE AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY SETTLES IN ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
DIURNAL MIXING COMBINED WITH SOME WEAK DRY AIR ADVECTION SHOULD
ACTUALLY HELP KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER...WHILE
HOT DAYTIME /ALBEIT LESS HUMID/ CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.

TUESDAY...DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 90S AND UP TO 101 DEGREES ACROSS WESTERN ZONES WHERE THE
LOWER TROPOSPHERE WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY DRIER/MORE WELL MIXED. HEAT
INDEX VALUES ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 99/100 DEGREES OUT
WEST TO UP TO 104 DEGREES ACROSS NORTHEASTERN AND EASTERN ZONES. A
FEW SITES ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA /NEAR
SHERMAN...BONHAM...AND PARIS/ MAY EVEN FLIRT WITH HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA...BUT FOR NOW WILL HIGHLIGHT THE HIGH HEAT INDEX VALUES
WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT ACROSS THESE AREAS.
REGARDLESS...INDIVIDUALS ACROSS ALL OF NORTH/CENTRAL TEXAS ARE
URGED TO LIMIT STRENUOUS OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES TO THE EARLY MORNING
OR LATE EVENING HOURS...AS WELL AS REMAIN HYDRATED WITH PLENTY OF
WATER.

WEDNESDAY...WEDNESDAY MORNING LOW TEMPS SHOULD CONTINUE TO REMAIN
A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW PREVIOUS NIGHTS WITH THE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR
IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD SOAR UP INTO THE
UPPER 90S AND AROUND 101/102 DEGREES YET AGAIN AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES IN ACROSS EASTERN OK/WESTERN AR. THE GREATER SUBSIDENCE
COMBINED WITH DAYTIME MIXING SHOULD RESULT IN LOWER HEAT INDEX
VALUES BELOW 101/104 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. IF THE
AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN REMAINS HIGHER THAN
CURRENT THINKING ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE
WARRANTED FOR AREAS EAST OF THE I-35/35E AND ALONG/NORTH OF THE
I-30 CORRIDOR.

FOR THURSDAY...THE RIDGE PARKED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SHOULD
GRADUALLY RETROGRADE AS THE FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND EVENTUALLY SLIGHTLY MERIDIONAL. THIS SHOULD
SEND A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS DOWN THROUGH THE
OZARKS AND WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND A FEW CHANCES AT PRECIPITATION. THE INCREASED LOW/MID LEVEL
MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES /ESPECIALLY
WITH A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD DIURNAL CUMULUS/ THAN THE FIRST PORTION
OF THE WEEK...BUT HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RETURN TO NEAR HEAT
ADVISORY LEVELS...MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN ZONES. HIGH TEMPERATURES
AREA WIDE SHOULD MAINLY CLIMB INTO THE MID/UPPER 90S WITH A FEW
100 DEGREE READINGS...ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS. CONTINUED WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS EASTERN ZONES WHERE THE WEAKEST
SUBSIDENCE AND BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RESIDE AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING BACKDOOR COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
FRIDAY AND BEYOND...RAIN CHANCES INCREASE SLIGHTLY ON FRIDAY AS
THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK TROUGH
/AS EVIDENCE BY 500MB HEIGHT FALLS/ SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE AREA AND
WILL RESULT IN SOME SOME LIFT FOR PRECIPITATION. RIGHT
NOW...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT ACTIVITY WILL NOT BE WIDESPREAD IN
NATURE...SO WILL HOLD ON TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS /20-30 PERCENT/
ACROSS ALL OF THE CWA. THE ECMWF REMAINS THE AGGRESSOR WITH
REGARDS TO PRECIP CHANCES...BUT AM NOT TOO CONFIDENT ON THIS
SOLUTION DUE TO THE LACK OF STRONG FORCING AND EXPECTATION THAT
THE BAROCLINICITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL DIMINISH WITH
TIME. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR MODEL TRENDS TO DETERMINE IF AN
INCREASE IN POPS IS WARRANTED. THE ECMWF DOES APPEAR TO BE A TAD
SLOWER WITH SCOURING ALL OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OUT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND THIS DOES SEEM FEASIBLE GIVEN THE TENDENCY FOR FAIRLY
WEAK THERMAL/MOISTURE ADVECTION THAT TYPICAL OCCURS ACROSS
NORTH/CENTRAL TEXAS DURING THE SUMMERTIME. DRIER AIR DOES APPEAR
TO FILTER IN TOWARDS THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN MORE "PLEASANT CONDITIONS" FOR THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE EARLY PORTION
OF NEXT WEEK WILL LIKELY REBOUND BACK INTO THE UPPER 90S AND
100-102 DEGREE RANGE.

BAIN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  77 100  77 100  80 /   0   0   0   5   5
WACO, TX              77  99  75  99  75 /  10   5   5   0   0
PARIS, TX             77  98  74  99  76 /   5   0   0   5   5
DENTON, TX            73 100  74  99  75 /   0   0   0   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          75  99  75 100  77 /   5   0   0   5   5
DALLAS, TX            80 100  80 101  80 /   0   0   0   5   5
TERRELL, TX           75  98  74 100  75 /   5   5   5   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         76  98  76  99  76 /   5   5   5   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            74  98  73  98  75 /  10   5   5   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     74  99  73  99  74 /   0   0   0   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.