Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 242354
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
654 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.AVIATION...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms formed late afternoon
northeast of a KRPH to KMKN line. These storms have remained
elevated and have weakened as they moved northeast toward the
I-35 corridor. Have kept VCTS with a TEMPO TSRA for the 00-02z
period in the Metroplex TAFS. Otherwise expect ceilings in the
Metroplex to lower to MVFR 06-08z. Ceilings should then remain
mostly MVFR through early to mid Wednesday afternoon before
improving to VFR. South winds 12 to 15 knots will prevail through
the period with some gusts over 20 knots possible late Wednesday
morning through the afternoon.

At Waco...expect VFR ceilings to lower to MVFR by 06z and hold in
through early afternoon with an improvement to VFR thereafter.
No thunderstorms are expected through this period at Waco with
south winds 12 to 15 knots expected to prevail.


58

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016/
Water vapor loops and upper air analysis reveal a broad diffluent
pattern in place across the region this afternoon. At the
surface, deep southerly flow continues, which has helped keep low
stratus plentiful today amidst surface dewpoints in the upper 60s
and lower 70s. The main challenge for tonight revolves around
precip chances over parts of of the CWA as a weak/subtle impulse
grazes the region. Recent HRRR solutions have tended to back off
on any real noteworthy convection overnight, and it does appear
that the lack of appreciable forcing will significantly limit our
chances of convection tonight.

For Wednesday, all indications point to the atmosphere becoming
increasingly capped as very steep lapse rates continue to overtop
the very rich low-level airmass. Forecast soundings tomorrow show
impressive MLCAPE values on the order of 3000-4000 J/Kg, but with
very little large scale forcing for ascent present, do think most
of the area will remain dry. Several CAMs, including the Texas
Tech WRF, members of the NCAR Ensemble, and the 4 km NAM develop
isolated storms near the Red River during the afternoon, but
development will likely remain tied to any subtle boundaries that
might set up from earlier convection. Again, any storms that
develop in such a buoyant airmass would pose a risk for hail and
damaging winds, but do think this risk is low at this time.

On Thursday, a potent upper low will begin to slide across the
desert Southwest. Out ahead of this system, models have
consistently shown a lead shortwave exiting out of the high
terrain of Mexico during the overnight hours on Wednesday/Thursday
morning. Depending on the timing of this impulse, showers and
storms could develop early on Thursday morning and overspread the
region, tempering the subsequent severe weather threat. In
addition, wind profiles do not look particularly robust at this
time. Given the presence of very deep moisture (PWAT values near
+2SD from normal) heavy rainfall will be a threat Thursday and
especially Friday as the main trough axis moves into the region
which may lead to flooding concerns. Shear profiles should improve
on Friday as winds increase ahead of the main trough axis, which
could foster a somewhat better environment for severe storms.

We may get a temporary reprieve from the widespread rainfall on
Saturday as weak shortwave ridging/height rises move into the
region, but expect renewed chances of rainfall into early next
week as broad troughing and multiple impluses make a run at our
region.

Carlaw

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    74  88  75  84  71 /  30  10  20  50  60
Waco                74  89  75  83  71 /  20  10  30  60  60
Paris               71  86  71  82  69 /  30  20  10  50  50
Denton              72  88  72  84  70 /  30  10  10  50  60
McKinney            72  86  73  83  70 /  30  10  10  50  60
Dallas              74  89  76  84  71 /  30  10  20  50  60
Terrell             73  87  73  82  71 /  30  10  20  50  50
Corsicana           73  89  74  83  71 /  20  10  30  50  50
Temple              73  88  74  82  71 /  20  10  30  60  60
Mineral Wells       73  89  72  85  69 /  20  10  20  50  60

&&

.FWD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

58/79



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