Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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715
FXUS64 KFWD 201150 AAA
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
650 AM CDT WED JUL 20 2016

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFs/

VFR conditions will prevail. Scattered stratocu across the Hill
Country may drift into the Waco area this morning, but these
clouds (FL020-030) would be FEW/SCT. Daytime CU will develop again
today, but with increasing subsidence, these clouds will be less
likely to become congested. Any convection should remain confined
to East Texas. The persistence forecast will continue the
remainder of the week.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 235 AM CDT WED JUL 20 2016/
A stagnant and quiet weather pattern is expected the rest of this week
into the weekend, as a broad ridge of high pressure remains centered
over the south-central CONUS. The resulting subsidence from the
strengthening upper high should result in temperatures pushing the
century mark for the first time this summer across much of the
area. We cannot rule out a few late day showers through nightfall
across our far eastern counties where better column moisture
exists with PWATs approaching 2 inches. However, most areas will
just be hot and dry which is typical for late July.

In addition to the triple digit temperatures occurring through the
weekend, areas east of the I-35/35E corridors will hold on to
higher dew point temperatures and see afternoon heat index values
rise around 105 degrees each afternoon. A heat advisory may be
needed for our eastern counties after today through this weekend.
We will forego issuing a heat advisory on this package and allow
the day crew to further assess both ambient and dew point temperatures
from the 12Z model runs later this morning.

A strong shortwave disturbance moving east across the Northern
Plains and Great Lakes region early next week is forecast to
weaken the upper high and shift its center back west over the
Rockies and southwest U.S. This transition combined with
increasing southerly low level flow will increase column moisture
across much of the area. With subsidence weakening across our
eastern counties, I will continue to maintain low diurnal
convective chances for areas along and east of I-35/I-35W
corridors early next week. Medium range models are not in complete
agreement on how far west the upper high moves or how much it
weakens over our area. Low rain chances will suffice for now and
should have better confidence with surface and upper level
parameters as we near that time frame.

05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    98  80 100  80 101 /   5   0   0   0   0
Waco                98  78 101  78 100 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               97  77 100  77 101 /  10   5   5   0   5
Denton              97  76  99  76 100 /   5   0   0   0   0
McKinney            97  77  99  77 100 /   5   0   0   0   0
Dallas              98  80 100  80 101 /   5   0   0   0   0
Terrell             97  77  99  77 100 /   5   0   5   0   0
Corsicana           97  77  99  78 100 /   5   0   5   0   5
Temple              98  76 100  76 100 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       97  75 100  75 100 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

25/05



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