Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 201958
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
258 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A WARM AND BREEZY DAY IS IN PROGRESS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WITH
CONSIDERABLY LESS CONVECTION AROUND AS THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE EAST
NOSES INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 90S WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH. WIDESPREAD SEA BREEZE
CONVECTION IS OCCURRING ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA AND
MOST OF THIS WILL REMAIN OUT OF OUR AREA...BUT WILL HAVE SOME LOW
POPS THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES IN
CASE A STORM OR TWO MOVES INTO THE AREA.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN A BIT BY THURSDAY BUT STILL BE
CENTERED EAST OF TEXAS ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA. SEA BREEZE
ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTH SHOULD DIMINISH A BIT IN COVERAGE THURSDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...SO THE FORECAST ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WILL
REMAIN DRY. WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE IS CLOSE...IT IS NOT OVERLY
STRONG AND PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES
FROM GETTING TOO HOT. HIGHS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WILL
TYPICALLY BE IN THE UPPER 90S TO 100. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN
DOESNT APPEAR TO OCCUR UNTIL SOMETIME NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL WEAKEN A BIT BY TUESDAY AS A STRONG TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW A PLUME OF MOISTURE TO SPREAD
NORTH OUT OF THE GULF ACROSS THE REGION. SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY SHOULD ONCE AGAIN INCREASE WITH SOME SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
RAIN IN THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES THROUGH MIDWEEK. MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR A TROPICAL SYSTEM TO DEVELOP
NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN OR WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE STRENGTH
OF BOTH THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND THE TROUGH MOVING
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON ANY
POTENTIAL TRACK THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.

DUNN

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1153 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/
NO MAJOR AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH VFR
CONDITIONS AND A SOUTH WIND BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KNOTS. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN EXITING MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL REMAIN NORTH OF ALL NORTH TEXAS TAF SITES. A FEW ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS/STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SEA BREEZE MOVES
NORTHWARD. ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD
STAY SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF WACO.

A 30 TO 35 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AS SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...RESULTING IN AN
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. SOME MVFR CEILINGS BETWEEN 1500
AND 2500 FT WILL MOST LIKELY REACH WACO AROUND SUNRISE AND MAY
BRIEFLY AFFECT THE METROPLEX TAF SITES BETWEEN 15 AND 17Z
THURSDAY.

79

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  78  98  77  99  77 /   5   5   0   0   0
WACO, TX              77  99  77  98  75 /   5   5   5   5   5
PARIS, TX             74  95  72  98  74 /   5   5   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            77  97  76  98  75 /   5   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          76  97  75  98  75 /   5   5   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            77  97  76  98  78 /   5   5   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           77  98  74  97  75 /   5   5   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         77  97  76  97  74 /   5   5   5   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            76  99  75  97  73 /   5   5   5   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     76  99  73  99  73 /   5   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




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