Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 221751
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1251 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT TAF SITES ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS FOR THE 18Z TAF CYCLE.

FOR THE METROPLEX TAFS....E TO SE BREEZES SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE TAF CYCLE AS HIGH PRESSURE IS SITUATED
ACROSS THE MIDWEST. AREAS OF VFR CU WILL CONTINUE ALONG A SMALL
TONGUE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PER MORNING ANALYSIS. A FEW PERIODS OF BKN
VFR CU AND GUSTY WINDS UP TO 15-18 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH DAILY MIXING. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD SWING ACROSS
NORTH TX OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH BEGINNING AROUND
MIDNIGHT DUE TO SUFFICIENT LIFT BUT WILL LEAVE OUT THUNDER AS
INSTABILITY APPEARS MARGINAL. GUSTY WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY ANY VCSH
OR -SHRA DUE TO THE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ALOFT.

FOR THE WACO TAFS...E TO ESE FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL
TEXAS WITH AREAS OF SCATTERED CU THIS AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION AND WITH A BULK OF THE
FORCING CLOSER TO THE I-20 CORRIDOR...HAVE LEFT OUT THE MENTION OF
ANY VICINITY PRECIP. MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AND RELATIVELY STRONGER
BREEZES SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE THE DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR
BR/FG OVERNIGHT.

15-BAIN

&&

.UPDATE...
RADAR ECHOES WITH BAND OF MID CLOUDS IN WESTERN NORTH TEXAS IS
LIKELY VIRGA. ALTHOUGH THE DRY AIR BENEATH THIS WEAK LIFT IS LESS
FORMIDABLE ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR...DO NOT EXPECT THAT ANY DROPS
WILL REACH THE GROUND TO THE EAST OF CURRENT ECHOES.

ONGOING ACTIVITY IN WEST TEXAS WILL IMPACT NORTHWEST TEXAS AND
SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON. SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MAY
SLIP INTO FAR WESTERN ZONES...BUT THUNDER SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR
WEST...CLOSER TO AN UPPER DISTURBANCE EJECTING INTO OKLAHOMA. AS
THE FLOW VEERS THIS EVENING...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY WORK
THEIR WAY FARTHER EAST...POTENTIALLY IMPACTING AREAS NORTH OF THE
I-20 CORRIDOR LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. ONLY WEAK
INSTABILITY IN THE MID-LEVELS MEANS SHOWERS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
CONVECTIVE MODE...AND THE MEAGER LIFT SHOULD LIMIT THE COVERAGE.

REMOVED MORNING FOG AND MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY
TEMPERATURES. AFTERNOON HIGHS REMAIN UNCHANGED.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/
HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
TODAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THESE CLOUDS
SHOULD LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING FOR MOST OF THE REGION
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE EASTERN ZONES WHERE SOME PATCHY FOG IS
POSSIBLE THROUGH MID MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
APPROACHING TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES TODAY. RAIN CHANCES
WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...MEAGER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT
SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT OVERALL. THEREFORE...WE WILL KEEP ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MENTIONED ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH
TONIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING.

THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS
RIDGE WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR AND WARM CONDITIONS TO NORTH TEXAS
ON THE WEEKEND. AFTERNOON HIGHS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 50S AND 60S.

THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ACTIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
THE RIDGE BUILDING TOWARD THE EAST COAST AND A PROGRESSIVE TROUGH
DEVELOPING IN THE WEST. THE GULF WILL FINALLY FULLY OPEN UP EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH DEEP LEE TROUGHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL LIFT FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TO THE GREAT LAKES
TUESDAY AND ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT IN NORTH TEXAS
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING WARM AIR
FROM THE MEXICAN PLATEAU WHICH WILL MOST LIKELY KEEP A STOUT CAP
IN PLACE. FOR NOW WE WILL INCLUDE ONLY 20 PERCENT POPS IN THE FORECAST
ON TUESDAY.

79



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  82  61  80  62  83 /   0  10  20  10  10
WACO, TX              83  57  82  56  84 /   5   5  10  10  10
PARIS, TX             78  53  74  55  79 /   0  10  20  10  10
DENTON, TX            82  57  80  58  83 /   5  20  20  10  10
MCKINNEY, TX          80  55  80  55  84 /   0  20  20  10  10
DALLAS, TX            81  61  80  63  82 /   0  10  20  10  10
TERRELL, TX           80  56  80  56  82 /   0  10  20  10  10
CORSICANA, TX         81  57  80  58  84 /   0   5  10  10  10
TEMPLE, TX            84  57  80  56  84 /  10   5  10  10  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     82  58  80  57  87 /  10  20  20  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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