Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 202049
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
349 PM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017

.SHORT TERM...
/Now through Wednesday/

Quiet weather is expected through the period with minor
influences already being seen from Tropical Storm Cindy which is
over the central Gulf of Mexico. Scattered clouds will continue
through this evening before becoming mostly clear through early
tonight. Some drier air is being wrapped into North Texas from the
northeast given the broad flow around the tropical system in the
Gulf. This is expected to continue through the night into
Wednesday and will result in lower dewpoints and slightly more
comfortable air. Temperatures tonight will fall into the upper 60s
and lower 70s.

On Wednesday, we should start to see an increase in high cloud
cover from the east as Cindy gets closer to the Texas coast. Most
of the heavy rainfall associated with this system has remained to
the north and east of the center, but most of the guidance
suggests that convection will begin to expand on the western side
through the day Wednesday. If this occurs, then we could see some
bands move into southeast Texas tomorrow afternoon. Most of this
activity should stay out of our area until later tomorrow night
and Thursday. High temperatures on Wednesday will still be warm
with readings in the low to mid 90s. Areas east of I-35 where a
little more cloud cover will be present may linger in the upper
80s.

Dunn

&&

.LONG TERM...
/Wednesday Night through Monday/

Wednesday Night into Thursday---Rain chances will gradually
increase through the late evening hours on Wednesday and into the
day Thursday as T.S. Cindy churns towards the SE Texas coast. The
PoP/Wx forecast will be tied closely to the track of T.S. Cindy
and will highly variable, even with slight changes in the track. A
track closer to that of the 12 UTC GFS guidance would keep T.S.
Cindy closer towards the Sabine River Valley, offering little
chances for widespread rainfall across even the eastern third of
North and Central TX. A track closer to that of 00 and 12 UTC runs
of ECMWF would mean a slightly better threat for showers and
thunderstorms out across roughly the eastern third of North and
Central TX. The outlying solution, the 12 UTC NAM, would yield
even a greater coverage of rain across the area. Based on the
latest satellite imagery, however, T.S. Cindy continues to
struggle as 24 hour shear tendency coupled with copious amounts of
dry air continue to impinge across western sides of the tropical
cyclone. Unless convection can develop (which is still a
possibility), it`s unlikely that the cyclone will have the ability
to shield itself from the negative factors of shear and dry air.
Again, this will be monitored closely. At this time, I prefer a
blend of the GFS/ECMWF track which warrants likely PoPs across a
small sliver of our eastern counties. This track is also in good
agreement with some of the latest hi-res guidance that continues
to trickle in this afternoon.

With the above uncertainty regarding the track of T.S. Cindy,
I`ve only made a few modifications to the inherited PoPs late
Wednesday into Thursday. While I do have confidence that portions
of East TX will see some rain (with likely PoPs forecast), there`s
still too much uncertainty (and a very tight gradient rain
chances) to warrant any widespread Flood/Flash Flood concerns. 1,
3 and 6 hour RFC-derived flash flood guidance values at this time
are quite high, especially across the areas with highest PoPs and
thus we do not feel to need to post any Flash Flood Watches just
yet. Nevertheless, we will monitor the flood potential across
these areas. The most likely area for heavy rain will be across
locales east of a Corsicana to Centerville line. Again, widespread
flash flooding is NOT expected at this time, but some areas could
see total rainfall amounts on the order of 2 to 4 inches. As it
stands right now, a few areas east of a Centerville to Palestine
to Athens line could see total rainfall amounts of closer to 5
inches. Most of this rainfall should occur over a 1 to 2 day time
period which should also mitigate the potential for widespread
flash flooding.

Finally, northeasterly winds of 10 to 20 MPH with perhaps some
gusts to near 30 MPH can be expected as the wind field around T.S.
Cindy should support at least some momentum transfer of stronger
850-925mb flow down towards the surface.

For Friday and Saturday---Rain chances will linger into the day
on Friday as the remains of T.S. Cindy slowly lift northward
towards the Ark-La-Tex. The shrinking wind/pressure field
associated with the weakening of the system should confine the
areal coverage of showers/storms across far east TX with mostly
precipitation-free conditions elsewhere. With this in mind, Friday
will be hot for the western two-thirds of North and Central TX
with high temperatures climbing into the mid to upper 90s. Farther
east beneath what should be a lingering cloud/precip shield,
temperatures may only climb into the low to mid 80s.

Rain chances will ramp back up late Friday into Saturday as a
cold front tries to approach from the north. Previous forecasts
noted the aggressiveness of the GFS with a potential FROPA as
early as Saturday morning, but given the time of year and weak
steering flow aloft, this appears unlikely. The ECMWF, however,
appears to offer a much more reasonable solution with regards to
the motion of the early summer frontal boundary and advertises
FROPA on Sunday. More on this below. One potential that we will
have to monitor, however, will be whether or not convection
develops upstream and tries to drift southward towards the Red
River. At this time, the probability appears low, but I`ll
maintain a mention of low-end rain chances along the Red River
late Friday into Saturday. Outside of any diurnally-driven
convection, it`s possible that the Saturday forecast may need to
be re-examined to lower PoPs, especially if the remains of T.S.
Cindy exit the area and/or no MCS develops to the north.

For Sunday and Beyond---The best rain/storm chances for the
weekend appears late Saturday and into the day on Sunday per the
12 UTC ECMWF. As noted above, the weak steering flow coupled with
the time of year should limit the overall progression of
southward-surging cold front. It appears that enough push in the
wake of a broad upper trough across the Great Lakes will prove
sufficient enough to nudge a front southward. Furthermore, if any
convection develops along the front, it`s possible that the
front`s progression is aided by the development of a cold pool. At
this time, it`s far too early to delve into the mesoscale
specifics, but we will monitor this potential and so I`ll keep
PoPs broad- brushed. Low rain chances continue into the early part
of next week with perhaps a drying trend towards the middle of
next week.

24-Bain

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 641 AM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017/
A subtle frontal layer beneath 850 MB has been just enough to
generate patchy stratus across the Metroplex this morning. Cloud
bases at DFW and surrounding sites should remain mostly
scattered, but feel that brief periods of BKN warrants a TEMPO
group for MVFR ceilings between now and 15Z. Will monitor the KACT
site, but current trends and the most recent guidance suggest
that conditions will remain VFR. Boundary layer mixing should
bring an end to the occasional cigs in the DFW area by midday.
Drier air will eventually advect in from the east and northeast
later today, which should keep conditions VFR for the rest of the
forecast period.

30

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    72  93  74  92  76 /   0   0   0  20  10
Waco                69  92  74  91  74 /   0   0   5  20  10
Paris               68  90  73  87  73 /   0   0  20  30  30
Denton              68  92  73  92  73 /   0   0   0  10  10
McKinney            68  92  73  87  74 /   0   0   5  20  10
Dallas              74  93  75  90  76 /   0   0   0  20  10
Terrell             70  91  74  86  74 /   0   0  10  40  30
Corsicana           70  90  74  84  75 /   0   5  20  40  30
Temple              70  93  74  92  73 /   0   0   5  20  10
Mineral Wells       67  94  71  93  71 /   0   0   0   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$



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