Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48
000
FXUS64 KFWD 281205 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
705 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...WIND SHIFT AND CEILINGS.

SHOWERS/STORMS...
PREFRONTAL ACTIVITY WAS NEAR METROPLEX TAF SITES DURING THE
PREDAWN HOURS...BUT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF TAF SITES.

WIND SHIFT...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS ON THE DOORSTEP OF METROPLEX TAF
SITES. A SURFACE LOW EMBEDDED ON THE BOUNDARY JUST WEST OF FORT
WORTH IS IMPEDING THE PROGRESS OF THE FRONT...BUT WINDS WILL
STEADILY VEER TO THE NORTH THROUGH MID MORNING.

CEILINGS...
MAINLY VFR CEILINGS BEHIND THE SURFACE BOUNDARY HAVE BEGUN
SPILLING SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER...AND THIS CLOUD BANK SHOULD
EXPAND IN AREAL COVERAGE AS THE FRONT LIFTS AN INCREASINGLY HUMID
SURFACE LAYER. CEILINGS MAY BRIEFLY DIP BELOW 3000FT LATER THIS
MORNING.

WACO...
THE COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL BEGIN SLOWING DOWN AFTER DAYBREAK...
WILL TAKE THE BETTER PART OF THE DAY TO REACH WACO. MVFR CEILINGS
HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT LOW CEILINGS WILL
BE PRIMARILY VFR THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE
PRIMARILY EAST OF WACO THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014/
A STRONG SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LARGER SCALE UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE CENTRAL U.S WILL SWING INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
THIS MORNING AND PULL A COLD FRONT THROUGH MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS.
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO START TO SLOW...IF NOT STALL OVER
OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES BY THIS EVENING. ENOUGH ENERGY WILL
GRAZE THE NORTHEAST HALF OR SO OF THE AREA FOR LOW CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND NON-SEVERE STORMS...WITH BEST CHANCES OCCURRING ACROSS
OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES THROUGH TONIGHT. A STRONG STORM OR TWO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNSET AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT WHERE HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S WILL LEND TO
SBCAPE VALUES AT OR LITTLE ABOVE 1200 J/KG...STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES TO 7 DEG C/KM AND MODEST WESTERLY BULK SHEAR 25-30 KTS. IT
WOULD NOT SURPRISE ME TO SEE SOME VERY SMALL HAIL AND LOCALIZED
GUSTY WINDS WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS THROUGH NIGHTFALL. BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT...GUSTY NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH WILL
HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN IN THE 70S WITH WINDS DECOUPLING AND
SETTLING BELOW 10 MPH TONIGHT.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH JUST SOUTH OR LINGER NEAR OUR FAR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS WEAK COLD ADVECTION
CONTINUES IN WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE MOVING TOWARD THE
OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. EVEN SO...THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH
ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN AND NEAR THE IMMEDIATE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO
MAINTAIN LOW RAIN CHANCES BASICALLY SOUTHEAST OF AN ATHENS TO
TEMPLE LINE. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS
DOWN THAT WAY WILL AVERAGE BETWEEN 0.10-0.25 INCHES. WE HIT A
BRIEF LULL IN DISTURBANCES WED NIGHT WITH A DRY...BUT COOL
FORECAST IN STORE FOR THE AREA. HEIGHT FALLS WILL OCCUR THURSDAY
IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE STALLED FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
LIFT BACK NORTH ACROSS THOSE AREAS WEST OF I-35/35W AND HAVE
MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCES ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES...THOUGH DO
NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL BEING THAT MOISTURE IS
RATHER MEAGER. WE WILL SEE ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD ADVECTION. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN NEAR SEASONAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY ALONG WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE.

A SLIGHT WARM UP WITH DRY CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND AS
THE LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST AWAY FROM THE AREA WITH AN
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN. HOWEVER...THE STRENGTH OF THE SECONDARY
SURGE ARRIVING LATE WEEK WILL KEEP A COOLER AND DRY NORTHEAST TO
EAST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. LOOK FOR COOL STARTS TO EACH DAY
STARTING IN THE 50S THEN WARMING NICELY BACK INTO THE 70S EACH
AFTERNOON. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST TOWARD THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND ANOTHER
FULL MERIDIONAL UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.S BEGINS APPROACHING
THE AREA AND INDUCING WARM ADVECTION. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK ON A STRONG SHORTWAVE ROTATING
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AND OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING TO THE AREA. THERE ARE SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES WITH THE MID LEVEL ENERGY AND SURFACE COLD FRONT. AS
SUCH...WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES LOW UNTIL THE DETAILS WORK THEMSELVES
OUT.

05/

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
WE CONTINUE TO WATCH A LONG-AWAITED COLD FRONT NOW APPROACHING OUR
FAR NORTHWEST COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING. A WEAK PRE-FRONTAL
SURFACE LOW WAS OVER GRAHAM WITH THE TRUE COLD FRONT AND COOLER
AIR ALONG A LINE FROM SNYDER...TO VERNON...TO TULSA OKLAHOMA. A
STRONG UPPER LOW WAS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER
MIDWEST WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH TRAILING SOUTHWEST OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. A BROKEN LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDED FROM THE OZARKS INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA...
WITH A FEW ISOLATED STORMS SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

.DISCUSSION...
A STRONG SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LARGER SCALE UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE CENTRAL U.S WILL SWING INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
THIS MORNING AND PULL A COLD FRONT THROUGH MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS.
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO START TO SLOW...IF NOT STALL OVER
OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES BY THIS EVENING. ENOUGH ENERGY WILL
GRAZE THE NORTHEAST HALF OR SO OF THE AREA FOR LOW CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND NON-SEVERE STORMS...WITH BEST CHANCES OCCURRING ACROSS
OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES THROUGH TONIGHT. A STRONG STORM OR TWO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNSET AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT WHERE HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S WILL LEND TO
SBCAPE VALUES AT OR LITTLE ABOVE 1200 J/KG...STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES TO 7 DEG C/KM AND MODEST WESTERLY BULK SHEAR 25-30 KTS. IT
WOULD NOT SURPRISE ME TO SEE SOME VERY SMALL HAIL AND LOCALIZED
GUSTY WINDS WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS THROUGH NIGHTFALL. BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT...GUSTY NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH WILL
HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN IN THE 70S WITH WINDS DECOUPLING AND
SETTLING BELOW 10 MPH TONIGHT.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH JUST SOUTH OR LINGER NEAR OUR FAR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS WEAK COLD ADVECTION
CONTINUES IN WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE MOVING TOWARD THE
OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. EVEN SO...THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH
ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN AND NEAR THE IMMEDIATE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO
MAINTAIN LOW RAIN CHANCES BASICALLY SOUTHEAST OF AN ATHENS TO
TEMPLE LINE. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS
DOWN THAT WAY WILL AVERAGE BETWEEN 0.10-0.25 INCHES. WE HIT A
BRIEF LULL IN DISTURBANCES WED NIGHT WITH A DRY...BUT COOL
FORECAST IN STORE FOR THE AREA. HEIGHT FALLS WILL OCCUR THURSDAY
IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE STALLED FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
LIFT BACK NORTH ACROSS THOSE AREAS WEST OF I-35/35W AND HAVE
MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCES ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES...THOUGH DO
NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL BEING THAT MOISTURE IS
RATHER MEAGER. WE WILL SEE ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD ADVECTION. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN NEAR SEASONAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY ALONG WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE.

A SLIGHT WARM UP WITH DRY CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND AS
THE LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST AWAY FROM THE AREA WITH AN
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN. HOWEVER...THE STRENGTH OF THE SECONDARY
SURGE ARRIVING LATE WEEK WILL KEEP A COOLER AND DRY NORTHEAST TO
EAST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. LOOK FOR COOL STARTS TO EACH DAY
STARTING IN THE 50S THEN WARMING NICELY BACK INTO THE 70S EACH
AFTERNOON. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST TOWARD THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND ANOTHER
FULL MERIDIONAL UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.S BEGINS APPROACHING
THE AREA AND INDUCING WARM ADVECTION. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK ON A STRONG SHORTWAVE ROTATING
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AND OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING TO THE AREA. THERE ARE SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES WITH THE MID LEVEL ENERGY AND SURFACE COLD FRONT. AS
SUCH...WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES LOW UNTIL THE DETAILS WORK THEMSELVES
OUT.

05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  76  56  77  53  77 /  20  10   0   0  10
WACO, TX              83  57  77  53  78 /  10  20  10   5  10
PARIS, TX             72  52  74  46  73 /  40  20   5   5   5
DENTON, TX            75  49  76  47  76 /  10   5   0   0  10
MCKINNEY, TX          75  51  76  46  75 /  20  10   5   0  10
DALLAS, TX            77  56  77  55  76 /  20  10   0   0  10
TERRELL, TX           79  55  76  51  76 /  20  20   5   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         81  58  76  52  76 /  20  30  20   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            84  60  77  55  79 /  10  20  20  10  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     76  51  77  49  77 /  10   5   0   0  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

25/05





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.