Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 020757
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
257 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND REGIONAL RADAR DATA ARE VERY
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY MORNING WITH AN UPPER RIDGE STILL CENTERED
JUST TO THE WEST OF NORTH TEXAS. A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF THE PANHANDLE AND WILL
MOVE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST TEXAS OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. SOME CLOUD COVER HAS SPREAD INTO NORTH TEXAS AND THIS WILL
LIKELY LINGER THROUGH MIDDAY. A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES
MAINLY THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS. TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 90S AND DEWPOINTS WILL ONCE AGAIN MIX INTO THE MID/UPPER
50S.

LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY LATER TODAY
AND ON MONDAY. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY ALLOW BETTER SURFACE MOISTURE
TO SPREAD NORTHWARD AND WILL BE MOST EVIDENT BY TUESDAY MORNING.
THE UPPER PATTERN CHANGES LITTLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH THE
RIDGE ACTUALLY STAYING CENTERED JUST TO OUR WEST. NORTH TEXAS WILL
STILL BE HOT WITH HIGHS RIGHT AROUND 100 DEGREES BUT THE SLIGHT
NORTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE MAY ALLOW A FEW ISOLATED STORMS
NEAR THE RED RIVER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE CANADIAN GUIDANCE
ACTUALLY HAS A RATHER STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY AND INDICATES BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
LATE WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW...WILL MAINTAIN 10 PERCENT POPS TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY AND MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY PRECIPITATION.

OTHERWISE...RIDGING APPEARS TO DOMINATE THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH HIGHS NEAR 100 EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

DUNN

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1153 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015/
/06Z TAFS/

NO SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS...VFR THROUGHOUT.

DESPITE AN UNSEASONABLY DRY POSTFRONTAL BOUNDARY LAYER...THE MID-
LEVELS WILL REMAIN MOIST. A SCT/BKN AC/AS DECK WILL PREVAIL...THE
INSTABILITY WITHIN WHICH WILL BE ADEQUATE FOR A FEW HIGH-BASED
SHOWERS. MORE VIGOROUS CONVECTION MAY IMPACT FAR WESTERN PORTIONS
OF NORTH TEXAS OVERNIGHT BUT STILL THINK THE THREAT FOR THUNDER IS
FAR TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TAFS. THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL
BE VIRGA.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER 12KTS. EASTERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO VEER AS THE POSTFRONTAL SURFACE HIGH WEAKENS AND
DRIFTS EASTWARD.

25

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  98  77  99  79  99 /  10   5   5   0   5
WACO, TX              98  73  99  76  99 /   5   5   5   0   5
PARIS, TX             99  71  98  74  97 /   5   5   5   0  10
DENTON, TX            98  71  99  76  99 /  10   5   5   0  10
MCKINNEY, TX          98  70  98  76  98 /   5   5   5   0  10
DALLAS, TX            98  78 100  81  99 /   5   5   5   0   5
TERRELL, TX           98  72  98  76  98 /   5   5   5   0   5
CORSICANA, TX         98  74  99  77  98 /   5   5   5   0   5
TEMPLE, TX            99  71  99  74  99 /   5   5   5   0   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     98  72  98  73  98 /  20   5   5   0   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$



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