Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
FXUS64 KFWD 272323
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
623 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016
Convection has erupted again across the central part of the
country in association with an upper level low currently crossing
the Central Plains. Lightning has increased from just north of the
Red River northward into KS and NE beneath the region of cool mid
level temperatures. These storms may create some routing issues
for northbound traffic but should not have any direct impact on
the DFW area. Meanwhile, subsidence has developed in wake of the
slow moving MCS now extending from northern LA to the upper TX
coastal region. This is expected to prohibit convective
development, and the forecast for all TAF locations will remain
free of any mention of thunder through the end of the TAF cycle.
The main concern will be the development of MVFR to possibly IFR
ceilings and a potential for fog. Both the HRRR and RAP13 have
indicated patchy fog formation after midnight local while pretty
much all other guidance keeps visibilities in good shape. This
forecast will include a little of both, but neither is expected
to create any major problems. The lowest cigs are expected in the
KACT area where an IFR deck is likely after midnight, while MVFR
cigs and light fog will be forecast for the Metroplex during the
overnight hours. Conditions will improve by mid morning Saturday.
The next chance for convection will be associated with a weak
upper level disturbance late Saturday night, just beyond this set
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016/
Dry and subsident air will continue to filter into the region
tonight and will keep all rain and thunderstorms across East Texas
and Louisiana. Therefore...we will cancel the Flash Flood watch
that is currently in affect across the southern portions of the
Even through the dryline will approach the western zones late
this afternoon/early this evening we feel that storms will have a
tough time developing. If an isolated storm were to form on the
dryline it would most likely occur near the Red River, closest to
the departing upper low.
Saturday morning will be mild and quiet with lows in the upper
60s and lower 70s. A few showers and storms may develop Saturday
afternoon and evening as a weak shortwave approaching from West
Texas brings increasing large scale lift and mid level moisture.
This shortwave should lift out of the region by Sunday morning but
another disturbance will approach from the west Sunday afternoon.
This second shortwave will be stronger and will most likely result
scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms Sunday. Better
thunderstorm chances will arrive Sunday night/Monday morning when
a complex of storms from West Texas translates across the region.
It appears that the best chance of storms Sunday night and Monday
will be north of the Interstate 20 corridor.
There will be a decrease in thunderstorm chances behind the
departing complex of storms Monday afternoon/evening.
However, storm chances will quickly return Tuesday in response to
increasing large scale forcing for ascent associated with a slow
moving upper low moving out of the Desert Southwest. Energy from
this system, coupled with abundant low level moisture, will
result in thunderstorm chances Tuesday through Thursday. The best
storm chances will be during the Wednesday/Thursday time frame
when a late season cold front moves through the region. We have
left some low pops in the forecast for next Friday due to timing
uncertainties with the upper system and cold front.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 71 89 72 86 70 / 10 20 20 20 30
Waco 71 89 71 86 69 / 10 20 20 20 30
Paris 69 86 69 86 68 / 10 20 20 20 30
Denton 68 88 69 86 68 / 10 10 20 20 30
McKinney 69 88 70 86 68 / 10 20 20 20 30
Dallas 72 90 72 87 71 / 10 20 20 20 30
Terrell 71 88 71 86 69 / 10 20 20 20 30
Corsicana 72 88 71 86 70 / 10 20 20 20 30
Temple 71 88 71 84 70 / 10 20 20 20 20
Mineral Wells 65 89 69 85 68 / 10 10 20 20 30