Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 230958
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
458 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS MAY OCCUR THIS
EVENING AS CONVECTION MOVES SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE METROPLEX TAF
SITES. HI-RES GUIDANCE AND RUC/HRRR ARE CERTAINLY MORE BULLISH ON
CONVECTION HOLDING TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH TO REACH TAF SITES. WHILE
THIS PROBABILITY IS LOW...FELT IT WAS BEST TO SHOW THE POSSIBILITY
OF THUNDER IN THE VICINITY FROM 2-4Z. FUTURE TAFS MAY NEED TO
AMEND TIMING OR REMOVE IT ALTOGETHER BASED ON UPSTREAM TRENDS.

TR.92

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE ANTICYCLONE
CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO WITH A TUTT LOW MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS
SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES ARE NOTED MOVING
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE WESTERN RIDGE INTO THE CENTRAL U.S.
THIS MORNING. BUILDING HEAT HAS BEEN THE MAIN STORY FOR NORTH
TEXAS OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS AND THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH ONLY SMALL CHANCES FOR RAINFALL.

TODAY THE TUTT LOW OVER LOUISIANA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD
SPREADING WEAK ASCENT ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THIS SHOULD RESULT
IN A SCATTERING OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST
OF THE AREA. FARTHER NORTH...A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE OZARKS IGNITING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG A COLD FRONT ACROSS PARTS OF ARKANSAS AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA
THIS AFTERNOON. THESE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE FROM NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST GIVEN THE FLOW AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE.
THE HRRR...RUC...AND 4KM NAM ALL INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION INTO THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS SO
WILL HAVE SOME 20/30 POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. A
FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH GUSTY WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT.

BY THURSDAY...THE CENTER OF THE 700MB RIDGE EDGES CLOSER TO THE
AREA AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO WARM BY A DEGREE OR SO.
THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE OVER THE OZARKS TODAY WILL CONTINUE
SOUTHWARD ON THURSDAY AND SHOULD BE LOCATED ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY LATE AFTERNOON. WHILE THE FRONT ITSELF
WONT REALLY AFFECT NORTH TEXAS TEMPERATURES...SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AS FAR WEST AS CANTON TO PALESTINE SO
WILL HAVE SOME 20 POPS ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES.

FRIDAY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE THE WARMEST OF THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
WITH THE CENTER OF THE 700MB RIDGE NEARLY OVERHEAD. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM 100 TO 105 ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES
RIGHT NEAR 105. SOME RELIEF MAY BE ON THE WAY HOWEVER AS A VERY
STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN
ON FRIDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THE
HANDLING OF THIS FEATURE...DIGGING IT INTO THE EASTERN U.S.
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RATHER LARGE AND DEEP
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE UPPER
RIDGE GETTING SHUNTED WESTWARD. WHILE NOT AS COOL AS LAST
WEEK...IT DOES APPEAR THAT TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK TO BELOW
NORMAL LEVELS WITH AT LEAST SOME ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAINFALL
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

CONCERNING POTENTIAL HEAT ADVISORY...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 105 DEGREES BOTH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
AGAIN ON FRIDAY. A HEAT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED DURING
THIS TIME.

DUNN

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  98  78 100  79 102 /  10  20  10  10   5
WACO, TX              98  77 100  78 101 /  10  10  10  10   5
PARIS, TX             94  75  97  76  98 /  20  30  20  10   5
DENTON, TX            99  76 101  77 101 /  20  20  10  10   5
MCKINNEY, TX          97  76  99  76 100 /  20  30  10  10   5
DALLAS, TX            99  79 101  79 102 /  20  20  10  10   5
TERRELL, TX           97  76  99  76  99 /  20  20  10  10   5
CORSICANA, TX         97  75  99  76 100 /  10  20  10  10   5
TEMPLE, TX            98  76  99  75 100 /   5  10  10  10   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX    100  76 101  76 102 /  10  20  10  10   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





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