Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 050510 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1110 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE NIGHT. SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS BY MIDDAY FRIDAY WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE WINDS WILL
BACK EASTERLY OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION...AND THEN BECOME NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY SATURDAY
MORNING AS A FRONT MOVES THROUGH. CEILINGS WILL BRIEFLY DECREASE
TO AROUND 2-3 KFT AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND SOME LIGHT RAIN MAY
QUICKLY MOVE OVER THE AIRPORTS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

JLDUNN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016/
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE AREA TONIGHT...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES INTO INTO THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND A SHORTWAVE RIDGE SLIDES OVERHEAD.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OVER THE HIGH PLAINS FRIDAY WILL
HELP TO INDUCE LEE SURFACE TROUGHING WITH BREEZY SOUTH WINDS AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. AS NOTED IN
LAST SEVERAL DISCUSSIONS...MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL BE LACKING
WITH PWATS A HALF INCH OR LESS. WITH THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF
THIS SYSTEM...WE ARE ONLY ADVERTISING SLIGHT LIGHT CHANCES ACROSS
MAINLY THE EASTERN COUNTIES DURING THIS TIME. IN ADDITION TO THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT...AN ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA AS WELL...RESULTING IN HIGHS 5-10 DEGREES ON
SATURDAY WITH BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SATURDAY NIGHT PROVIDING ANOTHER
SEASONABLY CHILLY MORNING SUNDAY...BUT NOTHING OUT OF THE ORDINARY.
MODEST SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH AND LOW LEVEL WAA RETURNING
ON SUNDAY WILL WARM HIGH TEMPS BACK INTO THE 60S FOR MUCH OF OUR
AREA. ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVES IN THE SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH
COOLER AND AT TIMES BRISK CONDITIONS. THESE COLD FRONTS WILL NOT
DRAW ANY SIGNIFICANT CAA TO THE AREA...THUS BOTH LOW AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS FOR EARLY
FEBRUARY.

THE SYNOPTIC SCALE LONGWAVE TROUGH SHIFTS INTO THE EASTERN CONUS
MID-LATE NEXT WEEK WITH NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS CONTINUING IN A
DRY PATTERN WITH BREEZY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS AND ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THESE METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH
THE CONTINUING DRYING OF SMALLER VEGETATION ACROSS THE AREA WILL
LIKELY ENHANCE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS LATE NEXT WEEK.

05/



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  33  58  37  57  37 /   0   0  10   0   0
WACO, TX              27  58  35  59  34 /   0   0  20   5   0
PARIS, TX             29  56  34  55  33 /   0   0  20  20   0
DENTON, TX            29  58  34  56  34 /   0   0  10   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          28  57  34  55  33 /   0   0  20   5   0
DALLAS, TX            35  59  38  57  38 /   0   0  10   5   0
TERRELL, TX           29  58  36  56  34 /   0   0  20   5   0
CORSICANA, TX         32  58  37  57  35 /   0   0  20   5   0
TEMPLE, TX            29  59  36  60  33 /   0   0  20   5   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     29  60  31  58  34 /   0   0  10   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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