Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
FXUS64 KFWD 230430
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1130 PM CDT MON AUG 22 2016
VFR conditions will prevail through the majority of the period
with the exception of some brief MVFR cigs Tuesday morning.
Low stratus should develop across the Hill Country in the next
few hours and will be ushered northward by an intensifying low-
level jet. MVFR cigs should spread into Waco by 11-12z and persist
for a few hours before lifting and scattering later Tuesday
morning. There is a chance that IFR cigs may exist at Waco at
times, but do not anticipate this being widespread enough to
warrant a mention in the TAF. For the Metroplex, the potential
for long-lived MVFR cigs is low, but cannot rule out some
intermittent cigs around FL020 between 12-14z, thus have
introduced a tempo to account for this. Otherwise, winds will be
south/southeast through the period and gusty at times during the
day Tuesday with gusts around 20 kts possible.
Most of the rain activity is quieting down for now but there will
continue to be low chances for rain north and west of a line from
Comanche to Denton to Sulphur Springs through the remainder of the
evening and overnight hours. Overall the forecast was in good
condition but did add a mention of patchy fog to our southeastern
counties where clear skies and light winds may result in some
areas of light fog.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CDT MON AUG 22 2016/
Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to move north through
the region this afternoon in a weak warm advection regime. The
atmosphere is still quite moist and uncapped which will support
scattered convection through the remainder of the afternoon. We
should see a decrease in coverage this evening with loss of
heating. Any showers and thunderstorms overnight should be
confined to our far northwest CWA as 850mb flow strengthens to
nearly 40 kt and strongest low level warm advection shifts to the
After tonight...mid level ridging begins to build into North Texas
from the east which will also allow much drier mid level air to
spread into the Southern Plains. This should effectively inhibit
precipitation development for the next couple of days.
Temperatures will also warm back into the lower 90s area wide.
Flow above the surface is actually a little strong for this time
of year with 20-30 kt from just above the surface through 500 mb.
Vertical mixing should result in winds 15 to 20 mph with higher
gusts on Tuesday afternoon.
Next rain chances arrive in the area late Thursday into Friday as
a slug of moisture moves in from the east. Large scale forcing for
ascent looks like it will be fairly weak during this time...so any
severe weather threat should be low. It appears more likely that
we`ll see diurnal showers/storm both Friday/Saturday afternoons
with best chances east of I-35.
Broad ridging looks like it will remain in place across a good
portion of the southern U.S. into early next week. Rain chances
will generally be low during this time.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 76 92 76 93 76 / 10 5 5 5 5
Waco 75 91 75 91 74 / 10 5 5 5 5
Paris 72 91 73 92 73 / 20 10 5 10 5
Denton 72 91 73 92 72 / 20 10 5 5 5
McKinney 73 91 74 92 74 / 20 10 5 10 5
Dallas 76 92 77 93 76 / 10 5 5 5 5
Terrell 74 91 74 92 74 / 10 5 5 5 5
Corsicana 76 91 76 91 75 / 10 5 5 5 5
Temple 74 91 74 90 73 / 10 5 5 5 5
Mineral Wells 72 91 71 92 71 / 20 10 10 5 5