Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 110539 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1139 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.AVIATION...
/6Z TAFS/

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND
10 KT WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH AREA VAD WIND PROFILES SHOW
A STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND MAXIMA ABOUT 1000-2000FT ABOVE THE GROUND.
HAVE PLACED SOME LLWS 24045KT AT 1500FT TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS AS THE
DIRECTION IS MORE WESTERLY THAN THE SURFACE WINDS. OTHERWISE...A
WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE MORNING HOURS
ALTHOUGH FLOW WILL GENERALLY REMAIN AROUND 10 KT.

DUNN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016/
CLEAR SKIES AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OBSERVED ACROSS
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
INTO MOST OF THE WEEKEND ALTHOUGH A WEAK FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA ON THURSDAY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING TOO WARM.

WITH THE WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TODAY INTO TONIGHT...WE WILL SEE
MARKEDLY WARMER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT. WE
WILL SEE A WEAK (DRY) FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY
ON THURSDAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO A NOTICEABLE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH FOR DAYTIME HIGHS. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO KNOCK
TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN TO AROUND SEASONAL NORMS FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT.

AFTER A PRETTY BENIGN PERIOD ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE NEXT
WEATHER MAKER APPEARS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY IN THE FORM
OF A (RELATIVELY) WEAK SHORTWAVE. AS IT APPROACHES NORTH CENTRAL
TEXAS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON WE COULD SEE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS BUT
MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE RATHER LIMITED UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY/EVENING
TIME FRAME. KEPT PRECIP CHANCES AROUND 20-30 PERCENT THROUGH 00Z
WITH HIGHEST CHANCES CLOSER TO THE RED RIVER VALLEY WHERE BETTER
MOISTURE PROFILES EXIST. THE BEST CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE RAIN
APPEARS TO BE IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY AND FOCUSED IN
NE TX (GENERALLY EAST OF I-35). STILL NOT LOOKING FOR A WHOLE LOT
IN THE WAY OF QPF AMOUNTS...PERHAPS AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH
FOR OUR FAR NE COUNTIES.

RAIN CHANCES LINGER OVER E AND NE PORTIONS OF OUR AREA THROUGH
AROUND MIDDAY MONDAY BEFORE QUICKLY COMING TO AN END AS THE
SHORTWAVE RACES THROUGH THE GULF COAST STATES MONDAY EVENING.
AFTER ITS DEPARTURE...LOOKS LIKE A RETURN OF DRY AND WARM
CONDITIONS FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK.



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  49  68  40  67  41 /   0   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX              44  76  43  72  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             42  65  37  65  39 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            43  65  37  66  39 /   0   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          45  66  38  66  40 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            49  69  41  68  43 /   0   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           44  69  40  67  41 /   0   0   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         48  73  46  70  44 /   0   0   0   0   5
TEMPLE, TX            43  78  46  74  46 /   0   0   0   0   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     44  70  37  70  39 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


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