Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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000
FXUS64 KFWD 090413
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1113 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR THROUGH PERIOD. 00Z NAM SUPPORTS CONVECTION NEAR THE
METROPLEX AS BOUNDARY DROPS INTO THE AREA...WHILE 00Z GFS NOW
HOLDS THE FRONT UP NEAR THE RED RIVER AT SUNRISE AND PUSHES IT
BACK NORTH A BIT BY THE AFTERNOON WITH DRY AIR ABOVE THE
METROPLEX. BOTH MAV MOS/MET MOS STILL INDICATE AN AFTERNOON TSRA
THREAT...36/45 PERCENT ON THE 12 HOUR TS POPS FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE WITH VCTS FOR NOW AND WAIT FOR MORE HI
RES GUIDANCE. 84

&&

.UPDATE...

WITH SUNSET APPROACHING...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE
SURFACE BASED CUMULUS FIELD HAS DISSIPATED ACROSS MOST OF NORTH
AND CENTRAL TEXAS. AT 745 PM...THERE WERE STILL SOME ISOLATED RAIN
SHOWERS OVER STEPHENS COUNTY...HOWEVER RADAR TRENDS INDICATED THAT
THESE WERE WEAKENING RAPIDLY. AS A RESULT...THINK THAT THE CHANCE
OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THIS
EVENING IS VERY LOW AND WENT AHEAD AND REMOVED THE MENTION OF
STORMS FROM MOST OF THE CWA. 00Z/7PM SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWED A
WEAK COLD FRONT CONTINUING TO SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
THERE WERE SCATTERED STORMS ALONG THIS FRONT AT THE TIME OF THIS
DISCUSSION. LEFT IN A MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM THIS EVENING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR LOCATIONS NEAR THE RED RIVER FOR
THE POTENTIAL FOR THESE STORMS TO SLIDE SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER.
MOST HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS WILL NOT
HAPPEN UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...LEFT A MENTION OF STORMS IN
THE FORECAST NEAR THE THE RED RIVER BEFORE MIDNIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE SMALL CHANCE THAT OUTFLOW ACCELERATES THE COLD FRONT OR
INITIATES NEW STORMS SOUTH OF THE FRONT. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED NEAR THE RED RIVER OVERNIGHT...AND THE COVERAGE OF STORMS
SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED.

CAVANAUGH


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014/
ISOLATED-SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON OVER
THE WESTERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA. WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE ISOLATED-
SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA. COVERAGE WILL BE MINIMAL BUT
AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAIN COULD PICK UP CLOSE TO A THIRD OF AN INCH
OF RAIN AND POSSIBLY GUSTY WINDS TO 45 MPH.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAS REMAINED CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
TODAY WITH A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THE AXIS OF THE
RIDGE EXTENDS SOUTHEAST INTO TEXAS...WHICH IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
INCREASING TEMPERATURES WE HAVE HAD THE PAST FEW DAYS. THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLOWLY BUILD EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR EAST SLIDES EAST/NORTHEAST.
HOWEVER...BEFORE THAT HAPPENS...A WEAK FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WILL SLIDE SOUTH NEAR THE RED RIVER
TONIGHT AND STALL NEAR OR SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE RIVER TOMORROW.
THIS FRONT WILL BE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION TOMORROW AND WILL
MAINTAIN 20 TO 30 POPS OVER ROUGHLY THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE
CWA DURING THE DAY TOMORROW...WITH THE BETTER CHANCES ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT. ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH IN
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE FRONT WILL RETURN NORTH LATE ON
WEDNESDAY AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS IN THE COLORADO PLAINS.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST ON
THURSDAY AND WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON
FRIDAY. THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY END ANY RAIN CHANCES FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE.
EXPECT WARM DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 102 DEGREES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE IN THE 70S...MAINLY THE MID TO UPPER 70S...WITH
URBAN AREAS IN THE DFW METROPLEX ONLY COOLING OFF TO AROUND 80
DEGREES SOME OF THE NIGHTS/MORNINGS. AFTERNOON WIND SPEEDS BETWEEN
5 TO 15 MPH WILL OFFER SOME RELIEF FROM THE AFTERNOON HEAT BUT
HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL STILL BE ON THE RISE THIS WEEKEND. BY
SUNDAY...THE GFS RETREATS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH BACK WEST OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS WHILE THE ECMWF HOLDS THE RIDGE OVER THE STATE.
IN THE EXTENDED...KEPT TEMPERATURES IN BETWEEN THE MEX AND ECMWF
GUIDANCE BUT IF THE ECMWF IS REALIZED...TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT WILL BE
BECOME COMMON NEXT WEEK.

82/JLD



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  78  97  77  98  77 /  10  20  10   5   5
WACO, TX              75  98  74  97  74 /  10   5   5   5   5
PARIS, TX             75  92  73  94  74 /  20  30  20  10  10
DENTON, TX            74  96  75  98  75 /  10  30  10   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          75  95  75  96  76 /  10  30  20   5   5
DALLAS, TX            79  97  77  98  78 /  10  20  10   5   5
TERRELL, TX           78  95  76  98  75 /  10  20  10  10  10
CORSICANA, TX         75  95  74  96  74 /  10  10   5   5  10
TEMPLE, TX            75  98  74  97  74 /  10   5   5   5  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     74  98  74  99  74 /  10  10   5   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /




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