Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 260424 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1124 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

.AVIATION...
/6Z TAFS/

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH SOME HIGH
CLOUD IS SPREADING INTO THE AREA FROM CONVECTION TO THE EAST. THIS
SHOULD THIN OUT OVERNIGHT. GENERALLY LIGHT EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE IS SOME INCREASING MOISTURE
ACROSS EAST TEXAS WHICH WILL MOVE INTO NORTH TEXAS TOMORROW AND
WILL LIKELY SET OFF A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. RIGHT NOW
THINK THE MOST LIKELY AREAS WILL BE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE MAJOR
METROPLEX AIRPORTS. WILL CONTINUE WITH A VCTS AT WACO TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION CONCERNS OUTSIDE OF
ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION.

DUNN

&&

.UPDATE...
IT IS ANOTHER QUIET NIGHT ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS.
ALTHOUGH THE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST
TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OF A CENTER TO LUFKIN LINE...ARE MOVING
NORTHWEST...THEY WILL NOT MAKE IT INTO FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. WE
WILL SEE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH LOWS IN THE 70S AREA
WIDE. WITH INCREASED MOISTURE TOMORROW...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
AT TO A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN TODAY. NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

58

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014/
IT IS A QUIET AND WARM DAY ACROSS THE REGION AS WE AWAIT OUR NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEMS. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN DOMINATING OUR
WEATHER PATTERN THE LAST FEW DAYS HAS MOVED TO OUR NORTHEAST AND WILL
REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR NORTHEAST AS A TUTT LOW IN THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO MOVES WEST TOWARDS THE TEXAS COAST. THIS FEATURE IS
SCHEDULED BY MOST OF THE MODELS TO APPROACH THE TEXAS COAST
TUESDAY AFTERNOON BUT THE RAP IS INDICATING A MUCH SLOWER MOVEMENT
OF THE TUTT. IN ADDITION...THE TRACK OF THE TUTT APPEARS TO BE
SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. DESPITE
THIS...RICH TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL STILL MOVE WEST AND NORTHWEST
INTO THE REGION STARTING TUESDAY AND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
WEAKEN SOME OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE VERY HIGH SO KEPT RAIN CHANCES AT
20 PERCENT ACROSS THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST WITH JUST AN ISOLATED
MENTION ELSEWHERE. GUSTY WINDS...LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

ON WEDNESDAY...WE WILL REMAIN IN A TRANSITION PERIOD AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS TROUGH WILL HELP
TO FURTHER PUSH THE RIDGE TO THE EAST. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY AS RICH ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE. ON THURSDAY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE PLAINS. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS WERE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT ON THE SPEED OF THE TROUGH BUT THE LATEST RUNS HAVE
AGAIN STARTED TO DIVERGE FROM EACH OTHER. AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL
AGAIN OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WITH BETTER
COVERAGE LIKELY IN THE SOUTHEAST WHERE THE MOISTURE WILL BE
HIGHER...AND IN THE NORTHWEST CLOSER TO THE APPROACHING TROUGH.
OUR BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE FRIDAY AND/OR SATURDAY DEPENDING ON
THE SPEED OF THE TROUGH. THE GFS IS THE FASTEST OF THE EXTENDED
MODELS WITH THE ECMWF THE SLOWEST OF THE MODELS. BECAUSE OF THE
DISCREPANCIES...HAVE LINGERED POPS INTO SUNDAY AND ENDED THEM
FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY. IF THE GFS IS REALIZED AND THE
TROUGH IS OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT...THE RAIN
CHANCES WILL END EARLIER. BENEFICIAL RAIN IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS
SYSTEM DEPENDING ON THE SPEED OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BUT SOME
LOCATIONS WILL BENEFIT FROM THE RAIN MORE THAN OTHERS.

WITH THE PATTERN CHANGE THIS WEEK...TEMPERATURES THROUGH MIDWEEK
WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BUT BELOW 100 DEGREES. FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...EXPECT NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

82/JLD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  79  98  77  98  77 /   5  10  10  10  10
WACO, TX              75  98  74  98  74 /   5  10  10  10  10
PARIS, TX             73  95  72  95  71 /   5  20  20  10  10
DENTON, TX            76  97  74  97  73 /   5  10  10  10  10
MCKINNEY, TX          75  96  74  96  72 /   5  10  10  10  10
DALLAS, TX            80  98  78  98  77 /   5  10  10  10  10
TERRELL, TX           77  98  76  97  74 /   5  20  20  10  10
CORSICANA, TX         77  98  76  97  74 /   5  20  20  20  20
TEMPLE, TX            74  99  74  98  73 /   5  10  10  20  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     74  98  73  98  74 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




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