Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 122350 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
550 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNDERNEATH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...
WHICH WILL SLOWLY TRANSITION TO A FLAT SHORTWAVE RIDGE ALOFT
THROUGH SATURDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MIDWEST
DURING THIS TIME...AS LEE-SIDE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS INCREASES ON
SATURDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHWEST
U.S.

GULF MOISTURE IN BETWEEN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND 850MB WILL INCREASE
AFTER 12Z SATURDAY AS WELL IN RESPONSE TO LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERING
WITH TIME. HAVE LEFT MVFR CIGS AT WACO FOR MUCH OF THE DAY
SATURDAY...WITH DFW AREA AIRPORTS SEEING LOW VFR CIGS BY LATE
MORNING AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
AS ALL THIS OCCURS UNDER AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER ANCHORED WITHIN
THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.

NORTHEAST WINDS 5-10 KTS TONIGHT WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST 10-15 KTS ON
SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE SURFACE CHANGES NOTED ABOVE. HIGHER
GUSTS TO 20 KTS ARE POSSIBLE BY 21Z SATURDAY AND INTO SATURDAY
EVENING.

05/

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/
DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST
OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A MUCH COOLER
NIGHT TONIGHT WITH LOWS FROM THE MIDDLE 30S NEAR THE RED RIVER TO
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 40S IN CENTRAL TEXAS.

LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL RETURN TO THE REGION SATURDAY AS
A SURFACE LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING LOW CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE
DAY SATURDAY WHICH WILL OFFSET THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND KEEP
AFTERNOON HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S.

MOSTLY CLOUDY...BREEZY AND MILD CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S.

SUNDAY WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY AND MILD WITH A FEW WARM AIR
ADVECTION SHOWERS. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN A
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH/SOUTHEAST FROM
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE. THE SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
ENTIRE REGION MONDAY AND PRECIPITATION WILL END QUICKLY FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.

UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY AND BRING MILD TEMPERATURES AND LITTLE CHANCE FOR
RAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE 70S WITH LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S.

79

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  42  60  51  65  49 /   0   0   5  20  40
WACO, TX              43  65  51  70  49 /   0   0  10  20  30
PARIS, TX             35  53  41  54  44 /   0   0   5  20  50
DENTON, TX            36  59  49  65  45 /   0   0   5  20  40
MCKINNEY, TX          37  57  49  63  47 /   0   0   5  20  50
DALLAS, TX            42  60  51  67  50 /   0   0  10  20  50
TERRELL, TX           40  59  49  64  49 /   0   0   5  20  50
CORSICANA, TX         43  62  51  69  52 /   5   0  10  20  40
TEMPLE, TX            44  65  51  70  50 /   5   0  10  20  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     39  63  50  69  45 /   0   0   5  10  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

05/79


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