Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 030751
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
251 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.DISCUSSION...
A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS
MORNING AND ROTATE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF NORTH TEXAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. MID LEVEL  MOISTURE AND LARGE SCALE LIFT
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...WE WILL KEEP POPS IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT
RANGE SINCE THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN VERY DRY
AND MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL EVAPORATE BEFORE REACHING THE
GROUND.

THE SHORTWAVE WILL EXIT THE REGION BEFORE SUNRISE WEDNESDAY AND
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY TAKES ITS PLACE. THIS
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AND WILL BRING
MILD AND DRY WEATHER TO THE ENTIRE REGION. AFTERNOONS HIGHS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 80S WITH
LOWS IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL TRANSLATE TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY
IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO LIFT
SLOWLY NORTHEAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AND
RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. THE BEST STORM CHANCES WILL BE ON MONDAY
WHEN A DRYLINE ENTERS THE REGION. IT IS TOO EARLY TO ASSESS THE
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WITH ANY ACCURACY BUT THE PATTERN
SUGGESTS THAT SOME SEVERE WHERE WILL BE POSSIBLE IF THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS VERIFY.

79

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1144 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016/
/6Z TAFS/

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT
NORTHERLY FLOW. THERE IS ONE MORE DISTURBANCE THAT IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH THE AREA TOMORROW EVENING. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE A LITTLE
MID LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT AND COULD RESULT IN SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM NORTHWEST OF THE
MAJOR AIRPORTS FOR A FEW HOURS TOMORROW EVENING. THE DISTURBANCE
WILL SWING THROUGH RATHER QUICKLY AND CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL IN
ITS WAKE.

DUNN


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH    74  56  81  57  82 /   0  10   0   0   0
WACO                73  51  80  54  81 /   0   5   0   0   0
PARIS               70  52  77  52  76 /   0  10  10   0   0
DENTON              73  51  79  52  80 /   5  20  10   0   0
MCKINNEY            72  52  79  53  78 /   0  10  10   0   0
DALLAS              73  56  81  57  82 /   0  10   0   0   0
TERRELL             72  53  79  54  79 /   0   5  10   0   0
CORSICANA           72  54  79  55  80 /   0   5   0   0   0
TEMPLE              73  52  80  54  82 /   5   5   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS       74  51  80  53  82 /  10  20   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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