Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 250806
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
306 AM CDT THU AUG 25 2016

.DISCUSSION...
One more relatively quiet day across North and Central Texas, as
the Southeast CONUS upper ridge continues to retract back east-
northeast toward the U.S. East Coast. As this transition occurs,
a subtle shortwave aloft will rotate around the western periphery
of the upper ridge this afternoon across far East Texas. We have
maintained 20-30 percent chances for our far E/SE counties through
sunset this evening. With richer PWAT values between 1.5-2 inches
creeping westward, the atmosphere will become more moist adiabatic
with brief heavy downpours, localized gusty winds, and lightning
strikes as the main hazards with any stronger cores. Temperatures
will remain very warm today with highs in the lower 90s south to
the middle 90s north. Overnight conditions will remain muggy with
lows in the 70s areawide.

As the upper high center continues shifting northeast over the
Mid-Atlantic region Friday into the weekend, a deep tropical flux
of moisture will shift west over the area. Meanwhile, periodic
waves of shortwave energy will rotate northwest and north across
the eastern half of Texas. This continuation of weak forcing
interacting with strong late August heating will result in
periodic, mainly diurnal chances for convection containing brief
heavy downpours. Have not introduced higher chances through the
weekend due to the absence of any surface fronts or boundaries
that would help focus higher concentrations of showers and storms.
Higher rain chances will likely remain confined across South and
Southeast Texas during this period, as a slow-moving easterly wave
transits westward across that part of the state.

The higher moisture content, clouds, and scattered convection
should help keep high temperatures in check and generally around
or below seasonal normals in the low 90s. A few areas across
especially the southeast half of the CWA may only see highs in the
middle to upper 80s, depending on where convection becomes more
concentrated during the daytime hours.

The center of the eastern CONUS upper high will shift slightly
southwestward and extend from from the Carolinas to the Deep
South early next week. This modest southwestward shift of the
high will result in better, low diurnal convective chances
occurring over Central Texas and across some of our western areas
Monday through Wednesday. Similar to the weekend, with mesoscale
surface boundaries lacking and forcing aloft being fairly subtle,
will only introduce 20-40 percent probabilities through the
period, with the bulk of activity occurring during the afternoon
and early evening hours.

Regarding the Tropics, models keep shifting the forecast for the
disturbance over Hispaniola back to the east as compared from 24
hours ago. This disturbance will eventually be named Hermine once
it reaches tropical storm status. The general consensus of the
Euro/GFS are close to TPC progs of bringing this tropical
disturbance into the Bahamas this weekend, then across southern
Florida on Monday, before it heads northward along the west coast
of Florida into the Florida Panhandle by Wednesday due to the
effects of a trough moving into the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys. That
being said, we expect no effects from any tropical disturbances
across the western Gulf of Mexico the next 10 days.

05/

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1121 PM CDT WED AUG 24 2016/
/06Z TAFs/

Generally VFR conditions are expected to prevail but a few hours
of MVFR cigs due to stratus are possible at KACT Thursday morning.
The best window for MVFR cigs at KACT is 12-15Z and will Tempo
for BKN015. Otherwise, afternoon and evening cumulus with bases
between 4-6 kft can be expected again Thursday with some high
clouds through the period. South to southeast winds at the start
of the TAF period will become more south-southwest by sunrise,
but then will back to southeast Thursday afternoon. Wind speeds
are expected to remain below 10-12 kts through the valid TAF
period.

The upper level ridge will shift east during the day on Thursday
and convection is expected to occur across parts of East and
Southeast Texas. The convection is expected to remain east of the
TAF airports but cannot completely rule out an isolated shower or
storm reaching the I-35 corridor during the late afternoon and
evening hours. However, this chance is too low to mention in the
TAF. Better chances for convection that may affect the airports is
expected on Friday.

JLDunn


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    95  77  91  76  92 /   5   5  50  20  20
Waco                92  74  91  73  91 /   5   5  50  20  20
Paris               93  75  89  73  91 /  20  10  60  30  30
Denton              94  74  90  73  92 /   0   5  40  20  20
McKinney            93  75  90  73  91 /  10   5  50  20  20
Dallas              95  78  91  76  92 /   5   5  50  20  20
Terrell             93  75  90  74  91 /  20  10  50  20  30
Corsicana           92  76  90  74  91 /  20  10  50  20  30
Temple              91  73  91  72  90 /  10   5  40  20  20
Mineral Wells       94  73  91  71  93 /   0   5  30  10  20

&&

.FWD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

/05



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