Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 212011
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
311 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SUMMER HEAT HAS QUICKLY RETURNED TO NORTH TEXAS TODAY WITH HOT AND
HUMID CONDITIONS AREA-WIDE. TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S COMBINED WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S HAVE CREATED HEAT INDICES IN
THE 100-105 RANGE IN MANY LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON. ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK DUE MAINLY
TO THE STRENGTHENING OF A MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER MUCH OF
THE REGION. THE RIDGE AXIS IS CENTERED OVER COLORADO AND NEW
MEXICO BUT STRETCHES EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND NORTH
TEXAS...WITH LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN POSITION EXPECTED THIS WEEK.

EAST OF THE RIDGE...A WEAK UPPER LOW CAN BE SEEN ON SATELLITE
GENERATING CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THIS LOW WILL
SLOWLY MOVE WEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. NORTH TEXAS WILL
RESIDE IN BETWEEN THE RIDGE TO THE WEST AND THE LOW TO THE
EAST...WHICH WILL GENERATE NORTHEAST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THURSDAY.
A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE IS STILL PROGGED TO ROTATE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE
ARKLATEX REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT....BRINGING WITH IT ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND LIFT TO PRODUCE SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER NORTHEAST
PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL OCCUR NEAR PARIS...WHERE WE WILL GO AHEAD AND INCLUDE CHANCE
POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL BE INCLUDED IN
AREAS SOUTHWEST OF LAMAR COUNTY INCLUDING DALLAS/FORT WORTH AND
SURROUNDING LOCALES. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BECOME SOMEWHAT ORGANIZED AS THEY APPROACH FROM THE NORTHEAST LATE
WEDNESDAY...PERHAPS FORMING INTO A SOUTHWEST MOVING MCS. IF THIS
BEGINS TO APPEAR MORE LIKELY IN FUTURE MODEL DATA...HIGHER POPS MAY
BE NEEDED FOR THE NORTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE REGION.

THE NORTHEAST FLOW REGIME WILL ALLOW A WEAK FRONT TO SAG SOUTH
ACROSS THE RED RIVER...BECOMING STATIONARY NORTH OF I-20 ON
THURSDAY. THIS BOUNDARY COULD PROVIDE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED STORMS...
AND WE WILL CONTINUE WITH 20 POPS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
REGION THURSDAY. WESTERN COUNTIES WILL MOST LIKELY BE TOO HEAVILY
IMPACTED BY SUBSIDENCE FROM THE CO/NM RIDGE FOR THE INCLUSION OF
POPS.

THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL EXPAND LONGITUDINALLY LATE THIS WEEK
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...REACHING AS FAR EAST AS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
FRIDAY. HOT AND RAIN-FREE WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS A RESULT ACROSS A
LARGE PORTION OF TEXAS. THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERN WILL BE THE
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND...WITH CURRENT APPARENT
TEMPERATURE GRIDS PRODUCING HEAT INDICES IN EXCESS OF 105 DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WE WILL MONITOR OUR
FORECAST TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT TRENDS AS THE WEEKEND APPROACHES...AND
MAY HAVE TO CONSIDER A HEAT ADVISORY IF IT APPEARS THAT THESE
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME FAIRLY WIDESPREAD.

THERE MAY BE SOME RELIEF IN SIGHT EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS MID RANGE
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE RETROGRADES WEST.
THIS MAY BRING SOME COOLER WEATHER ALONG WITH INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES AS WE MOVE THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

30

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1250 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014/

FOR THE 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE VALID
FORECAST PERIOD...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS
EXPECTED.

EARLY MORNING IFR TO MVFR CIGS HAVE SCATTERED OUT ACROSS THE
REGION...LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO HOLD OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS AS MODELS DO NOT CURRENTLY
INDICATE A RETURN OF STRATUS TO THE REGION TOMORROW MORNING.

THE ONLY OTHER REAL AVIATION WEATHER CONCERN IS THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON AND TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WITH TEMPERATURES
IN THE UPPER 80S AND DEW POINTS HOLDING IN THE MID 70S...IT
DEFINITELY FEELS LIKE A DAY WHEN WE TYPICALLY GET THUNDERSTORMS
HERE IN NORTH TEXAS. HOWEVER THERE ARE A COUPLE OF PROCESSES THAT
SHOULD PREVENT STORMS FROM DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS TODAY. THE FIRST IS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE THAT WAS INDICATED ON
12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS OVER OKLAHOMA. THIS RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
SLIDE SOUTH OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON.
SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WARM
UP/STRENGTHEN THE CAP ALOFT TODAY. ALSO...AS TEMPERATURES WARM UP
THEY WILL ENTRAIN SOME OF THE VERY DRY LOW TO MID-LEVEL AIR IN
PLACE RIGHT ABOVE THE BOUNDARY/MIXED LAYER...LOWERING SURFACE DEW
POINTS AND SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL DURING THE PEAK
HEATING HRS OF THE DAY TODAY. A SIMILAR ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED
FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON...SO MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST IN THE TAFS
OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 30 HRS.

CAVANAUGH


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  77  98  78  99  78 /   0   5   5  10  20
WACO, TX              74  98  74  99  73 /   5   5   5   5  10
PARIS, TX             70  95  72  96  75 /   0   5   5  20  30
DENTON, TX            73  97  74  98  75 /   0   5   5  10  20
MCKINNEY, TX          72  98  73  99  74 /   0   5   5  10  20
DALLAS, TX            78  98  79  99  78 /   0   5   5  10  20
TERRELL, TX           75  98  75  99  75 /   0   5   5  10  20
CORSICANA, TX         75  97  75  98  75 /   5   5   5  10  20
TEMPLE, TX            74  98  73  99  73 /   5   5   5   5  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     72  99  73 100  73 /   0   5   5   5  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









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