Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 052152
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
352 PM CST Mon Dec 5 2016

.DISCUSSION...
The upper low responsible for our recent bout of rainy weather is
churning east through the Texas Hill Country and will skirt our
southeastern zones this evening. Its final round of light rain
took the better part of the day to reach areas along and north of
the I-20 corridor, but Dallas/Fort Worth and Sherman/Denison are
now experiencing the wet afternoon commute that was expected.
Additional rainfall entering Central Texas will spread north
across the area into the evening hours. The last spits of rain
will gradually shift east as the low departs, and the showery
convection will be confined to East Texas by midnight.

Some clearing will encroach from the southwest after nightfall,
but as the nocturnal boundary layer cools, this will steadily be
replaced by fog. On the back side of the departing upper low,
north winds will usher in cooler air in the northwest, but the dry
advection will lag behind. The result will be fog and drizzle that
will eventually shift south as drier air filters in after daybreak
Tuesday. Even if there are peaks of sun on Tuesday, the cold
advection should keep temperatures generally in the 50s. The
exception would be southern and southeastern zones where the
cooler air will take longer to arrive.

Clouds will keep temperatures in the 40s across much of the region
Tuesday night. But in our northwestern zones, where winds will be
light and skies may clear, the mercury may dip to near freezing
Wednesday morning. Afternoon temperatures will be near seasonal
normals on Wednesday, but an arctic front will arrive late in the
day. Temperatures will plummet Wednesday night will blustery north
winds. Wind chills will be in the teens for the Thursday morning
commute, and those who have to be outdoors should plan
accordingly. Although the sun will come out on Thursday, afternoon
temperatures will be in the 30s with a biting wind.

With clear skies, light winds, and skin-cracking dew points in the
teens, radiational cooling will be in full force Thursday night.
Friday morning will be the coldest morning since the winter of
2014-2015 with much of the region seeing temperatures in the
teens. The current forecast low temperature at DFW Airport and
Waco is 20 degrees. If either site dips into the teens, it would
be the first occurrence since January 2015. That was also the most
recent teens for Sherman/Denison, where the forecast low Friday
morning is 18 degrees. A sunny day with light winds will follow,
but temperatures will only peak in the 40s. A warming trend this
weekend will push temperatures into the 50s Saturday afternoon and
the 60s Sunday and Monday next week.

25

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1208 PM CST Mon Dec 5 2016/
/18Z TAFs/

Concerns...MVFR and IFR cigs and vsby through much of the valid
TAF period. Periods of -RA and -DZ.

MVFR and IFR cigs will prevail into the evening hours as lift
continues across the region in advance of an upper level low.
Periods of light rain will move across the airports this
afternoon reducing visibilities to 1-4SM at times. As the upper
level low moves east, the rain will shift east and so will the low
clouds. In the wake of the upper level low, west winds above the
surface are expected to result in warm air advection and
isentropic lift. With relatively cool, damp grounds beneath the
warm air advection, fairly widespread fog is likely to develop as
the clouds break up and clear this evening and overnight. There
may also be some mist. Will prevail a 1SM at all the airports
overnight but visibilities will likely vary and periods of dense
fog may occur.

A surface low and front will move across the region Tuesday
morning bringing north winds of 10-15 kts. MVFR/IFR cigs are
expected to prevail for a few hours behind the front and there may
also be some drizzle at times.

JLDunn

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    44  55  41  56  29 /  30  10   5  10  10
Waco                42  56  41  60  32 /  20  10   5  10  10
Paris               42  53  39  51  27 /  70  10   5  20  10
Denton              40  53  37  54  26 /  30  10   5  10  10
McKinney            40  53  39  54  28 /  40  10   5  10  10
Dallas              44  54  42  56  30 /  40  10   5  10  10
Terrell             42  56  41  56  30 /  40  10   5  10  20
Corsicana           43  59  44  58  33 /  40  10   5  10  20
Temple              43  58  43  60  33 /  20  10   5  10  10
Mineral Wells       40  51  35  55  27 /  10  10   5   5  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

82/25



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