Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 290509 AAC
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1109 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.AVIATION...

CONTINUED VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

WE WILL CONTINUE WITH A FROPA TIMING OF 12-13Z IN THE METROPLEX
AND AROUND 16Z AT KACT.

SOUTH WINDS WILL REMAIN UP THROUGH 09Z TONIGHT AS KFWS 88D VAD
PROFILE SHOWS A STRONG LLJ OF 35-55 KNOTS BETWEEN 1000 AND 3000
FEET. HOWEVER...SURFACE WINDS SHOULD WEAKEN A LITTLE AFTER 08Z AS
A PRE-FRONTAL MOVES THROUGH WITH WINDS VEERING MORE SOUTHWEST TO
WESTERLY BEFORE THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES AROUND DAYBREAK. STILL
PLANNING FOR NORTHERLY WINDS OF 15G26KT DEVELOPING THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY 10 TO 13 KNOT NORTH WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT.
75

&&

.UPDATE...
THE CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT
THIS TIME.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND SHOULD CROSS THE RED RIVER TOWARD SUNRISE. TEMPERATURES
ON THURSDAY WILL BE CONSIDERABLY COOLER THAN TODAY WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 60S.   79

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

SPRING-LIKE CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS
TODAY WITH BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S. FROM WHAT I HAVE SEEN SO FAR ON THE
METARS...BRECKENRIDGE...GAINESVILLE AND HAMILTON HAVE ALL REACHED 82
DEGREES. WACO IS STILL VERY CLOSE TO THEIR RECORD HIGH FOR TODAY
OF 81 DEGREES. HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT ARRIVES TONIGHT BRINGING
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. TONIGHT WILL STILL BE A RELATIVELY WARM
NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

THE FRONT WILL ENTER OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES AROUND DAYBREAK
TOMORROW AND BY EARLY AFTERNOON WILL HAVE MOVED THROUGH THE ENTIRE
CWA. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BE FELT BEHIND THE FRONT BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT CONTINUOUSLY FALL THROUGH THE DAY. DAYTIME
HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S ALONG THE RED RIVER TO
UPPER 60S IN THE SOUTHEAST. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN IN THE 10-15
MPH RANGE FOR MOST OF THURSDAY NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
30S AND LOWER 40S.

ON FRIDAY...LIFT WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN AND BAJA CALIFORNIA.
SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN MAY OCCUR EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON BUT RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE OVERALL SPEED OF THE SYSTEM IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE BEST TIMING
FOR PRECIPITATION WHICH COULD BE PUSHED INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE REGION WILL AVERAGE GREATER
THAN A HALF OF AN INCH WITH SEVERAL LOCATIONS LIKELY RECEIVING
OVER AN INCH OF RAIN BY THE TIME THE RAIN ENDS ON SUNDAY. ON
SUNDAY...THE RAIN WILL END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS A PIECE
OF ENERGY FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST EJECTS ACROSS THE
PLAINS AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION.

TEMPERATURES BEHIND SUNDAY/S COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY WARM BACK INTO
THE 50S AND LOWER 60S BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW THAT WILL BE OVER BAJA THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL FINALLY EJECT
EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
THE MODELS REGARDING THE HANDLING OF THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW. THE
DIFFERENCES ARE MAINLY BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE EC/GEM. THE GFS
BRINGS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER TEXAS WITH ANOTHER RAIN EVENT
WHILE THE OTHER TWO MODELS TRACK THE LOW SOUTH OF THE STATE
THROUGH THE GOM RESULTING IN A DRY WEATHER PATTERN HERE IN NORTH
CENTRAL TEXAS. FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST BEYOND
SUNDAY...WITH SLOWLY WARMING TEMPS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.  82/JLD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  51  61  39  52  43 /   0   5   5  10  20
WACO, TX              50  66  40  54  44 /   0   5   5  10  20
PARIS, TX             49  59  34  52  39 /   0   5   5   5  20
DENTON, TX            49  60  37  52  42 /   0   5   5  10  20
MCKINNEY, TX          49  60  36  53  41 /   0   5   5   5  20
DALLAS, TX            51  62  39  52  43 /   0   5   5   5  20
TERRELL, TX           51  63  38  53  42 /   0   5   5   5  10
CORSICANA, TX         51  66  40  54  43 /   0   5   5   5  10
TEMPLE, TX            50  68  42  54  45 /   0   5   5  10  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     47  61  37  51  43 /   0   5  10  20  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

75/




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