Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 261042
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
542 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.AVIATION...
AS OF 07Z /2 AM/...THE STRONG COLD FRONT HAD PUSHED THROUGH ALL
AREA TERMINALS...AND BY 08Z /3 AM/ THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT HAD ALSO EXITED THE TRACON.

FOR THE REST OF TODAY...EXPECT THE CURRENT MVFR CIGS TO LIFT TO
VFR BY LATE MORNING AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE ALTOGETHER BECAUSE
THE MOISTURE IS QUICKLY BEING DEPLETED BEHIND THE FRONT.

WINDS INITIALLY BEHIND THE FRONT WERE SUSTAINED AROUND 30 KTS WITH
GUSTS AROUND 40 KTS...BUT SPEEDS HAVE SLOWLY COME DOWN SOME AND
WILL REMAIN AROUND 25 KTS WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF 35 KTS THROUGH
MID-MORNING. THIS GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY...AND BY LATE TONIGHT...EXPECT WINDS TO DROP TO AROUND 7
KTS AND BACK FROM THE NORTH TO THE SOUTHWEST.

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/
THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO QUICKLY PUSH SOUTHEAST AND IS JUST
ABOUT OUT OF THE CWA. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE JUST BEHIND THE
FRONT BUT THIS ACTIVITY WILL ALSO VACATE THE CWA BY EARLY MORNING.
SKIES WILL CLEAR RATHER RAPIDLY TODAY AS THE MOISTURE IS SCOURED
OUT BY DEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE MID TROPOSPHERE. WINDS
ARE RUNNING 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH EARLY THIS
MORNING AND A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH NOON FOR ALL BUT
THE FAR EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN CWA. THESE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH...BUT WILL STILL REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN YESTERDAY WITH COLD
ADVECTION CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY...HOWEVER THE SPRING SUNSHINE
WILL HELP WARM TEMPS INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S BY LATE AFTERNOON.
DIMINISHING WINDS...CLEAR SKIES...AND LOW DEWPOINTS WILL ALLOW FOR
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT. TEMPS WILL DIP DOWN INTO THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. SURFACE WINDS INCREASE JUST ENOUGH BY
SUNRISE THAT IT SHOULD HELP NIX ANY FROST POTENTIAL.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FRIDAY AND THIS WEEKEND WILL FEATURE A
LARGE RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. WITH A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE
EAST. THIS WILL KEEP NORTH TEXAS IN A DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
PATTERN AND ENSURE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...LOW AFTERNOON HUMIDITY AND
PLEASANT SPRING TEMPS WITH COOL NIGHTS AND WARM AFTERNOONS. SOUTH
WINDS INCREASE BY SUNDAY WITH MOISTURE MAKING A RETURN AHEAD OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT THAT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL STALL OVER OKLAHOMA SUNDAY
NIGHT. WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...SOME RESIDUAL CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY ALONG THIS FRONT MAY SPILL INTO THE NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF
THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT AND HAVE ADDED SOME LOW POPS. MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY LOOK SUFFICIENT FOR SOME ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EVENING
ACTIVITY MONDAY...BUT THERE IS NO ORGANIZED UPPER SYSTEM OR
SURFACE BOUNDARY TO AID IN LIFT SO POPS WILL STAY AT 20 PERCENT.

BY TUESDAY THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME WESTERLY OVER THE
REGION. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE WITH RESPECT
TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE PACIFIC NEXT WEEK. THE
ECMWF/CANADIAN STILL ADVERTISE A WEAK OPEN WAVE TROUGH THAT TRACKS
A BIT TOO FAR SOUTH OF THE CWA FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN. THE GFS CLOSES THIS SYSTEM OFF AND PRODUCES
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND STORMS OVER NORTH TEXAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. SINCE THIS WAVE ENERGY WILL HAVE TO DRIVE RIGHT
INTO THE HEART OF...AND BREAK DOWN...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE SONORA DESERT THIS WEEKEND...AM LEANING TOWARD THE
ECMWF/CANADIAN. WILL KEEP POPS LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM AND WILL HAVE
20 PERCENT NORTH OF I-20 AND 30 PERCENT SOUTH OF I-20. OTHERWISE
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM AND A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK.

TR.92

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  63  44  73  49  82 /   5   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX              64  40  77  47  82 /  10   0   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             62  41  67  45  76 /  10   0   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            62  39  72  46  82 /   5   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          62  39  71  44  80 /   5   0   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            64  45  73  51  82 /   5   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           62  41  72  46  79 /  10   0   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         63  42  74  48  79 /  10   0   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            64  40  79  46  82 /  10   0   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     63  39  77  46  85 /   5   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR TXZ091>094-100>105-
115>121-129>134-141>145-156>159.


&&

$$

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