Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 141618 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1118 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.UPDATE...
NEW 12Z MODELS...INCLUDING THE HRRR...TECH WRF...AND WRF EAST HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE THAT A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHEAST
NEW MEXICO WILL ROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A WEAK UPPER RIDGE
IN PLACE AND MOVE EAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND THE RED RIVER REGION
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE MORNING FWD SOUNDING HAS CONTINUED TO
SHOW AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER TO 1.81 INCHES THIS MORNING...
WHILE SURFACE DEW POINT TEMPERATURES WERE PUSHING IN THE LOWER 60S
ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA.

WITH THIS RESURGENCE OF MOISTURE AND FORCING FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHORTWAVE...WE REINTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR FAR WEST AND
NORTHWEST AREAS TONIGHT AND THE RED RIVER VALLEY REGION ON MONDAY.
SUBSIDENCE WILL BE WEAKEST ACROSS THESE AREAS AND EXPECT A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS NORTH AND NORTHWEST
AREAS. OTHERWISE...ADJUSTED HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY TODAY WITH
MID 70S ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY TO MID 80S ACROSS WESTERN PARTS
OF CENTRAL TEXAS...DESPITE THE STUBBORN CLOUD SHIELD.

05/

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 627 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014/
LIGHT EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS BROUGHT ABOUT A SLOW BUT STEADY
LOWERING OF STRATUS FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS NORTH TEXAS OVERNIGHT.
DALLAS-FORT WORTH AREA AIRPORTS HAVE EXPERIENCED MVFR CIGS DURING
THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND THESE WILL LIKELY HOLD ON UNTIL MID
DAY PER THE LATEST GUIDANCE NUMBERS. WILL INDICATE AN IMPROVEMENT
FROM LOW-END MVFR TO VFR AT 18Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

WE WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON TRENDS DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS
DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF IFR CONDITIONS UPSTREAM. FOR NOW WE WILL
STICK WITH THE THINKING THAT BUT DUE TO THE SLOW ADVECTION OF THE
HIGHER MOISTURE...IT IS MORE LIKELY THAT CLOUD BASES WILL BEGIN TO
LIFT BEFORE IFR CONDITIONS ARRIVE IN THE METROPLEX. THERE IS A
HIGHER POSSIBILITY OF BRIEF IFR AT KACT WHERE CIGS HAVE ALREADY
LOWERED TO NEAR 010. OTHERWISE SURFACE VISIBILITIES HAVE LOWERED
IN A FEW RURAL SPOTS...BUT THE PRESENCE OF CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP
VISIBILITIES IN CHECK AT AREA TAF SITES.

30


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014/
NORTH TEXAS WILL REMAIN ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WHICH WILL KEEP EAST TO NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS
THE REGION AND AN INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. AREAS OF LOW
CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG ARE EXPECTED AGAIN THIS MORNING BUT THE LOW
CLOUDS WILL NOT BE AS EXTENSIVE AS THEY WERE ON SATURDAY MORNING.
A FEW AREAS MAY EXPERIENCE BRIEF FOG WITH VISIBILITIES AROUND 1
MILE. ALTHOUGH THE LOW CLOUDS AND SHOULD LIFT THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY...EXTENSIVE MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP THE SKY MOSTLY
CLOUDY AND TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING TOO QUICKLY. AFTERNOON HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO THE MIDDLE 80S.

A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
TONIGHT AND MONDAY WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE EAST.
THIS PATTERN WOULD NORMALLY BRING A RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE TO THE
REGION. HOWEVER...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN THE GULF AND
KEEP SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY FROM THE EAST. THEREFORE...WE DO NOT
EXPECT A RAPID WARM UP ON MONDAY SINCE IT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
CLOUDY. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS
WITH HIGHS FROM THE MIDDLE 80S TO THE LOWER 90S.

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES
REGION MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT AND ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO MOVE SOUTH
ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE BIGGEST PUSH OF COLD AIR WILL REMAIN EAST
OF TEXAS. HOWEVER...THE FRONT SHOULD BACKDOOR INTO THE REGION
TUESDAY MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF LIFT ALONG THE FRONT AND LARGE
SCALE FORCING FROM A SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTH TEXAS AS
EARLY AS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE NORTHWEST ZONES. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD
INCREASE A BIT ON TUESDAY BUT OVERALL...THE FORCING WITH THIS
SYSTEM SHOULD BE WEAK AND COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BE
SCATTERED AT BEST. SOME LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK WAVE TRANSLATES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION.

UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER NORTH TEXAS THURSDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHILE A DEEP UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS. THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL RESULT IN
SURFACE LEE TROUGHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND STRONG
RETURN FLOW TO NORTH TEXAS. THE INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH BUILDING UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AFTERNOON
HIGHS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE LOWER
90S WITH LOWS IN UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

LOOKING JUST BEYOND THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS
SOLUTIONS MOVE THE UPPER TROUGH TOWARD THE EAST COAST NEXT SUNDAY AND
ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER. BOTH SOLUTIONS
ALSO INDICATE A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN FOR NORTH TEXAS ON SUNDAY.

79



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  81  71  90  73  86 /   5  10  10  20  30
WACO, TX              84  68  91  71  88 /   5   5   5  10  30
PARIS, TX             75  64  85  67  82 /   5  20  20  20  30
DENTON, TX            79  67  88  70  86 /   5  20  20  30  30
MCKINNEY, TX          79  65  87  68  85 /   5  20  10  20  30
DALLAS, TX            81  69  90  73  86 /   5  10  10  20  30
TERRELL, TX           81  67  89  70  85 /   5  10  10  20  30
CORSICANA, TX         82  69  90  71  85 /   5   5   5  10  30
TEMPLE, TX            84  67  91  70  84 /  10   5   5  10  40
MINERAL WELLS, TX     81  66  88  68  87 /  10  20  10  30  40

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

30/05





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