Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 112358
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
558 PM CST Thu Jan 11 2018


.AVIATION...
/00Z/

Minor concerns for some snow flurries at DFW/DAL/and GKY before
01z, but do not feel it will affect aviation at these airports.
The more major concern is the very gusty NW winds 20-25 kts with a
few gusts expected to continue to, or in excess of 30 knots
through mid-late evening with 925mb winds continuing between 40-50
knots. Both the low level cold advection and surface pressure
gradient will weaken toward 12Z Friday with wind speeds lessening.
Both Bowie and Bonham cornerposts will be limited tonight due to
the very gusty NW winds occurring.

Low VFR cigs AOB FL040 will continue at DFW/DAL/and GKY through
01z, before we see multi-scattered cloud decks in wake of the
vigorous shortwave trough passing east across the airports.
Otherwise, clearing skies with NNW winds diminishing to between
10-15 knots will be the rule beyond 12z Friday, as strong
subsidence occurs in behind the mid level trough. Winds will fall
below 10 knots by 00z Saturday and beyond.

For Waco regional, similar trends are expected with VFR cigs
scattering by 01-0130z. I have continued the gusty NW winds with
speeds similar to the DFW Metro airports as cold low level thermal
advection and a tight surface pressure gradient continue to drive
gusty winds, especially this evening.

05/

&&


.SHORT TERM... /Issued 331 PM CST Thu Jan 11 2018/
/Tonight/

Cold and blustery conditions will occur tonight in the
wake of the strong front that moved through today. The upper level
trough will be exiting the region by Friday morning, but a chance
for scattered light snow will continue through the evening hours
to the east of a line from Gainesville to Fort Worth to Corsicana.
It is possible a band could produce more moderate snow with small
accumulations, and we will monitor trends through the remainder
of the afternoon and evening hours. Winter weather advisory will
be remain for now, yet may be cancelled early unless the band
becomes more convective in nature.

The skies will gradually clear from west to east overnight but
wind speeds will remain strong at 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 30
mph. Overnight lows will drop into the 20s areawide, but wind
chill values will be in the teens and 20s.

JLDunn


&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 331 PM CST Thu Jan 11 2018/
(Friday through Thursday)

A relatively quiet weekend remains in store for North and Central
Texas, as today`s system is quickly shunted eastward. Cold high
pressure settles into the region, leaving us with sunshine and
colder than normal temperatures. High temperatures for the next
few days will be in the 40s, with Saturday`s highs not getting out
of the 30s near the Red River. Moisture will attempt to return on
Monday, with the next low chance for rain occurring late Monday
or early Tuesday. Compared to yesterday`s model run(s), the
associated short wave trough is much weaker today, but may be
enough to squeeze out some light rain. However, this is in the
form of a 20-30 PoP, and will mainly affect areas to the south of
Interstate 20.

Later next week is even more challenging. Starting with the
positives: the GFS and ECMWF are in relative agreement in the
general pattern of of a strong low over the East Coast and general
ridging in the central states. For the negatives: there are some
major differences in short waves moving through the ridge.
Additionally, the ensemble members have a wide range of short
wave trough locations, strength, and therefore sensible weather.
The ECMWF has a fairly potent low in the central plains, while the
deterministic GFS has a series of ripples moving through the
northwest flow. Have therefore kept the idea of low chances for
rain late in the forecast period. Plenty of time with this
forecast to get the details on day 6-7.

Fox

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    23  45  26  40  24 /  20   0   0   0   0
Waco                26  48  27  43  23 /  10   0   0   0   0
Paris               22  42  25  38  22 /  20   0   0   0   0
Denton              20  44  24  38  22 /  10   0   0   0   0
McKinney            22  42  25  38  22 /  20   0   0   0   0
Dallas              26  44  27  40  24 /  20   0   0   0   0
Terrell             25  44  25  41  22 /  20   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           26  45  26  41  23 /  20   0   0   0   0
Temple              28  51  28  45  24 /  10   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       21  46  23  39  20 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until midnight CST tonight for TXZ091>095-100>107-
115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.

&&

$$

05/82



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