Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 091718 AAC
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1218 PM CDT WED JUL 9 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNS...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE METROPLEX.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY ALONG A
LINE FROM 40 MILES SOUTH OF KSPS /WICHITA FALLS/ TO JUST NORTH OF
/KTKI/ MCKINNEY TO JUST SOUTH OF KJXI /GILMER/ AS OF 17Z. THIS
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO START TO LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH THURSDAY
MORNING. WITH THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMING UNCAPPED THIS
AFTERNOON...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR NEAR
AND NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH EARLY EVENING...WITH ISOLATED
STORMS POSSIBLE FARTHER SOUTH. LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS WILL
ACCOMPANY SOME OF THE STORMS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOOON.
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE AFTER 00Z...BUT ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO EXTEND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS NORTHEAST OF A K0F2
/BOWIE/ TO KTYR /TYLER/ LINE. HAVE LEFT VCTS IN THE METROPLEX TAF
SITES FOR THE 21Z-00Z PERIOD. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH
SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS.

58

&&

.UPDATE...
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO EXPAND POPS FURTHER SOUTH A BIT AND
INCREASE POPS IN THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES WHERE IT IS CURRENTLY
RAINING. THE 12Z FWD SOUNDING SHOWS MOISTURE HAS INCREASED IN THE
MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WITH PWATS RISING TO AROUND 1.45
INCHES. ASIDE FROM CONVECTIVE FOCUS ALONG THE FRONT IN THE NORTH
AND NORTHEAST TODAY...CAN ALSO EXPECT SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION AGAIN...MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW THE REGION WILL BE UNCAPPED AND UNSTABLE AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON BUT THERE WILL NOT BE TOO MUCH INSTABILITY WITH CAPE
VALUES LESS THAN 1000 J/KG....THEREFORE AM NOT EXPECTING
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER BUT GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING WILL BE A
HAZARD WITH ANY STORMS.

OTHERWISE...MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS AT THIS TIME TO HOURLY TRENDS
BUT HAVE NOT ADJUSTED AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.

82/JLD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 223 AM CDT WED JUL 9 2014/
AN UPPER LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN A POSITION OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS AND EASTERN CANADA FOR MOST OF THIS FORECAST WHILE A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS POSITIONED OVER THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES...SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES.

THE RESULTING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO SINK
DOWN INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY TODAY WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE NORTH OF A GRAHAM TO ATHENS LINE...MAINLY
THIS AFTERNOON. AFTERWARD...THERE IS LITTLE OPPORTUNITY FOR
CONVECTION UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEK.

LOW LEVEL PARTIAL THICKNESSES WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT
WILL INCREASE ABOUT 10 DM GOING INTO NEXT WEEK. AREA HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS THEN WE WILL SEE MORE UPPER 90S AND 100S ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS THIS WEEKEND AND THE FIRST OF
NEXT WEEK.   75



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  97  77  98  76  99 /  30  30   5   5   5
WACO, TX              95  74  97  73  97 /  10  10   5   5  10
PARIS, TX             90  73  94  73  95 /  50  40  10  10  10
DENTON, TX            96  75  98  74  99 /  30  30   5   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          96  76  96  75  97 /  30  30   5   5   5
DALLAS, TX            97  77  98  77  99 /  30  30   5   5   5
TERRELL, TX           97  76  98  74  97 /  20  20  10  10  10
CORSICANA, TX         95  74  96  73  97 /  20  20   5  10  10
TEMPLE, TX            96  74  97  73  97 /  10  10   5  10  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     98  74  99  73  99 /  20  20   5   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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