Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 240251 AAC

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
951 PM CDT Sun Oct 23 2016

Light rain continues across parts of Central Texas moving east
this evening. Will continue with a 20 percent chance for rain in
parts of our Central Texas counties with a mention of sprinkles
elsewhere through the night. Made some minor changes to overnight
lows and updated hourly trends.




/ISSUED 637 PM CDT Sun Oct 23 2016/
00 UTC TAF Cycle

Concerns---Virga overnight into Monday morning. MVFR ceiling
potential on Monday morning.

For the DFW Metroplex TAF sites---Mid-level clouds will continue
to develop across North TX as a shortwave lifts northward around
the western periphery of a mid-level ridge parked across the SE
U.S. While the mid and upper levels have moistened quite a bit,
the low levels remain too parched for precipitation at the TAF
sites. This trend should continue through the overnight hours.
Virga, however, may result in some light to occasionally moderate
turbulence below FL150. With regards to the MVFR ceiling
potential, most hi-resolution model guidance suggests that the
probability is low. In addition, the low level wind field appears
to be too weak to support rapid transport of moisture this far
north. As a result, I`ve removed the mention of MVFR ceilings at
the Metroplex, but I`ll keep an eye on observational trends and
the latest model guidance. Winds will generally remain southerly
at around 10 to 15 knots through the entire 00 UTC TAF cycle.

For the Waco TAF site---Mid and upper level cloudiness will
persist through the entire 00 UTC TAF cycle. The lower levels of
the atmosphere should result in rain-free conditions, though virga
may result in some light to moderate turbulence in the mid-levels
of the atmosphere. The potential for MVFR ceilings is a little
higher at the Waco TAF site compared to the Metroplex. The best
potential for MVFR cigs, however, will likely remain further west,
near an KLZZ-KGOP line. For now, I will TEMPO MVFR ceilings
around FL025 early Monday morning between 10 and 14 UTC. I will
closely re-examine this potential at the 06 UTC TAF issuance.
Outside of the brief window for MVFR cigs, VFR should prevail.



A few locations in our southwest counties have reported light rain
or drizzle with the reflectivity being detected on areas radars.
The rain is being aided by a disturbance moving northeast across
the same area and sufficient saturation down into the lower levels
of the atmosphere is now allowing precipitation to reach the
ground. Have updated the forecast to include a 20 percent chance
for rain tonight south and west of an area from Comanche to Glen
Rose to Waco to Cameron. Over the next few hours will evaluate if
this area needs to be expanded farther north and east. For now,
have left the mention of sprinkles everywhere overnight, but may
be remove this mention with the next update depending on trends.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 234 PM CDT Sun Oct 23 2016/
Quiet weather is on tap for the entire week. Currently, a
shortwave disturbance in the southern jet stream was moving across
Northeast Mexico and will continue lifting northeast across our
neck of the woods late tonight into early Monday. This system will
continue to be `moisture-starved`, sans high level moisture above
500mb currently.

High resolution short term models do forecast saturation down
through 700mb overnight/early Monday. The bulk of any light radar
echoes are expected to be in the form of virga (rainfall that
evaporates before making it to the ground) by sunrise Monday,
however we cannot rule a rogue drop or two reaching the ground. I
will add `isolated sprinkles` to the Monday morning forecast with
no measurable rainfall expected. Otherwise, persistent south
winds 10 to 15 mph will help Gulf moisture surge northward through
Tuesday. With upper ridging building in early this week, the only
change the next 48-60 hours will be an increase of humidity to go
along with warm and breezy conditions with highs in the lower 80s.

We are still expecting a system around mid week, or more
precisely, later Wednesday into Thursday morning to move east-
southeast across the Central U.S. However, models have continued
to dampen the upper trough and stall the surface front from East-
Central Oklahoma into the Ozarks/ArkLaTex. With forcing mechanisms
both at the surface and aloft being held north of the area, we
have gone ahead and removed low convective chances along the Red
River Valley. This was our one hope for at least some low rain
chances, but now that appears very doubtful.

The mid week system moves east away from the area later on
Thursday. In wake of the departing shortwave, upper ridging
increases across the Southern Plains once again. Our rain chances
will remain nil with breezy and warm conditions continuing through
next weekend. High temperatures will be 10 to 15 degrees above
normal with highs generally in the lower to middle 80s, with
overnight lows varying from the upper 50s to middle 60s. Our next
shot of rain will be likely in the 8-10 day range of the extended



Dallas-Ft. Worth    66  82  64  82  65 /  10   5   0   0   5
Waco                66  82  61  83  62 /  20   5   0   0   5
Paris               57  82  56  81  60 /   5   5   0   5   5
Denton              60  80  60  80  61 /  10   5   0   5   5
McKinney            61  80  60  80  61 /  10   5   0   0   5
Dallas              65  83  64  82  65 /  10   5   0   0   5
Terrell             61  80  60  82  62 /  10   5   0   0   5
Corsicana           63  82  61  82  62 /  10   5   0   0   5
Temple              64  83  61  82  61 /  20   5   0   0   5
Mineral Wells       60  82  60  81  60 /  10   5   0   5   5




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