Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 310450 AAA
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1150 PM CDT TUE AUG 30 2016

.AVIATION...
Earlier convection has ceased and anticipate the remainder of the
overnight hours to remain quiet with no clear mechanisms present
to force additional precipitation. High pressure aloft will
reorient itself tonight and into tomorrow across the Texas Big
Country. The resulting weak subsidence and increasing mid-level
temperatures should---to a certain degree---counteract the
plentiful moisture in the lower levels, resulting in less
afternoon thunderstorm coverage than we`ve seen in past days.
While isolated storms will blossom during peak heating hours (in
greatest concentration west of the Metroplex), the prospects for
impacts at the individual TAF sites is too low to warrant mention
of thunder in the 06Z issuances.

During the Wednesday evening period, there are some indications
that a cluster of storms may develop ahead of a southward-moving
frontal boundary in Oklahoma. Given the very weak flow in place,
however, it appears unlikely this activity would make it south of
the Red River. Better chances for showers and storms will spread
to all TAF sites Thursday afternoon as the front slides into our
region.

Otherwise, expect VFR conditions with afternoon cumulus around
FL050 and north-northeasterly winds in the 5 to 8 kt range.

Carlaw

&&

.UPDATE...
All thunderstorms had dissipated or moved out of the forecast
area as of 940 PM. We don`t expect any storms to redevelop
overnight, but isolated showers or sprinkles will be possible
generally west of the Interstate 35 corridor through late
evening.

Other than lowering pops and removing thunder, the only other
change necessary with this update will be to adjust hourly
temp/dew points to reflect the current trends.

79

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 PM CDT TUE AUG 30 2016/
Scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed this afternoon
within the moist and uncapped environment that continues to
overspread North and Central TX. With no focusing mechanism for
initial convection, initiation has been sporadic and scattered as
expected. Any resulting outflow boundaries should be capable of
easily initiating new storms through the early evening as
activity slowly shifts westward. Lightning and some gusty
downburst winds can be expected with any stronger cells.

The upper ridge centered across southern MO and northern AR will
continue drifting slowly southwestward toward North TX tonight and
Wednesday but will weaken in the process. This seems to be one
reason why isolated convection has been able to develop in these
areas this afternoon as the ridge`s associated subsidence has not
been sufficient to suppress the weak ascent from buoyancy and low-
level convergence. A similar setup should be in place across North
and Central TX on Wednesday as the ridge continues to shift
southwestward. While convection likely won`t be completely
suppressed Wednesday afternoon, coverage should be quite a bit
less than what we`ve seen on Monday and Tuesday.

The highest chance for storms for the next few days will be on
Thursday. A subtle upper-level disturbance will move southward
out of weak meridional flow through the Central Plains dragging a
very weak front towards North TX in the process. While the
temperature/moisture gradient along the front will be practically
unidentifiable, the subtle wind shift, and therefore increasing
low-level convergence, can ill afford to be overlooked. Would
expect quite a bit of convection to develop in the vicinity of
this boundary Thursday afternoon, but there is still some question
as to how far south this convergent axis will be located. Areas
generally along and north of I-20 should see the highest coverage
of afternoon storms.

As deeper troughing takes hold of the eastern CONUS heading toward
the Labor Day weekend, the front will get a reinforcing shot of
slightly cooler and much drier air pushed southward from the
northeast. A sharp moisture gradient should exist across the area
Friday and Saturday afternoon with locations to the northeast such
as Paris seeing PWs drop well below 1" while southwestern
locations like Temple/Killeen will have PWs around 2". Along the
axis of deeper moisture and low-level convergence draped roughly
from the TX Panhandle towards Houston, scattered afternoon storms
will be possible on both Friday and Saturday. Temperatures should
be a couple degrees cooler area-wide each day.

Sunday looks to be mostly dry at this time as the upper ridge is
expected to build back northward across much of the eastern US.
However, a substantial trough should take shape across much of the
western half of the country by early next week which will set
the stage for low rain chances to return to the forecast. Strong
south flow will quickly allow moisture to return to the area by
Labor day with PWs exceeding seasonal normals once gain. Isolated
to scattered thunderstorms will be possible mostly across Central
TX Monday afternoon and evening but would not expect a washout of
any holiday weekend plans at this point.

-Stalley



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    77  95  77  93  75 /  10  20  20  40  20
Waco                75  92  75  93  74 /  10  10  10  30  20
Paris               73  93  73  88  70 /  10  20  20  40  20
Denton              72  91  72  90  71 /  10  20  20  40  20
McKinney            74  92  74  90  72 /  10  20  20  40  20
Dallas              78  95  78  93  76 /  10  20  20  40  20
Terrell             74  92  74  91  73 /  10  20  10  40  20
Corsicana           76  94  76  92  75 /  10  10  10  30  20
Temple              73  92  74  93  73 /  10  10  10  30  20
Mineral Wells       72  92  72  90  71 /  10  20  20  40  20

&&

.FWD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

90/79


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