Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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097
FXUS64 KFWD 211730 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1230 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.AVIATION...

CONCERNS...MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS AND RETURN OF CONVECTION.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL KEEP WINDS NORTHERLY AND
CIGS MVFR TODAY. OVERNIGHT...THE HIGH CENTER SHIFTS EASTWARD AND
WINDS WILL VEER AND BECOME EASTERLY. THIS PATTERN WILL ALSO
PROVIDE FOR FALLING CIGS TONIGHT.

THIS MORNINGS CONVECTIVE COMPLEX HAS MOVED EAST OUT OF THE
AREA....BUT SOME LINGERING LIGHT/MODERATE SHOWERS REMAIN AROUND
THE METROPLEX AND NORTH TO THE RED RIVER. THUS THERE MAY BE A FEW
BRIEF PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN THIS AFTERNOON...BUT DO
NOT EXPECT ANY THUNDER AS INSTABILITY HAS BECOME WEAK.

MVFR CIGS SHOULD HOLD ON ALL DAY...THEN TRANSITION TO IFR CIGS AT
KACT EARLY EVENING THEN AFTER 06Z ACROSS THE METROPLEX. HAVE ADDED
SOME 3-5SM BR AT ALL SITES LATE TONIGHT THROUGH DAYBREAK. THE
METROPLEX COULD SEE MVFR CIGS BY 16Z...BUT KACT MAY STAY IFR
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING.

AS FOR CONVECTION...FRIDAY MORNING IS OUR BEST GUESS AND WILL ONLY
ADD VCSH 11-16Z UNTIL HIGHER CONFIDENCE DEVELOPS ON TIMING AND
AREAL COVERAGE. THUNDER IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY. 75

&&

.UPDATE...
CONVECTION EARLY THIS MORNING DEVELOPED NEAR THE 850MB FRONT
WHERE SOME WEAK FRONTOGENESIS FORCING ALLOWED CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP AND PROSPER WITH A MODERATE AMOUNT OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY
AVAILABLE. THIS INSTABILITY HAS SINCE BEEN EXHAUSTED...THE
FRONTOGENESIS FORCING HAS WEAKENED AND SHIFTED SOUTH...AND THERE
IS LIKELY DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION ALOFT. THEREFORE RAIN
CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE MINIMAL...WITH BEST CHANCES LIKELY
OVER THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE LIGHT
WITH NO SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

12Z MODEL GUIDANCE IS COMING IN WEAKER WITH A PASSING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH TONIGHT...AND WITH THE AIRMASS WORKED OVER FROM MORNING
CONVECTION THERE WILL BE LITTLE INSTABILITY AVAILABLE. HAVE
LOWERED POPS TONIGHT AREAWIDE.-RA TO RA

OTHERWISE HAVE MADE MINOR CHANGES TO TEMPS/DEWPOINTS OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS.

THE MAIN FOCUS IN THE FORECAST WILL BE ON THE WEEKEND...WHERE
PARAMETERS ARE LINING UP FOR A SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS...WITH THE NORTHWEST CWA LIKELY IN THE
BULLSEYE.

TR.92

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015/
COOL AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE REGION TODAY BEHIND A
COLD FRONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY COOL FOR LATE MAY WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 60S IN THE WEST TO THE
MIDDLE 70S IN THE SOUTHEAST. SINCE NORTH TEXAS WILL BE IN THE COOL
AIR THROUGH THE DAY...STORMS THAT FORM TODAY WILL BE ELEVATED AND
OVERALL SHOULD STAY BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. HOWEVER...A FEW STORMS
COULD CONTAIN SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. THERE IS STILL A
POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE STORMS TO PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL
SINCE THE DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT IS SHALLOW. ANY
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL COULD EASILY RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL TEMPORARILY DECREASE EARLY THIS EVENING
WITH BRIEF RIDGING ALOFT. HOWEVER...STORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE
FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES
EAST AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ON SHORE IN THE
WEST. THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW WILL RESULT IN INCREASING LARGE
SCALE LIFT AND DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS
TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED BY ALL
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS THROUGH SUNDAY WHICH WILL KEEP NORTH TEXAS IN MODERATE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. INSTABILITY AND DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE WHICH WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS
THE REGION WITH A POTENTIAL FOR NOT ONLY HEAVY RAINFALL BUT SOME
SEVERE STORMS. WE WILL NOT ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME
SINCE THE EVENT IS STILL 2 DAYS AWAY BUT IT IS VERY POSSIBLE THAT
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL NEED TO BE ISSUED IN THE NEXT 2 DAYS.

RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SHOULD LINGER ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND
ABUNDANT INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE. HOWEVER...THE LARGE SCALE
DYNAMICS SHOULD BE LESS PRONOUNCED NEXT WEEK WHICH SHOULD KEEP
CONVECTION MORE SCATTERED.

79



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  66  62  73  65  83 /  40  20  40  30  60
WACO, TX              67  62  78  66  84 /  20  20  40  30  50
PARIS, TX             68  59  73  61  79 /  50  20  30  20  40
DENTON, TX            66  61  73  65  81 /  30  20  50  30  60
MCKINNEY, TX          67  61  73  65  82 /  40  20  40  30  60
DALLAS, TX            66  62  73  67  83 /  40  20  40  30  60
TERRELL, TX           67  62  75  68  84 /  80  20  30  30  50
CORSICANA, TX         68  63  77  67  82 /  50  20  30  30  40
TEMPLE, TX            68  63  78  67  82 /  30  20  40  30  50
MINERAL WELLS, TX     65  59  74  66  79 /  30  30  50  30  60

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

75



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