Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 230827
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
327 AM CDT Tue May 23 2017

.DISCUSSION...
North and Central Texas will remain in the left exit region of a
100 knot jet this morning. The large scale lift from this feature
coupled with copious amounts of low and mid level moisture will
result in scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. The
storms will be most focused along a cold front which will move
across the entire region through the day. Surface based CAPE will
be limited today which will keep most storms well below severe
limits. However, decent mid level lapse rates will support a few
tall storms which could become marginally severe. The primary
hazard will be hail up to one inch in diameter and brief damaging
wind gusts. The best chance for strong to severe storms will be
across the southern zones where instability will be the greatest.

All storms should move southeast of the region this evening once
much drier and subsident air filters in from the northwest. Clouds
will also clear quickly overnight which, when combined with the
dry air, will allow for efficient radiational cooling. Low
temperatures Wednesday morning will range from the upper 40s in
the northwest to the middle 50s across the southern zones and
urban areas of the Metroplex.

Dry northwest flow aloft will remain in place across the Central
and Southern Plains on Wednesday as a deep upper trough digs into
the southeastern U.S. However, the cool and dry air will be very
temporary with building upper level high pressure and a return of
Gulf moisture. The upper ridge axis will translate east of the
region Thursday night as an upper trough develops across the West
Coast. Increasing low level warm air advection Friday should
result in the hottest day we have seen thus far this spring with
dewpoints in the upper 60s and lower 70s and afternoon highs in
the 90s. Some of the western zones could approach the century mark
Friday afternoon as the dryline mixes eastward and surface winds
turn to the southwest.

The hot and humid weather will continue into Saturday, but there
should be a few more clouds around which may keep temps a bit
cooler. Large scale lift will also be on the increase Saturday as
the upper trough moves into the Central and Southern Rockies.
The atmosphere should remain very capped Saturday afternoon, but a
few storms may go up on the eastward mixing dryline. Better storm
chances will arrive on Sunday with the passage of a cold front as
per the GFS and ECMWF solutions.

Precipitation chances will decrease Sunday night, but may return
to the southern zones Monday, if the cold front stalls across
South Texas as per the medium range solutions. For now we will
keep PoPs on Memorial day low and confined to locations generally
south of I-20.

79

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1221 AM CDT Tue May 23 2017/
/06Z TAFs/

Concerns...Convection overnight and MVFR cigs. FROPA on Tuesday
brings a wind shift to the northwest.

VFR conditions are expected for the next few hours but MVFR cigs
will likely return overnight. Several opportunities for
thunderstorms exist overnight but the most likely timeframe for
DFW is 06-10Z, and 10-13Z at KACT. Additional adjustments to the
convective timing will be made as needed through the night. Some
of these storms could be severe with strong winds and hail.

MVFR cigs are more likely after 10Z but periods of VFR may also
occur. MVFR cigs may become more widespread Tuesday morning, even
as a pre-frontal trough moves through the region. A period of IFR
cigs at KACT may still be possible but confidence is not high
enough to include in the TAF. Northwest winds are expected at the
airports between 12-13Z with speeds increasing as the true front
moves through around 18-20Z. Winds of 12-16 kts with gusts of
20-25 kts are expected behind the true front, and ceilings will
increase to VFR with the true frontal passage. As an upper level
disturbance swings through the region, another round of scattered
showers and isolated storms is expected between 18-01Z.

JLDunn


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    76  55  82  60  90 /  50  10   5   0   0
Waco                76  53  83  59  90 /  50  10   5   0   0
Paris               74  51  73  53  84 /  50  10   5   0   0
Denton              74  51  79  56  89 /  50  10   5   0   0
McKinney            75  52  77  55  87 /  50  10   5   0   0
Dallas              76  56  81  61  90 /  50  10   5   0   0
Terrell             76  53  77  56  86 /  50  10   5   0   0
Corsicana           76  54  81  59  88 /  40  10   5   0   0
Temple              77  53  83  60  90 /  50  10   5   0   0
Mineral Wells       74  50  82  57  92 /  50  10   5   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

26/79



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