Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 310343
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
943 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
SPOTTY WEAK ECHOES ON RADAR ARE A RESULT PATCHY VIRGA TREKKING
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THIS EVENING. WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE ENOUGH
MOISTENING TO ALLOW FOR OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN TO REACH THE GROUND
AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND THE CURRENT POPS REFLECT THIS WELL. BETTER
CHANCES FOR RAIN ARE STILL EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WILL BE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

30

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 541 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015/
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT WITH CIGS GENERALLY ABOVE FL150.
LIGHT EAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL. MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
ARRIVE BY MORNING WITH CIGS DROPPING TO NEAR FL100. A VERY DRY
LAYER OF AIR WILL PERSIST BETWEEN 5-10 THOUSAND FT TOMORROW WHICH
MEANS ANY PRECIPITATION ALOFT WILL BE PRIMARILY VIRGA ACCOMPANIED
BY SOME TURBULENCE. ANY RAIN DROPS THAT CAN SURVIVE THE TRIP
THROUGH THE DRY AIR AND REACH THE SURFACE WILL BE FEW AND FAR
BETWEEN WITH NO IMPACTS TO AVIATION OPERATIONS...SO WILL LEAVE
RAIN OUT OF TAFS UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHEN DRY AIR IS
FINALLY WORKED THROUGH AND COLUMN SATURATES.

BELOW 5000 FT MOIST RETURN FLOW WILL ORGANIZE AND BRING MVFR CIGS
INTO THE TAF SITES FROM SW TO NE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CIGS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO LOWER TO IFR AFTER SUNSET SATURDAY WITH THE AID
OF RAINFALL AND CONTINUED LOW LEVEL MOIST/WARM ADVECTION. WINDS
WILL BECOME MORE SELY AND INCREASE TO 10-15KT BY SUNSET.

TR.92


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015/
A WET WEEKEND IS STILL IN STORE FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS...BUT
A HEAVY WASHOUT - OR MAJOR LAKE LEVEL ASSISTANCE - IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER TEXAS TODAY WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
TONIGHT...PLACING OUR REGION IN A MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL
FLOW REGIME AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW NOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
MID LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS
NORTH TEXAS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
MAY INITIALLY BE RATHER DRY...BUT WITH MOISTURE TRANSPORT
INCREASING STEADILY...EXPECT TO SEE LIGHT RAIN BEGIN TO SPREAD
INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT...AND OVER MOST AREAS BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS SUGGEST SLIGHTLY BETTER LIFT AND
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL COINCIDE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 BY
SATURDAY NIGHT...SO HIGHER POPS WILL PERSIST IN THESE AREAS SAT
NIGHT AND EARLY SUN...WITH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS LINGERING IN THE
EAST ON SUNDAY. WHILE THE PRIMARY UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN TO OUR
WEST NEAR BAJA CA THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...A STRONG SHORTWAVE IN THE
NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE FLOW WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...PROVIDING SUBSIDENCE TO N TX AND EFFECTIVELY SHUTTING OFF
THE PRECIPITATION FROM WEST TO EAST BY LATE AFTERNOON.

WITH NO APPRECIABLE CAPE TO WORK WITH...DON`T EXPECT ANY THUNDER
ACCOMPANYING THE RAINFALL THROUGH SUN. QPF AMOUNTS IN FACT WILL
PROBABLY NOT BE OVERLY IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM...GIVEN THE
LACK OF MAJOR CONVECTION OR STRONG LIFT. WOULD EXPECT MOST AREAS
TO PICK UP LESS THAN 1 INCH WITH THIS PARTICULAR EVENT.

WE`LL SEE A RESPITE FROM ANY PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE EARLY PART
OF THE WEEK...BUT THE UPPER LOW (AND ASSOCIATED LIFT) TO OUR SW
WILL EVENTUALLY EJECT EASTWARD AND SKIRT CENTRAL TEXAS LATE TUE
THROUGH WED. AM NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT OF ANY PRECIPITATION IN OUR
AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT DID HOLD ONTO SMALL
POPS FOR OUR SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST ZONES TUE AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY.

WITH NORTHWEST FLOW RE-ASSERTING ITSELF...THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK
SHOULD REMAIN RAIN FREE...WITH TEMPERATURES HOLDING BELOW SEASONAL
NORMS INTO NEXT SATURDAY.

66



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  42  52  48  54  29 /  10  60  90  60  10
WACO, TX              42  54  51  58  32 /  10  60  80  70  10
PARIS, TX             38  51  44  53  27 /  10  40  90  70  10
DENTON, TX            41  49  45  53  28 /  20  70  90  60  10
MCKINNEY, TX          39  51  46  54  28 /  10  60  90  60  10
DALLAS, TX            42  52  48  55  30 /  10  60  90  60  10
TERRELL, TX           40  54  49  57  30 /  10  50  90  70  10
CORSICANA, TX         41  55  51  60  31 /  10  50  80  70  10
TEMPLE, TX            42  55  52  60  33 /  10  60  70  70  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     41  49  46  52  28 /  20  90  80  50  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




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