Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
FXUS64 KFWD 240344 AAB
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
944 PM CST Thu Feb 23 2017
A cold front extended from a low over southeastern Kansas
southwest through southwestern Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle
at 9 PM. This front will move into the northwestern part of North
Texas after midnight. This front will move to near a Paris to
Dallas to Killeen line by 6 AM Friday. Winds have backed around to
the south and south-southeast this evening but will veer around
the southwest and west as the cold front approaches. Winds will
then shift to the northwest with frontal passage. Have adjusted
winds speeds up a little for this evening and adjusted the timing
of the front slightly based on the latest high resolution models.
This also prompted some minor adjustments to the overnight lows.
Updates have been sent.
/ISSUED 549 PM CST Thu Feb 23 2017/
00 UTC TAF Cycle
Concerns---FROPA timing. Otherwise, VFR.
Breezy southerly conditions will continue over the next 1-2
hours through about sunset. Thereafter, gusts above 20 knots
should cease with generally southerly winds. Winds may back
slightly towards the southeast as the dryline retreats for an hour
or two before veering with the approach of a precipitation-free
cold front. Patchy blowing dust, currently observed along and
northwest a MAF to ABI to LAW line should remain to the northwest
of area terminals with perhaps some very light haze around sunset.
Significant obscuration to ceiling or visibility are NOT
Otherwise, the cold front across southern KS will slide southward
towards North and Central TX terminals through the overnight hours.
Winds will veer to the west ahead of the front before becoming
northwesterly at around 10-12 knots a few hours after the front`s
passage. FROPA is expected across Metroplex TAF sites around 12
UTC with FROPA closer to 14 UTC at the Waco Regional Airport.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 PM CST Thu Feb 23 2017/
Gusty south-southwest winds today have combined with record and
near record high temperatures for a warm, windy, and dry day
across North and Central Texas. DFW has once again broken a daily
record in February today with a current reading of 88 degrees at 3
pm and it`s highly possible we could reach 90 degrees before it`s
all said and done. The previous record high was 86 degrees in
1933. Waco`s record high is 89 degrees in 1996 and they currently
sit at 83 degrees, so chances are they will not break their
record. Out in our western counties, lower 90s were common and
elevated to high fire weather conditions will continue through 5-6
The record warmth will be short-lived however, as a strong cold
front currently entering northern Kansas surges across the Red
River Valley during the pre-dawn hours Friday before clearing our
Central Texas counties by midday Friday. It will be brisk and much
cooler, though not overly cold with highs in the 60s north to
lower 70s south. All the upper support for precipitation will be
well to the north, so this will be a dry frontal passage with
elevated fire concerns once again for at least the western two-
thirds of the CWA, where lower humidity values will combine with
occasionally gusty north winds around 15 mph.
Friday night will be definitely coat weather, as north winds of
10 to 15 mph continue. Lows by Saturday morning will range from
near freezing northwest to the lower 40s across Central Texas. A
surface high will settle across Eastern Oklahoma and the Ozarks
on Saturday with dry zonal flow aloft. Plenty of sunshine can be
expected with highs mainly in the 50s. South winds will return
Saturday night and become breezy on Sunday, as temperatures
moderate in advance of yet another fast-moving upper disturbance
to the west and the surface high shifts east of our area.
WAA in advance of the late weekend disturbance will rapidly surge
especially elevated moisture northward with surface dew points
only rising back into the 50s across Central Texas by Sunday
afternoon. With steepening lapse rates aloft and isentropic ascent
just above the surface, isolated to scattered thunderstorms are
expected to develop within an area of large-scale ascent. It
appears the best moisture and storm coverage Sunday afternoon into
Sunday night will be along and east of I-35/35W. Sounding
profiles indicate much of this convection could be elevated in
nature due to an elevated mixed layer (or capping inversion aloft)
anchored around 800mb. That said, our far E/SE counties may see
warm and moist enough surface conditions for surface-based
storms. That said, with strong 50 knot westerly 0-6km bulk shear
that a few strong to marginally severe storms cannot completely be
rule out across our east/southeast counties Sunday night. We will
continue to monitor this time frame closely in the next few days.
The late weekend shortwave and associated Pacific cold front will
move through the area Monday morning with only isolated rain
chances remaining across the far eastern counties Monday morning.
Temperatures will be mild Monday with highs mostly in the 70s, as
little CAA will be associated with the Pacific cold front.
Surface cyclogenesis ahead of yet another shortwave moving
progressively east within zonal flow aloft occurs Monday night
and Tuesday with highs on Tuesday warming well into the 70s with
lows Tuesday night in the 50s with south breezes continuing. The
best moisture should remain across East Texas with the best
forcing occurring well north of our area, across Kansas and
Northern Oklahoma. Can`t rule out a few stray showers in the
eastern counties, but nothing of significance.
Otherwise, another brisk and cool day on Wednesday with highs 55
to 65 degrees with brisk north winds behind yet another cold
front arriving by Wednesday morning. A confluent split-flow
pattern over the Southern Plains next Thursday through Saturday
should result in dry and near seasonable conditions with highs
mostly in the 60s.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 51 68 37 57 40 / 5 0 0 0 0
Waco 52 72 37 60 40 / 5 0 0 0 0
Paris 53 67 36 55 36 / 5 5 5 0 0
Denton 47 66 33 55 37 / 5 0 0 0 0
McKinney 50 67 35 56 36 / 5 0 0 0 0
Dallas 52 69 38 57 41 / 5 0 0 0 0
Terrell 54 69 38 57 39 / 5 0 0 0 0
Corsicana 56 71 40 59 41 / 5 0 0 0 0
Temple 53 74 38 61 41 / 5 0 0 0 0
Mineral Wells 46 67 33 57 37 / 0 0 0 0 0